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Manos33

Can cocos survive in Lindos,Rhodes in Greece?

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Manos33

Hello everyone! Its been a long time since my last posts here and given that we now have more than 7 years of meteorological data from the area of Lindos in SE Rhodes in Greece, we can see some very interesting things according to the National Observatory of Athens fan aspirated meteorological station in Lindos.

It appears that it is by far the warmest area annually in geographical Europe beating even the warmest areas of the Canaries islands (which are not located in Europe anyways). Below Lindos data the past 7 years that the station is operating.

1214889371_Screenshot2021-05-04at11_09_18AM.thumb.png.2876adb4994e66d069e7d339cd633e74.png

By achieving an amazing 21.89C mean annual temperature it beats even Tenerife South AP station in the Canaries for the same period which is the warmest met station in the Canaries.

173157131_Screenshot2021-05-04at11_15_26AM.png.d608399d302f9ffd4d5322b43a9b24df.png

Below some more info for meteo enthusiasts 

https://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/117931-greek-islands-cyprus-v-canaries-madeira-2018/&do=findComment&comment=1137494

Sure the data are for a limited period of only 7 years and the winter temps in Lindos seem cool at a first glance to support cocos. However, we have examples of cocos surviving in Newport Beach, California which is even cooler compared to Lindos. Apart from the cool winter temps do you think the extremely hot summer temps can harm any attempts to grow cocos in Lindos? The excruciating high summer temps of Lindos are due to constant foehn winds throughout the summer.

So, I am skeptical..But what do you think it would take for cocos to grow in Lindos?

Edited by Manos33
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Zeeth

December, January, February, and March still look too cool. 

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Manos33

I have read somewhere that if protected by concrete some cocos can make it in the South Med climates...Don't know if that is accurate though

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sandgroper

Give it a try mate, 35c won't bother a coconut, it doesn't in the north of Western Australia so I don't think it will anywhere else, the cooler weather might be a drama but there's one way to find out!

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UK_Palms

While Lindos has one of the highest averages in Europe and some of the hottest summers, there are still other places in Europe that are marginally warmer in winter than Lindos. Places like Limassol in Cyprus and Palaiochora and Lerapetra on the south coast Crete come to mind. I'm pretty sure all of those places have still experienced some snow and significant cold snaps in recent years though, with lows down to 1C and highs that have not gone above 10C for a week at a time. I'm pretty sure that would be fatal to a coconut, unless you protect the hell out of it. Rhodes is pretty close to the Turkish mainland as well, so cold waves can probably make it across every couple of years, unlike places like Cyprus or Crete. What is the record low for Lindos? 

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PalmatierMeg

I agree with @Zeeth. But you can only try.

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Janni

Although the climate in Rhodes is suitable for many many tropicals, I don't think a cocos would be growing there for long time. As already said, winters are too long, average temperatures too low for a cocos. The biggest benefit of winter temperatures in Rhodes is that the night lows remain close to the average values. Frosts do not occur on Rhodes, at least I have never seen any such data.

If you are looking for the most "tropical" place in greece, it still is Crete. The climate there is much more balanced throughout the year and winter temps can be quite high. In recent years you see more and more plantings of tender tropicals, like Hyophorbe Lagenicaulis, Pandanus, ravenala madagascariensis, papaya and so on... maybe a Cocos would survive a bit longer there in a very protected place.

If you have a place on rhodes just give it a try with a cocos! if you do so, try a couple of other tropicals too! i think you'll have success with most of them :) 

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Manos33
7 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

While Lindos has one of the highest averages in Europe and some of the hottest summers, there are still other places in Europe that are marginally warmer in winter than Lindos. Places like Limassol in Cyprus and Palaiochora and Lerapetra on the south coast Crete come to mind. I'm pretty sure all of those places have still experienced some snow and significant cold snaps in recent years though, with lows down to 1C and highs that have not gone above 10C for a week at a time. I'm pretty sure that would be fatal to a coconut, unless you protect the hell out of it. Rhodes is pretty close to the Turkish mainland as well, so cold waves can probably make it across every couple of years, unlike places like Cyprus or Crete. What is the record low for Lindos? 

The most mild winters in Greece are not in Crete but in Kasos and Karpathos islands with minimums around 12C in January and maxes around 16C. They actually beat the winter means of the Azores and both coastal areas of these islands have never registered an air frost in recorded history. Rhodes (the city) also very rarely records an air frost. 

Not registering a double digit maximum for a week during the winter has never happened in Rhodes. Not even in the great 1934 cold snap. The record low for Lindos according to the National Observatory of Athens is +1.1C 

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
1 hour ago, Janni said:

If you are looking for the most "tropical" place in greece, it still is Crete. The climate there is much more balanced throughout the year and winter temps can be quite high.

That's a common misconception. Even among Greeks! The highest winter temps on average are seen in Kasos and Karpathos islands with a winter mean for DJF of 14.7C. 

Crete is exposed to ''prosinemos'' weather which is a Greek term for the Aegean Lake effect during cold snaps coming from the Balkans and this kind of weather occasionally reaches even the south coasts of Crete keeping on average slightly lower winter minimums compared to Kasos and Karpathos. 

While Crete can have some amazing winter heat with foehn winds, reaching 30.4C in 2010 during January (European record for January) it is at the same time slightly more sensitive to cold snaps compared to these two islands.

Edited by Manos33
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bubba

Calling Maurice! Last time he authoritatively stated “ no fly zone”...

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UK_Palms
2 hours ago, Manos33 said:

The most mild winters in Greece are not in Crete but in Kasos and Karpathos islands with minimums around 12C in January and maxes around 16C. They actually beat the winter means of the Azores and both coastal areas of these islands have never registered an air frost in recorded history. Rhodes (the city) also very rarely records an air frost. 

Not registering a double digit maximum for a week during the winter has never happened in Rhodes. Not even in the great 1934 cold snap. The record low for Lindos according to the National Observatory of Athens is +1.1C 

 

As you say, Rhodes is probably the warmest place in Europe during both winter and summer. By all means try a Cocos Nucifera there and I certainly wish you the best of luck with it. If a coconut is going to survive anywhere longterm, outside of the Canaries, it will be Rhodes, or Karpathos and Kasos as you say. Have people ever tried them there before? 

