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Matthew92

Florida Freeze Watch: Jan-Feb 2021

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TampaPalms
2 hours ago, bubba said:

Once again, feel horrible for Texas but still believe it will not be as catastrophic as predicted. Something is obviously wrong when Indiantown, Fl., out in the Glades, is reporting 91F at around 1PM. This is with 75% humidity and a real feel of 130 F on February 13, 2021. Winter hot spots like this are usually reserved for RGV, California desert or Yuma, Az. Lower humidity, however...

There is an article that I cannot find at the moment that simply states because of the draining of the Everglades there are more extremes in the summer and winter. There are spots to the west of Lake Okeechobee that got into the upper 20s while the rest of the area where the upper 30s. Same thing in summer upper 90s southwest of Lake O especially in the months of May and June. 

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pj_orlando_z9b
On 2/10/2021 at 1:04 PM, TampaPalms said:

I'm an amateur but the GFS and Euro long term looks really good for Central and South Florida. I don't see anything as far as a freeze so we're almost out of the woods climatology.

Typically around Central FL, the threat of a freeze or severe freeze diminishes greatly after 2/20. It can happen but my experience is it is rare. 

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pj_orlando_z9b
On 2/10/2021 at 2:51 PM, Matthew92 said:

 

The thing is- if the forecast temps for Texas pans out, it will demonstrate that a cold event making it this far south and rivaling a 1980's or late 1800's cold event is still possible. I've seen some comments in the past from some who think a 1980's type cold event is very doubtful to happen again as our climate warms. Maybe the frequency of such an event is dwindling, but this event would demonstrate it can still happen.

The sobering thing is, (again if this cold event pans out as currently predicted), where this far-south reaching "cold knife" of air reaches down is simply dependent on the setup of the pattern (southeast ridge of high pressure, trough placement etc..) and that's the only thing from keeping it farther east or west. FL would not be immune (only the lower half of the peninsula would be more protected due to ocean influence) if those basic setup dynamics were just a little different.

Even still, I'm watching the evolution of this closely as some of the most recent guidance shows the hard freezing temps making it uncomfortably close to the FL Panhandle. It's also unknown how far east this cold air will move (albeit becoming modified somewhat) after the Valentine's day period.

I think people put way too much stock in global warming. I'm not trying to get into a debate about it, but weather still happens. These long range winter forecasts have a bias and prove useless as a result most times. In fact, they just released the late winter/spring outlook and as expected, above normal most of the US. They really do a disservice with all this bias. 

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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

These long range winter forecasts have a bias and prove useless as a result most times. In fact, they just released the late winter/spring outlook and as expected, above normal most of the US. They really do a disservice with all this bias. 

I think something else that either wasn't taken into account, or wasn't taken into account enough by forecasters or forecast models has contributed to the winter that hasn't been as was suggested going in.. 

The 1st paragraph in the prognostic discussion of the latest 3 week outlook ( issued yesterday )  sums up something i noticed earlier on.. Want to hear what two climatologists i listen to regularly when they post their monthly podcast have to say  but,   get a sense this particular La Nina was kind of wacky in that, if you look at where a majority of the cold water is set up on the Equator, it is in the S. Hemisphere, and/or displaced more in the central Pacific rather than filling in everything off Central America in the E. Pacific.. which actually looks a tad warm atm off the same area ( SST graph in the Pacific forecast section over on Stormsurf )

We all know when El Nino pulls the Modiki card, the traditional "typical" effects on the winter weather pattern -both here/ in CA., and across the rest of the country- can be either muted, or far reduced.  Don't doubt the same can happen when La Nina does the same thing. Could be wrong of course,  but...  The extremely negative Arctic Oscillation - Since late Nov./ early Dec. and whatever has caused that, could be greatly reducing or straight canceling out the La Nina influence..

Definitely complicated, and leaving me scratching my head..

As for whatever climate change might be influencing this rather weird event atm,  Could be, to some extent.. More blocking / stalled out / slower to move around weather patterns are some suggested effects.. but, like you said, i agree, sometimes weather -is just weather-  Lets just hope this pattern is a one off, not to be repeated again for quite some time, -if ever- again..

As for long rangers, have said it before, Take them with a grain of salt..  Optimism is fine, just don't bet the farm on optimism.

