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Collectorpalms

Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989

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Xenon
3 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Considering we are technically a 8b/9a climate, we were due for a 20 degree night, which we haven't seen since 2011, I believe.  If memory serves me correct, 16 and 19 are the coldest temps I have seen since the early 2000's when I got here, and those were in back to back winters of 2010 and 11.  I lost a fairly decent size queen palm to the 16 degrees.  Saw quite a few survivors though around.  W. Robusta browned out some but recovered fast. 

Pretty sure you saw around 20 degrees or less in 2014, 2017, and 2018. 

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NBTX11
3 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Pretty sure you saw around 20 degrees or less in 2014, 2017, and 2018. 

Maybe 20+, but I think I would have remembered if we got into the teens.

The only two times I remember seeing teens since 2004 when I got here was in 2010 and 2011.  Am I wrong?  I don't feel like digging through 10 years of records. 

Let's put it this way.  In 17 years, my W. Robusta's have had burned exterior fronds exactly twice.  Other than that they have stayed green alll winter.

Edited by NBTX11

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Collectorpalms
6 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Maybe 20+, but I think I would have remembered if we got into the teens.

The only two times I remember seeing teens since 2004 when I got here was in 2010 and 2011.  

I saw 17 in 2010 and 2011. 2011 was much worse because of wind. 2018 I went to 14.5 after a forecast of 17. That was the worst. And it may have only been 3 hours below 17, but more hours of cold. 
it’s tricky here, I still have over 100 palms however. Several volunteers seedlings are now mature. Most winters a barely get to 30. This year I did get 6 inches of heavy wet snow that took 3 days to completely melt and did go to 27. 

42D871FD-526B-4FEC-A687-9F69691A5BF3.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms
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NBTX11

Without digging up a bunch or records and maps, I feel like I am about 2 or 3 degrees warmer than College Station.  Certainly quite a bit further south anyways.  Where I am at is south of Central Houston.  I got nothing in terms of snow this year.  Literally nothing other than 10 min of sleet.

Edited by NBTX11

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Xenon
8 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Maybe 20+, but I think I would have remembered if we got into the teens.

The only two times I remember seeing teens since 2004 when I got here was in 2010 and 2011.  Am I wrong?  I don't feel like digging through 10 years of records. 

Let's put it this way.  In 17 years, my W. Robusta's have had burned exterior fronds exactly twice.  Other than that they have stayed green alll winter.

I saw upper teens in 2014, 2017, and 2018. Was cold enough to kill some queens and nuke Bismarckia. I live right on the western edge of the "long term (past 30 years) queen palm zone" along the Houston I-10 corridor. Go a few miles west, north, or even south and large queen palms (pre-2010) disappear completely. There are also several mature Bismarckia in my area that are pre-2010. 

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Collectorpalms
8 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Without digging up a bunch or records and maps, I feel like I am about 2 or 3 degrees warmer than College Station.  Certainly quite a bit further south anyways.  Where I am at is south of Central Houston.

Do you mean New Braunfels, TX according to your file. I am near texas A&M And surrounded by hotels. so I am a bit sheltered and about 5 degrees warmer than just outside of town on cold clear nights. This year with snow I was colder than 2 miles south that had less snow. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

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NBTX11
3 minutes ago, Xenon said:

I saw upper teens in 2014, 2017, and 2018. Was cold enough to kill some queens and nuke Bismarckia. I live right on the western edge of the "long term (past 30 years) queen palm zone" along the Houston I-10 corridor. Go a few miles west, north, or even south and large queen palms (pre-2010) disappear completely. There are also several mature Bismarckia in my area that are pre-2010. 

Xenon do you have pre 1980 Canary Island Date Palms in Katy.  I feel like my area is similar to Katy.  We do have a number of old CIDP still surviving from pre 1983.    

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NBTX11
4 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Do you mean New Braunfels, TX according to your file. I am near texas A&M And surrounded by hotels. so I am a bit sheltered and about 5 degrees warmer than just outside of town on cold clear nights. This year with snow I was colder than 2 miles south that had less snow. 

I am literally a few hundred feet from I35 in New Braunfels.  Right on the central I35 heat zone.  Where I am at is warmer than the NB airport, and warmer than northern Bexar County, and the N. side of SA. (probably a lot warmer than northern Bexar actually). 

Edited by NBTX11

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AnTonY

@NBTX11

I agree. The pattern is precarious, the entire forecast literally hinges on the threads of a few shortwaves out in the North Pacific. How those evolve and interact with the TPV determine everything.

The GFS really wants to kill Texas. In that solution, the shortwaves contort the entire complex to dig a huge connected trough over the Western US/Texas, which knifes the strong Arctic high straight south - there's been some slight moderation regarding the low temperatures compared to prior solutions, but still very cold. Let's say Jan 2018 levels, more or less?

