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Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989

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Collectorpalms
According to NWS North Texas: coldest
temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989*. 

(*Possible...)

 

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Meangreen94z

I’ll come dig my old Jubaea x Syagrus out of your yard for free tomorrow?:D

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Collectorpalms
15 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

I’ll come dig my old Jubaea x Syagrus out of your yard for free tomorrow?:D

...... lol, Ok but bring it back in March. I’ll have several new holes all the sudden coming available. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Meangreen94z

Hopefully it ends up being milder than the latest forecast youre  showing.  

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Collectorpalms

I have never seen anything this cold in 25 years of forecasting here. But as a climatologist/plant enthusiast I knew a 80s event was overdue for our area. 
When Hurricane Katrina was growing in the GULF headed for New Orleans, I recall the moment the NHC put out a statement that stated: anyone remaining in the landfall zone faces “certain death” That was pretty powerful. Well while it wasn't certain death, it was pretty close for anyone near the storm surge, but as it weakened just before landfall the winds backed down to 150mph. I went through the eye of that hurricane stuck on the freeway. I survived. 
 

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Allen

I'm not saying not to prepare but these same models had some parts of TN last week at -16F.  We got down to 22F.  So be advised they CAN be totally wrong.  I have seen this model spit out BS for several years now.  But always be ready to protect if you can.

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Meangreen94z

Weather Channel shows 17*F on Saturday, Accuweather shows 11*F. I’m playing it safe both ways, but praying for the weather channel forecast 

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TexasColdHardyPalms

Copious amounts of frost cloth have been used the last few days

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Collectorpalms
49 minutes ago, Allen said:

I'm not saying not to prepare but these same models had some parts of TN last week at -16F.  We got down to 22F.  So be advised they CAN be totally wrong.  I have seen this model spit out BS for several years now.  But always be ready to protect if you can.

Well what I do have is plenty of frost cloth.

what I do not have is a heat source if it’s really that cold windy and wet with long duration.

i invested in led xmas lights and Damn I saw those regular c9 at Home Depot over the holiday and just couldn’t convince myself to buy them. I wanted the LED, but knew the regulars could be handy one day.... grrrr 

..... prepare for -16 and and pray to the weather gods “only” 22. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

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jimmyt

I have frost cloth, plankets, gutter heater cables, brooder lights!  Forecast for NW Waco is between 12-16 F.  Coldest temperature on record for Waco TX is -6.5 F on January 31, 1949.  Low of 8F about 10 years ago killed 2 established 8 ft W. robustas for me. The Ice Man cometh!  Brrrr!

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jwitt

I know they just lowered the temp outlook here(NM) and Texas with this Arctic outbreak.  Just throw this in the back pocket for reference. In February 2011, the NWS did not forecast anything close to our actual lows(-10f) until less than 24 hours, and even then, it was worse than forecast.

 

Hopefully they are overblowing this and thankfully it is February as opposed to November. Good luck all.

 

 

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Collectorpalms
13 minutes ago, jwitt said:

I know they just lowered the temp outlook here(NM) and Texas with this Arctic outbreak.  Just throw this in the back pocket for reference. In February 2011, the NWS did not forecast anything close to our actual lows(-10f) until less than 24 hours, and even then, it was worse than forecast.

 

Hopefully they are overblowing this and thankfully it is February as opposed to November. Good luck all.

 

 

When working for the NWS or NHC they play it safe. They don’t like to change their forecast much. Hurts ego.

The wild Forecast are because models don’t agree overall and you have forecasters picking one or another office blending the two. 
So far the GFS forecast was too slow with the cold that has punched temporarily into north Texas red river. So as a real forecaster you have to see the data as it’s verifying or not. Then plug that into the models. 

latest GFS not nearly as bad for College Station, just bad. (13), 60 hours below 32. 
Still looks bad, air mass overall not nearly as cold over the USA. Now wonder what European model does. 