I remember being on holiday in Crete during winter with the family when I was a kid. We had a rental car and had to scrape the ice off it on a few mornings, which still had not melted by 10am. This was in Chania. I also remember walking around the Palace of Knossos and there was snow cover. The daytime temperature couldn't have been more than 5-6C that day. Certainly not warm enough to melt the snow cover. By the time we got back to Chania there was snow there too and I think more fell overnight.

The apartment in Crete was freezing due to the tile floors and no central heating. I also vividly remember the treacherous, icy back roads outside of town and in the mountains. The cold lasted about 4-5 days I think and the last day of our holiday, the temperature was back up to 20C again. So obviously that was a freak cold snap for them, but there's still no chance of a coconut surviving on Crete long-term. Not if you get cold snaps like that once or twice a decade. I'm sure where you are in Rhodes, it is quite a bit warmer in winter.

I also had a similar experience in Malaga, Spain during winter, which supposedly has the warmest winters of any city in Europe with more than 500,000 people. The start of the holiday was warm and t-shirt weather, but then one of the days didn't warm up above 5-6C and it was followed by a very hard freeze overnight. Everything was sparkling and covered in white crystals come morning. The pond in the communal garden had froze over completely with fish stuck under it. I'm pretty sure it went down to about -4C in the coastal Malaga suburb of Torremolinos, where I was staying. The sunny skies meant temperatures recovered to 10C+ that day, but there was another radiation frost the following night down to like -1C or -2C. Lots of damage to tender plants on our apartment complex. So again, no chance of coconuts making it long-term in southern Spain either. Not without protection. 

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Maltese coconut project

The climate seems very similar to Malta. I managed to get some of my grocery store bought coconut (from Lidl) survive winter on South facing area. The ones which were between 7 months to one year old survived. Here's a photo on the 30th April 2021 

IMG_20210430_105919.jpg

IMG_20210430_105831.jpg

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RedRabbit

I visited a few years ago and from what I recall Lindos was very hot and basically just a tourist trap. Rhodes itself is pretty cool, but Lindos not so much.  From what I could tell it seems like the island of Rhodes is less suitable for tropicals than the Costa del Sol, which we know quite can't support coconuts... In any event, Lindos isn't really a normal town and I don't think anyone would bother trying to grow coconuts there.

Edited by RedRabbit

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Janni

Please don't get me wrong. I too think, that Rhodes has the ideal climate for many tropicals and that the island's potential is widely underestimated.  nevertheless, mean tempreatures are not everything for some palms.

the reason why karpathos and kassos and large parts of rhodes have mild winter mean values, is mainly due to the relatively high night temperatures. They rarely drop significantly under 10°C and if they do so, it is just for a couple of nights. The oceanic influence but mostly the winds are the reason for this! there is literally no chance for radiational freezes, because the atmosphere is permanently mixed up and under. cold spells coming from the north usually hit crete, but not these islands. the mountains of the turkish mainland block large parts of cold spells coming from this direction.

However, it is because of the same reasons, why the daily max temperatures never rise far above the mean values. all in all, the actual temperatures stay close to the mean values, day and night around 10 - 15/16°C, accompanied with constant winds for about 3 months. and here we come to the point, why some tropicals wouldn't make it in the long term there. Nevertheless, I stronlgy believe, that you can create great and wonderful gardens with a large variety of tropicals on rhodes and the other islands. This will be similar on other mediterranean places lika malta, lampedusa, sicily and many more... just find the right spot and try! I keep my fingers crossed!

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Manos33
On 5/5/2021 at 4:09 AM, UK_Palms said:

As you say, Rhodes is probably the warmest place in Europe during both winter and summer. By all means try a Cocos Nucifera there and I certainly wish you the best of luck with it. If a coconut is going to survive anywhere longterm, outside of the Canaries, it will be Rhodes, or Karpathos and Kasos as you say. Have people ever tried them there before? 

Well, Lindos is a small village and both Kasos and Karpathos have few inhabitants so I am not sure there have been people curious enough to start growing coconuts...

To be honest Kasos and Karpathos due to having even milder winters might have higher chances of supporting coconuts. An interesting fact is that the record low temperature for the capital of Kasos is +4.2C  according to the National Observatory of Athens. This goes to show that Kasos and I bet also Karpathos are much more protected than Lindos during the winters which has a record low of +1.1C

I mean never dropping below 4C in its recorded history seems pretty amazing given the fact that Greece gets a couple of really cold snaps once or twice a decade. It shows that cold snaps from Turkey never reach these islands or if they reach them they are very weakened and the same goes for the cold snaps arriving from the Balkans. They seem islands that are naturally protected from cold.

Who knows, maybe someone has tried in Lindos, Kasos or Karpathos to grow coconuts.I would be curious to see the results...

 

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Manos33
5 hours ago, Janni said:

However, it is because of the same reasons, why the daily max temperatures never rise far above the mean values. all in all, the actual temperatures stay close to the mean values, day and night around 10 - 15/16°C, accompanied with constant winds for about 3 months. and here we come to the point, why some tropicals wouldn't make it in the long term there. Nevertheless, I stronlgy believe, that you can create great and wonderful gardens with a large variety of tropicals on rhodes and the other islands. This will be similar on other mediterranean places lika malta, lampedusa, sicily and many more... just find the right spot and try! I keep my fingers crossed!

Mind you that the mean minimum January temperature for the capital of Kasos is 11.7C and the record low stands at +4.2C which I think is 11a hardiness zone.  The capital is located at the north of the island so the south might well be a clear 11a 

Edited by Manos33

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Shoowow
On 5/4/2021 at 9:26 PM, Manos33 said:

The most mild winters in Greece are not in Crete but in Kasos and Karpathos islands with minimums around 12C in January and maxes around 16C. They actually beat the winter means of the Azores and both coastal areas of these islands have never registered an air frost in recorded history. Rhodes (the city) also very rarely records an air frost. 

