Weather... not good.

[Swolte]

 *Heads out to get extra frost cloths*

Edited February 8, 2021 by Swolte

[DAVEinMB]

@Swolte yikes, that dip to 21 after rain is gonna be fun

[Teegurr]

3 hours ago, Swolte said:

 *Heads out to get extra frost cloths*

Bringing in the Bizzie, that's for sure! Snow on 3 occasions this year, that would be insane! I was wondering when the arctic blast would hit...pretty late this winter.

[JohnAndSancho]

 

 

My apartment is fixing to get real crowded. Might need to bring a couple into the office too 

[Collectorpalms]

8 hours ago, Swolte said:

 *Heads out to get extra frost cloths*

That looks the European model that does not take the cold serious. Here is the brutal GFS

[Teegurr]

29 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

That looks the European model that does not take the cold serious. Here is the brutal GFS

Do you really think it will get down into the single digits? I can't imagine 3 degrees here. Good luck to all your palms and especially your Queens and Bismarck(s?).

[Allen]

The forecast models seem to be terribly unreliable in my opinion.

[Collectorpalms]

21 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

Do you really think it will get down into the single digits? I can't imagine 3 degrees here. Good luck to all your palms and especially your Queens and Bismarck(s?).

Is three degrees possible, well yes. It has been 3 degrees here before. i don’t know what to think honestly but if you have invested heavily in a yard do you just wait and see as the time gets closer, or do you decide to get to work and start protecting??? 

[Tropicdoc]

That map shows New Orleans colder than Virginia Beach !?!?!

[DAVEinMB]

Accuweather is forecasting 12 degrees for College Station on the 13th. That's nuts. Good luck over there guys; fingers crossed for you. 

[Allen]

2 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

Is three degrees possible, well yes. It has been 3 degrees here before. i don’t know what to think honestly but if you have invested heavily in a yard do you just wait and see as the time gets closer, or do you decide to get to work and start protecting??? 

You should always have the materials and plan in place to protect what you can if your palms are hard to replace.  

[Swolte]

I hope we won't hit those numbers. It could be better but also worse! I just watched the local weather station's live stream (KBTX) and they were saying a historic freeze is not out of the cards. The guy was doing a 'worst case'. I mean, we're talking numbers that Texas hasn't seen since 1888. Models, albeit still speculative but realistic, predicting 0 degrees in Dallas and windchills deep in the negatives (Fahrenheit) with close to 100 hours below freezing. Got my stomach in knots. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by Swolte

[Meangreen94z]

Accuweather shows 11*F for Austin....

i don’t know if I trust that model, it then shows a low of 38*F Sunday night?  Weather Channel shows 21*F and then 24*F for Austin. 17*F and 21*F where I’m at NW of Austin.

[Allen]

If anyone needs ideas protecting anything give me a pm and I might be able to help.  

[Swolte]

Luckily several of my most precious palms are still small-ish. I may take another drive to the Producers Coop and get some more bales of hay. A thick layer of those taped around the palm with a layer (or two) of frost-cloth should hopefully give them a chance. 

[RJ]

Don't look at the CMC, granted it runs cold historically, heck it's the Canadian model. But it shows some brutal cold for Texas. 

[Jimhardy]

Upper air temps of -32C threatened to bring record cold for the weekend but.....

and thats a big frozen butt....since this forecast we have seen -25C to -30C -20 to -24

and now this morning -19C forecast(upper air temps)...so hopefully we will just be in the -10F to -20F

on the ground and not the -30F that was a potential with a foot and a half

of snow on the ground and a fresh coating before the arctic cold arrives...

Hopefully "warmer" temps here will mean warmer there.

[Collectorpalms]

I just looked at the Canadian model, made me dizzy and not feel any better.

[NorCalKing]

On 2/8/2021 at 7:19 PM, Swolte said:

Luckily several of my most precious palms are still small-ish. I may take another drive to the Producers Coop and get some more bales of hay. A thick layer of those taped around the palm with a layer (or two) of frost-cloth should hopefully give them a chance. 

You're gonna need more than a few bales of hay if this cold front verifies lol

[JohnAndSancho]

Even the Weather Channel is forecasting 8" of snow for Huntsville. 1-3" Sunday night and 3-5" Monday then another round of "winter precipitation" Wed night into Thursday. 

 

I'm glad I work at a hotel so I can stay at work. 

[RJ]

If this cold comes to Texas as it's currently being modeled it will be worse for the state of Texas than any Hurricane. 

[amh]

21 minutes ago, RJ said:

If this cold comes to Texas as it's currently being modeled it will be worse for the state of Texas than any Hurricane. 

