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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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JLM

Welp, its that time of year again. The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season will begin on June 1st. Although one thing is different this year, routine Tropical Weather Outlooks will begin on May 15th at the same time the Eastern Pacific season starts. I will list the names, what the current CSU predictions are, and what i expect out of this season.

2021 Season Names:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Elsa
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Colorado State Predictions
Named Storms: 17
Hurricanes: 8
Major Hurricanes: 4

What i expect:
Named Storms: 16-18
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major Hurricanes: 2-4

The higher end numbers are the worst case scenario, but definitely possible given the uncertainty in long range models. The ENSO stage looks quite uncertain going into peak season, we could be anywhere from a weak El Nino to a weak La Nina. I think we will end up at neutral by peak season. Until something begins to change, thats what im sticking with. 
As for track potential, i think the most favorable tracks this season look to be mostly out to sea, but there probably will be some that scrape/threaten the eastern seaboard of the US. I also think the Western Caribbean and Southwest Gulf of Mexico will be a hot bed this season for tropical cyclone activity. 

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JLM

With regards to the 2020 season, that was an exceptionally active season and WILL NOT happen again this season. By the time Sally had tore up our roof, i was done with the hurricanes at that point, which is why i stopped posting as much for the end of last season. My last post was on Zeta's impacts, and i know that Iota was a Category 5 and i never posted anything about it, i am sorry about that. We are in a new season now, and everyone needs to be prepared for a season like last year, every single year. Prepare like you did for 2020 and keep doing that in the future.

Another thing worth mentioning is the World Meteorological Organization has tossed out the greek naming list, and was replaced with another list. The names on the new "backup" list are easier to pronounce and easier to spell for most. One reason why they tossed out the Greek names is because there were too many names that sounded the same (ex: Beta, Zeta, Eta, Theta...), another reason being that people had trouble pronouncing the names, which affects messaging to the public and warning people of the incoming storm.

The text color code for storms and areas of interest and invests will be laid out below.

Color Code
AOI (Low Development Chance), AOI (Medium Development Chance), AOI (High Development Chance), Investigation Area (Invest), Subtropical Depression, Subtropical Storm, Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Category 1 Hurricane, Category 2 Hurricane, Category 3 Hurricane, Category 4 Hurricane, Category 5 Hurricane.

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Palmaceae

One thing I don't miss about living in Florida!

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JLM

2020 has just been confirmed to have tied a very big record with the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The National Hurricane Center just released the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Zeta, and they found that Zeta made landall on the Louisiana coastline as a Category 3 hurricane instead of a Category 2, therefore tieing 2005's record of 7 major hurricanes in one season. Here were the other major hurricanes:
Laura - Category 4
Teddy - Category 4
Delta - Category 4
Epsilon - Category 3
Zeta - Category 3
Eta - Category 4
Iota - Category 5

Edited by JLM

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NOT A TA
17 hours ago, JLM said:

By the time Sally had tore up our roof

Irma tore mine up in '17,  took 3 years and a law suit to finally get the insurance company to pay. They started with "Sorry sir, that damage doesn't meet your deductible."

I'm currently rebuilding the soffits so I can hopefully get a new roof installed before this years season gets into full swing.

 

 

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JLM
3 minutes ago, NOT A TA said:

Irma tore mine up in '17,  took 3 years and a law suit to finally get the insurance company to pay. They started with "Sorry sir, that damage doesn't meet your deductible."

I'm currently rebuilding the soffits so I can hopefully get a new roof installed before this years season gets into full swing.

 

 

We never got insurance to pay for ours, or else we would have already gotten ours replaced. Finally found a roofing company that does financing, might still go after the insurance company to pay us back the cost. The guy that did the inspection said there were only a few shingles missing. Dude seriously must need extremely thick perscription lenses, because there are shingles missing all over the roof, and he also didnt look under the tarps which was where the worst damage was. Not only did he fail to do the inspection correctly, but he also took 2 weeks to get the process going, and in the end we never got it payed for. So, we are probably going after the company to get it payed for then we are dropping them and switching to something else.

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bubba

Any discussion of Hurricanes and Florida must include Herbert's Box 1 and 2!

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NOT A TA
4 hours ago, bubba said:

Any discussion of Hurricanes and Florida must include Herbert's Box 1 and 2!