94F9C6F5-E584-4BB2-B413-87FD7654A6DC.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Allen
1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

Well what I do have is plenty of frost cloth.

what I do not have is a heat source if it’s really that cold windy and wet with long duration.

i invested in led xmas lights and Damn I saw those regular c9 at Home Depot over the holiday and just couldn’t convince myself to buy them. I wanted the LED, but knew the regulars could be handy one day.... grrrr 

..... prepare for -16 and and pray to the weather gods “only” 22. 

I use lights but hard to get now, other options---

Get a spotlight type bulb with this, mount on pole aimed at spear or inside loosely wrapped frost cloth in a manner it won't burn plant.

https://www.lowes.com/pd/BELL-150-Watt-Black-Line-Voltage-Plug-in-Incandescent-Spot-Light/1000404851 

Expensive but

https://www.amazon.com/HEATIT-40-feet-Regulating-Pre-assembled-Heating/dp/B07331J2J8/ref=sr_1_3?crid=E1366DACOMAL&dchild=1&keywords=self%2Bregulating%2Bheat%2Btape&qid=1612845870&sprefix=self%2Bregulating%2B%2Caps%2C177&sr=8-3&th=1

These can be used without worry about overheating under frost cloth.  I usually buy GE brand under $3 each but none available now.  This is all I trust on my plants and it will heat plenty, you need one of these for about ever 5' of height.  

https://www.amazon.com/Holiday-Essentials-Ultra-Brite-Clear-Lights/dp/B01IGUAIIE/ref=sr_1_4?dchild=1&keywords=incandescent%2Bchristmas%2Blights&qid=1612845989&sr=8-4&th=1

 

Other ideas,

Wrap fronds using flexible plant tie and slip a sleeping bag over top also think sheets, tarps, bales of hay, pine needles.  

 

 

 

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Collectorpalms
7 minutes ago, Allen said:

I use lights but hard to get now, other options---

Get a spotlight type bulb with this, mount on pole aimed at spear or inside loosely wrapped frost cloth in a manner it won't burn plant.

https://www.lowes.com/pd/BELL-150-Watt-Black-Line-Voltage-Plug-in-Incandescent-Spot-Light/1000404851 

Expensive but

https://www.amazon.com/HEATIT-40-feet-Regulating-Pre-assembled-Heating/dp/B07331J2J8/ref=sr_1_3?crid=E1366DACOMAL&dchild=1&keywords=self%2Bregulating%2Bheat%2Btape&qid=1612845870&sprefix=self%2Bregulating%2B%2Caps%2C177&sr=8-3&th=1

These can be used without worry about overheating under frost cloth.  I usually buy GE brand under $3 each but none available now.  This is all I trust on my plants and it will heat plenty, you need one of these for about ever 5' of height.  

https://www.amazon.com/Holiday-Essentials-Ultra-Brite-Clear-Lights/dp/B01IGUAIIE/ref=sr_1_4?dchild=1&keywords=incandescent%2Bchristmas%2Blights&qid=1612845989&sr=8-4&th=1

 

Other ideas,

Wrap fronds using flexible plant tie and slip a sleeping bag over top, use sheets, tarps, bales of hay, pine needles.  

 

 

 

Thank you. I was looking at amazon and saw the Xmas lights double triple over regular cost and seeing what day they would arrive. 
 

i think with the fluctuation with the models and duration of cold I can give my prized ones a First layer of frost cloth, and if Determined in about 48hr if they need another layer with heat.
 

Big palms are on their own for now. I don’t want to climb 30ft in the air and fall. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Allen
14 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Thank you. I was looking at amazon and saw the Xmas lights double triple over regular cost and seeing what day they would arrive. 
 

i think with the fluctuation with the models and duration of cold I can give my prized ones a First layer of frost cloth, and if Determined in about 48 if they need another layer with lights. 

If you have prize palms wrap the mini Christmas lights directly around spear and then wrap frost cloth over that.  These mini won't burn your palm.  I have literally 75 boxes of these

Best frost cloth

https://www.amazon.com/Supreme-Protection-Winterization-Blanket-Supreme650/dp/B005CERIZE/ref=sr_1_14?dchild=1&keywords=dewitt+frost+cloth&qid=1612847546&sr=8-14

 

I have 6 totes of palm protect stuff like this.  

pic3.jpg

Wrap your palm like this with mini's and cover with frost cloth

pic2.jpg

Larger palms like this 10' mule I run a pole down middle, then attach lights to pole and tie fronds together and cover.  This heats from inside fronds.  

pic1.jpg

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Collectorpalms

Dec 22, 1989 surface. 

