Can cocos survive in Lindos,Rhodes in Greece?

[Than]

1 minute ago, Manos33 said:

 

But most importantly we will need the cooperation of a local person who lives in Fri. I think if we find a person who is a winter inhabitant in the Kasos capital , which is by far the best location on the island with a low altitude next to the sea and obviously the most cold resistant area in Kasos then we are increasing our chances.  Ideally we would need someone who lives at the west tip of Fri which is closest to the airport where the mildest HNMS station is located...

OK now you're asking for a lot. 

Anyway guys since I work remotely anyway I decided to move to Kasos.

[Victor G.]

3 minutes ago, ego said:

When I said get Indian coconuts I meant the nuts. Not plants. Don't trust those. 

Oh okay. No luck here; the only have from Ivory Coast and Chile.

I used to buy them a lot for a short while, but turns out 1 out of every 3 you buy is rotten inside, so I stopped. I keep up the search

[southathens]

9 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

I get it, it's warm but THAT warm? Or are they just very lucky as UK_Palms suggested?

It's this year's air circulation where warm masses are stuck in the W due to the Azores depression and the E gets constant cold air coming from N

[southathens]

3 minutes ago, ego said:

OK now you're asking for a lot. 

Anyway guys since I work remotely anyway I decided to move to Kasos.

Hehhe!!!

[Victor G.]

1 minute ago, Manos33 said:

It's this year's air circulation where warm masses are stuck in the W due to the Azores depression and the E gets constant cold air coming from N

So it's this year's thing right? Not every year like that?

It really surpsised me to see so high minimums but also so high maximums in a Mediterranean coast.

[Than]

Wikipedia says Kasos is the only place in Europe that's in zone 11b. Didn't know that. 

[southathens]

32 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

So it's this year's thing right? Not every year like that?

It really surpsised me to see so high minimums but also so high maximums in a Mediterranean coast.

This year for the entire winter I mean. Because March is always like that in Iberia. Its hotter than the E. But come April Greece does a come back 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Manos33

[southathens]

27 minutes ago, ego said:

Wikipedia says Kasos is the only place in Europe that's in zone 11b. Didn't know that. 

Yeah, using the Gouvas formula from inforest for PH as adjusted for Greece Kasos is indeed zone 11b!

[Than]

1 minute ago, Manos33 said:

Yeah, using the Gouvas formula from inforest for PH as adjusted for Greece Kasos is indeed zone 11b!

Oh yeah; I remember the conversation. But in the conventional method it is 10b/11a.

[southathens]

Just now, ego said:

Oh yeah; I remember the conversation. But in the conventional method it is 10b/11a.

Its clear 11a  if we use the most recent NOA data for Kasos

[Victor G.]

Just now, ego said:

Oh yeah; I remember the conversation. But in the conventional method it is 10b/11a.

I remember also, though I didn't quite understand back then.

If we're talking about USDA plant hardiness zones, there's only the conventional method, but you have to have a weather station to report the temperatures.
Then you take the average of 30 years' minimum annual temperatures.

Obviously, we can't have a weather station in each spot; i think that is what Gouvas was aiming to achieve.

But I do think that given it's temperature readings, Kasos could actually fall in the 11a zone

[southathens]

5 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

I remember also, though I didn't quite understand back then.

If we're talking about USDA plant hardiness zones, there's only the conventional method, but you have to have a weather station to report the temperatures.
Then you take the average of 30 years' minimum annual temperatures.

Obviously, we can't have a weather station in each spot; i think that is what Gouvas was aiming to achieve.

But I do think that given it's temperature readings, Kasos could actually fall in the 11a zone

We have data for 33 years from Kasos HNMS station whereby only once in 2022 Ts dropped below 4C so even with the long term data from Kasos HNMS it is a clear 11a with the conventional method.  Karpathos would also be a clear 11a based on 50+ years of data using the conventional method.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Manos33

[southathens]

Look below at the inforest map which uses an even stricter method which puts Karpathos at 10b just for 0.1C even though it is a clear 11a using the official HNMS data with the conventional method.