The Euro solutions provide better case scenarios. Not only does the TPV weaken quite a bit in that model, it also has far more eastward movement, along w/ more detachment from the forming trough complex over the Western US. As a result, the surface high has more eastward component, with not near as strong of a cold push into Texas - and that's even factoring in how dense and forceful these airmasses tend to be in reality vs model guidance. It'd be more like the Jan 2007 event - or, at very worst, that one cold spell in the otherwise mild Jan 2017.

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Collectorpalms
25 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Xenon do you have pre 1980 Canary Island Date Palms in Katy.  I feel like my area is similar to Katy.  We do have a number of old CIDP still surviving from pre 1983.    

When I moved to Texas over 20 years ago. I saw Mature pre 1980s canaries mainly south of downtown Houston. Most are gone to disease. Maybe 1 robusta in Montrose. All others were killed. I worked and lived near Katy, didn’t recall seeing any pre1980s. I saw Many older palms from San Antonio post 1949. Or Maybe San Antonio they were always more in abundance as its a more arid climate and houston just has more diversity of plants.

Edited by Collectorpalms

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NBTX11
3 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

When I moved to Texas over 20 years ago. I saw Mature pre 1980s canaries mainly south of downtown Houston. Most are gone to disease. I worked and lived near Katy, didn’t recall seeing any pre1980s. I saw Many older palms from San Antonio post 1949. 

Why did they survive in great numbers in San Antonio and not Houston?  I can count many pre 1980 CIDP in New Braunfels actually.  One died about a year ago that was from like 1950, no joke.  The house was a 1950's house and the trunk was really gnarly and mangled and it finally died last year of age. If you are ever in the area I will show you where they are.

Edited by NBTX11

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Xenon
2 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Xenon do you have pre 1980 Canary Island Date Palms in Katy.  I feel like my area is similar to Katy.  We do have a number of old CIDP still surviving from pre 1983.    

There is a significant drop-off in temperature even in "old Katy" vs "new Katy" (where I'm at).  The rough divide is Grand Parkway/SH 99, about 4-5 miles east of Katy proper. There are no pre-2010 (or very few) queens in old Katy vs their abundance a few miles east...it's like night and day. There wasn't much development here 30 years ago though growth has really boomed in the past 20 years which is probably contributing to warmer lows overall in "new Katy". 

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Xenon
Just now, NBTX11 said:

Why did they survive in great numbers in San Antonio and not Houston?  I can count many pre 1980 CIDP in New Braunfels actually.  One died about a year ago that was from like 1950, no joke.  The house was a 1950's house and the trunk was really gnarly and mangled and it finally died last year of age. 

There were lots of pre-89 CIDP in Houston. >90% of the survivors succumbed to disease (Texas Phoenix palm decline?) over the last 15-20 years, quite sad. 

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Collectorpalms
12 minutes ago, Xenon said:

There were lots of pre-89 CIDP in Houston. >90% of the survivors succumbed to disease (Texas Phoenix palm decline?) over the last 15-20 years, quite sad. 

It’s ironic I have seen more mature cold hardier palms die of disease than cold now. I think the Houston Filifera are nearly gone too.

Edited by Collectorpalms

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AnTonY

@Xenon

I've always wondered why Houston doesn't use more sabal palms? Those palms are bullet proof compared to washingtonia in terms of the worst the Houston area has seen regarding Arctic outbreaks - at least according to the hardiness data (it might be less hardy than people suggest).

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NBTX11

Filifera is King in San Antonio.  If those died out, half of the really old palms would be gone.

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Xenon
1 minute ago, AnTonY said:

@Xenon

I've always wondered why Houston doesn't use more sabal palms? Those palms are bullet proof compared to washingtonia in terms of the worst the Houston area has seen regarding Arctic outbreaks - at least according to the hardiness data (it might be less hardy than people suggest).

Washies and queens grow fast. Sabal is slooooow and that's why you mostly see them in commercial landscapes with the money to truck in full grown specimens. Livistona decora deserves to be planted more too; always love seeing them along I-45. 

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Collectorpalms

18z GFS just won’t give it up. It now has -3 in Dallas for Tuesday. ( with snow cover over most of Texas and Louisiana and New Mexico, Mississippi Alabama too. )

I just don’t ( want to?) believe it. 

Who is running the models?

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Meangreen94z

There’s some pretty old Phoenix in the Clearlake area south of Houston. A lot of them are mixed in /covered with trees that obviously date to the 60’s or 70’s. You just have to drive around and look in the older neighborhoodsfile.php?id=64227

This house has some huge ones in the back. You see one in the rear of the photo, and two hiding behind the leaning Butia on the right file.php?id=66528

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Swolte
1 hour ago, NBTX11 said:

Not even close.  Heck, I doubt this will even kill off any queen palms in my area, unless the forecast gets a lot lower than currently predicted. (zone 9a low 20's type cold). 

