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JLM

Northern Hemisphere Spring 2021

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JLM

I believe we might be in a "fake spring" right now, but at the same time i dont. At least over the next 14 days most of the eastern US is in the Above Average side of the scale which is what we all want to see! I have been having highs in the upper 70's with some areas making it up to 80F-83F up this way pretty much all week long. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of them all before a cold front comes through a knocks temps back down, highs subsequently in the upper 60's expected next week. By the later half of next week, we are back into the 70's for highs. Personally at this point i dont see anymore cold blasts occuring, at least ones that cause freezing temperatures on the Gulf Coast. Trees are beginning to bloom here and my Iris clump has a flower stalk ready to bloom, which is new as of this week. Ill be watching for more tree blooming activity within the next few weeks, i feel like more trees besides Maples will begin blooming (such as River Birches, Bradford Pears, etc...) within the next 2 weeks or so. I dont know, maybe its just me? Is anyone questioning whether or not Spring has started yet?

Edited by JLM
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Sabal_Louisiana

I dread any time of the year when there might be bad freezes or hurricanes. The rest of the year is immaterial.

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Matthew92

Usually we seem to have one last cold wave in March with even a light freeze. This reminds me of 2018. Freezes in January, but come mid-late Feb, it was a torch with temps close to 80 deg. Then in March got in the 30's more than once.

Although looking at the forecast and long range guidance, I don't see any significant cold wave on the horizon. I hope we don't get one because most of my citrus trees are going to have a good bloom. Interestingly, that last freeze event we got (that coincided with Texas' cold)- my citrus were already just starting to flush out, got to 27-28 deg the first night, and then 26 the next, but they thankfully weren't damaged.

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JLM
13 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Usually we seem to have one last cold wave in March with even a light freeze. This reminds me of 2018. Freezes in January, but come mid-late Feb, it was a torch with temps close to 80 deg. Then in March got in the 30's more than once.

Although looking at the forecast and long range guidance, I don't see any significant cold wave on the horizon. I hope we don't get one because most of my citrus trees are going to have a good bloom. Interestingly, that last freeze event we got (that coincided with Texas' cold)- my citrus were already just starting to flush out, got to 27-28 deg the first night, and then 26 the next, but they thankfully weren't damaged.

My two largest Queens got some minor damage. The one in the backyard, the areas that wasnt protected is a light brownish color. The largest in the front yard, leaflets are shriveling up on the oldest frond which is also northern facing. Even though we had a low of 24, the wind was an issue as the wind chill got down to about 13F that night. The backyard Queen is already proceeding with growth, and is already starting to pick up speed. Funny enough, the youngest Queen exhibits no damage thus far.
Something else ive noticed, the worker bees are out looking for spots on my fence. Ive also noticed some honey bees as well, so the insects are starting to respond to the warm spell too.

Edited by JLM
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Silas_Sancona

After what happened last week,.. i would be hesitant to tempt fate and just let the clock run out, patiently.... 

On one hand..



Yet:

So...

Not even going to pull the plug on winter, even here -yet. Getting close.. but..  Not that they're reliable anyway, but last several runs of the CFS ( on Pivitol ) have been all over the place and weirdly cold for so late in the month in the west esp., after trying to drive another big block o' cold across the east/ southeast.. Starting to wonder if there's some weird glitch going on with all model data lately. ( Personally, I blame the freeze, lol )

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JLM
1 minute ago, Silas_Sancona said:

After what happened last week,.. i would be hesitant to tempt fate and just let the clock run out, patiently.... 

On one hand..



Yet:

So...

Not even going to pull the plug on winter, even here -yet. Getting close.. but..  Not that they're reliable anyway, but last several runs of the CFS ( on Pivitol ) have been all over the place and weirdly cold for so late in the month in the west esp., after trying to drive another big block o' cold across the east/ southeast.. Starting to wonder if there's some weird glitch going on with all model data lately. ( Personally, I blame the freeze, lol )

Haha the models dont know what to think anymore!