Thanks bubba, I learned something new today. I'd never heard of the boxes.

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JLM
5 hours ago, bubba said:

Any discussion of Hurricanes and Florida must include Herbert's Box 1 and 2!

Interesting! Learn something new everyday.

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JLM

Statistically when coastal cities should be affected again by a tropical cyclone. 
I sort of do feel like there is a bias among the data as to which state has a certain amount of data. While Florida covers most of the Eastern US coastline, i feel like there could be more in states like Texas, Georgia, New Jersey, and Maine possibly.

*This is just a statistical average and does not mean something will occur within the given time period*

Texas
Brownsville - Before the end of 2025
Corpus Christi - Before the end of 2024
Port O' Connor - Before the end of 2024
Freeport - Before the end of 2023
Galveston - Before the end of 2023
Port Arthur - Before the end of 2023

Louisiana
Cameron - Before the end of 2023
Intracoastal City - Before the end of 2023
Morgan City - Before the end of 2023
Grand Isle - Before the end of 2023
New Orleans - Before the end of 2023

Mississippi
Bay St Louis - Before the end of 2023
Biloxi - Before the end of 2023
Pascagoula - Before the end of 2023

Alabama
Dauphin Island - Before the end of 2023
Mobile - Before the end of 2023
Gulf Shores - Before the end of 2023

Florida
Pensacola - Before the end of 2023
Ft Walton Beach - Before the end of 2023
Panama City Beach - Before the end of 2023
Apalachicola - Before the end of 2022
Panacea - Before the end of 2022
Steinhatchee - Before the end of 2022
Cedar Key - Before the end of 2023
Homosassa - Before the end of 2023
Spring Hill - Before the end of 2022
Tarpon Springs - Before the end of 2022
Tampa - Before the end of 2022
Sarasota - Before the end of 2023
Port Charlotte - Before the end of 2023
Fort Myers - Before the end of 2023
Naples - Before the end of 2023
Chokoloskee - Before the end of 2023
Key West - Before the end of 2023
Marathon - Before the end of 2023
Key Largo - Before the end of 2023
Homestead - Before the end of 2023
Miami - Before the end of 2022
Fort Lauderdale - Before the end of 2023
Delray Beach - Before the end of 2023
Palm Beach - Before the end of 2023
Stuart - Before the end of 2023
Vero Beach - Before the end of 2023
Melbourne - Before the end of 2023
Cape Canaveral - Before the end of 2022
Daytona Beach - Before the end of 2023
Palm Coast - Before the end of 2023
Saint Augustine - Before the end of 2022
Jacksonville - Before the end of 2023
Fernandina Beach - Before the end of 2022

Georgia
Brunswick - Before the end of 2023
Savannah - Before the end of 2021

South Carolina
Beaufort - Before the end of 2021
Charleston - Before the end of 2023
Georgetown - Before the end of 2023
Myrtle Beach - Before the end of 2022

North Carolina 
Wilmington - Before the end of 2022
Morehead City - Before the end of 2022
Cape Hatteras - Before the end of 2022
Elizabeth City - Before the end of 2023

Virginia
Norfolk/Virginia Beach - Before the end of 2023
Exmore - Before the end of 2023

Maryland
Ocean City - Before the end of 2023

New Jersey
Atlantic City - Before the end of 2024

Rhode Island 
Providence - Before the end of 2024

Massachusetts
Cape Cod - Before the end of 2022
Boston - Due in 2023

Maine
Bangor - 8 years overdue

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bubba

Now that we have extremely precise Hurricane tracking, it makes me wonder about numerous hurcans that must have zipped up the Florida coast over the previous years without real notice. David in 1979 was an example of a killer Cape Verde that developed in late August 1979 and rampaged the Caribbean as a Category 5. It was gigantic and extremely impressive (scary when it’s coming at you!) on the TV. It was supposed to hit Miami but skirted up the Florida coast, following the Gulfstream, before downgrading and diminishing as it hit South Georgia as a minimal hurricane.

I was in the Palm Beach area after finishing my first year of law school. According to the press, this was the big one that would make us forget about 1928! This was not a hurricane that you could not notice as it touched our area and I remember winds in the neighborhood of 85 to 90 miles an hour. That stated, historically it makes me wonder just how many blows went by our area and other parts of the Florida coast following the heat of the Stream without much fanfare.