Not registering a double digit maximum for a week during the winter has never happened in Rhodes. Not even in the great 1934 cold snap. The record low for Lindos according to the National Observatory of Athens is +1.1C 

Looks like you have a great climate for many tropicals in Kasos and Karpathos, but the dryness is an issue. Here in the Azores our have plenty of rain year round and very even temperatures, but the wind is our biggest issue with tropicals. Our winters are similar temperature wise. The official data I found for Kasos and Karpathos showed cooler temps than you mentioned in winter. In Ponta Delgada, S. Miguel island, the coldest month average low is 11.2c and average high is 16.8c, according to official data. The real plus here is that temperatures very rarely drop below 10c, and days where temperatures don't rise above 15c are very rare. We also never had freezing or frost at sea level. The Azores grows bananas commercially and many other tropical crops, including coffee. As for palms, the interest is relatively recent, so not a lot of variety yet, although that is changing.

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Cluster

Hello Manos, can you link me the weather station for Kasos etc? The national observatory of Athens stations will always produce a bit higher values than for example an airport station with grass below or similar, like most official stations (like HNMS) that should, in theory, follow standards like the grass etc. So the rooftop weather stations and so on will add a bit to it, nevertheless those are very good results, you could try your luck with a coco. 

In terms of record lows can you tell me for how long is the station on record? Thank you. 

Edited by Cluster

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Manos33
5 hours ago, Cluster said:

Hello Manos, can you link me the weather station for Kasos etc? The national observatory of Athens stations will always produce a bit higher values than for example an airport station with grass below or similar, like most official stations (like HNMS) that should, in theory, follow standards like the grass etc. So the rooftop weather stations and so on will add a bit to it, nevertheless those are very good results, you could try your luck with a coco. 

In terms of record lows can you tell me for how long is the station on record? Thank you. 

Below the Kasos station from NOA

http://penteli.meteo.gr/stations/kasos/

You can find the records for the period 2010-2021 that the station is operational here

http://meteosearch.meteo.gr/ (sorry it's in Greek but if you need help give me a shout)

Also what you are saying about Davis stations giving higher values is not corroborated by the National Observatory of Athens

Below you can find a detailed paper about the WMO standards NOA follows for all its Davis stations and the scrutiny it applies while running quality controls.

http://meteosearch.meteo.gr/Raw Materials/2017-Geoscience_Data_Journal-stations.pdf

Moreover, below you will find the detailed entries for Kasos station problems so far (sorry again in Greek).  As you will notice (I can translate for you if you want) there is not a single entry of T bias in the Kasos station. Any stations found to have problematic T values are immediately marked by NOA in the section of each station as shown below and relevant corrections are applied to their metadata.

http://meteosearch.meteo.gr/stationInfo.asp

1956224117_Screenshot2021-05-08at1_32_10AM.png.76db89652336d6ec8615ad9588dae26c.png

Finally, I have worked out the average extreme minimums of Kasos for the 12 year period the station is operational and it reads 6.3C just 0.9C shy of entering 11b zone if I am not mistaken. Let's give it 5 more years and I am hopeful Kasos might manage to enter 11b zone given the fact that we see an upwards trend the past few years.

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
13 hours ago, Shoowow said:

Looks like you have a great climate for many tropicals in Kasos and Karpathos, but the dryness is an issue. Here in the Azores our have plenty of rain year round and very even temperatures, but the wind is our biggest issue with tropicals. Our winters are similar temperature wise. The official data I found for Kasos and Karpathos showed cooler temps than you mentioned in winter. In Ponta Delgada, S. Miguel island, the coldest month average low is 11.2c and average high is 16.8c, according to official data. The real plus here is that temperatures very rarely drop below 10c, and days where temperatures don't rise above 15c are very rare. We also never had freezing or frost at sea level. The Azores grows bananas commercially and many other tropical crops, including coffee. As for palms, the interest is relatively recent, so not a lot of variety yet, although that is changing.

 

My fear as well is the dryness of the Kasos climate.  Where did you find the official data? There was in the past only Karpathos HNMS station which unfortunately has no official means published on the HNMS webpage. 

However, below you can find the means for DJF for the Kasos NOA station for the period 2010-2021 that it is operational.

Dec

Mean Max: 17.6C

Mean Min: 13.6C

Jan

Mean Max: 15.9C

Mean Min: 11.7C

Feb

Mean Max: 16.5C

Mean Min: 12.1C

Mean DJF temp: 14.7C

If I am not mistaken the 14.7C winter mean in Kasos is slightly higher compared to the warmest Azores station I found for the entire winter (I think Santa Maria).

Edited by Manos33

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Cluster

I understand they are good stations Manos, but back then I read some of their locations Crete/Lindos etc and the warmest stations were often on rooftops, they were NOA nevertheless, but for example the IPMA official stations have grass below them, the grass alone will make a difference compared to a good rooftop station even with the best equipment and standards. A lot of people question NOA, even if their standards are better than no standards. It is to expect they report real values, but if you were to change the Azores stations to a similar configuration or Tenerife you would have higher readings. If you have a radiation shield you can do the test yourself with the station above your lawn and with it above your normal floor/rooftop, there will be a difference.

The record lows for Kasos are very good, I would expect over a 30 years period to maybe shift to 2 C record low, but this is pure speculation. Thank you for the info.

Regarding Azores, most values are from 71-2000,  and there is around a 0.35 C increase per decade, so something for the period of 91-2020 should yield at least 0.7 C more, if you were to consider a 2010-2020 period that value would be even higher. The coldest month in Azores is warmer even considering very old values, as for the full winter it is closer as you noted, but with recent values the Azores should pull slightly ahead. One of the advantages of Azores as I see it, is their defense against colder spells, their max temps and lows never fall much, so they are a bit more stable as zone 11b, on the other hand they take ages to heat up after the winter and that is not very good for a heat starving coconut.

Thanks for the info.

Edited by Cluster

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Manos33
10 hours ago, Cluster said:

but if you were to change the Azores stations to a similar configuration or Tenerife you would have higher readings. 