1989dec22sfc.jpg

GFS Feb 14 2021

gfs_mslp_wind_us_fh138_trend (1).gif

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Collectorpalms

Dec 23 12z 1989 surface 

 

dec23 1989.jpg

12z feb 16 ( surface ridge through texas)

 

gfs_mslp_wind_us_fh180_trend.gif

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Collectorpalms

Some similarities, some differences, ( arctic high not 1055, but the cold air advection into texas is more shunted and even windier, could go on, but overall still a big deal for mainly Texas Still (not the southeast USA ).

Its fluctuated over Louisiana to New Mexico, and various frozen preceip events that will make a big difference.

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Meangreen94z
3 hours ago, jwitt said:

I know they just lowered the temp outlook here(NM) and Texas with this Arctic outbreak.  Just throw this in the back pocket for reference. In February 2011, the NWS did not forecast anything close to our actual lows(-10f) until less than 24 hours, and even then, it was worse than forecast.

 

Hopefully they are overblowing this and thankfully it is February as opposed to November. Good luck all.

 

 

I noticed that. January 2018 freeze in Houston ended up 3-5*F colder than what was predicted 12 hours beforehand. I always factor that in now. The 11*F that accuweather is forecasting may be accurate 

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Meangreen94z

Accuweather is now showing 16*F instead of 11*F for Saturday. Oddly Weatherchannel now shows Monday to be the coldest at 18*F with snow.  Accuweather shows 32*F for Monday’s low.

College Station now shows 22*. Accuweather shows Saturday still, Weather Channel shows Monday.

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Collectorpalms

According to the NWS in Dallas, the only model that has got this first wave of cold shallow air correct moving into north Texas is the NAM. They are still hinting/predicting near record-cold as of this morning for up there, for the weekend. 

NAM only goes out 84 hours, so start watching that one too.

 

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Collectorpalms

the NAM 6 hour forcast for DFW International was 35, its 30. Officially at 32 at 6am 2/9/21 The NAM has Dallas hovering between 30-37 ( and running too warm at initial) for the NEXT consecutive 80 hours. Before the real "cold event". The real cold event predicted by GFS this would add another several days. I think they are going to need a snow cover to make top 5.

That will prevent a 1983 event if so. ( hours at or below 32)

Most Consecutive Hours at or Below Freezing
295 hrs 7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983

211 hrs

3 pm Jan 15 - 10 am Jan 23, 1930

178 hrs 1 am Jan 23 - 11 am Jan 30, 1948
170 hrs 9 am Feb 1 - 11 am Feb 8, 1905
163 hrs 5 pm Jan 16 - 12 pm Jan 23, 1978
158 hrs 12 am Jan 27 - 2 pm Feb 2, 1951
 139 hrs* 5 pm Jan 3 - 12 pm Jan 9 1942
137 hrs 5 pm Jan 30 - 10 am Feb 5, 1996
*  An additional 58 hours occurred from 6 am Jan 1 to 3 pm Jan 3, 1942.  The temperature climbed to 33 degrees at 4 pm on Jan 3.  Combined with the 139 hours above, this makes a total of 197 inconsecutive hours.
Edited by Collectorpalms
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PalmTreeDude

Our low on Sunday (which is going to be the coldest day) keeps fluctuating so much, it has gone from 9°F to 15°F and in between many times a day. 

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RJ
7 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

According to the NWS in Dallas, the only model that has got this first wave of cold shallow air correct moving into north Texas is the NAM. They are still hinting/predicting near record-cold as of this morning for up there, for the weekend. 

NAM only goes out 84 hours, so start watching that one too.

 

The nam that far out is definitely not in it’s wheelhouse. Hopefully this event trends warmer. You guys in Texas have some of the wildest temperatures in the world . At least the SE has the Appalachian mountains as some help. It shunts all but the coldest events. 

