College Station is now 9a! (25 years of data)

[Teegurr 436]

Using annual minimums from 1997-2021, the average annual minimum for College Station was 21.92 degrees. That puts us well into hardiness zone 9a! I'm so happy.

1997: 23 (9a)

1998: 24 (9a)

1999: 24 (9a)

2000: 19 (8b)

2001: 24 (9a)

2002: 17 (8b)

2003: 24 (9a)

2004: 25 (9a/9b)

2005: 24 (9a)

2006: 26 (9b)

2007: 21 (9a)

2008: 25 (9a/9b)

2009: 24 (9a)

2010: 18 (8b)

2011: 19 (8b)

2012: 28 (9b)

2013: 28 (9b)

2014: 19 (8b)

2015: 22 (9a)

2016: 22 (9a)

2017: 17 (8b)

2018: 15 (8a/8b)

2019: 26 (9b)

2020: 29 (9b)

2021: 5 (7a/7b)

I finally decided it was time to set the record straight. College Station IS 9a.

Feel free to argue, fellow aggies and everyone else. (I know, I didn't include the cold epoch of the 80s, shudder)

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by Teegurr

[Teegurr 436]

But wait, you say. The 2012 USDA hardiness zone map uses data from 1976-2005! Indeed, that data says the avg minimum temp is 19 degrees, a perfect storm of cold years contributing to that. But that is outdated! We need a new USDA hardiness zone map. Ok, so keeping in mind that the 2012 USDA map uses data from 1976-2005 (30 years), a 2021 update would use data from 1985-2014. In that case, our average annual minimum would be....you guessed it.... 22 degrees - a solid 9a!

Yeah, so we're 9a in my book. I will from now on refer to my city as 9a. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by Teegurr

[LivistonaFan 208]

I am happy for you being now in the 9a zone. How did the 9a palms (W.robusta/L.decora/Phoenix sylvestris etc.) like this last winter in your new zone? Are they feeling more confident now compared to previous winters when your zone was only 8b?

[Teegurr 436]

5 hours ago, LivistonaFan said:

I am happy for you being now in the 9a zone. How did the 9a palms (W.robusta/L.decora/Phoenix sylvestris etc.) like this last winter in your new zone? Are they feeling more confident now compared to previous winters when your zone was only 8b?

No! Not at all of course. I get it, it doesn't matter that much, I'm just happy about small victories.

[EastCanadaTropicals 166]

Nice! Now if only my area went up to 6a....

[EastCanadaTropicals 166]

9 hours ago, Teegurr said:

No! Not at all of course. I get it, it doesn't matter that much, I'm just happy about small victories.

According to data, it is 5a.

Edited April 26, 2021 by EastCanadaTropicals

[EastCanadaTropicals 166]

3 hours ago, EastCanadaTropicals said:

Nice! Now if only my area went up to 6a....

On the bright side, there have been no winters going below -20f since 1994, so that is good.

 

[Teegurr 436]

27 minutes ago, EastCanadaTropicals said:

On the bright side, there have been no winters going below -20f since 1994, so that is good.

 

I calculated your data, the avg annual minimum for the last 30 years in Montreal is -14.5F. So you are a very cold 5b or 5a/5b.

[Reyes Vargas 800]

 

1 hour ago, Teegurr said:

I calculated your data, the avg annual minimum for the last 30 years in Montreal is -14.5F. So you are a very cold 5b or 5a/5b.

How do you calculate the avg annual minimum?

Edited April 26, 2021 by Reyes Vargas

[Teegurr 436]

47 minutes ago, Reyes Vargas said:

 

How do you calculate the avg annual minimum?

I use either noaa climate data or currentresults.com for lowest temp each year and add up 30 years of temps (noaa has it averaged already for how many years one specifies) and divide by 30.

[Collectorpalms 1,996]

I thought a climate record was 30 years of data. Still College Station even with the 1970 and 1980 was still zone 8b.

But I don’t look at the average Low. I look at the frequency of Robusta killing winters.  
...we could have another Robusta killer in 2 years or 20. We went 31, longest since records began. Frequency is about 1 in 20 winters. So every winter 5% chance of a real bad one. 2021 was exceptional in its duration, thats more in the lines with 1 every 100. ( not enough historical length of data to be accurate)

Edited April 27, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Teegurr 436]

51 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

I thought a climate record was 30 years of data. Still College Station even with the 1970 and 1980 was still zone 8b.

But I don’t look at the average Low. I look at the frequency of Robusta killing winters.  
...we could have another Robusta killer in 2 years or 20. We went 31, longest since records began. Frequency is about 1 in 20 winters. So every winter 5% chance of a real bad one. 2021 was exceptional in its duration, thats more in the lines with 1 every 100. ( not enough historical length of data to be accurate)

Hey! I did do 30 years of data as well, sorry I didn't post this sooner. 1992-2021 (yes including arctic blast) is still an avg of 22 degrees minimum, meaning we are 9a. That's all that matters to be 9a. I'm currently in the process of creating an (unfortunately hand drawn) new map of Texas hardiness zones using avg minimums from 1992-2021. It will be awesome. Had some fun discoveries (Crockett is 8b/9a and Denton is 8b!) already.

