Matthew92 1,153 Report post Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) One other thing I thought I'd add. I found it interesting to see the evolution of the forecasts in the several days leading up to the Jan 18, 2018 freeze in this thread from then. Here's a screenshot from a post I made 4 days out from the cold night. 24 degrees predicted ended up being 6 degrees lower at 18 degrees. And as I remember with other freeze events, it was not known how cold it was going to be until much sooner in time (maybe the 3 day range). As seen later in that thread, my forecast low went down to 21 degrees (still 3 degrees off) 2 days out. Also as seen on that thread, it looks like some places in the Tampa area went from forecast low of 31-30 to 28 in the 24-36 hours before the event. Edited February 2, 2021 by Matthew92 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RedRabbit 2,033 Report post Posted February 2, 2021 7 hours ago, NickJames said: For once I was above forecast as well! Only got down to 42; about 6 degrees above forecast. What’s your forecast looking like for the next couple days? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AnTonY 193 Report post Posted February 2, 2021 Latest model runs are much better for the Southern US as a whole, concerning this near-term period. But there's still many days to go, not to mention a seemingly volatile pattern present throughout the month, just to be on guard. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, RedRabbit said: What’s your forecast looking like for the next couple days? Still not good...34 tonight and 30 tomorrow night. I’m going to cover stuff shortly and basically leave it until Thursday AM. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reeverse 833 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 I have a feeling it’s going to get colder than forecasted tonight. Hope not but temp is dropping and tons of snow cover in the Northeast 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kinzyjr 5,765 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Overnight Lows last night for me were between 44F and 47F, spread across 5 sensors. Forecast is for 36F tonight and tomorrow night as well. Here is a comparison with some other weather stations on Weather Underground: 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, Reeverse said: I have a feeling it’s going to get colder than forecasted tonight. Hope not but temp is dropping and tons of snow cover in the Northeast There is a big fire burning tonight in the forest. Smoke plume was amazing at sunset. I’m hoping I can get some temperature moderation from all the fire heat LOL. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, kinzyjr said: Overnight Lows last night for me were between 44F and 47F, spread across 5 sensors. Forecast is for 36F tonight and tomorrow night as well. Here is a comparison with some other weather stations on Weather Underground: Nice. I really need to get the multi sensor array for my yard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Winds calmed to nothing so my temp is dropping like a rock! 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JJPalmer 596 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, NickJames said: Nice. I really need to get the multi sensor array for my yard. Which model/brand PWS do you have? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, JJPalmer said: Which model/brand PWS do you have? Weather Station ID: KFLDAYTO84 Station Name:First Warning Weather Center - Mosaic, FL Latitude / Longitude:29.205° N, 81.136° W Elevation:46 City:Daytona Beach State:FL Hardware:Ambient Weather WS-2902 Software:AMBWeatherV4.1.7 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JJPalmer 596 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, NickJames said: Weather Station ID: KFLDAYTO84 Station Name:First Warning Weather Center - Mosaic, FL Latitude / Longitude:29.205° N, 81.136° W Elevation:46 City:Daytona Beach State:FL Hardware:Ambient Weather WS-2902 Software:AMBWeatherV4.1.7 I have the WS-2000, so essentially the same array just with additional sensor capabilities. I’ve enjoyed it so far. I’m sure people over on WXForum could build you a ‘better’ setup for the price, but the simplicity of this machine is great. Accuracy has been superb as well. Edited February 3, 2021 by JJPalmer 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, JJPalmer said: I have the WS-2000, so essentially the same array just with additional sensor capabilities. I’ve enjoyed it so far. I’m sure people over on WXForum could build you a ‘better’ setup for the price, but the simplicity of this machine is great. Accuracy has been superb as well. This is the most accurate Setup I’ve ever had so far! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JLM 1,338 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Currently 47F on the patio, going to move the sensor out to a different spot tonight for experimental purposes. Forecasted low for Sunday went from 29F to 37F, i dont trust it one bit lol 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kinzyjr 5,765 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, JLM said: Currently 47F on the patio, going to move the sensor out to a different spot tonight for experimental purposes. Forecasted low for Sunday went from 29F to 37F, i dont trust it one bit lol Hopefully a false alarm on the Feb. 7th-10th deal. The weather forecasts I'm looking at haven't showed anything serious and the latest models posted by @JJPalmer seem to back off of severe arctic air intrusion, at least down here around the 28th parallel. Hope that the forecast and the actual weather we receive keeps you well above freezing. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pj_orlando_z9b 1,243 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, NickJames said: Winds calmed to nothing so my temp is dropping like a rock! Looks like my dewpoint rising has stabilized temps. The wind reduction helps me some as I'm off a big lake. Edited February 3, 2021 by pj_orlando_z9b 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pj_orlando_z9b 1,243 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 44 minutes ago, kinzyjr said: Hopefully a false alarm on the Feb. 7th-10th deal. The weather forecasts I'm looking at haven't showed anything serious and the latest models posted by @JJPalmer seem to back off of severe arctic air intrusion, at least down here around the 28th parallel. Hope that the forecast and the actual weather we receive keeps you well above freezing. The trend is good the last couple days. Models now suggesting the arctic air moves W to E rather than S. Euro for Orlando below. By comparison they have places like Pittsburgh near 0 Monday night. That's That's 60 degree difference. Time will tell. Edited February 3, 2021 by pj_orlando_z9b 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ruskinPalms 934 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 46F in my hood at this time. Wind stayed up out of the northwest last night which saved me. Low 30s and even below freezing temps all over the place just to the north and east from me in areas like in Riverview, Brandon and the northeast suburbs of Tampa. I think tonight will be my coldest night of the year when the wind dies down. Edited February 3, 2021 by ruskinPalms 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbean 954 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 40F at my location, but down the street is 38F according to weather underground. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JJPalmer 596 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Currently at the lowest temperature of the night in my yard at 41.2°. Every time the winds calm the temps plummet. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hombre de Palmas 93 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 36.1F this morning and frost on my exposed front yard and on my neighbor's roof. My neighborhood seems to be on the low end of the temperature range this morning. If we don't get some clouds to come in this evening, tonight is forecast to be even worse. Edited February 3, 2021 by Hombre de Palmas 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickJames 1,578 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 No freeze (surprised). Didn’t go below 33. Occasional winds during the night helped. No frost observed. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbean 954 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Here's some maps I saved from 7:15 this morning. 4 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbean 954 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 The weather stations closet to me recorded the following lows: 39F, 38F, 37F, 38F, 36F, and 38F. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JLM 1,338 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Low of 28F in the backyard lastnight, forecast was 32F. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JLM 1,338 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 06z GFS has gone too far in the wrong direction. 0z showed a light freeze, so for right now i expect at least a night or two of temps in the 30-35 range. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
palmsOrl 2,045 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Single digits for Atlanta? Certainly happens from time to time, but I doubt it will get that low there tonight. Lowest temp I saw on all those maps for the Peninsula is Brooker(sp?) near Gainesville at 22F. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RedRabbit 2,033 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) The NW wind kept this area from getting too cold thankfully. Westchase- 40.6f St. Pete - 40f Nokomis - 46f It will be colder tonight with a decent shot of freezing temps here. Edited February 3, 2021 by RedRabbit 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RedRabbit 2,033 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, palmsOrl said: Single digits for Atlanta? Certainly happens from time to time, but I doubt it will get that low there tonight. Lowest temp I saw on all those maps for the Peninsula is Brooker(sp?) near Gainesville at 22F. Gainesville is cold! My brother lives on the outskirts and had something like 21f earlier this year with heavy frost. I believe I was at 37f that night by comparison. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JJPalmer 596 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Here is the latest NWS prediction for tonight's temps. Quite chilly statewide. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IHB1979 277 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Should be an interesting night, not liking the phrase, "Any saving grace from falling temperatures late tonight might be some encroaching cirrus from the northwest, which may not arrive.." My low is ranging from 35-41F. (NOAA, Accuweather, Wunderground) From the NWS Melbourne: National Weather Service Melbourne FL 942 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 .DISCUSSION... ...Freezing Temperatures Likely In Some Areas Tonight... Surface high pressure will build out of the central CONUS today towards the FL peninsula and then over the area tonight. This scenario usually produces the coldest temperatures for ECFL following a strong frontal passage as the airmass will be extremely dry and winds light to calm. Optimal radiational cooling will take place overnight. So, coming up tonight will absolutely be the coldest night of the week, but without any wind chills. Any saving grace from falling temperatures late tonight might be some encroaching cirrus from the northwest, which