Compare it to looking at terrain maps of places i plan to hike. Those maps might give you a generalized idea of what the terrain might be like, but anticipate it could be a rougher hike ( sometimes by quite a bit ) than it looks in places when your feet are on the ground..

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bubba

Understand but Indiantown is East of Lake O!

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TampaPalms
2 hours ago, bubba said:

Understand but Indiantown is East of Lake O!

The article I read specified the southwest area. But the glades as a whole have been drained which moderate temperatures in the winter and summer.

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Matthew92

Watch out Northwest FL! Latest GFS run takes the hard freezing temps all the way here showing 24 deg. I'm only taking consideration into this model run since we are close enough in time now.

1014561920_Freeze1.thumb.JPG.2ebb2fe860430c9b1f5917fbb9a622da.JPG

1741162774_Freeze2.JPG.faadedd92cba8d303d428174a6c36c07.JPG

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AnTonY
On 2/13/2021 at 12:28 PM, bubba said:

Once again, feel horrible for Texas but still believe it will not be as catastrophic as predicted.

I'm looking through mesoscale models right now, and the NAM 3km is quite mild for Texas. That resolution has better account of the topography over both Old and New Mexico, as well as Texas. I'm watching the evolution of the pattern there to see what it means for temperatures over the rest of Texas.

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JLM
59 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Watch out Northwest FL! Latest GFS run takes the hard freezing temps all the way here showing 24 deg. I'm only taking consideration into this model run since we are close enough in time now.

1014561920_Freeze1.thumb.JPG.2ebb2fe860430c9b1f5917fbb9a622da.JPG

1741162774_Freeze2.JPG.faadedd92cba8d303d428174a6c36c07.JPG

Forecasted lw temperature drops every update for me. Was at 30F lastnight, woke up this morning to 28F in the forecast with wind chills in the 20-25 range. Wednesday morning might end up being very interesting. NWS New Orleans calling for rain/snow mix north of I-10. NWS Mobile saying temps will warm too quickly for frozen precip Wednesday morning along the coast. We shall see, but i do know that the temperatures will support some ice pellets or snow mixing in with rain should the precip come north early enough, if not completely ice or snow before transitioning to cold rain. Any frozen precip that occurs will only last a very short time, like NWS Mobile pointed out, temps will warm quickly. I am getting concerned with these colder trends though.

I also want to point out the precip situation for Monday night, should easterly flow be weak enough the freezing line may come much farther east than currently expected before precip ends Monday night, something to watch as well.

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JLM
3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Watch out Northwest FL! Latest GFS run takes the hard freezing temps all the way here showing 24 deg. I'm only taking consideration into this model run since we are close enough in time now.

1014561920_Freeze1.thumb.JPG.2ebb2fe860430c9b1f5917fbb9a622da.JPG

1741162774_Freeze2.JPG.faadedd92cba8d303d428174a6c36c07.JPG

CURSED IMAGE! My forecasted low is 24F now.

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pj_orlando_z9b
15 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I think something else that either wasn't taken into account, or wasn't taken into account enough by forecasters or forecast models has contributed to the winter that hasn't been as was suggested going in.. 

The 1st paragraph in the prognostic discussion of the latest 3 week outlook ( issued yesterday )  sums up something i noticed earlier on.. Want to hear what two climatologists i listen to regularly when they post their monthly podcast have to say  but,   get a sense this particular La Nina was kind of wacky in that, if you look at where a majority of the cold water is set up on the Equator, it is in the S. Hemisphere, and/or displaced more in the central Pacific rather than filling in everything off Central America in the E. Pacific.. which actually looks a tad warm atm off the same area ( SST graph in the Pacific forecast section over on Stormsurf )

We all know when El Nino pulls the Modiki card, the traditional "typical" effects on the winter weather pattern -both here/ in CA., and across the rest of the country- can be either muted, or far reduced.  Don't doubt the same can happen when La Nina does the same thing. Could be wrong of course,  but...  The extremely negative Arctic Oscillation - Since late Nov./ early Dec. and whatever has caused that, could be greatly reducing or straight canceling out the La Nina influence..

Definitely complicated, and leaving me scratching my head..

As for whatever climate change might be influencing this rather weird event atm,  Could be, to some extent.. More blocking / stalled out / slower to move around weather patterns are some suggested effects.. but, like you said, i agree, sometimes weather -is just weather-  Lets just hope this pattern is a one off, not to be repeated again for quite some time, -if ever- again..

