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Mr. Coconut Palm

Anyone Got Any Hunches About Winter Being Over In South Texas And The Gulf Coast?

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pj_orlando_z9b

Watching this play out in awe. I'm hoping the temps bust higher for y'all. I know how I felt with 28F in Orlando 3 years ago and we are similar to Corpus. I'm very intrigued how Brownsville may fare. I've seen some of the tropical palms that have been long term survivors. Good luck!

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Sabal_Louisiana

I took a semester off from college and lived in Dallas for the first half of 1990. This was right after the big freeze of December 1989 when the temperature fell to zero F in that city.

I remember seeing how even some cold hardy palms had completely fried.

Now, the Weather Channel predicts a low on the 16th of -1 for the Dallas area. I find this hard to believe.

The high that brought the cold in 1989, as the first map shows, was a 1048mb wedging down to the Rio Grande. The one next week shows a similar pattern but this high is only 1024 mb coming down into Texas.  Look at the second map.

So why does the guidance show that temperatures next week will be comparable to the 1989 event?

image010.jpg

9khwbg_conus.gif

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pj_orlando_z9b
34 minutes ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I took a semester off from college and lived in Dallas for the first half of 1990. This was right after the big freeze of December 1989 when the temperature fell to zero F in that city.

I remember seeing how even some cold hardy palms had completely fried.

Now, the Weather Channel predicts a low on the 16th of -1 for the Dallas area. I find this hard to believe.

The high that brought the cold in 1989, as the first map shows, was a 1048mb wedging down to the Rio Grande. The one next week shows a similar pattern but this high is only 1024 mb coming down into Texas.  Look at the second map.

So why does the guidance show that temperatures next week will be comparable to the 1989 event?

image010.jpg

9khwbg_conus.gif

Could be the source of the air is colder? Also, this setup is a triple H with roots farther North. Like a conveyer belt is my guess. 

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AnTonY

@JLM

I assume that some of those offices are more gung-ho, while others are more conservative. Perhaps it depends on the specific station used - for instance, I don't see Houston getting as cold as 12°F when San Antonio is also 12°F.

@Sabal_Louisiana

You're right. Not to mention that the 1989 event also came from a TPV set up. And occurred relatively close to winter's solstice, unlike this event in Feb where the days are getting longer w/ sun angle growing stronger. That's just one of many technicalities I'm seeing with this setup that makes me think the cold being forecasted is quite overdone. So many things just aren't adding up.

 

Edited by AnTonY

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Collectorpalms
On 1/26/2021 at 10:46 PM, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hi Everyone,

Anyone out there got any hunches or data showing that winter is over for South Texas and the Gulf Coast.  Let me know.    Thanks.

John

John, how are you holding up? 
Looks like you are 37,  moody gardens in Galveston is 40. South Padre is 41.

galveston NE winds.

You NW winds. Padre NW as well.


 

4F52A928-441F-4B36-8B36-11ECECC11C11.jpeg

D020DDC4-CEBF-43FF-AF26-26E4F5088181.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Collectorpalms
5 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I took a semester off from college and lived in Dallas for the first half of 1990. This was right after the big freeze of December 1989 when the temperature fell to zero F in that city.

I remember seeing how even some cold hardy palms had completely fried.

Now, the Weather Channel predicts a low on the 16th of -1 for the Dallas area. I find this hard to believe.

The high that brought the cold in 1989, as the first map shows, was a 1048mb wedging down to the Rio Grande. The one next week shows a similar pattern but this high is only 1024 mb coming down into Texas.  Look at the second map.

So why does the guidance show that temperatures next week will be comparable to the 1989 event?

 

 

This is different than 1989. The biggest difference is

1) Your map is likely wrong, the high pressure over Manitoba right NOW is at 1042 mb, and is expected to roughly remain same or strengthen, I see GFS has 1948MB.  Canadian wants to go to 1051mb. Yes, I saw that and knew a 1050MB was an OMG.

2) The west Gulf low that is expected to form will gyrate around that high, with the cold air sucked into Texas in its wake.

3) Pressure gradient. Because of highs off the west and east coast, the air is funneled into Texas, as opposed to 1989 it was more spread out over all the southeast, deep into Florida.