Most of what I planted should, in theory, be able to handle 15f (so with protection I should be OK), however, what worries me is the length of time we'll see freezing temps. That, in combination with the rain and wind. Not to mention the realistic possibility of it getting (much) worse.  

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Meangreen94z
Just now, Swolte said:

Most of what I planted should, in theory, be able to handle 15f (so with protection I should be OK), however, what worries me is the length of time we'll see freezing temps. That, in combination with the rain and wind. Not to mention the realistic possibility of it getting (much) worse.  

The fact it has to start raining late tonight/ early morning way in advance means I need to bring in everything I can now into my garage, etc. I have a lot more than palms. 

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Collectorpalms

527A3295-A9EF-44AF-83C0-CB193E924E81.jpeg

91582CFF-65F1-434F-AB93-11F68A015EC1.jpeg

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Collectorpalms
21 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

There’s some pretty old Phoenix in the Clearlake area south of Houston. A lot of them are mixed in /covered with trees that obviously date to the 60’s or 70’s. You just have to drive around and look in the older neighborhoodsfile.php?id=64227

This house has some huge ones in the back. You see one in the rear of the photo, and two hiding behind the leaning Butia on the right file.php?id=66528

The leaning pair of Butia must have had shady friends at one time. 

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kinzyjr

Hoping the best for all of you and your gardens over there!

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AnTonY

@RJ

@NorCalKing

The Appalachians definitely help when it comes to mitigating cold air from the interior. Especially the case with these types of wintry Arctic outbreaks, where the airmasses tend to be shallow. With peaks up to 6000ft in elevation, that should be more than enough to stop everything right up through the 850mb level. Even with the deeper cold air, there should still be much mitigation due to compressional heating - about 5°F for every 1000ft.

I believe that the Apps are often underestimated because the most prominent elevations and highest ranges are all in North Carolina and Virginia, territories of which get sufficiently cold enough (in the eyes of most people) that the differences from the interior just aren't paid as much attention to. Especially the case as the mountains are still pretty N/S orientated, causing a CAD effect that can often end up "finishing the job" started by initial arctic high pressures coming down from Canada.

Having that said, in the case of this event (as per current solutions), the protection from the SE is coming more as a result of the West Atlantic/Bahamas high pressure ridge, rather than the Appalachians.

Edited by AnTonY
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NBTX11
30 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

There’s some pretty old Phoenix in the Clearlake area south of Houston. A lot of them are mixed in /covered with trees that obviously date to the 60’s or 70’s. You just have to drive around and look in the older neighborhoodsfile.php?id=64227

This house has some huge ones in the back. You see one in the rear of the photo, and two hiding behind the leaning Butia on the right file.php?id=66528

Forget the date palms, I'm more interested in the Butias in this photo!

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NBTX11
32 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

527A3295-A9EF-44AF-83C0-CB193E924E81.jpeg

91582CFF-65F1-434F-AB93-11F68A015EC1.jpeg

The NWS is not jiving with your maps.  They are showing a low of 24 or 25 for San Antonio on Sunday and Monday and that is the coldest.

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JLM

If i were y'all, i would look at all the models, take their forecasted low temps for each night during the cold period, then average them together. Would be a general concensus and you will probably be somewhere near the temperature range. Compare it to the NWS forecasted lows for each night during the cold period.
Dont ever pay attention to just one model, it will get you worrying for nothing.
Hoping the best!

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AnTonY

@NBTX11

I believe that it was mentioned earlier in the thread,  the concern is that the NWS tends to be far too conservative with their forecasts, and things could bust much lower than predicted, especially with the wintry precip that could happen. 

Having that said, there's still plenty of uncertainty with the pattern evolution, given the differences between the GFS, EURO, ICON,etc.

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AnTonY

@RJ

A key factor that hurts Texas regarding stability in warm, winter weather is the recurring tendency of lower heights over that whole SW US and Baja/Northern Mexico region. It doesn't matter whether it is small shortwaves or huge, long-wave bowling balls, there's always some type of upper level low pressure finding its way into that region. I literally have not ever seen a period of sustained ridging in that area.

Obviously, it leads to a lot of issues in the land of free-flowing air-masses. Many a warm winter spell interrupted by the surface lows induced by these upper level troughs -  dreary overcast, cold rain, as well as wintry precip during even more intense Arctic outbreaks. And the spring time version of this creates severe weather effects, or just prolonged heavy rain events (see: 2015 Memorial Day Floods, 2016 April Floods, etc)

There's a particular upper air look associated with such events, a huge trough over the Northern US, which then outruns an equatorward portion/cut-off left over in the SW US - they call it the "McFarland Signature,"  and it's associated with the worst of Texas arctic air outbreaks.  It's a similar synoptic look that you have with CAD events east of the Appalachians. So, essentially, you can think of the Texas temp swings (and their extensions across the Northern Gulf of Mexico) as one gigantic CAD event.