As to huracan, that is the way most native Floridian‘s called blows. it is not without history. The Carribe tribe that were indigenous to the Caribbean basin had a God, referred to as Huracan, the God of the evil wind. Can still remember my blessed grandmother “that damn huracan”!

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JLM
15 hours ago, bubba said:

Now that we have extremely precise Hurricane tracking, it makes me wonder about numerous hurcans that must have zipped up the Florida coast over the previous years without real notice. David in 1979 was an example of a killer Cape Verde that developed in late August 1979 and rampaged the Caribbean as a Category 5. It was gigantic and extremely impressive (scary when it’s coming at you!) on the TV. It was supposed to hit Miami but skirted up the Florida coast, following the Gulfstream, before downgrading and diminishing as it hit South Georgia as a minimal hurricane.

I was in the Palm Beach area after finishing my first year of law school. According to the press, this was the big one that would make us forget about 1928! This was not a hurricane that you could not notice as it touched our area and I remember winds in the neighborhood of 85 to 90 miles an hour. That stated, historically it makes me wonder just how many blows went by our area and other parts of the Florida coast following the heat of the Stream without much fanfare.

As to huracan, that is the way most native Floridian‘s called blows. it is not without history. The Carribe tribe that were indigenous to the Caribbean basin had a God, referred to as Huracan, the God of the evil wind. Can still remember my blessed grandmother “that damn huracan”!

Yall dodge a huge bullet with Hurricane Dorian in 2019, and then missed again with Isaias in 2020. Yall are gonna get a big one soon, probably within the next few years if i had to guess. Eventually, there will be a storm heading in your direction that wont have features to push it away from Florida.

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bubba

No question! South Floridian’s do not have to be rigorously warned about hurricane preparation. We have had our share and many Monsters (1926, 1928, 1935 to Andrew and Irma). Contrary to the sense that one gets, hurricanes are a phenomena that we deal with on a consistent basis and are are generally well prepared.

 

Hurricanes are difficult. That stated, they are not existential end of the world scenarios. South Florida jumps back very quickly from hurricanes. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 actually pulled us out of a recession before the rest of the country. The 1928 storm, which my grandparents went through caused incredible damage but they were back to normal in a year.

Edited by bubba
Corrupted dictation Mechanism

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Sabal_Louisiana

In 2020 the Bermuda High was unusually strong and positioned a bit farther south than usual.  Tropical storms tend to go around the High.

That kept most of the storms away from Florida and diverted them more towards the Western Gulf.

This year, the Bermuda High is expected to be weaker and closer to its usual position so many forecasters think the US SE Atlantic coast will be at higher risk this time around.

Folks in Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama are by no means in the clear, however.

Edited by Sabal_Louisiana
edit

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bubba

Trying to reason

With hurricane season

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Palmarum

Gah... here it comes again.

The statistical list above was interesting. I will have to tell my relatives in Bangor, Maine that they are overdue for one. They will probably think I'm talking about a 'Nor-Eastah'

Time to don the witch doctor gear and prepare the sacrifice for hurricane season. I'm always looking for new items for the advanced list of hurricane preparedness. I found an old group of solar pathway lights to be used indoors when power fails. Put them back outside to charge during the day.

Ryan

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PalmatierMeg

Hurricane Charley was the first major hurricane in 44 years to strike Ft. Myers/Cape Coral/Punta Gorda (since Donna in 1960). It was for sure our "Big One." A local gadfly newspaper columnist declared early in 2004 that hurricane preparedness was nothing but hooey and predicted no hurricane would strike Ft. Myers again. Readers were outraged. Months later, after Charley demolished its way from Ft. Myers Beach to Arcadia he posted a mea culpa column apologizing to readers and Mother Nature for shooting off his mouth. By the end of the year, I believe, he retired and hasn't been heard from since.

Charley was forecast to hit Tampa. It revved up to a cat 4 within hours of passing Cuba. We had shuttered the house, prepared the generator and were listening to minute-by-minute weather on the tv when the weatherman said, "Just in, Hurricane Charley has turned right and is heading directly toward us. Get to the nearest safe place, you have no time to go to a shelter." We just looked at one another.