If we have reliable Davis stations in these areas we can put it to a test now but unfortunately I have not managed to find a Davis station for either areas. If you know of any such stations it would be interesting to check them out for a head to head comparison. Seeing how unique the climate of Lindos is I would say it is a rather bold statement that for example Tenerife may actually beat it in terms of annual means.

However, we have some observational notes regarding the Kasos HNMS station compared to the NOA station,  since the NOA data have sparked some real interest among the Greek meteo community. Unfortunately, the Kasos HNMS station only reports rounded values year round in real time in their website but from our observations we see that the HNMS station is around 0.5 to 1.5C consistently warmer than the NOA station in Kasos during the winter and especially regarding the winter minimums. Again it is only observational and we compare rounded values to the NOA values but this is a good indication that the Kasos station from NOA is actually really reliable and probably it is not even in the warmest winter location of the island. Bear in mind that also the HNMS station is located in the capital of Kasos (Fry). Moreover, an interesting note on Fry, is that alongside Kastelorizo they are the only two areas in Greece where we do not have reliable reports of a freeze or snowfall occurrence. While mountains and higher elevations n Kasos get snow almost every few years we do not have any real report of Fry having seen freeze or snow the past century or so (from at least the 1930's when HNMS became the weather authority in Greece)

10 hours ago, Cluster said:

The record lows for Kasos are very good, I would expect over a 30 years period to maybe shift to 2 C record low, but this is pure speculation. Thank you for the info.

That's an interesting point for me as well and from my observations I am fairly confident that the Kasos coasts are unlikely to see anything less than 3C or 4C in a 30 year period. This is due to our observations from the famous Jan 2017 cold snap (Ariadni) that show even areas of Crete close to their all time record lows. Of course the snowfall was rather limited in 2017 compared to 2004 or 2008 in Crete due to limited precipitation of that system but during the whole cold snap Kasos registered its all time record low of +4.2C. So I assume that if Kasos managed to pull a value of over 4C during that cold snap that affected all of Greece (a lot of snow fell in Kasos mountains as well) then anything less than 3C or 4C is becoming increasingly unlikely.

 

10 hours ago, Cluster said:

Regarding Azores, most values are from 71-2000,  and there is around a 0.35 C increase per decade, so something for the period of 91-2020 should yield at least 0.7 C more, if you were to consider a 2010-2020 period that value would be even higher.

Again we can test this right now if we had reliable Davis fan aspirated stations in the Azores. It would be interesting to compare Kasos with the Azores for the same period with the same type of station given that Davis are the best stations available for general use. Unfortunately, my Portuguese is not that good to allow me to research for a reliable Davis met station in the Azores. Do you know any? I am speculating that Kasos might continue to be warmer to the Azores if we had a head to head Davis comparison judging from the data coming from the Kasos HNMS station. However, I do agree with you that the absence of cold snaps seen in Greece and that occasionally reach the far south of the country would make Azores a more reliable 11a/b zone. In terms of the mean winter temps though Kasos might just pull it off. This is because the cold snaps that survive all the way to Kasos are extremely brief and short lived and temps recover almost immediately., usually within 8 to 24 hours and they only last a couple of days per decade.

However, we have done something similar recently for continental Europe and we found that the Athens Riviera (Nea Smyrni NOA station) is the warmest area annually in continental Europe, by directly comparing for the same period the warmest reliable Davis fan aspirated stations in Iberia. After much research I found that the warmest reliable Davis station in the Iberian Peninsula annually is the urban Triana/University of Seville area, Davis met station located in downtown Seville (Spanish lessons in my teens paid off hahha).

Here the links for both stations:

Seville downtown Davis station

http://www.tiempoensevilla.es/wxnoaaclimatereports.php

Nea Smyrni (Athens Riviera proximity) NOA station

http://penteli.meteo.gr/stations/neasmyrni/

So for the period of parallel operation of close to a decade (2012-2021) it appears that Nea Smyrni NOA registers a mean annual temp of 20.4C vs 20.2C for Seville. Of course we are talking about urban stations so we are expecting both areas to be subject to urban heat island influences but these data help us understand that south Athens is probably the warmest area of continental Europe the past few years. In fact due to the excellent quality controls of Greece's oldest research institute which is the National Observatory of Athens we can see that almost half of south Athens from Nea Smyrni all the way to Piraeus and Palaio Faliro show mean annual temps over 20C the past decade. This is something we were always suspecting for south Athens but now we have the reliable met data to back it up.

For more information on the Athens Riviera please check here:

https://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121652-is-the-athens-riviera-the-warmest-area-of-continental-europe-annually/

I hope we can get some nice and reliable Davis met stations from the Azores and the Canaries for the same period so we can make head to head comparisons. It would be really interesting. Back to our main subject my biggest fear is that even if these areas in Greece are warmer annually or during the winter the dryness of the Kasos/Karpathos/Lindos areas will make it increasingly difficult for cocos to survive...

Edited by Manos33

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pietropuccio

Excuse me, nuts and plants are easily found in supermarkets, why ask, give it a try.

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Manos33
2 minutes ago, pietropuccio said:

Excuse me, nuts and plants are easily found in supermarkets, why ask, give it a try.

I am living in Athens. It is more of a discussion/feedback from the community on whether these warm areas of Greece can support cocos. Also I am not really sure if you can find so easily nuts in these remote areas of Greece. Well maybe Lindos due to being in Rhodes. But Kasos is a very small island. It depends heavily from Crete and Rhodes.

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Manos33
4 hours ago, Manos33 said:

So for the period of parallel operation of close to a decade (2012-2021) it appears that Nea Smyrni NOA registers a mean annual temp of 20.4C vs 20.2C for Seville. Of course we are talking about urban stations so we are expecting both areas to be subject to urban heat island influences but these data help us understand that south Athens is probably the warmest area of continental Europe the past few years.

Also, I forgot to mention an interesting find for the Athens Riviera! According to the Nea Smyrni NOA data for the past decade the mean of extreme low Ts stands at 2C exactly which effectively puts it at a 10b hardiness zone!