4) Greater chance for frozen precip ( Houston only had 1.5 inches of snow on the ground in 89).

5) .. tbd.

gfs_mslp_wind_us_fh60_trend.gif

gfs_mslp_wind_us_fh42_trend.gif

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Collectorpalms
7 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I took a semester off from college and lived in Dallas for the first half of 1990. This was right after the big freeze of December 1989 when the temperature fell to zero F in that city.

I remember seeing how even some cold hardy palms had completely fried.

Now, the Weather Channel predicts a low on the 16th of -1 for the Dallas area. I find this hard to believe.

The high that brought the cold in 1989, as the first map shows, was a 1048mb wedging down to the Rio Grande. The one next week shows a similar pattern but this high is only 1024 mb coming down into Texas.  Look at the second map.

So why does the guidance show that temperatures next week will be comparable to the 1989 event?

image010.jpg

9khwbg_conus.gif

 

Also, looks like that is from Forecaster Campbell form the WPC, they seem to take the European model and make it weaker in their forecast. So far the GFS has been very cold, but not cold enough. Here is hoping that Campbell's forecast is correct, still he has the cold front all the way to the Yucatan. How much snow, sleet or ice, on the ground or due north is going to play a factor of probably 5 degrees, and we wont know that probably until its done and over with. For immediate coast it is very tricky, will the wind remain NW inland cold air, N, or NE which would be offshore warmth.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best is my mantra.

I am really holding out for a only bad as 2018 event for the coast and inner Houston. Unfortunately that went the other direction with the NWS not getting cold enough for me. 17F vs 14.5F for me, was a difference of life/weakening/death of many marginal palms.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Palmaceae

Looks like this does not happen very often.

 

Brownsvillewinter.PNG

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DoomsDave

Praying for a false alarm for y’all.

Fervently.

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JLM

Updated Numbers (Again)

--Texas--

Brownsville TX: 26F --> 25F --> 28F
Port Isabell/South Padre Island TX: 37F (No change)
Corpus Christi TX: 23F (No change) --> 20F
Port Aransas TX: 23F --> 24F --> 23F
Rockport TX: 19F --> 21F --> 20F
Victoria TX: 13F (No change) --> 11F
Laredo TX: 21F (No change)--> 22F
San Antonio TX: 14F --> 12F (No change)
New Braunfels TX: 12F --> 9F (No change)
Austin TX: 10F --> 6F (No change)
Rosenberg TX: 12F --> 9F --> 8F
Houston TX: 15F --> 12F --> 13F
Galveston TX: 25F --> 23F --> 19F
Huntsville TX: 7F --> 4F --> 3F
College Station TX: 6F --> 4F --> 3F
Waco TX: 6F (No change)--> 3F
Lufkin TX: 13F --> 9F --> 8F
Longview TX: 10F --> 6F --> 5F
Tyler TX: 10F --> 5F --> 4F
Dallas TX: 6F --> 4F (No change)
Ft Worth TX: 5F --> 4F --> 2F
Abilene TX: 3F --> 0F --> -1F
Midland TX: 4F --> 1F (No change)
El Paso TX: 22F --> 20F --> 18F
Lubbock TX: -2F --> -4F (No change)
Amarillo TX: -7F --> -3F --> -12F
Wichita Falls TX: -2F --> -4F --> -5F
--Louisiana--
Shreveport LA: 13F --> 10F --> 9F
Alexandria LA: 15F --> 11F -->15F
Monroe LA: 14F --> 12F --> 10F
Lake Charles LA: 21F --> 16F --> 18F
Lafayette LA: 21F --> 17F --> 19F
Baton Rouge LA: 24F --> 22F --> 18F
Houma LA: 26F --> 25F --> 22F
New Orleans LA: 30F --> 28F --> 26F
Slidell LA: 26F --> 24F --> 21F
--Mississippi Coast--
Bay St. Louis MS: 29F --> 26F
Gulfport MS: 26F --> 23F
Biloxi MS: 26F --> 24F
Ocean Springs MS: 27F --> 23F

Pascagoula MS: 28F --> 25F
--Alabama Coast--
Bayou La Batre AL: 29F --> 26F
Mobile AL: 29F--> 26F
Gulf Shores AL: 31F (No change)

My forecasted low went from 38F to now 31F, we'll see how much colder it trends. If it keeps going ll end up in the 20's, which is not comparable to what's going to happen in Texas, but it is a noticeable trend.