Then the phone rang. My son living in Ft. Myers said, "Mom, you got a bullseye on your house."

"I know," I said. Then the room went dark. LCEC had shut off all power to the area to prevent fire. Charley blew in less than 30 minutes later. I didn't realize hurricanes could change direction on a dime. Not storms to be trifled with.

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JLM
20 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Hurricane Charley was the first major hurricane in 44 years to strike Ft. Myers/Cape Coral/Punta Gorda (since Donna in 1960). It was for sure our "Big One." A local gadfly newspaper columnist declared early in 2004 that hurricane preparedness was nothing but hooey and predicted no hurricane would strike Ft. Myers again. Readers were outraged. Months later, after Charley demolished its way from Ft. Myers Beach to Arcadia he posted a mea culpa column apologizing to readers and Mother Nature for shooting off his mouth. By the end of the year, I believe, he retired and hasn't been heard from since.

Charley was forecast to hit Tampa. It revved up to a cat 4 within hours of passing Cuba. We had shuttered the house, prepared the generator and were listening to minute-by-minute weather on the tv when the weatherman said, "Just in, Hurricane Charley has turned right and is heading directly toward us. Get to the nearest safe place, you have no time to go to a shelter." We just looked at one another.

Then the phone rang. My son living in Ft. Myers said, "Mom, you got a bullseye on your house."

"I know," I said. Then the room went dark. LCEC had shut off all power to the area to prevent fire. Charley blew in less than 30 minutes later. I didn't realize hurricanes could change direction on a dime. Not storms to be trifled with.

This is why they tell you if you're in the cone, or even outside of it, that people should prepare as if the hurricane is going to hit them. Sometimes forecast models dont see certain things in the atmosphere that causes a storm to move suddenly in a different direction. The same can sort of be said with Hurricane Sally, it was expected to make landall in Louisiana, models continued to show westward movement with the storm, but then models began shifting east. Once Sally had stalled, it was hard to tell which direction it would go when it started moving again, and instead of continuing its westward jog as models had previously said, it began moving north then eventually northeast after landfall. Not many people were prepared over this way, my part of the county didnt go under a Hurricane Warning until the afternoon before the storm made landfall, which gave us no time to prepare since tropical storm conditions were already setting in. Most people here thought it was going to Louisiana since most of the time before it hit, the forecasts had NOLA under the gun, but instead it made that northward turn and put Mobile/Pensacola under the gun. Things can change rapidly when it comes to these. Sally was our first hurricane experience, and i can tell you this, we wont be staying for the next one. 

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PalmatierMeg

The scary irony is that people from Tampa flooded into Arcadia in Central Florida to seek shelter. Then Charley turned right and followed the Peace River right over Arcadia as a cat. 4. Four major hurricanes criss-crossed Central FL that year.

Next year - 2005 - people in Naples fled over to Palm Beach to escape Wilma. Except Wilma turned northeast and crossed the Everglades - "Sea" of grass - to bash Palm Beach. If Mother Nature wants you, she'll find you.

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JLM
5 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

If Mother Nature wants you, she'll find you.

Couldnt be said any better than this!

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bubba

I went through Donna (1960) and Charley was a virtual return of the same! Motored right through the middle of the state! That is hard chugging...

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JLM

Welp, the Atlantic Hurricane Season has now started, not officially but it has. A non-tropical area of low pressure northeast of Bermuda is expected to retain some subtropical characteristics as it stalls northeast of Bermuda. It will then begin moving northeast into a hostile environment. This is no threat to land, but it is a reminder that Hurricane Season IS here. Chances are at 70% within 48 hours and 90% within 5 days. The first name on the list is Ana.

two_atl_5d1.png

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JLM

The NHC has not marked this area, but i do believe it has *some* potential to develop over the next few days. There is an area over the western Gulf of Mexico that does have rotation, but there is no low level rotation. This could very well end up doing what TS Bertha did last year, where it developed right before hitting the coast. At the moment its hard to say where it will go whether it develops or not, but right now it looks like the Texas Gulf Coast. Something to definitely pay attention to.

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JLM

Im going to edit the first message in this thread to put in images of the Tropical Weather Outlooks, both the 2 day and 5 day outlooks.
In other news, Invest 91L has been designated in the western Gulf of Mexico. Yeah so the Atlantic flipped the switch today apparently.