Edited by Manos33

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pietropuccio
3 hours ago, Manos33 said:

Also, I forgot to mention an interesting find for the Athens Riviera! According to the Nea Smyrni NOA data for the past decade the mean of extreme low Ts stands at 2C exactly which effectively puts it at a 10b hardiness zone!

Therefore like Miami (Florida), but unfortunately the USDA zones are not literally applicable to the Mediterranean climate (this has already been discussed in the past).

PS:  The average of extremely low temperatures in Palermo is 4.2 ° C, but the coconut dies the same.

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bubba

Would love to see odds defied! Kudos to the Maltese Coconut Experiment and good luck to all!

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Manos33
1 hour ago, pietropuccio said:

Therefore like Miami (Florida), but unfortunately the USDA zones are not literally applicable to the Mediterranean climate (this has already been discussed in the past).

PS:  The average of extremely low temperatures in Palermo is 4.2 ° C, but the coconut dies the same.

Well, I did some digging and I found the following equation which can be applied  to Greece ( I don't know if it can be applied to other Med countries though) and get a pretty accurate USDA zone:

PH = 1,16*{ [Tmn(Jan) + Tmn(Feb) + Tmn(Mar) + Tmn(Dec)] /4 } - 2,6

So, according to this equation Kasos is just on the threshold of 11b zone with a PH of 7.16°C  if my calculations are correct!

http://hardiness.inforest.gr/intro.html (the source is in Greek but with google translate you should be able to understand it)

 

 

Edited by Manos33

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Cluster

Hello Manos I do not believe there are many non official weather stations on the islands that use high standards, if I find something I will let you know. The problem with growing coconuts in Greece and warm parts of the Mediterranean might be just the occasional way cooler than average winter, I believe a normal or even slightly below normal winter they might make it there, in a sheltered place, I am more worried about long term survival. 

I can't vouch HNMS uses grass or not (I assume it does), not that familiar, but IPMA stations and Santa Cruz Tenerife observatory have grass. Hard to predict how Kasos 30/40 years records are but I would believe the 2C to 3 C region to be plausible and reasonable. In that year in fact, Kasos and Karphatos escaped the monthly min average anomalies unlike the other islands, suggesting a low record was less likely to be there, sometimes it is just being extremely lucky compared to the surrounding areas like in this event. How far was Ierapetra from all its time low just out of curiosity?

Azores is probably the mildest we have in Europe around those latitudes in terms of cold snaps and coldest month. 

image.png.817c888b087b7ab9eca459b929efc7a5.png

Edited by Cluster

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pietropuccio

Hello Manos,
this is an approximate formula to derive an index based on a totally empirical method that takes into account only the extreme minimum temperatures, this, with the appropriate corrections, is good for the climatic characteristics of the USA, not for those of the Mediterranean region. In the Mediterranean area there are no particularly low minimums, and this leads to an overestimation of the zone, but about 100 days a year of constantly and moderately low temperatures that affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species.
If the USDA method is applied to the letter, Palermo results in zone 10b, like Miami (Florida), so all the tropical species that are cultivated there without problems, should also be so in Palermo (as in Athens Riviera), unfortunately this is not the case. I have been involved in aclimation of tropical species for almost 60 years and I have come to the conclusion that precautionary results are obtained if, after applying the USDA method to the letter, you decrease by one zone, for example 10b --> 9b.
Naturally, even in a small garden in zone 9b, in particularly sheltered areas, plants typical of zone 10a can grow with limited damage in winter.
I empirically use Cocos nucifera as an index plant, if it grows without problems, as in South Florida, the zone is 10b, if it requires protection and grows with difficulty, the zone is 10a, if it dies 9b.

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Phoenikakias
47 minutes ago, pietropuccio said:

Hello Manos,
this is an approximate formula to derive an index based on a totally empirical method that takes into account only the extreme minimum temperatures, this, with the appropriate corrections, is good for the climatic characteristics of the USA, not for those of the Mediterranean region. In the Mediterranean area there are no particularly low minimums, and this leads to an overestimation of the zone, but about 100 days a year of constantly and moderately low temperatures that affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species.
If the USDA method is applied to the letter, Palermo results in zone 10b, like Miami (Florida), so all the tropical species that are cultivated there without problems, should also be so in Palermo (as in Athens Riviera), unfortunately this is not the case. I have been involved in aclimation of tropical species for almost 60 years and I have come to the conclusion that precautionary results are obtained if, after applying the USDA method to the letter, you decrease by one zone, for example 10b --> 9b.
Naturally, even in a small garden in zone 9b, in particularly sheltered areas, plants typical of zone 10a can grow with limited damage in winter.
I empirically use Cocos nucifera as an index plant, if it grows without problems, as in South Florida, the zone is 10b, if it requires protection and grows with difficulty, the zone is 10a, if it dies 9b.

To deduct a whole zone to the precision of subdivision is to much imo. To fall from 10a to 9a there is a great distance.  It may be absolutely safe, but luck of absolute safety should by no means interpreted as great risk in every case. Besides we have to investigate whether the cold tolerance limit as declared by seller is accurate and not doubt so much about the precision of the USDA zones. At least for the former alternative I can see some personal motive for overestimation.

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Manos33
7 hours ago, Cluster said:

Hello Manos I do not believe there are many non official weather stations on the islands that use high standards, if I find something I will let you know. The problem with growing coconuts in Greece and warm parts of the Mediterranean might be just the occasional way cooler than average winter, I believe a normal or even slightly below normal winter they might make it there, in a sheltered place, I am more worried about long term survival. 

I can't vouch HNMS uses grass or not (I assume it does), not that familiar, but IPMA stations and Santa Cruz Tenerife observatory have grass. Hard to predict how Kasos 30/40 years records are but I would believe the 2C to 3 C region to be plausible and reasonable. In that year in fact, Kasos and Karphatos escaped the monthly min average anomalies unlike the other islands, suggesting a low record was less likely to be there, sometimes it is just being extremely lucky compared to the surrounding areas like in this event. How far was Ierapetra from all its time low just out of curiosity?