Basically what the inforest map does is that it uses an arbitrary  ''estimate of absolute Tmins'' reading 4.3C while the actual mean of absolute Tmins from the HNMS data read 5.7C which puts Karpathos in a clear 11a. Kasos would have an even higher value.

 

And just a few kms W of Karpathos city the same stricter method gives an 11a zone

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Manos33

[Than]

3 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Look below at the inforest map which uses an even stricter method which puts Karpathos at 10b just for 0.1C even though it is a clear 11a using the official HNMS data with the conventional method.

Basically what the inforest map does is that it uses an arbitrary  ''estimate of absolute Tmins'' reading 4.3C while the actual mean of absolute Tmins from the HNMS data read 5.7C which puts Karpathos in a clear 11a. Kasos would have an even higher value.

We need to come up with a similar zoning system for maximum temperatures. For instance if the maximum is above 10C then it's zone 10a etc. 

[southathens]

1 minute ago, ego said:

We need to come up with a similar zoning system for maximum temperatures. For instance if the maximum is above 10C then it's zone 10a etc. 

Check also the edit on my post above!

[Than]

3 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Check also the edit on my post above!

Which one? Can you quote?

[southathens]

4 minutes ago, ego said:

Which one? Can you quote?

The picture with the 11a zone just W of Karpathos city.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Manos33

[Than]

Yes I saw that. I also noticed that a small area around Agia Marina near my home is 10a while all the surrounding region is 9b. That small 10a island crosses Dikastika. Victor I hope your house is on the 10a side haha.

[Victor G.]

2 minutes ago, ego said:

Yes I saw that. I also noticed that a small area around Agia Marina near my home is 10a while all the surrounding region is 9b. That small 10a island crosses Dikastika. Victor I hope your house is on the 10a side haha.

It's a slow day today, so I calculated the minimum temperatures of each year for three of the surrounding stations of Dikastika.

All of them fall within the 10a zone.

From my readings, Dikastika almost always has a tiny bit higher absolute minimum temp than Nea Styra. So it's definitely in the 10a zone.
I was hoping to be 10b actually, but I don't think so. I need more data though, I've been registering temperatures since 2 years only.

[Victor G.]

Now this is interesting. I've been comparing these actual reading to the estimation of Gouvas:

Rafina is at -0,55 while Gouvas estimated -0,7. Impressive!

Nea Makri is at 0,58 while Gouvas estimated -1,8. Wayyyy off!

Nea Styra is at 0,76 while Gouvas estimated 0,4. Also a good estimation.

At Dikastika Gouvas estimates -0,8. I believe he's way off again. I've been comparing my readings with the ones from Nea Styra and their higher 95% of the time. Plus this year and last year my absolute minimum was a bit higher than Nea Styra.

Maybe he's wrong? Maybe it's an outdated map? Maybe climate change intervened? Who knows.
But as a mathematician with experience on dynamical systems and data estimations (Gouvas probably used both those for his estimations), I must say that it is UNIMAGINABLY hard to perform such estimations with accuracy. You'll have to take into account the topology of each area in Greece, the winds blowing over it, rain shadow effect and wind stoppers (such as mountains), etc.
It would literally take decades, multiple scientists and a vast amount of data to do it.

[southathens]

43 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

Now this is interesting. I've been comparing these actual reading to the estimation of Gouvas:

Rafina is at -0,55 while Gouvas estimated -0,7. Impressive!

Nea Makri is at 0,58 while Gouvas estimated -1,8. Wayyyy off!

Nea Styra is at 0,76 while Gouvas estimated 0,4. Also a good estimation.

At Dikastika Gouvas estimates -0,8. I believe he's way off again. I've been comparing my readings with the ones from Nea Styra and their higher 95% of the time. Plus this year and last year my absolute minimum was a bit higher than Nea Styra.