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RJ
On 2/10/2021 at 2:30 PM, Xenon said:

Contrast in soil temperatures across the north-south extremes of Texas...incredible!

 

What site are you using for soil temp data? Thanks 

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Xenon
9 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Looks like this does not happen very often.

 

Brownsvillewinter.PNG

There wasn't a single record of snow there throughout the entirety of the 20th century. Already snowed there 2-3 times this century. Crazy 

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Sabal_Louisiana

I would imagine that any mango trees growing around Brownsville will be toast.

Around here, I've gone from wondering if some banana trees will stay green through the whole winter to worrying that we will lose lots of palms due to one night down into the teens in the last half of February.

This will likely be the coldest Mardi Gras since the 1800s.  A silver lining in a very rare year without parades.

Edited by Sabal_Louisiana
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Reyes Vargas
1 hour ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I would imagine that any mango trees growing around Brownsville will be toast.

Around here, I've gone from wondering if some banana trees will stay green through the whole winter to worrying that we will lose lots of palms due to one night down into the teens in the last half of February.

This will likely be the coldest Mardi Gras since the 1800s.  A silver lining in a very rare year without parades.

Not necessarily.  We had a hard freeze in 2010 followed by an ice storm in 2011 and I believe they survived, but I might be wrong.  They could have replanted them but everything else survived even some coconuts, Delonix regia and royal palms. There was a bad stretch of weather starting in February 2nd and ending on the 5th.  Here are a few pictures of Brownsville on February 4th.  I remember this ice storm quite clearly.  I was kinda excited since I had never seen this much ice in my life.  Maybe in the 80s we had some ice but I was too young to remember.

Screenshot_2021-02-13-19-56-03~3.png

Screenshot_2021-02-13-19-55-33~2.png

Screenshot_2021-02-13-19-55-28~2.png

Screenshot_2021-02-13-19-55-13~2.png

Screenshot_2021-02-13-19-55-04~2.png

Screenshot_2021-02-13-19-54-55~2.png

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Xenon

Mangos arent that tender. Current forecast is not mango-killing, just minor to moderate dieback. Most banyan type Ficus and royal poinciana are comparatively more tender 

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bubba

In Florida in January of 2010, South Florida suffered a protracted cold spell. Our area never dropped below freezing but it was five (5) days of unusually cold weather (50F/33F was coldest). Notwithstanding this extended period of cold, no problems with the coconuts or other tropicals. These were generally old and well established specimens but I believe survival in the RGV will be similar if temperatures below freezing are not lengthy.

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IHB1979
23 minutes ago, bubba said:

In Florida in January of 2010, South Florida suffered a protracted cold spell. Our area never dropped below freezing but it was five (5) days of unusually cold weather (50F/33F was coldest). Notwithstanding this extended period of cold, no problems with the coconuts or other tropicals. These were generally old and well established specimens but I believe survival in the RGV will be similar if temperatures below freezing are not lengthy.

I remember that event, but 2009 culled a decent amount of tropicals, including coconuts in my area with slightly warmer temps than forecast for S. Texas. Probably 1/3 to 1/2 the coconuts were killed. Both old and young specimens. What followed was a year or so of palms with no crowns and several years of a not many palms available at stores. I remember not seeing coconuts for sale in our area for at least two years. 

With Texas strict plant import regulations, I wonder if that will delay recovery/replacement?

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Palmaceae

I cannot believe this is the forecast for Houston, we are warmer here in the Smokies in Tennessee than most of Southern Texas.

HoustonWeather.PNG

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JohnAndSancho
3 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

I cannot believe this is the forecast for Houston, we are warmer here in the Smokies in Tennessee than most of Southern Texas.

HoustonWeather.PNG

Forecast for 5-8" of snow on top of all the ice in Huntsville. 