Azores is probably the mildest we have in Europe around those latitudes in terms of cold snaps and coldest month. 

image.png.817c888b087b7ab9eca459b929efc7a5.png

Yes, all HNMS stations are in airports in grassed locations or park fields belonging to the Greek airforce. The criticism however for all non fan aspirated  stations such as Stevenson Screens used by national met offices is that they actually overestimate (especially the maxes) compared to Davis fan aspirated ones and this seems more pronounced during hot days. In fact, the NOA Davis stations are thought to constantly underestimate T's compared to HNMS stations and probably this is why I guess we see even higher temps in Kasos from the HNMS station.

Anyhow, given the impressive Kasos winter T's only a head to head comparison of same type of stations such as Davis or Stevenson Screens will show us whether Kasos/Karpathos or the Azores are the warmest on average during the winter but the data suggest that they will be pretty close, especially if we take into account the whole winter DJF mean then Kasos might actually be the winner. It is not a matter of luck that Kasos did not go lower than +4.2C back in 2017 but a clear indication that these islands are much more protected from cold snaps than any other area in Greece. This is certain from our observational standpoint. The fact that around 5 major cold snaps reached south Greece and even Crete during the period 2010-2021 and Kasos not managing to go below 4C shows that anything lower than that is increasingly unlikely. 

Back in 2017 many areas in Crete registered their all time record. The capital of the island, Iraklio registered 0.5C in 2017 while the previous record was 0.8C during the 2008 epic cold snap which lead to extensive snowfall in Iraklio . Also during the 2015 cold snap various areas of Crete were close to their all time record. In fact, in 2015 Ierapetra registered its all time record of 1.6C (next lowest 2.2C in 2017) while Kasos again did not go lower than 4.3C in 2015. 

All the above offer clear indications that Kasos/Karpathos islands seem extremely protected from these cold snaps that occasionally reach even south Greece. I think this is due to their position. First they are outside of the ''prosinemos'' weather affected areas of south Greece which usually engulfs almost the entire island of Crete, thus not allowing the cold snaps coming from the north to ever reach Kasos at full capacity.  Secondly, their long distance from mainland Turkey and the interception of Rhodes act as further buffers that do not allow cold snaps coming from Turkey to ever reach these islands and even if they reach them, they are considerably weakened. 

Now, regarding the long term survival of cocos in Kasos, having read all of you guys I think that the minimum T's in Kasos are not the real problem but the dryness of the climate might prove even harder. Lindos however, having gone done to 1.1C is another story. I think cocos would have a harder time surviving in Lindos with this kind of record lows but also with T's reaching 40C very easily. The mean max of over 35C during the hottest months in Lindos in my opinion is a reason for concern. If I had to bet, I would say that cocos have a higher chance of long term survival in Kasos and Karpathos than they do in Lindos... 

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
3 hours ago, pietropuccio said:

Hello Manos,
this is an approximate formula to derive an index based on a totally empirical method that takes into account only the extreme minimum temperatures, this, with the appropriate corrections, is good for the climatic characteristics of the USA, not for those of the Mediterranean region. In the Mediterranean area there are no particularly low minimums, and this leads to an overestimation of the zone, but about 100 days a year of constantly and moderately low temperatures that affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species.
If the USDA method is applied to the letter, Palermo results in zone 10b, like Miami (Florida), so all the tropical species that are cultivated there without problems, should also be so in Palermo (as in Athens Riviera), unfortunately this is not the case. I have been involved in aclimation of tropical species for almost 60 years and I have come to the conclusion that precautionary results are obtained if, after applying the USDA method to the letter, you decrease by one zone, for example 10b --> 9b.
Naturally, even in a small garden in zone 9b, in particularly sheltered areas, plants typical of zone 10a can grow with limited damage in winter.
I empirically use Cocos nucifera as an index plant, if it grows without problems, as in South Florida, the zone is 10b, if it requires protection and grows with difficulty, the zone is 10a, if it dies 9b.

Hello! Thank you for your insight! Your long experience with the Med area is much valued. The above formula was created by Dr. Gkouvas et al (2012) and was created specifically for the weather conditions we encounter in Greece. If you check the references in the link I provided the bodies of climatological research are linked at the bottom (unfortunately, again in Greek). In fact while doing some digging yesterday, I noticed in social media that the Agricultural University of Athens has provided recommendations for researchers and students to use this resource by offering further feedback.

Of course, this is not to substitute your long experience, but from a quick look yesterday I noticed that this tool was well received by researchers in Greece. In fact I am interested to hear what you think of the possibility of long time survival of cocos in Kasos. According to this formula Kasos is on the threshold of 11b zone. Do you think cocos can survive long term in such conditions we have described above? What other tropical plants might survive in Kasos climate do you believe?

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Manos33
8 hours ago, Cluster said:

 

image.png.817c888b087b7ab9eca459b929efc7a5.png

I forgot to mention that If you check the map you provided, the Iraklio area shows that it had higher mean min monthly temps compared to the rest of Crete, however like I have explained it was during that month that it registered its record low. I don't think maps of monthly averages offer any real perspective when we talk about record low temps. Especially in Crete where Ts recover extremely fast. One day you can have a record low temp and the next it may be like summer! Trust me we have seen Crete go from high 20's or even 30's in January down to 5C in just a couple of days and vice versa. 

Edited by Manos33

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Cluster

Hello Manos understand what you are saying but to have record lows you usually have prolonged cold to sustain itself further. If Ierapetra reached 1.6 then there is almost a 3 C difference 100km to the west of Kasos and the same to the east of Kasos (Lindos), such a huge  diference is a bit unlikely, are there any long term record lows for Karphatos, which should offer more insight? I also had the impression Ierapetra has seen below 1.6 before. Also for example in this January Iberia peninsula recorded a lot of all time lows and the low record of all time, yet many locations were really far from their all time lows.

In any case Kasos would fare a better chance than Lindos according to the data you have shared. The problem with both of those places, however, is not the record lows, but the fact they are not sustaining much heat in a cooler winter that may kill the coco in the long run, not a single cold snap event, that is why they survive in Miami with record lows below those.