 

Also keep an eye on the ensembles they can give you a good hint of the trends compared to the deterministic run. 

also thinking those reptile ceramic bulbs might work well. 
 

https://www.amazon.com/Reptile-Ceramic-Emitter-Infrared-Aquarium/dp/B017RCQ4JO

Edited by RJ

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NorCalKing
12 minutes ago, RJ said:

The nam that far out is definitely not in it’s wheelhouse. Hopefully this event trends warmer. You guys in Texas have some of the wildest temperatures in the world . At least the SE has the Appalachian mountains as some help. It shunts all but the coldest events. 
 

also thinking those reptile ceramic bulbs might work well. 
 

https://www.amazon.com/Reptile-Ceramic-Emitter-Infrared-Aquarium/dp/B017RCQ4JO

I don't believe those puny Appalachian mountains do anything (and they are also running in the wrong direction). The cold air can easily sail right over them, Hence, why the West Coast escapes the "real" cold. They are 10K foot (and up) 

Edited by NorCalKing
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RJ
1 minute ago, NorCalKing said:

I don't believe those puny Appalachian mountains do anything. The cold air can easily sail right over them, Hence, why the West Coast escapes the "real" cold. They are 10K foot (and up) 

They do help in my opinion and much of the Appalachian mountains in the SE are 5k plus. Granted not the rockies but You can actually view the cold air drain to the east and south of them over western Georgia and Alabama.  The below images loosely describe this scenario.  Now where they don't help is when the cold air is spilling down for the north/north east as opposed from the north west. Fortunately when the air drops down from this direction is doesn't tend to be as cold, especially this time of year. 

Are they a wall like the rockies, certainly not. Maybe eons ago when they were a much larger range, about the same size as the rockies and the Alps. ;)

Cold Air.gif

850 MB cold air.gif

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jwitt
7 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

the NAM 6 hour forcast for DFW International was 35, its 30. Officially at 32 at 6am 2/9/21 The NAM has Dallas hovering between 30-37 ( and running too warm at initial) for the NEXT consecutive 80 hours. Before the real "cold event". The real cold event predicted by GFS this would add another several days. I think they are going to need a snow cover to make top 5.

That will prevent a 1983 event if so. ( hours at or below 32)

Most Consecutive Hours at or Below Freezing
295 hrs 7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983

211 hrs

3 pm Jan 15 - 10 am Jan 23, 1930

178 hrs 1 am Jan 23 - 11 am Jan 30, 1948
170 hrs 9 am Feb 1 - 11 am Feb 8, 1905
163 hrs 5 pm Jan 16 - 12 pm Jan 23, 1978
158 hrs 12 am Jan 27 - 2 pm Feb 2, 1951
 139 hrs* 5 pm Jan 3 - 12 pm Jan 9 1942
137 hrs 5 pm Jan 30 - 10 am Feb 5, 1996
*  An additional 58 hours occurred from 6 am Jan 1 to 3 pm Jan 3, 1942.  The temperature climbed to 33 degrees at 4 pm on Jan 3.  Combined with the 139 hours above, this makes a total of 197 inconsecutive hours.

That 1983 in Dallas is incredible. Nearly half the month! 

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NBTX11

Not worried.

I planted hardy palms for just this reason.  I don't do palm protection.  I can't protect 30 and 40 foot palms anyways.

I am very upset that this will probably kill off all the buds off my ash trees (they already leafed out last week).

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NBTX11
1 hour ago, RJ said:

 You guys in Texas have some of the wildest temperatures in the world . A

No wilder than anywhere else in the Southeast.  Some cold fronts go straight down into Texas.  Others go straight down into the SE, missing Texas.  This happens literally all the time.  The fact is, most of Texas is warmer than the Southeast (ie: Georgia, SC, NC, etc.) in terms of overall winter lows, hardiness zones, average lows, basically everything.  It just so happens that this particular cold front is going straight into Texas.  The next 3 might go straight into Georgia and N. Florida.  There is a reason huge swaths of Texas are Zone 9, basically all of Houston and San Antonio and everything south of it.