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JLM

Nevermind cant edit that, so i will post it here!

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:

two_atl_2d0.png




5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:

two_atl_5d0.png


The hope is that these images update on their own as the one i posted earlier today has.

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JLM

Dont be surprised if Invest 91L (Gulf disturbance) pulls a "Bertha" later today or tonight. Tropical Storm Bertha formed right before landfall in South Carolina last May, and i wouldnt be surprised if 91L doesnt do the same along the Texas coast. The system is developing its low level circulation, and if shower and thunderstorm activity organizes it could become a Tropical Depression or Storm before moving inland over Texas. Regardless of any development, heavy rainfall will occur over Texas and Louisiana as the soggy pattern continues in those areas.

Invest 90L will likely become a Subtropical cyclone later today or tonight, the non tropical low has increased in organization but has not yet developed Subtropical characteristics. Once the low develops these characteristics it will be named Subtropical Storm Ana, as the low is already producing winds of up to 60 mph. The low is expected to stall or move very slowly to the west southwest before getting swept away into the Northern Atlantic.

As for the rest of the tropics, everything looks to remain quiet for the next few weeks. For our current disturbances, the first two names on the list are Ana and Bill.

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JLM

Invest 91L has my attention this afternoon. Development chances up to 60% now, but it only has a short time to develop if its going to do so. The low has been organizing somewhat throughout the day today, and is now producing winds of 35 mph. All it would take for advisories to be initiated on 91L is a burst of thunderstorms (convection) over the center. If convection does form over the center of 91L, advisories may be issued and Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for the Texas Gulf Coast. Even if thunderstorms do not form, advisories may be issued on 91L as a Potential Tropical Cyclone, they do this to issue warnings before the system forms to spread the warning better. Regardless of whether this develops or not, heavy rain and flash flooding will be a concern from SW Louisiana to Texas over the next couple of days.

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Sabal_Louisiana
6 hours ago, JLM said:

Invest 91L has my attention this afternoon. Development chances up to 60% now, but it only has a short time to develop if its going to do so. The low has been organizing somewhat throughout the day today, and is now producing winds of 35 mph. All it would take for advisories to be initiated on 91L is a burst of thunderstorms (convection) over the center. If convection does form over the center of 91L, advisories may be issued and Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for the Texas Gulf Coast. Even if thunderstorms do not form, advisories may be issued on 91L as a Potential Tropical Cyclone, they do this to issue warnings before the system forms to spread the warning better. Regardless of whether this develops or not, heavy rain and flash flooding will be a concern from SW Louisiana to Texas over the next couple of days.

We've already had terrible flooding around here this week. 13.7 inches overnight Tuesday in south Baton Rouge.

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JLM

Ana ended up making a full tropical transition before being slayed by shear lastnight. Tropical Storm Ana peaked with winds of 45 mph as it slowly made its turn to the northeast of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch had been issued for the island of Bermuda but TS conditions were never observed on the island. No other tropical activity is expected over the next couple of weeks at this time.

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JLM

Today is the first day of hurricane season, thankfully everything is quiet right now. This day last year Tropical Storm Cristobal had formed.

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JLM

Starting to see consistancy in the global models for possible tropical development within the yellow highlighted area over the next week or so. Development could begin as soon as early next week, so there is plenty of time to watch and see how this goes. Now would be a good time to review you plan and prepare, and i do believe the Florida tax free holiday for hurricane supplies ends today, so go take advantage of that while you still have time!

dev.PNG

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JLM

Well there's that. New AOI in the southwesten Caribbean Sea with 20% probabilities within the next 5 days. Expected to move northwestward into Central America. Its future beyond that is blury, but some ensemble predictions think this could be a Gulf threat later on down the road. Something to watch closely.

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AnTonY
On 5/14/2021 at 1:31 PM, bubba said:

Trying to reason

With hurricane season

Would be total treason

Without a liaison

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JLM

A new area of interest has been highlighted by the NHC today in the southern Gulf of Mexico/BoC, this one is up to 30% now. Looks like development odds will continue to increase over the next few days, models have stayed consistent on at least an area of low pressure developing there, just what happens to it afterwards is still unknown. Regardless of whether or not anything develops, the Gulf Coast will be in store for a few or more soggy days within the next week or two.