Grass will definitely yield lower values than the same station on top of of concrete, I have done this test myself actually, there are things that can be done to mitigate this bias, such as materials, distance from walls and so on when placing it on a rooftop.

Edited by Cluster

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pietropuccio

Dear Manos,

It can be very useful for agriculture to make a climate mapping of one's country, for example the Greek zones, but this alone not help, it is necessary to connect the areas to the species to be cultivated, and this can only be done with field experimentation. Help can come from those who have already done this experimentation, that is to exploit the USDA zones. Here, and throughout Europe, it has been assumed that the zones obtained with the USDA method are fully usable, i.e. Europe zones, Greek zones etc. = USDA zones. To my knowledge this has never been demonstrated, indeed, going around the forums the failures due to this assertion are innumerable, regardless of what I have been able to personally ascertain.
My invitation is to experiment in the field, to know the potential of every corner of your garden, because the only ones that can give us indications on how to exploit the USDA climatic zones are the plants, after having made the first experiences it will be easier to orient ourselves on what can be cultivated with a minimum of security and what can be a gamble.
Finally, when the beaches of Athens, Cyprus, Crete, Malta etc  they will look like this you will be right and I will be wrong, unfortunately I will no longer be there :)

 

 

Cocos.jpg

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Manos33
3 hours ago, Cluster said:

Hello Manos understand what you are saying but to have record lows you usually have prolonged cold to sustain itself further. If Ierapetra reached 1.6 then there is almost a 3 C difference 100km to the west of Kasos and the same to the east of Kasos (Lindos), such a huge  diference is a bit unlikely, are there any long term record lows for Karphatos, which should offer more insight?

Impressive right?

Well, I haven't found the Karpathos all time low from the HNMS station, but I can tell you that during the cold snap of 2017 I was checking the HNMS Kasos metar hourly updates and the lowest that night was a rounded 5C if memory serves me well! I remember distinctly that both the HNMS and NOA Kasos stations were stuck between 4-5C for hours, which goes to show again that Kasos is really shielded from these cold snaps. Even in this year's cold snap Kasos was around 7C while both Lindos and Ierapetra fell down to around 4C! So I don't think we are talking about an unlikely event but the standard behavior of Kasos during extreme cold snaps, since we have seen it multiple times happening and in fact on two occasions where areas in Crete recorded their all time record lows!!!

I remember a few comments in a greek met forum from a couple of people who have lived in the past in Fri in Kasos (one I think was local) who were saying that this is due to the winds as well in Kasos. I am not sure of the point they were making but I think it was something along the lines that winds in Fri offer extra protection. Anyhow I think it is a combination of the location Kasos is and other factors such as the winds that shield the island from serious cold intrusions.

In fact below a few more impressive data about the Kasos winter minimums. So according to the NOA station data in Kasos we see:

Dec 2010-2020

The mean of the absolute minimums for Dec is 9.1C which indicates that it is unlikely to see less than 9C during December despite the occasional cold snaps that reach the island (significantly weakened of course)

2 occasions where the minimum Dec T did not fall below 11C

3 occasions where  it did not fall below 10C

5 occasions where it did not fall below 9C

Jan 2011-2021

The mean of the absolute minimums for Jan is 7.5C which again shows that any temp below 7.5C would probably require a significant cold snap during Jan! 

2 occasions where the minimum Jan T did not fall below 10C

4 occasions where  it did not fall below 9C

5 occasions where it did not fall below 8C

Feb 2011-2021

The mean of the absolute minimums for Feb is 8.1C which again shows that any temp below 8C would again probably require a significant cold snap during Feb! 

2 occasions where the minimum Feb T did not fall below 10C

4 occasions where  it did not fall below 9C

6 occasions where it did not fall below 8C

So if we examine the standalone extreme mean minimums per month we have an extra indication that we do actually see an 11b zone. To be honest, I doubt we can find any other location in Greece with such impressive resistance to low temps.

3 hours ago, Cluster said:

Grass will definitely yield lower values than the same station on top of of concrete, I have done this test myself actually, there are things that can be done to mitigate this bias, such as materials, distance from walls and so on when placing it on a rooftop.

To be honest, the problem with passive shielding offered by Stevenson Screen stations used by most national met offices is that ventilation especially during hot spells can be problematic. The fan aspiration offered by Davis stations coupled with the really meticulous NOA stations maintenance protocols makes me take more serious some of these stations compared to some really bad Stevenson Screens in the grass we see from various national met offices. Also mind you that NOA has a lot of grass stations where it is possible and their results are again totally comparable to those nearby in roofs, which goes to show how important mechanical ventilation and proper maintenance are.

As you can see in the NOA journal regarding the quality control and protocols the biases are insignificant and in many cases they far outperform Stevenson Screens in my opinion. Speaking of bad national met stations that are poorly maintained I have come across some atrocious ones in almost every Southern European country and I doubt Portugal would  be an exception. That's where NOA has an advantage over HNMS here in Greece. Being an independent research institute (the oldest in SE Europe actually) they do not rely so heavily on public funding. HNMS has been ''attacked'' multiple times by austerity plans from various Greek governments thus leaving some of its facilities in dire situation since it is under government authority. NOA on the other hand has managed to escape this fate and currently, despite not being the national met authority in Greece is valued much more from the general public compared to HNMS. This has forced HNMS to start collaborating with NOA more closely (which is a good thing) and you will notice that even in official HNMS reports NOA stations data are used.  So my point is that most NOA stations are top class if you ask me and most of Greek met lovers. Kasos certainly looks like it is extremely reliable!