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Sabal_Louisiana

To this day, I still can't comprehend our weather..A brutal long summer, ending with hurricanes. 85 degrees in November and then a freeze for Christmas.

A winter season that teases with a few frosts, with mild to warm weather in between...then have one very cold spell with heavy rain, snow, ice, a day or two down to teens and a few days later back up to 70 and sunny like it never happened. 

Easy to forget perhaps except for the damage to our beloved palms and citrus.

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Xenon

Need the clouds to hold out as long as possible to stop temps from dipping. If anywhere in TX still has a chance of surviving the brunt of this freeze, it's the RGV. 

Currently 32F McAllen, 33F Brownsville, 36F South Padre Island 

image14.png?9a1bfe85c079a8619c01266e8db9dd64

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Mr. Coconut Palm
On 2/13/2021 at 12:55 AM, Collectorpalms said:

John, how are you holding up? 
Looks like you are 37,  moody gardens in Galveston is 40. South Padre is 41.

galveston NE winds.

You NW winds. Padre NW as well.


 

4F52A928-441F-4B36-8B36-11ECECC11C11.jpeg

D020DDC4-CEBF-43FF-AF26-26E4F5088181.jpeg

Ryan,

It has been in the mid to upper 30'sF here all day, when the normal high is 70F.  It is 29.8F here at my place right now with light freezing rain mixed with light snow in the area.  I got my 3 in ground Coconut Palms, my two Royal Palms, Foxtail, King, Bottle, and Florida Thatch Palm wrapped as best I could, and praying and hoping for the best.  Still hoping it won't end up as bad as predicted.  How is it there right now?

John 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
On 2/13/2021 at 8:54 AM, Palmaceae said:

Looks like this does not happen very often.

 

Brownsvillewinter.PNG

Thank goodness, it is VERY RARE in the RGV, which is why I want to move there!!!

John

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Mr. Coconut Palm
On 2/13/2021 at 11:20 AM, DoomsDave said:

Praying for a false alarm for y’all.

Fervently.

Thank you, Dave!!!

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RedRabbit
2 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ryan,

It has been in the mid to upper 30'sF here all day, when the normal high is 70F.  It is 29.8F here at my place right now with light freezing rain mixed with light snow in the area.  I got my 3 in ground Coconut Palms, my two Royal Palms, Foxtail, King, Bottle, and Florida Thatch Palm wrapped as best I could, and praying and hoping for the best.  Still hoping it won't end up as bad as predicted.  How is it there right now?

John 

Good luck @Mr. Coconut Palm!

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amh

I've lived in Texas since the late 80s and I think I've seen more snow in the past 5 or 6 years than the previous 27 years.

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AnTonY
8 hours ago, Xenon said:

Need the clouds to hold out as long as possible to stop temps from dipping. If anywhere in TX still has a chance of surviving the brunt of this freeze, it's the RGV. 

Currently 32F McAllen, 33F Brownsville, 36F South Padre Island 

And, if clouds are going to clear out, let them do so right before dawn. By the time they're out, the subtropical sun would have emerged to really heat things.

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JJPalmer

I can’t believe the temperatures still being reported in extreme South Texas. South Padre Island is still below 25° with winds absolutely howling. Temps haven’t been above freezing since at least mid-night and have been below 30° for hours....

1E6654DD-F7D1-4E35-9091-A7E02876F3C8.jpeg

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Jimbean

We can safely say that south Texas is nowhere near zone 10B.  The all time record low for West Palm Beach is 24F.

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JJPalmer
47 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

We can safely say that south Texas is nowhere near zone 10B.  The all time record low for West Palm Beach is 24F.

Not saying I necessarily disagree, but record cold lows are not how you determine zone maps.  I saw a map posted somewhere that may have been overly aggressive for Houston, but given the last few decades of temperatures, SPI is closer to 10B than 9B. 

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RedRabbit

Galveston Beach :(
 

CAF5DDDE-F943-4030-925C-9BBF2ECE937C.jpeg

Edited by RedRabbit
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Hombre de Palmas

I feel for all of you guys that are affected by this extreme weather aberration as I've been there, done that. We experienced a scare just a couple weeks ago here, that reminded me again of the fragility of our efforts.