[Collectorpalms 1,996]

2 hours ago, Teegurr said:

Hey! I did do 30 years of data as well, sorry I didn't post this sooner. 1992-2021 (yes including arctic blast) is still an avg of 22 degrees minimum, meaning we are 9a. That's all that matters to be 9a. I'm currently in the process of creating an (unfortunately hand drawn) new map of Texas hardiness zones using avg minimums from 1992-2021. It will be awesome. Had some fun discoveries (Crockett is 8b/9a and Denton is 8b!) already.

Denton had a high of -1, and a low of -6 on February 16, 2021. So they have only been an 8b for 2 months. I look at climate data in terms of long term all time lows not averages.

if there are Any 8b plants still in Denton that would be fortunate.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Teegurr 436]

1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

Denton had a high of -1, and a low of -6 on February 16, 2021. So they have only been an 8b for 2 months. I look at climate data in terms of long term all time lows not averages.

if there are Any 8b plants still in Denton that would be fortunate.

To be fair, I was incorrect. Denton is 8a/8b, at a 15 degree avg annual minimum.

[floridaPalmMan 178]

I think it would be more accurate to say it's 9a *^{average minimum over the last 25 years but only after obfuscating contradictory data to come up with a pre-determined conclusion}

Then I'll fully agree

[Teegurr 436]

31 minutes ago, floridaPalmMan said:

I think it would be more accurate to say it's 9a *^{average minimum over the last 25 years but only after obfuscating contradictory data to come up with a pre-determined conclusion}

Then I'll fully agree

Over 30 years as well. I'm using the same method USDA uses. 

[floridaPalmMan 178]

30 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

Over 30 years as well. I'm using the same method USDA uses. 

Ahh ok I didn't see the 30 year post.

What was the purpose or significance of only posting 25 years then?

[Teegurr 436]

17 minutes ago, floridaPalmMan said:

Ahh ok I didn't see the 30 year post.

What was the purpose or significance of only posting 25 years then?

The reason I posted 25 years at first was because I hadn't seen the tool where one can choose a range of years to look at avg minimums on NOAA Houston/Galveston NOW data. I only saw graphs from the years 1997-2021 and I calculated the avg manually. 

[floridaPalmMan 178]

15 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

The reason I posted 25 years at first was because I hadn't seen the tool where one can choose a range of years to look at avg minimums on NOAA Houston/Galveston NOW data. I only saw graphs from the years 1997-2021 and I calculated the avg manually. 

Cool. Welp then congrats on now being 9a!

Hopefully no more insane arctic blasts for another 100 years

[Teegurr 436]

1 hour ago, floridaPalmMan said:

Cool. Welp then congrats on now being 9a!

Hopefully no more insane arctic blasts for another 100 years

Hey, uh dude. I found temps for Lake City 1992-2021 and you're a warm 9a now! (Avg minimum is 24). Congrats!

[floridaPalmMan 178]

13 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

Hey, uh dude. I found temps for Lake City 1992-2021 and you're a warm 9a now! (Avg minimum is 24). Congrats!

ha yea I know there was another thread about the new USDA temps a few months ago and someone made a map from the data showing most of northern florida as 9a now. 

I bought 3 sylvesters immediately after the news and am trying to decide where to plant them. :D

[Teegurr 436]

1 minute ago, floridaPalmMan said:

ha yea I know there was another thread about the new USDA temps a few months ago and someone made a map from the data showing most of northern florida as 9a now. 

I bought 3 sylvesters immediately after the news and am trying to decide where to plant them. :D

Nice! Good luck with the Sylvesters! They are so beautiful. Can you post the thread?

[floridaPalmMan 178]

7 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

Nice! Good luck with the Sylvesters! They are so beautiful. Can you post the thread?

 

[bubba 2,095]

I dislike the USDA Zone concept. Check out the Koppen-Geiger for truth in what will grow. USDA is just a silly game!

Should not a Zone 11 climate be capable of growing tropical palms? What about climates that stay with highs/lows in the 40’s F year round but never hit 39F? Solid Zone 11 but cannot grow a Sabal much less a Coconut!

[Teegurr 436]

53 minutes ago, bubba said:

I dislike the USDA Zone concept. Check out the Koppen-Geiger for truth in what will grow. USDA is just a silly game!

Should not a Zone 11 climate be capable of growing tropical palms? What about climates that stay with highs/lows in the 40’s F year round but never hit 39F? Solid Zone 11 but cannot grow a Sabal much less a Coconut!

Koppen-Geiger is nice, but way too generalized. For example, Orlando and New York City both have a Humid Subtropical climate, but they are very different when it comes to temperatures. I think a combination works. It's fun anyway to say I'm 9a, that's the reason I did this. And nuance nuance nuance. I know USDA hardiness zones aren't perfect, far from it, but they are helpful in determining what will grow and what won't. Heat Index, sunlight hours, precipitation and all that will help too.

[bubba 2,095]

What you said!