Maybe he's wrong? Maybe it's an outdated map? Maybe climate change intervened? Who knows.
But as a mathematician with experience on dynamical systems and data estimations (Gouvas probably used both those for his estimations), I must say that it is UNIMAGINABLY hard to perform such estimations with accuracy. You'll have to take into account the topology of each area in Greece, the winds blowing over it, rain shadow effect and wind stoppers (such as mountains), etc.
It would literally take decades, multiple scientists and a vast amount of data to do it.

 

You are not doing it correctly. The values you quote is not from Gouvas but from inforest map simulation. The Gouvas formula would give u different values. You have to actually apply mathematically the formula to your values for Dec Jan Feb Mar

[Victor G.]

1 minute ago, Manos33 said:

 

You are not doing it correctly. The values you quote is not from Gouvas but from inforest map simulation. The Gouvas formula would give u different values. You have to actually apply mathematically the formula to your values for Dec Jan Feb Mar

I thought the inforest map is actually the Gouvas formula, but run for every point in Greece (i.e. every coordinates, with every point of elevation etc.) That's why he's quoted in the references.

Did I get it wrong?

[southathens]

Here is the actual formula

[Victor G.]

4 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Here is the actual formula

Oh okay. I found it now, the map was created with another formula (image below). The whole point of the below formula is that you don't actually need temperature readings to determine the plant hardiness zone. Which is very helpful, because as said, we cannot have weather stations every 3 km for data measuring. But this method is prone to small mistakes.

Now about the Gouvas formula. Since he decided to use the temperature readings, I don't understand why he used them all. When the US Department of Agriculture decided to build the PH Zone system, they made the rules clear: you only use the absolute minimum temperature of the year (no matter in which month it occurs).
For example, if the lowest temperature of 2021 occurs in February 2021, you only use this value and "throw away" January, March and December 2021 (potential candidates where low temps occur).
The above formula of Gouvas might be an indicator of something, but it's not how USDA defined hardiness zones.

P.S.: I know you have talked about this before (maybe even in this thread) but I didn't understand it back then and I still don't do. However, if you don't want to go over this topic again, no problem for me

[southathens]

Yep, you got it now. The inforest simulation is with the formula above while the PH formula is the one I posted above. Note that the PH formula does not claim to provide a USDA zone but rather a PH zone adjusted for Greece from the USDA system!

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Manos33

[Victor G.]

2 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Yep, you got it now. The inforest simulation is with the formula above while the PH formula is the one I posted above. Note that the formula does not claim to provide a USDA zone but rather a PH zone adjusted for Greece from the USDA system!

Oh okay then. So we're talking about different systems. Meaning 10a is Texas (for example) means something different than my 10a, since his 10a comes from the USDA system and mine comes from the adjusted.

[southathens]

Yes, I have made the point in previous posts that the formula is adjusted for Greece only

[southathens]

Btw despite the terrible 2022 for Kasos NOA station, using the conventional USDA zone system it stills reads 5.9C which places it well into the 11a zone 

I am waiting for March to finish to calculate Kasos PH zone from the adjusted to Greece USDA system. However, I would not be surprised if it knocked Kasos down to 11a even in the adjusted system because it was already bordeline zone 11b. Let's see

[Victor G.]

3 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Yes, I have made the point in previous posts that the formula is adjusted for Greece only

Aaaahhh okay, that's what you mean by "adjusted".

I get it now (I think at least).

But that's not very practical, because when I look up plants' hardiness it's always in the USDA scale. Means I still have to measure the USDA scale of my place, because most (Greek) nurseries use this as reference

[Victor G.]

1 minute ago, Manos33 said:

Btw despite the terrible 2022 for Kasos NOA station, using the conventional USDA zone system it stills reads 5.9C which places it well into the 11a zone 

I am waiting for March to finish to calculate Kasos PH zone from the adjusted to Greece USDA system. However, I would not be surprised if it knocked Kasos down to 11a even in the adjusted system because it was already bordeline zone 11b. Let's see

Share your findings at the end! We're also interested!

