Thoughts on El Paso 2011 Freeze and Central/North Texas Freeze 2021

[Collectorpalms]

There has been a lot of talk about how some, maybe quite a few, Washingtonia Robusta ( thin trunked Washingtonia) lived through 1F and two days in the teens in El Paso. Numerous reason have been suggested. 
However, from a meteorological perspective, the weather leading up to the cold in Central Texas in 2021 was not like El Paso in 2011. In the months leading up to the El Paso event, only .18 inches of rain had fallen. Most every night in January was at or below freezing. In contrast College Station had over 4 inches of rain over the winter, and plants were in some growth with above normal temperatures.
Biologically there is a correlation in drought tolerance and cold tolerance. I am not an expect when it comes to the sugars ( someone can elaborate) in plants, but from what I understand that drought stress and period of cold most likely helped the palms in El Paso and other dry climates. 

I do not expect the same results in zones 8 of Texas that were having a normal rainfall.
 

Edited March 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[AnTonY]

It's interesting to see the differences in evolution of the pattern between the two freeze events, despite the fact that both of them were under moderate-strong La Nina events. The overall pattern this year is also quite dry, and there's developing drought as is consistent w/ La Nina. The problem is that there's lot's of noise - all it takes is one freak mid-latitude cyclone, and you suddenly end up w/ 2+ inches of rain in just one single day. 

After the Jan 2021 snow in Central Texas, there was about a week of above normal temperatures to close the month leading into February - that would have lead to the initial growth/blooming process. At the same time, before the major freeze hit, the week before did start seeing much cooler than average conditions - perhaps some easement (unlike that one freak cold snap of Dec 2016 in North Texas)?

[Collectorpalms]

[Collectorpalms]

Yes, strongest La Niña since 2011 as well. It was record hot and dry come spring into summer. 

Edited March 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[PricklyPearSATC]

1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

There has been a lot of talk about how some, maybe quite a few, Washingtonia Robusta ( thin trunked Washingtonia) lived through 1F and two days in the teens in El Paso. Numerous reason have been suggested. 
However, from a meteorological perspective, the weather leading up to the cold in Central Texas in 2021 was not like El Paso in 2011. In the months leading up to the El Paso event, only .18 inches of rain had fallen. Most every night in January was at or below freezing. In contrast College Station had over 4 inches of rain over the winter, and plants were in some growth with above normal temperatures.
Biologically there is a correlation in drought tolerance and cold tolerance. I am not an expect when it comes to the sugars ( someone can elaborate) in plants, but from what I understand that drought stress and period of cold most likely helped the palms in El Paso and other dry climates. 

I do not expect the same results in zones 8 of Texas that were having a normal rainfall.
 

Almost every plant except deciduous trees were actively growing in my yard.  Lantana and salvia were blooming (Well, they rarely take a break, except in summer..LOL)  My plumbago were also blooming. There had not been any freezes.  I think one night it might have gotten down to 30..there was no frostbite on a single plant in my yard.  Usually there is something by Feb 14th.    Almost everything was actively growing.  I kind of think of it as "water" in the plants....when they are actively growing there is water and when it freezes it bursts.  On Feb 14th, my plumbago burst open with a frozen compound.  Everyone on Texas Flora FB was posting this.  Days earlier Austin had the same phenomena with lantana.

(I think tomatoes were already in the ground in some gardens.  )

Image shows "frostweed" phenonmena on plumbago.

Edited March 7, 2021 by PricklyPearSATC

[NBTX11]

I've looked at the data for El Paso in 2011, and a couple things are clear.  1. They got colder than Central Texas got by 4-8 degrees.  2. They also had snowfall associated with their cold (in other words it was a "wet" cold, to a certain extent), and 3.  Cold lingered throughout the month.  There were many single digit and teen lows in EP scattered throughout that month...probably more in total than Central TX received in 2021.

These 3 facts, lead me to the conclusion, that if left alone, there will be a decent amount of Robusta recoveries in San Antonio, Houston, and possibly even Austin.  Will there be deaths, sure, but I for one am expecting recoveries.  I will see if I am right in about 4 months.  I have predicted 50 percent plus Robusta Recover in San Antonio, possibly upwards of 70 percent.  Let's see if I am right.   

Edited March 7, 2021 by NBTX11

[Collectorpalms]

I am not referring to zones 9 like San Antonio to Houston and southward. We did have single digits to zero in Central not south Texas.