As for long rangers, have said it before, Take them with a grain of salt..  Optimism is fine, just don't bet the farm on optimism.

Compare it to looking at terrain maps of places i plan to hike. Those maps might give you a generalized idea of what the terrain might be like, but anticipate it could be a rougher hike ( sometimes by quite a bit ) than it looks in places when your feet are on the ground..

I agree there are minor details that can affect weather patterns. The NAO has been negative for much of the winter but it doesn't appear to be extreme. I just find it odd how bad the odds were beaten for this cold pattern across the US. Even here in Orlando, Dec was 2.5 below and Jan did end up spot on to avg. The odds of an above normal winter were high. Feb is on pace to be well above which could offset the other months. 

nao.sprd2.gif

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Silas_Sancona
Just now, pj_orlando_z9b said:

I agree there are minor details that can affect weather patterns. The NAO has been negative for much of the winter but it doesn't appear to be extreme. I just find it odd how bad the odds were beaten for this cold pattern across the US. Even here in Orlando, Dec was 2.5 below and Jan did end up spot on to avg. The odds of an above normal winter were high. Feb is on pace to be well above which could offset the other months. 

nao.sprd2.gif

Yes, NAO has been in quite the funk as well this year.. though not as bad as the AO.

Definitely been an odd winter all around.. While the " dry/ mild winter " suggestion has played out here, lows have been cooler than normal ( though nothing crazy ) due to how dry it has been ( lower than typical Dew Points supposedly.. Ironic considering how low they already are out here.. ) Weird because in 2017-18, also a La Nina winter, it was drier ( pretty sure i had sprinkles once or twice that entire winter ) but don't recall lows being as chilly most of that winter.. Heated up pretty quickly as well as spring approached. Anyway..

Agree, can see how above normal warmth suggested by some for the end of Feb./ early March could balance out a rather cool/ cool-ish Dec./ Jan. ..at least for FL ( and here if we whiplash back to an extended stretch of mostly 80s -as has been hinted at over the last few days by some model runs/ our local NWS forecasts-  later next week thru the end of the month ) Texas could do the same.. though i'd be shocked if a post-winter analysis put them above normal, for the entire season..

Rest of the country?, esp. back east?.. not so sure, suspicious of a warmer than normal winter -overall- when the final data is analyzed.. guess we'll have to wait and see..  All i'll say is ..Next year?  no repeats please.. lock the cold behind a 50K ft high wall over the Arctic ( and loose the key ), or, at the very least, be sure it doesn't escape the Northeast, lol..

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Sabal_Louisiana

Around here, in January, I was puzzled by the lack of cold gradient b/w Gulf Coast, SE LA, even Florida, and points farther north.

During the first half of the month, we were "cold" with negative abnormalities only over the Gulf of Mexico, of all places. The lowest temp of the month was 32 in Corpus Christi but no lower than 28 in Atlanta. On some days highs were only in the 40s-50s along the Gulf Coast but about the same thing all the way up to Iowa. Now, this was offset by a warm second half and I'm thinking as we move into February,  especially since it was mild at the beginning, that even so, we should come out pretty good for the winter. 

But now, in February, we have this rather bizarre pattern with a crazy temperature gradient between southeast and northwest, of extreme, prolonged cold in the Plains down into Texas, even though it is barely touching the east coast.

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JLM

NWS Mobile has noted in their discussion at 10pm that most models are trending towards a quicker advancement of the cold air Monday night. This could mean that low temps may continue dropping, along with wind chill values.

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Matthew92

Ever since my above post the GFS has continued to trend colder here. Now consistently showing low 20's. Surprisingly my forecast low hasn't gone below 25. I expect low 20's though. Severe storms (even a slight tornado threat) today for the region while farther west New Orleans/Biloxi area might see frozen precip. However the hard freeze tonight may freeze puddles. Barrier island microclimates may lose their zone 10a streak.

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DCA_Palm_Fan
On 2/13/2021 at 11:49 PM, pj_orlando_z9b said:

I think people put way too much stock in global warming. I'm not trying to get into a debate about it, but weather still happens. These long range winter forecasts have a bias and prove useless as a result most times. In fact, they just released the late winter/spring outlook and as expected, above normal most of the US. They really do a disservice with all this bias. 