I could be mistaken, but this type of weather hasn't been seen since the 1890's.

[NBTX11]

San Antonio TX Lowest Temperature Each Year - Current Results

This site lists all the yearly low temperatures for San Antonio going back to 1947.  4 temperatures stand out.

0F on Jan 31, 1949

6F on Feb 2, 1951

9F on Dec 30, 1983

6F on Dec 23, 1989

For comparison, here are the lows for each of the past 10 years:  2020 - 28F, 2019 - 27F, 2018 - 21, 2017 - 19, 2016 - 25, 2015 - 28 2014- 22, 2013 - 29, 2012 - 27. 2011 - 19F.

10 year average low:  24.5F.  Some years barely dropping below 30F all year.

 

[SailorBold]

Does antacid really work for the pit in your stomach?  Or is tequila better for that?

 

[AnTonY]

Here's what could save Texas, if it ever trends stronger in the future.

[floridaPalmMan]

1 minute ago, SailorBold said:

Does antacid really work for the pit in your stomach?  Or is tequila better for that?

 

Heavy doses of both should do it.

Per floridaPalmMan's orders.

[Chester B]

1 hour ago, SailorBold said:

Does antacid really work for the pit in your stomach?  Or is tequila better for that?

 

I think you know the answer to this one

[Swolte]

Here's the latest European model for CS Texas (in between Houston, Austin, Dallas). Bit milder than some but getting scarier now...

[NBTX11]

Sunday night and Monday night look to be the show stoppers.  Hoping to see moderation by then.

[Chester B]

It's so annoying how one 24 hr period in year or in several years can be this damaging.

[amh]

4 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

San Antonio TX Lowest Temperature Each Year - Current Results

This site lists all the yearly low temperatures for San Antonio going back to 1947.  4 temperatures stand out.

0F on Jan 31, 1949

6F on Feb 2, 1951

9F on Dec 30, 1983

6F on Dec 23, 1989

For comparison, here are the lows for each of the past 10 years:  2020 - 28F, 2019 - 27F, 2018 - 21, 2017 - 19, 2016 - 25, 2015 - 28 2014- 22, 2013 - 29, 2012 - 27. 2011 - 19F.

10 year average low:  24.5F.  Some years barely dropping below 30F all year.

 

The thing about 1989 is that it stayed below 10F for over 24 hours in the hill country.

In 2017 we were 8F, That was about 25 miles from you.

[Keys6505]

So I should just go ahead and quit my "yeah it's 9a but really more like a warm 9b" delusion, huh?

[amh]

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

Here's the latest European model for CS Texas (in between Houston, Austin, Dallas). Bit milder than some but getting scarier now...

 

I hope my area would be so mild.

[amh]

1 minute ago, Keys6505 said:

So I should just go ahead and quit my "yeah it's 9a but really more like a warm 9b" delusion, huh?

No delusions here in 8A.

[NBTX11]

16 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

So I should just go ahead and quit my "yeah it's 9a but really more like a warm 9b" delusion, huh?

Yes, plant your yard out mostly with bullet proof palms, with only a handful of marginals.  That way, when the inevitable happens, your yard won't be slaughtered.

[NBTX11]

17 minutes ago, amh said:

No delusions here in 8A.

The USDA zone map doesn't show anywhere in Comal County as zone 8A.  To get to zone 8A, you have to go to extreme northwest Kendall and Blanco counties.  The entirety of Comal County is 8B, with central New Braunfels borderline 9A (at or less than a degree under 20F long term average).  You can zoom in on these maps to individual neighborhoods, if I remember correctly.  

[amh]

3 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

The USDA zone map doesn't show anywhere in Comal County as zone 8A.  To get to zone 8A, you have to go to extreme northwest Kendall and Blanco counties.  The entirety of Comal County is 8B, with central New Braunfels borderline 9A (at or less than a degree under 20F long term average).  You can zoom in on these maps to individual neighborhoods, if I remember correctly.  

Micro climates.

[NBTX11]

1 minute ago, amh said:

Micro climates.

The USDA map goes down to individual streets and neighborhoods.  I don't recall seeing any 8A's anywhere in Comal.  I could be wrong, but I have zoomed this thing in down to minute detail before. 

[amh]

1 minute ago, NBTX11 said:

The USDA map goes down to individual streets and neighborhoods.  I don't recall seeing any 8A's anywhere in Comal.  I could be wrong, but I have zoomed this thing in down to minute detail before. 

They can only map what's reported. Parts of the Boerne area get really cold too.

[NBTX11]

3 minutes ago, amh said:

They can only map what's reported. Parts of the Boerne area get really cold too.

Fair enough.  I don't live out there so I don't track all the low temps.