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Matthew92
5 minutes ago, JLM said:

My two largest Queens got some minor damage. The one in the backyard, the areas that wasnt protected is a light brownish color. The largest in the front yard, leaflets are shriveling up on the oldest fronds which is also northern facing. Even though we had a low of 24, the wind was an issue as the wind chill got down to about 13F that night. The backyard Queen is already proceeding with growth, and is already starting to pick up speed. Funny enough, the youngest Queen exhibits no damage thus far.
Something else ive noticed, the worker bees are out looking for spots on my fence. Ive also noticed some honey bees as well, so the insects are starting to respond to the warm spell too.

It's amazing with the difference between me and you (you being north of Pcola and me in Okaloosa County North of Destin) with 27 deg being the lowest I saw in my town in that event. The eastern edge of that arctic airmass that gave Texas cold was right over the Panhandle. The freezing line stopped right about in Walton county.

Edited by Matthew92
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JLM
1 minute ago, Matthew92 said:

It's amazing with the difference between me and you (you being north of Pcola and me in Okaloosa County North of Destin) with that cold airmass as the coldest reading I saw with that event in my town was 27 deg.

I know! The difference between me and Mobile as well, Mobile reached 19F. So between the Niceville area (assuming since its north of Destin) and Mobile, there was almost a 10F temperature difference. 

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Silas_Sancona
1 minute ago, JLM said:

Haha the models dont know what to think anymore!

:lol: Agree.. Today's 12z CFS was suggesting lows in the teens for the Central Valley ( in California ) ..around the 23rd of March.. Seriously something wrong with that data.

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Collectorpalms

Is Southern California overdue for a big freeze?

NOLA to Florida Will be coming up in the next decade.

This year ( Spring) the risk is over. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

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GottmitAlex
21 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

Is Southern California overdue for a big freeze?

NOLA to Florida Will be coming up in the next decade.

This year ( Spring) the risk is over. 

?

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Silas_Sancona
13 minutes ago, GottmitAlex said:

?

¿ :D

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GottmitAlex
27 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

¿ :D

Don't go there!

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Teegurr

Did we actually get frost here in BCS, or it dew or something? We were only supposed to go down to 40.

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JLM

Bradford Pears are beginning to flower and leaf out, Maples are producing leaves, leaves beginning to grow in size and turn green. No movement yet on the oaks, birches, or crape myrtles which are the biggest shade producers in my yard. Once the Crape Myrtles start blooming then it should be okay to start planting stuff. Ill wait on my foxtail for a while, maybe until May. Im thinking of fertilizing the Queens within the next 2 weeks if we dont dip down into the low 40's again.

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Matthew92
2 hours ago, JLM said:

Bradford Pears are beginning to flower and leaf out, Maples are producing leaves, leaves beginning to grow in size and turn green. No movement yet on the oaks, birches, or crape myrtles which are the biggest shade producers in my yard. Once the Crape Myrtles start blooming then it should be okay to start planting stuff. Ill wait on my foxtail for a while, maybe until May. Im thinking of fertilizing the Queens within the next 2 weeks if we dont dip down into the low 40's again.

Same here. It got to 39 deg this morning here. I highly (and hopefully) doubt we're going to have a freeze or frost again though. I'm starting many seeds right now in trays and small pots- but I have to bring them inside the house in the evening due to the cool/colder temps.

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JLM
Just now, Matthew92 said:

Same here. It got to 39 deg this morning here. I highly (and hopefully) doubt we're going to have a freeze or frost again though. I'm starting many seeds right now in trays and small pots- but I have to bring them inside the house in the evening due to the cool/colder temps.