I think the term Global Warming is not only just old, it is a misnomer in many respects.  Climate Change seems more appropriate.   The climate is changing, and man is playing a distinct role in that process, and that is causing a lot more extremes to occur with more frequency.   While the global temperature profile is "warming" and driving the changing climate,  its far more intricate and nuanced that just simplified "global warming".     

As to your point about bias, I'm not convinced that there actually is too much of that going on.   I think most of this is based off of actual scientific data, both past and current.  Just my .02  

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DCA_Palm_Fan

You can clearly see on this satellite image where the cold air is over the relatively warm Gulf of Mexico.   I figured we were going to see some interesting clouds / satellite imagery because of this arctic blast.  Seems not to be disappointing in that regard. 

2.15.2020GOESeastGulfMex.png

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JLM
2 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Ever since my above post the GFS has continued to trend colder here. Now consistently showing low 20's. Surprisingly my forecast low hasn't gone below 25. I expect low 20's though. Severe storms (even a slight tornado threat) today for the region while farther west New Orleans/Biloxi area might see frozen precip. However the hard freeze tonight may freeze puddles. Barrier island microclimates may lose their zone 10a streak.

My low dropped again overnight. Now 23F. Wind chills in the 10-20 range. Queens are being wrapped after the rain stops!

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Jimbean

Saturday morning is trending downward.  Forecast now at 45F, but will probably fall further. 

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Palmaceae

It is very sad to see what is happening in Texas, but this very well could have happened in Florida instead of Texas.  As I have said before, I lived the freezes in Florida in the 80s and a lot have said that it probably will not happen again, but we are seeing it now it Texas. Weather goes in cycles, and unfortunately this will probably happen in Florida at some point in the future. 

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JLM

Hard Freeze Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories extended into my county. Forecasted low in the 19-22F range for tonight, wind chills possible in the 5-15F range. We will see how this goes.

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NickJames

My A. Cunninghamiana newest spear opened and it’s a wonderful shade of green. It does not appear damaged by that freeze/heavy frost!!

336FBBD2-5ED7-4885-B55C-E4DD2C5D3270.jpeg

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JLM

If my forecasted low drops any further im gonna freak, now forecasted to be 21F with chills in the 10-15F range. I expect to wake up to brown fronds tomorrow morning.

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pj_orlando_z9b
6 hours ago, DCA_Palm_Fan said:

I think the term Global Warming is not only just old, it is a misnomer in many respects.  Climate Change seems more appropriate.   The climate is changing, and man is playing a distinct role in that process, and that is causing a lot more extremes to occur with more frequency.   While the global temperature profile is "warming" and driving the changing climate,  its far more intricate and nuanced that just simplified "global warming".     

As to your point about bias, I'm not convinced that there actually is too much of that going on.   I think most of this is based off of actual scientific data, both past and current.  Just my .02  

2 weeks out.  Glad the scientific data supported TWC!

Screenshot_20210215-192255_Twitter.jpg

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JLM

I wrapped them all. I tied up the fronds, wrapped in christmas lights, then wrapped in a sheet, then i added a contractor bag layer to potentially act as a wind break. We'll see, definitely the coldest air of the winter here.

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Matthew92
1 hour ago, JLM said:

If my forecasted low drops any further im gonna freak, now forecasted to be 21F with chills in the 10-15F range. I expect to wake up to brown fronds tomorrow morning.

What site do you use? I know my and your lows have been almost the same during this winter. Weather Channel, Wunderground, and National Weather Service say 24f tonight here. I have a feeling it will be colder if the GFS verifies.

Just got below 50 degrees for most of the area. While there seems to be confidence that it will get well down into the 20's, the temp will have to drop pretty steadily to get there. Interestingly, there's not a huge different on the mainland vs the coast with it only 2-3 degrees warmer there.

Edited by Matthew92
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JLM
1 minute ago, Matthew92 said:

What site do you use? I know my and your lows have been almost the same during this winter. Weather Channel, Wunderground, and National Weather Service say 24f tonight here. I have a feeling it will be colder if the GFS verifies.

Just got below 50 degrees for most of the area. Interestingly, there's not a huge different on the mainland vs the coast with it only 2-3 degrees warmer there.

Im using the NWS. They have been lowering the forecast throughout the day today.