I spent some years living in and traveling Texas for work, so I know these areas.  I don't specifically remember lots of cocos or royals,  but I do remember the RGV was a whole different world from the rest of Texas. I planned a lot of business trips down there during the winter when DFW was in the chill. I usually drove it, and to me, the difference even between San Antonio and McAllen (via 281) was really significant, since there was very little to see in between.

On the other hand, I did drive through snow, ice and cold throughout the entire state at one time or another, but nothing quite like this as far as absolute cold, so far south.  DFW had many cold spells, one of which took out my robustas and sabals, but that was because of the duration of the cold, I didn't think we dropped even to single digits during that one. I should have gotten filifera, but at that time, they were very expensive in Dallas. I have photos from Christmas Eve 2009 with snow nearly burying my my fortunies and chamaerops (they had no damage). Funny thing that, my parents came down for Christmas that year to escape the cold of Wisconsin.

I wish you all the best, I have fond memories from there, and I am pulling for you.

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RedRabbit
4 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

I can’t believe the temperatures still being reported in extreme South Texas. South Padre Island is still below 25° with winds absolutely howling. Temps haven’t been above freezing since at least mid-night and have been below 30° for hours....

1E6654DD-F7D1-4E35-9091-A7E02876F3C8.jpeg

The high temp on SPI was 31.8f today. As of 4:10pm it’s back below 30f.

87890195-9560-4C76-8465-B344609D50E4.thumb.png.6a87f6ca51164f3b3fa4b453f11002c6.png
 

Some of Brownsville has broken above freezing. I’m surprised to see Brownsville has fared better than SPI. I think every zone 10 palm in Texas will succumb to this freeze, but if something manages to survive it will be in a sheltered spot in Brownsville. 

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Jimbean
4 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

Not saying I necessarily disagree, but record cold lows are not how you determine zone maps.  I saw a map posted somewhere that may have been overly aggressive for Houston, but given the last few decades of temperatures, SPI is closer to 10B than 9B. 

Technically you are correct, however I disagree with the way zones are defined. 

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JohnAndSancho

Literally 7° in Huntsville TX right now. But I'm somehow excited that I finally got my dog to poop vs just trying to hide under big trucks in the parking lot. 

 

I'm staying at work (I manage a hotel) but power has been out in my apartment since roughly 9am and it's so cold that people are _literally_ begging to sleep in our lobby. I feel like crap because we couldn't even do that pre-Covid, but now I'm also legit worried about the 38 palms in my apartment. Being an empath is such an awful curse. 

 

Stay warm, homies. 

 

*edit I have 3 weather apps, one says 12°, one says 11°, one says 6.8°

 

Regardless, it's effing cold. Stay warm. 

Edited by JohnAndSancho

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JLM
7 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Literally 7° in Huntsville TX right now. But I'm somehow excited that I finally got my dog to poop vs just trying to hide under big trucks in the parking lot. 

 

I'm staying at work (I manage a hotel) but power has been out in my apartment since roughly 9am and it's so cold that people are _literally_ begging to sleep in our lobby. I feel like crap because we couldn't even do that pre-Covid, but now I'm also legit worried about the 38 palms in my apartment. Being an empath is such an awful curse. 

 

Stay warm, homies. 

 

*edit I have 3 weather apps, one says 12°, one says 11°, one says 6.8°

 

Regardless, it's effing cold. Stay warm. 

Extremely worried about everyone over there, especially since its so cold and a lot of people dont have power.

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palmsOrl
On 2/15/2021 at 1:33 AM, amh said:

I've lived in Texas since the late 80s and I think I've seen more snow in the past 5 or 6 years than the previous 27 years.

And don't forgot 2004, that one was epic.

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palmsOrl
21 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Galveston Beach :(
 

CAF5DDDE-F943-4030-925C-9BBF2ECE937C.jpeg

This is why people move to South Florida.  There has never, in recorded history, been snow accumulation on the beach anywhere in South Florida.

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Palmaceae
8 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

This is why people move to South Florida.  There has never, in recorded history, been snow accumulation on the beach anywhere in South Florida.

Hope it stays that way, but never say never.

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