I think you missed my point, by reverting back to you, who didn’t have it nearly as bad. Wouldn’t you agree to that?

You missed my point. You are dead set on your prediction. You might be right for zone 9. But I am referring to Central and North Texas. Thanks.

p.s. What is your prediction for College Station?

Edited March 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[NBTX11]

13 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

I am not referring to zones 9 like San Antonio to Houston and southward. We did have single digits to zero in Central not south Texas.

I think you missed my point, by reverting back to you, who didn’t have it nearly as bad. Wouldn’t you agree to that?

You missed my point. You are dead set on your prediction. You might be right for zone 9. But I am referring to Central and North Texas. Thanks.

OK, I get it.  I also predicted there would be mass casualties north of Austin, with few recoveries.  So maybe we actually agree.  I don't live in Austin or north, so my prediction is for the San Antonio area.  I predict 50-70 percent of Washingtonia Robusta and Hybrids will recover (probably virtually all of moderate trunk hybrids).  The official 3 coldest nights for San Antonio, taken at the airport on the north side, was 9, 12, and 13.  With one other night at 19 and another at 26.  Those were the 5 coldest nights.

Just as a side note, my Filifera are putting out new green leaves rapidly that look absolutely great.  Vibrant green with little to no damage.  

 

Edited March 7, 2021 by NBTX11

[Collectorpalms]

I know you said you think your warmer than your NWS, but they updated their temperatures. 

[NBTX11]

Ouch those are cold, yeah the NB airport is way out in an open field out of town.  I looked at all the weather underground sites near my house and none of them dropped below 9 degrees.  Ever.  And I got up at 5 and 6 am to check temperatures.  I actually didn't see any drop below 10, but I am sure 9 may have snuck in there at some point.  I have a hard time believing if we dropped to 3, there would be zero, like none, damage to Sabals and Filifera are sprouting new green undamaged leaves like lightning already.  I posted the pictures of them in the other thread, but here are examples.   My large Filifera is doing the same thing already, pushing several green fronds that look really good.

Edited March 7, 2021 by NBTX11

[jwitt]

32 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

I am not referring to zones 9 like San Antonio to Houston and southward. We did have single digits to zero in Central not south Texas.

I think you missed my point, by reverting back to you, who didn’t have it nearly as bad. Wouldn’t you agree to that?

You missed my point. You are dead set on your prediction. You might be right for zone 9. But I am referring to Central and North Texas. Thanks.

p.s. What is your prediction for College Station?

I think 2011  knocked out most robustas in N Texas, we'll at least the DFW portion of N Texas. Seem to recall El Paso had 2 nights of about zero and a third night of 7 in 2011. 

It was a much deeper cold in El Paso,  with a quicker return to sunshine.

[Meangreen94z]

As mentioned I think with the minimal preceding rain the soil, roots,  and palms had dried out and could take considerably more cold. A snow after it had already dropped below freezing just acts as insulation. It’s no different than any other plant acclimated to the desert, there’s Agave/cactus I owned that take mid teens in Tucson undamaged but took severe damage from brief ice and mid 20’s in Austin.

[Ivanos1982]

I think you are right I am always surprised when I visit my brother in Dallas how there aren't many palm trees there even though it's zone 8. In El Paso we have a lot of palms. They grow very quick there. I always tell my brother he should plant palms in his yard but he likes to use it as a soccer field lol so that's a no. I live in Houston and it's a totally different monster here. I am trying to grow bougainvilleas and they just wont bloom and are always full of pests. In El Paso mines were always blooming. I can grow queen palms here so I would stick my tongue out to my mom about it.... well up till this frost. I guess the reason I point out that some robustas in El Paso made it is to give a little bit of hope. It's easy to be impatient here. Just give your palms time. My queens in Houston have looked like torched feathers since the artic blast but they are moving... my neighbor has been asking me when I'm gonna cut them down... they just dont want ugly hahaha in El Paso we have ugly every winter. People there are used to seeing palms brown every single winter. Just part of living there. They come back. Some don't and many died during the 2011 freeze but the ones people replaced with 5 gallons are already 7 or 10 feet. There were a few survivors and it may be weather related but these palms are pesty. I had seedlings growing in cracks of my asphalt. We had to remove them or they would push the cement outwards. They are tough.