may not arrive (if at all) until a few hours ahead of sunrise and first across the I-4 corridor. Temperatures will again fall very rapidly after sunset. Will scrutinize the 12Z Mos Guidance and decide if any of our current "Freeze Watch" counties need updating to the "Freeze Warning". Previous Tonight Discussion... Center of the high pressure migrates across the NE Gulf of Mexico, reaching the north-central Florida peninsula late tonight. Winds are forecast to go calm in most spots after sunset, allowing strong radiational cooling to take place. Temperatures quickly drop in the 40s after sunset, eventually bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s overnight, except mid/upper 30s in Martin County. Conditions appear most favorable for a freeze tonight, and less so for widespread frost. However, there are two complicating factors that make this a somewhat uncertain forecast. Cirrus clouds are likely to start streaming over Florida late tonight, which could prevent temps from falling to freezing if the clouds are thick enough. Also, dew point depressions are quite high (5-8 degrees), meaning there might not be enough moisture at the surface for frost to develop. Though with dew points forecast in the upper 20s, and calm winds, a freeze is more likely to occur. Confidence is high enough to warrant a "Freeze Warning" for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole and northern Brevard counties where temps will drop to 31F-32F for several hours early Thursday morning. The urban Orlando corridor along I-4 will not freeze. The coldest temperatures are expected in suburban, rural, and traditionally colder locations. Further south, the forecast is more uncertain with temperatures forecast to be just around freezing. To account for the freeze potential, a "Freeze Watch" has been issued for southern Brevard, Osceola, Okeechobee, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. Based on updated model guidance later this afternoon, this watch could be upgraded to a "Freeze Warning". The barrier islands from the Cape south will not experience a freeze. Protective actions should be taken to prevent freeze and frost damage to sensitive plants and other vegetation, as well as to outdoor pets and sensitive persons. Cold weather shelters are open in many communities. Check with local county emergency management for locations and operating hours of shelters. Be extra cautious if using space heaters and keep them well away from combustible material such as pillows, blankets, and curtains. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kinzyjr 5,765 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 As the map from @Jimbean indicates, pretty varied temperatures. I recorded temperatures between 33F and 40.5F - a pretty large range over one property. Stations in the area: 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JLM 1,338 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 My mistake, i didnt put a time stamp on the image above, thats for Saturday Feb 13th. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dave-Vero 675 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Orlando heat island? National Weather Service is forecasting 36 tonight (Wednesday) for Orlando, 33 for Vero Beach. Admittedly, they seem stuck on giving Vero the coldest predicted low in the area. Melbourne's higher. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hombre de Palmas 93 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Dave-Vero said: Orlando heat island? National Weather Service is forecasting 36 tonight (Wednesday) for Orlando, 33 for Vero Beach. Admittedly, they seem stuck on giving Vero the coldest predicted low in the area. Melbourne's higher. I felt picked on for PSL. Turned out they was right! Maybe our luck will turn tonight. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dave-Vero 675 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 Just under 2 million peeps, about the same size as Portland, Oregon. Leu's little lake helps, too. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IHB1979 277 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said: I felt picked on for PSL. Turned out they was right! Maybe our luck will turn tonight. Frost and near freezing temps around Melbourne this evening. NWS issued a frost advisory statement this afternoon. Last frost in my location was 11 years ago. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RedRabbit 2,033 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Dave-Vero said: Orlando heat island? National Weather Service is forecasting 36 tonight (Wednesday) for Orlando, 33 for Vero Beach. Admittedly, they seem stuck on giving Vero the coldest predicted low in the area. Melbourne's higher. It’s pretty bold of them to unequivocally state that Orlando will not freeze. I’m not saying it will, but what makes them so confident of that? Their forecasts aren’t perfect and a freeze seems like it’s within their margin for error. Edited February 3, 2021 by RedRabbit Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbean 954 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 We'll see what happens. If we get any shift in the wind from that nasty NW direction, it shouldn't get that low. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hombre de Palmas 93 Report post Posted February 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, IHB1979 said: Frost and near freezing temps around Melbourne this evening. NWS issued a frost advisory statement this afternoon. Last frost in my location was 11 years ago. They had a freeze watch out earlier, but now we are under the Frost Advisory. We already had a light frost last night so this is insult to injury. Well, a reality check is dished out from time to time whether we want one or not. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