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Xenon

There are/were many CIDP even taller/older than the ones pictured close to town in Houston in the older neighborhoods. There's still one on Buffalo Bayou in East Downtown that was in good condition when I last saw it a year ago. 

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climate change virginia
3 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

I saw 17 in 2010 and 2011. 2011 was much worse because of wind. 2018 I went to 14.5 after a forecast of 17. That was the worst. And it may have only been 3 hours below 17, but more hours of cold. 
it’s tricky here, I still have over 100 palms however. Several volunteers seedlings are now mature. Most winters a barely get to 30. This year I did get 6 inches of heavy wet snow that took 3 days to completely melt and did go to 27. 

42D871FD-526B-4FEC-A687-9F69691A5BF3.jpeg

MAN! In the DMV we never get snow over 2 inches at a time

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Xenon

@RJ

Record lows at similar latitudes/proximity form the coast for Texas and the SE Atlantic are pretty similar until you get into peninsular Florida i.e Houston and Jacksonville, Austin and Tallahassee, Dallas and Macon. Dallas actually has a slightly higher record low than Macon, Georgia. 

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NBTX11
7 minutes ago, Xenon said:

@RJ

Record lows at similar latitudes/proximity form the coast for Texas and the SE Atlantic are pretty similar until you get into peninsular Florida i.e Houston and Jacksonville, Austin and Tallahassee, Dallas and Macon. Dallas actually has a slightly higher record low than Macon, Georgia. 

Yes, that's true. 

I can't tell you the dozens and dozens and dozens of countless times when there was an arctic outbreak and there was a ridge over Texas, and the cold air poured east directly in the Southeast. and spared Texas, especially Central and South TX.  I've watched this happen 100 times.  I've watched it be 80 in San Antonio and somewhere like Georgia is having freezing temps, for example.  I've watched it be 30 or 40 degrees warmer here than the FL panhandle during a cold spell as the cold poured more towards FL.  I follow weather patterns.

Yet, every time Texas gets a cold blast, someone says, "wow, look how cold it gets in Texas".  Like that never happens in the SE and deep south.  SMH.  Folks this is a real thing.  Sometimes the coldest air goes much further east than Texas.  It literally happens all the time, usually several times per winter.

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Xenon

Here is the old CIDP that miraculously hasn't died from disease yet. This is the view from a bridge, so it's much taller than it looks. 

oldphoenixcanariensis.thumb.JPG.4c1337b41d684f690ad7b963e404b29a.JPG

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NBTX11
32 minutes ago, climate change virginia said:

MAN! In the DMV we never get snow over 2 inches at a time

College Station, where this photo is, essentially averages 0 snowfall per year.  One site says 0.2 inches per year.

For example, here are some other cities average snowfall.  Atlanta 2.9 inches, Macon 0.7, Columbia SC 0.5, Charleston SC 0.5, Savannah GA 0.3, Virginia Beach 5.8.  So College Station averages less than all of those cities.

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AnTonY
1 hour ago, NBTX11 said:

Yes, that's true. 

I can't tell you the dozens and dozens and dozens of countless times when there was an arctic outbreak and there was a ridge over Texas, and the cold air poured east directly in the Southeast. and spared Texas, especially Central and South TX.  I've watched this happen 100 times.  I've watched it be 80 in San Antonio and somewhere like Georgia is having freezing temps, for example.  I've watched it be 30 or 40 degrees warmer here than the FL panhandle during a cold spell as the cold poured more towards FL.  I follow weather patterns.

Yet, every time Texas gets a cold blast, someone says, "wow, look how cold it gets in Texas".  Like that never happens in the SE and deep south.  SMH.  Folks this is a real thing.  Sometimes the coldest air goes much further east than Texas.  It literally happens all the time, usually several times per winter.

It's possible that they are referring more to the degree of temperature change/swing within a given time, rather than necessarily the magnitude of cold.

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Collectorpalms

No one is complaining... yet?

Oh and the latest Model run ( I do not work for the models)

COLDER FOR SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON! LOL

gfs_T2m_scus_fh156_trend.gif

and more Frozen precip along the gulf...

 

gfs_asnow_scus_fh210_trend.gif

Edited by Collectorpalms
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NorCalKing

Can you say 24° for Houston, Monday???

Damn! What's Dallas going to end up?

 

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Collectorpalms
34 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

Can you say 24° for Houston, Monday???

Damn! What's Dallas going to end up?

 

Dallas eh? Well Here as of now on day 1 of the Big Blast, Big Dipper, Blue Norther,  per National Weather Service.

image.jpeg.99b6582d00cb5a86d8b502f6df0486e1.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms

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