[ruskinPalms 912]

On 4/27/2021 at 9:52 PM, Teegurr said:

Koppen-Geiger is nice, but way too generalized. For example, Orlando and New York City both have a Humid Subtropical climate, but they are very different when it comes to temperatures. I think a combination works. It's fun anyway to say I'm 9a, that's the reason I did this. And nuance nuance nuance. I know USDA hardiness zones aren't perfect, far from it, but they are helpful in determining what will grow and what won't. Heat Index, sunlight hours, precipitation and all that will help too.

This is the truth. I would like to see someone make a map that somehow combines the two. Maybe color code the areas and then show plants that can be grown reliably in those areas. I define reliably that they live long enough to reproduce (flower, fruit, seeds). 

[bubba 2,095]

I think Koopen- Geiger is better in areas that approximate Tropical ( ie 64.8 F coldest month) but cannot argue that a distinction must be made between Orlando and NY!

[Emman 84]

I wonder what Augusta, ga minimum temp would be using the last 30 years, I went through some of the noaa data and there are just a whole bunch of 8b/9a winters.

According to most hardiness zone maps we are 8a but I just don't believe that,  with the pics I took of 30 foot tall washingtonia robustas and trucking queen palms, would they survive in a solid zone 8a?

[Teegurr 436]

2 hours ago, Emman said:

I wonder what Augusta, ga minimum temp would be using the last 30 years, I went through some of the noaa data and there are just a whole bunch of 8b/9a winters.

According to most hardiness zone maps we are 8a but I just don't believe that,  with the pics I took of 30 foot tall washingtonia robustas and trucking queen palms, would they survive in a solid zone 8a?

You're correct, you are not 8a. Your average annual minimum for the last 30 years was 16 degrees, so you are 8b. You are a cold 8b though, so those Queens doing so well are a little surprising, but for the past 5 years you've had mild winters (besides 2018).

[Teegurr 436]

Hey by the way guys Phoenix is a warm 10a (34 avg annual minimum) and Yuma is 10b (36).

[palmsOrl 2,042]

Orlando is a solid 10a now, something like 34F at the Executive Airport.

[AnTonY 193]

Houston 1991-2020 is now 9b. Lower end at the main IAH airport, whereas HOU is closer to 10a. Galveston is a weak, weak 10a.

Edited May 3, 2021 by AnTonY

[Emman 84]

10 hours ago, Teegurr said:

You're correct, you are not 8a. Your average annual minimum for the last 30 years was 16 degrees, so you are 8b. You are a cold 8b though, so those Queens doing so well are a little surprising, but for the past 5 years you've had mild winters (besides 2018).

Noaa takes their temp measurements from a flat, open field in Augusta, I think there may be warmer microclimates where temps don't go below 20, especially considering urban heat island effects.

[Collectorpalms 1,996]

NOAA tries to take all temperatures in equivalent areas. It’s usually at an airport near a flat runway. 6Ft off the ground. 

[knikfar 266]

On 4/26/2021 at 6:05 PM, Teegurr said:

I calculated your data, the avg annual minimum for the last 30 years in Montreal is -14.5F. So you are a very cold 5b or 5a/5b.

Can you do the same for me? I'm in Raleigh, NC. Zone 7b according to the 2012 map. 

[JLM 1,208]

25 minutes ago, knikfar said:

Can you do the same for me? I'm in Raleigh, NC. Zone 7b according to the 2012 map. 

Looks like 12.2F is the 30 year average for te Raleigh area, which is Zone 8a!

[knikfar 266]

1 minute ago, JLM said:

Looks like 12.2F is the 30 year average for te Raleigh area, which is Zone 8a!

Thank you, thank you, thank you!! 

[Jimbean 923]

On 4/25/2021 at 6:58 PM, Teegurr said:

Using annual minimums from 1997-2021, the average annual minimum for College Station was 21.92 degrees. That puts us well into hardiness zone 9a! I'm so happy.

1997: 23 (9a)

1998: 24 (9a)

1999: 24 (9a)

2000: 19 (8b)

2001: 24 (9a)

2002: 17 (8b)

2003: 24 (9a)

2004: 25 (9a/9b)

2005: 24 (9a)

2006: 26 (9b)

2007: 21 (9a)

2008: 25 (9a/9b)

2009: 24 (9a)

2010: 18 (8b)

2011: 19 (8b)

2012: 28 (9b)

2013: 28 (9b)

2014: 19 (8b)

2015: 22 (9a)

2016: 22 (9a)

2017: 17 (8b)

2018: 15 (8a/8b)

2019: 26 (9b)

2020: 29 (9b)

2021: 5 (7a/7b)

I finally decided it was time to set the record straight. College Station IS 9a.

Feel free to argue, fellow aggies and everyone else. (I know, I didn't include the cold epoch of the 80s, shudder)

 

Means nothing in real life, in the long term.

[Teegurr 436]

32 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

Means nothing in real life, in the long term.

It might this time - long term, we are indeed getting warmer.

I know about zone-shattering winters. But that's exactly what they are: zone-shattering winters.

It is a rough guideline, and I'm expressing my joy at reaching 9a in CSTX.