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Matthew92

Apparently this will be an advective freeze with winds 10 to 20mph, so microclimates will not be as protected. Back in December, we did hit 23-25 deg with a radiational freeze, but of course things under canopy or coastal microclimates were a lot more protected. I even have a shrimp plant in a pot under oak trees that remained green through that!

Edited by Matthew92
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Silas_Sancona
11 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

2 weeks out.  Glad the scientific data supported TWC!

Screenshot_20210215-192255_Twitter.jpg

:rolleyes: Weather Channel predictions, Ha!

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JLM
4 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Apparently this will be an advective freeze with winds 10 to 20mph, so microclimates may not be as protected. Back in December, we did hit 23-25 deg with a radiational freeze, but of course things under canopy or coastal microclimates were a lot more protected. I even have a shrimp plant in a pot under oak trees that remained green through that!

Had to look up what that was, but wow! Gulf Breeze is expecting a low of 27F tonight with wind chill in the 15-20 range.

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DCA_Palm_Fan
47 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

2 weeks out.  Glad the scientific data supported TWC!

Screenshot_20210215-192255_Twitter.jpg

Oh I know. Its supposed to have been above average here where I am since October, and its only been that for a few days up until a week or so ago.  Now its been well above average for a good little while..  Not disputing that they all got it wrong.   I think this is more science / data driven than anything though as opposed to some forecast skewed by some political agenda.  But like you said, we wont get into that.  To each their own.  

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Estlander
1 hour ago, JLM said:

Gulf Breeze is expecting a low of 27F tonight with wind chill in the 15-20 range.

27F?! Wow! Probably because further westward you go the colder it gets. A low of 30F between 6-8am predicted for me here. 

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JLM
1 hour ago, Estlander said:

27F?! Wow! Probably because further westward you go the colder it gets. A low of 30F between 6-8am predicted for me here. 

Currently 35F here and dropping quickly. NWS Mobile reporting snow flurries at their office right now.

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JLM

About to hit freezing. Wind chill down to about 25F right now, this is only the beginning.

 

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JLM

Hit 32F at 11:04 PM CST. Flurries reported a few miles to my northwest.

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Matthew92
12 minutes ago, JLM said:

About to hit freezing. Wind chill down to about 25F right now, this is only the beginning.

 

Taking longer to get there here. only 41F still. Cold temps still creeping their way east.

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JLM

Ultimate low of 24F, just a degree or two above the coldest night we've had up here. Wind was consistantly blowing at about 5-10 mph lastnight, resulting in a minimum wind chill of 13F. Everything looks fine, tangerine has some leaf spotting.

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Matthew92

Hard freeze didn't make it quite as far East as predicted I think. Only 27F here. That much of a difference between me and you @JLM that shows how far the arctic air mass made it to the East. Interestingly, everyone is holding on to their low temps right now at almost 9am. Okaloosa and West Walton Beach microclimates only 2-3 degrees warmer (much less difference than during a radiational event). A few 29-28 readings in those coastal locations, but mostly 30-31. However, it has been at these temps for at least couple hours now. I think since there is cloud cover and that this arctic air mass is potent enough, it is resulting in temperature rebound not occurring quickly.

Edited by Matthew92
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Estlander

Got down to 31F here. 

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JLM
3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Hard freeze didn't make it quite as far East as predicted I think. Only 27F here. That much of a difference between me and you @JLM that shows how far the arctic air mass made it to the East. Interestingly, everyone is holding on to their low temps right now at almost 9am. Okaloosa and West Walton Beach microclimates only 2-3 degrees warmer (much less difference than during a radiational event). A few 29-28 readings in those coastal locations, but mostly 30-31. However, it has been at these temps for at least couple hours now. I think since there is cloud cover and that this arctic air mass is potent enough, it is resulting in temperature rebound not occurring quickly.

As soon as the clouds broke and the sun came out i unwrapped the Queens. Temps were still below freezing, but i didnt want them to bake inside the plastic as the temperature was probably 10F warmer inside the wrapping than it was outside. Everything looks fine for now, watching for any damage that may show up later. Hopefully, fingers crossed, after this next series of freezing nights at the end of this week, Spring will officially start. Im not seeing anymore freezes in the models for right now, but only one or two nights with temps low enough for frost. Maybe we see our first 80F day before the end of February? Would be nice.

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