 

Edited by Manos33

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Manos33
40 minutes ago, pietropuccio said:

Dear Manos,

It can be very useful for agriculture to make a climate mapping of one's country, for example the Greek zones, but this alone not help, it is necessary to connect the areas to the species to be cultivated, and this can only be done with field experimentation. Help can come from those who have already done this experimentation, that is to exploit the USDA zones. Here, and throughout Europe, it has been assumed that the zones obtained with the USDA method are fully usable, i.e. Europe zones, Greek zones etc. = USDA zones. To my knowledge this has never been demonstrated, indeed, going around the forums the failures due to this assertion are innumerable, regardless of what I have been able to personally ascertain.
My invitation is to experiment in the field, to know the potential of every corner of your garden, because the only ones that can give us indications on how to exploit the USDA climatic zones are the plants, after having made the first experiences it will be easier to orient ourselves on what can be cultivated with a minimum of security and what can be a gamble.
Finally, when the beaches of Athens, Cyprus, Crete, Malta etc  they will look like this you will be right and I will be wrong, unfortunately I will no longer be there :)

 

 

Cocos.jpg

Dear pietropuccio,

Thank you so much for your insight! I do agree with you that experimentation in the gardens is of outmost importance. I also doubt we will ever see beaches looking so impressive like the photo you posted anywhere in South Europe! But we owe it to try:)

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Cluster

Hello Manos, I can assure you our official meteo stations tend to be cooler than most other non official stations nearby, this is both due to the standards and locations, to the point I think they are too cold! The test with the grass was done at night as I don't have a radiational shield for direct sun, but studies usually show my findings as well. Try the davis in a more open area with grass below and then the rooftop with walls around, you would probably have a difference in readings. I can not give you details about IPMA stations and I doubt we can find that info easily but they always show the pictures of their placement and they are indeed cooler than nearby non official stations.

It is a shame that Karphatos records are not known, however I still say the same, just because one event close to the record happens 100km away, does not necessarily mean this location would have experienced the same theoretical record low, there were a lot of record lows this January in Portugal and Spain, including the lowest temperature ever recorded and yet a lot of stations were 2/3 C from their all time record. With time the information will be more clear, but 10 years of data is better than nothing. Tutiempo (and I take this site with a grain of salt) does point to an event in 2004 with a low of 1C for the airport station of Karphatos and if this is indeed correct I still believe in my initial guess.

Wind does help against radiational freezing nights, If Kasos is windy then this might be a "natural shelter", similar to Vila de Bispo in Portugal which is a cool and exposed location that is windy and has not experienced freezing lows (71-2000, lowest is 1.4) even though the station is located at 37 latitude and 115 m altitude in mainland. Faro further south has experienced freezing temperatures for example. From my experience cocos do not like sustained wind with low HR.

 

Edited by Cluster

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Manos33
1 hour ago, Cluster said:

Hello Manos, I can assure you our official meteo stations tend to be cooler than most other non official stations nearby, this is both due to the standards and locations, to the point I think they are too cold!

Trust me, I thought the same about our HNMS stations until the early 2010's that the NOA stations started becoming mainstream in Greece's meteorology! It was at this time that suddenly a myriad of NOA stations started reporting lower temps compared to some HNMS stations. Most Greek meteo lovers realized that it must be the fan ventilation that provides cooler temps compared to HNMS stations. This is why I am trying to locate some decent Davis stations in both the Canaries and the Azores so we will be in a position to better ascertain what is happening!

1 hour ago, Cluster said:

Tutiempo (and I take this site with a grain of salt) does point to an event in 2004 with a low of 1C for the airport station of Karphatos and if this is indeed correct I still believe in my initial guess.

And you should take it with a grain of salt. If I remember correctly tutiempo has huge and laughable errors for Greece (well for other European countries as well). Tutiempo reports at least 2 Greek stations with values of over 49C and one close to 51C while it has a couple of coastal areas of the south down to -9C. I mean ok it's laughable 

However, I did some further digging and I am excited to report that we have yet another confirmation that Karpathos has never dropped below 4C at least until 2012! 

According to meteoclub which is an extremely reliable met resource in Greece I found the following (again in Greek but I will translate)

https://www.meteoclub.gr/themata/statistika-metstathmon/thermarekor

''Σημαντική θέση στη μετεωρολογική ιστορία της χώρας, αν και όχι αμιγώς θερμό ρεκόρ αποτελεί και η υψηλότερη απόλυτα ελάχιστη θερμοκρασία που έχει σημειωθεί σε Ελληνικό μετεωρολογικό σταθμό και πρόκειται για την απόλυτα ελάχιστη θερμοκρασία που έχει καταγραφεί στον σταθμό της Καρπάθου (Ε.Μ.Υ), οπού για τη περίοδο 1971 ως το 2012 η θερμοκρασία δεν έχει πέσει ποτέ κάτω από 4 βαθμούς κελσίου!''

Basically it reads that between 1971 and 2012 Karpathos HNMS station has never seen a temperature lower than 4C !!!

So this is pretty impressive to be honest. Now, this got me a bit more intrigued and I remembered that HNMS does publish monthly bulletins from 2011 and this time they come in English as well!

http://www.hnms.gr/emy/en/climatology/climatology?

Unfortunately, they do not offer absolute minimums, however they offer means per month. It lists only Karpathos but it appears that my observations for Karpathos and Kasos HNMS being a bit warmer than Kasos NOA during the coldest months are confirmed.  The mean minimum of the coldest month for the period 2011-2020 which is January is also 11.7C for Karpathos HNMS. The mean minimum for February however is 12.7C vs 12.1C for Kasos NOA.

In fact, while copying the data for Karpathos to my excel I started noticing how pronounced the minimums are compared to all other areas of Greece during the winter. I mean I knew that Karpathos was indeed very warm during the winter but the differences compared to the second best station listed in the bulletins which is Rhodes HNMS are simply ridiculous! We are talking close to 1C higher mean minimums and mean monthly temps here!

So there is definitely something going on with Kasos and Karpathos. They appear to be some kind of minimum temperature superpowers in Greece and for a long time their values were flying under the radar for most Greek met lovers. Or maybe very few people noticed. Anyhow,  if this is the case and Karpathos has never seen a temperatures lower than 4C close to half a century now, then both islands call for further investigation of their absolute winter minimums and we should start seriously thinking about the possibility of growing tropical plants even for research purposes. 

I am starting to think that what the locals in this met forum were saying regarding Kasos winds might be the crucial factor that shields these islands so well from such cold intrusions coupled with their very protected position. I am curious to see in the future how all stations from these islands will behave! They are now on my radar!

 

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