[southathens]

7 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

But that's not very practical, because when I look up plants' hardiness it's always in the USDA scale. Means I still have to measure the USDA scale of my place, because most (Greek) nurseries use this as reference

I think more and more Universities in Greece have started using the Gouvas formula. It won't take long until the adjusted to Greece formula finds its way to mainstream nurseries in Greece.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Manos33

[southathens]

We are in the first day of the cold snap and Kasos was already down to 6.6C from the NOA station and 7C (rounded) from the HNMS station.

It is not looking good as the next few days are expected to be even colder.

Here yesterday minimums with HNMS Kasos and HNMS Karpathos leading the way for Greece. 

[Victor G.]

We have indeed extremely low temperatures , considering we're one and a half weeks from April. Look at the min temperatures of south Greece.

I'm waiting for March to end, so I can see the whole month's Tmin, Tavg and Tmax. But in many places, all of these values are lower than January's and February's and I hardly expect the end of March to do any difference

[southathens]

The models are now more certain. Come Friday Greece will be back to low 20's locally. 

But yeah, look at today's minimums. Anafi island at 2.8C . That's very significant for late March 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Manos33

[Victor G.]

10 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

The models are now more certain. Come Friday Greece will be back to low 20's locally. 

But yeah, look at today's minimums. Anafi island at 2.8C . That's very significant for late March 

There is someting more to consider. March's cold snaps (including the current) are relatively long lasting (not like 1 day of wind and that's it) and very very windy. Especially in the Cyclades region it's a constant 5-6Bft cold wind coming from Russia. Plus they were consecutive and did not allow for the temperatures really to bounce back up for many days.

This has cooled down the sea surface significantly and the sea itself cannot heat up the wind anymore before it reaches the island. That's bad for Kasos too.
I don't believe it will drop down to 3C anymore, but it clearly shows the temps being under 10C for 3 days or so.

Plus it's gonna be one late swimming season this year.

[southathens]

25 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

March's cold snaps (including the current) are relatively long lasting (not like 1 day of wind and that's it) and very very windy.

Statistically no. March cold snaps are much rarer in Greece, especially the past few years. That's why you see the past decade areas in South Greece with a mean max T for March around 19-20C

This year is an outlier.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Manos33

[Victor G.]

4 minutes ago, Manos33 said:

Statistically no. March cold snaps are much rarer in Greece, especially the past few years. That's why you see the past decade areas in South Greece with a mean max T for March around 19-20C

This year is an outlier.

No, I meant this year's cold snaps are long lasting (like January's) and consecutive. Not in general.

I always remembered March to be the season where you leave your house at 8am with a jacket (especially in Patra where I was studying; we were freezing because of the humidity) and around 12-1pm you would take it off because you were sweating. On very rare occasions and under the full sun you could be even with a T shirt.

[southathens]

Greece's minimums yesterday which was the first day of the cold snap. Kasos HNMS with 7C and Kastelorizo HNMS with 7.2C  registered the highest minimums in the country (also Heraklion HNMS,Methoni HNMS and Zakynthos HNMS were at 7C). Kasos NOA was 6.4C and Kastelorizo NOA was 7.9C

[Victor G.]

8 hours ago, Manos33 said:

Greece's minimums yesterday which was the first day of the cold snap. Kasos HNMS with 7C and Kastelorizo HNMS with 7.2C  registered the highest minimums in the country (also Heraklion HNMS,Methoni HNMS and Zakynthos HNMS were at 7C). Kasos NOA was 6.4C and Kastelorizo NOA was 7.9C

Today the south islands were a bit warmer, but Attica has be getting a lot cold this winter. I'm waiting for March to end just to see the avg Tmin and Tmax. Right now and in some places they're one of the coldest I've seen (not just for March but in general)

In the centre of Athens, the avg Tmax until today is 11,2!

[southathens]

31 minutes ago, Victor G. said:

In the centre of Athens, the avg Tmax until today is 11,2!

Yep. Btw this is the lowest March avg Tmax from 1890 when records began. Its colder so far than the epic March 1987!

Edited March 20, 2022 by Manos33