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Collectorpalms

70 degree temperature difference over Texas and no Mountains between the extremes. 17 to 88 right now. If you average the two it’s 52.5. That’s were I am . It was suppose to be mid 70s today. Didn’t happen, oozed south a tad. But I’ll take 52.

 

756F5F5A-98D1-4825-AC77-DF344E7C7679.gif

Edited by Collectorpalms

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NorCalKing
46 minutes ago, RJ said:

Maybe eons ago when they were a much larger range, about the same size as the rockies and the Alps. ;)

This is true. Sadly now, like I mentioned at 5K feet, there's literally minimal protection. Most cold air masses are way higher than 5k feet. I guess anything helps.

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RJ
9 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

No wilder than anywhere else in the Southeast.  Some cold fronts go straight down into Texas.  Others go straight down into the SE, missing Texas.  This happens literally all the time.  The fact is, most of Texas is warmer than the Southeast (ie: Georgia, SC, NC, etc.) in terms of overall winter lows, hardiness zones, average lows, basically everything.  It just so happens that this particular cold front is going straight into Texas.  The next 3 might go straight into Georgia and N. Florida.

I agree, which is why I stated that Texas has some of the wildest temperatures in the world. Perhaps I should of put and emphasis on *swings* 

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NBTX11

It was in the 70s where I am at.  NE San Antonio

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RJ
1 minute ago, NorCalKing said:

This is true. Sadly now, like I mentioned at 5K feet, there's literally minimal protection. Most cold air masses are way higher than 5k feet. I guess anything helps.

True, and most are higher then 10k feet as well. 500 mb heights are roughly 16k ft. Thats where the cold and energy really gets going and what you typically look at when forecasting these types events.  

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NBTX11

Calm down.  This is not a 1989 event.

Not even close.  Heck, I doubt this will even kill off any queen palms in my area, unless the forecast gets a lot lower than currently predicted. (zone 9a low 20's type cold). 

 

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NorCalKing
12 minutes ago, RJ said:

True, and most are higher then 10k feet as well. 500 mb heights are roughly 16k ft. Thats where the cold and energy really gets going and what you typically look at when forecasting these types events.  

True. But at 10K (and above) you are near the bottom of the jet stream at times, also out West we get the Westerlies off the Pacific to mix in and moderate any cold fronts that do happen to make it over the Rockies, followed by the Sierra Mountains. This is why these intrusions hardly ever make it to the West coast.

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Collectorpalms
5 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Calm down.  This is not a 1989 event.

Not even close.  Heck, I doubt this will even kill off any queen palms in my area, unless the forecast gets a lot lower than currently predicted. (zone 9a low 20's type cold). 

 

I don’t think any two events are the same. There is a big difference between 5 degrees when your considering a low of 15 or 20 for a “Queen”.  1980s, no maybe more like a “regular winter” which only happens once or twice a “decade.” Though 2018 was an example of following the nws and a forecast bust by three degrees, and zone bust by 1 degree. That killed a lot. 

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NorCalKing
3 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

There is a big difference between 5 degrees when your considering a low of 15 or 20 for a “Queen”.

Totally true. 20f the Queens are going to more than likely make it. 15f good luck.

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NBTX11
6 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

I don’t think any two events are the same. There is a big difference between 5 degrees when your considering a low of 15 or 20 for a “Queen”.  1980s, no maybe more like a “regular winter” which only happens once or twice a “decade.” Though 2018 was an example of following the nws and a zone bust by three degrees. That killed a lot. 

Considering we are technically a 8b/9a climate, we were due for a 20 degree night, which we haven't seen since 2011, I believe.  If memory serves me correct, 16 and 19 are the coldest temps I have seen since the early 2000's when I got here, and those were in back to back winters of 2010 and 11.  I lost a fairly decent size queen palm to the 16 degrees.  Saw quite a few survivors though around.  W. Robusta browned out some but recovered fast. 

Edited by NBTX11

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NBTX11
1 minute ago, NorCalKing said:

Totally true. 20f the Queens are going to more than likely make it. 15f good luck.

They are good to 20.  Every degree below that takes off 10 to 20 percent chance of survival. 

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