Ive had seeds going for a little bit now, most of them are Bismarckia so probably wont see any above soil movement until early-mid April at the earliest. I took the plastic covering off my greenhouse today so i could use it as shelf space, im running out of room for stuff lol
I was looking out the back door this morning, sun was shining through the trees, and noticed on the large maple in the neighbor's backyard some green, checked it out this morning and sure enough the leaves are turning from red to green as they keep growing. Oh the joys of Spring! (The tree is really close to the fence so its not that hard to look it lol)
As for frost and freeze, i highly doubt we will see another freeze but another frost would seem possible after any cold front over the next two to three weeks. Past that, its go time!

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amh

The second half of March through the second week of April might be interesting.

Edited by amh

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JLM

Noticing movement with the river birches, maples ever so slowly growing in their leaves. Bradford Pears going pretty quickly with flowering. There's another tree behind my neighbors house in the tree line that is starting to flower, but they are yellow flowers. Looks interesting actually, it stands out pretty well.

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Silas_Sancona

Forgot to post but here's the latest thoughts from the CPC as we head into Spring..  Again, take these forecasts thoughts w/ a grain of salt....  Were not all that great for the winter. ( i'd give the forecasts a C - , at best )

  Here, at least, looks like after this week's cool spell,  the " Calendar " start of spring brings back the 80s/80s+ and locks 'em in for the remainder of the month.. We'll see though, still some back and forth between models/individual, day to day model runs.

Do anticipate the potential for severe weather across the S. Plains to start increasing shortly.  Guaranteed storm chasers are chomping at the bit right now.  Wish i could head out for a week this year myself.   Continuing to watch where the core of spring heat sets up/ where above/below normal precip trends set up over the plains come later in May and June. 

Same update continues hints of a much better summer set up here across the Southwest precip.-wise.  Also keeping an eye on ENSO..  La Nina looks to be ending.. but what lies ahead could go in either direction.

Anyway, the suggested Precip. / Temperature plots for the next 3 months:  We'll see if these do better this time around.

Precip:

Apr:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead1.html

May:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead2.html

June:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead3.html


Temperatures:

April:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

May:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html


June:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html

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JLM
3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Forgot to post but here's the latest thoughts from the CPC as we head into Spring..  Again, take these forecasts thoughts w/ a grain of salt....  Were not all that great for the winter. ( i'd give the forecasts a C - , at best )

  Here, at least, looks like after this week's cool spell,  the " Calendar " start of spring brings back the 80s/80s+ and locks 'em in for the remainder of the month.. We'll see though, still some back and forth between models/individual, day to day model runs.

Do anticipate the potential for severe weather across the S. Plains to start increasing shortly.  Guaranteed storm chasers are chomping at the bit right now.  Wish i could head out for a week this year myself.   Continuing to watch where the core of spring heat sets up/ where above/below normal precip trends set up over the plains come later in May and June. 

Same update continues hints of a much better summer set up here across the Southwest precip.-wise.  Also keeping an eye on ENSO..  La Nina looks to be ending.. but what lies ahead could go in either direction.

Anyway, the suggested Precip. / Temperature plots for the next 3 months:  We'll see if these do better this time around.

Precip:

Apr:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead1.html

May:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead2.html

June:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead3.html


Temperatures:

April:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

May:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html


June:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html

Im pretty concerned for the severe weather aspect of this Spring, some big chasers (Reed Timmer and some others) are mentioning that this season is shaping up to be similar to 2011. The 2011 severe season showcased widespread severe weather and tornadoes from the Mid Atlantic, Midwest, Plains, and Southeast. And among the outbreaks that year, the April 27th outbreak stands out a lot.

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Silas_Sancona
2 hours ago, JLM said:

Im pretty concerned for the severe weather aspect of this Spring, some big chasers (Reed Timmer and some others) are mentioning that this season is shaping up to be similar to 2011. The 2011 severe season showcased widespread severe weather and tornadoes from the Mid Atlantic, Midwest, Plains, and Southeast. And among the outbreaks that year, the April 27th outbreak stands out a lot.

Have heard the same thing.. Will be interesting to see what happens. Focus could be more east of the " traditional " zone as well.

 

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