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JLM

Update on the things going on in the Atlantic. This sudden wave of activity is being caused by the passing of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave.

For starters, there is only 2 disturbances out there right now, as Invest 93L has developed into a Tropical Depression off the coast of North Carolina, this will continue moving quickly to the Northeast, and might briefly become a Tropical Storm. The next name is Bill.

Disturbance 1/Invest 92L: This area of interest has been dubbed Invest 92L, it is possible that a system could develop out of this later this week. There is a 60% chance of development through 5 days. Regardless of whether or not something develops, heavy rainfall will be expected across portions of Central America, Mexico, and the northern Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida. Any other impacts is unknown because we dont know if this will even move north towards the US or not.

Disturbance 2: This is the first tropical wave to be marked for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It has a 20% chance of development through 5 days, if anything does develop it should be weak and short lived as it will run into an unfavorable environment over the next few days.

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JLM

Disturbance 2 has now been dubbed Invest 94L, chances remain at 20% through 5 days.

Invest 92L's chances has been raised to 70%, looks like heavy rainfall and dangerous surf and rip currents look to be the primary impacts even if a Tropical Storm forms or not. The European Model's 12z run was quite the head scratcher, but this scenario could play out. The system develops into a Tropical Storm on the model as it moves slowly northward, once it has made landfall a trough moving across the US sweeps the system away to the east northeast. To add to this, because of the forward motion and the speed it would be moving at that point, tropical storm and even hurricane force wind gusts are shown from AL/FL all the way to the Carolinas. That would be quite the situation if that was to play out, but this is the first time it has been shown on this model so take this with a grain of salt. Either way, its always a good idea to begin preparing even if a storm doesnt form.

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JLM

Potential Tropical Cyclone 03L has a 90% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm before it moves inland. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Gulf Coast from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to Vermillion Bay in Louisiana. Heavy rainfall, potentially up to 10" in some spots are possible across a wide area, because of this Flash Flood Watches are up. The main area of heavy rainfall and winds is beginning move onshore from Louisiana to Alabama. This rain will persist throughout the tonight and into tomorrow as the storm makes landfall. Storm surge flooding of up to 3ft is possible in some areas along the coast.

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Palmarum

Even without a name, they are a pain in the butt...

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JLM

Well it looks like this system wont be given a name unless it is done so in the next advisory (within the next 10 minutes, if not already released by the time this is sent), nonetheless, the impacts will not change. Heavy flooding rains will set up over the gulf coast, and could produce a significant flash flooding event from MS to the FL Panhandle. Amount of 4-8" are possible, with locally higher amounts up to 12-15". TS force wind gusts are also still a big possibility from Louisiana to Florida, some gusts could be as high as 60 mph especially on the immediate coast. The tornado threat has already started, and will continue to increase as the night goes on as it shifts east. Later into the morning we should see a gradual shift to the north and northeast into parts of AL and GA with the tornado and flash flood threat. I can almost guarantee that because this hasnt been given a name, some people didnt try to prepare for it, maybe this will serve as a lesson for the future.

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JLM

Forgot about this thread. Tropical Storm Danny made landfall in South Carolina back in June. Now we have Tropical Storm Elsa. That storm let go of its hurricane status, and the shear and forward speed has been holding it back quite a bit. Lastnight the storm developed an unhealthy convective pattern with very cold cloud tops, but the cold doesnt bother Elsa anyway.
In all seriousness, Elsa has caused plenty of damage in the islands, Barbados and St. Lucia seeming to have had the worst impacts thus far. Elsa has been spreading heavy rainfall and TS force winds to the Greater Antilles, next stop is Cuba. After that is still uncertain, is Elsa organized enough to survive the mountains of Cuba? If the storm does survive Cuba, how strong will it be in the Gulf of Mexico? Regardless of how strong it is though, heavy rainfall will still be a concern for the Florida peninsula. Its looking like the storm may impact the Tampa area as a strong tropical storm with the current forecast track, but shifts are still possible. Folks along the eastern seaboard also needs to watch Elsa, as the storm may survive over the SE US and impact the east coast later on down the road. By the way, Happy Independence Day!

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