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Matthew92

Florida Freeze Watch: Jan-Feb 2021

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Matthew92

One other thing I thought I'd add. I found it interesting to see the evolution of the forecasts in the several days leading up to the Jan 18, 2018 freeze in this thread from then. Here's a screenshot from a post I made 4 days out from the cold night. 24 degrees predicted ended up being 6 degrees lower at 18 degrees. And as I remember with other freeze events, it was not known how cold it was going to be until much sooner in time (maybe the 3 day range). As seen later in that thread, my forecast low went down to 21 degrees (still 3 degrees off) 2 days out. Also as seen on that thread, it looks like some places in the Tampa area went from forecast low of 31-30 to 28 in the 24-36 hours before the event.

2018.thumb.JPG.71cbc641f671f1fd07fa229576fea26f.JPG

Edited by Matthew92
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RedRabbit
7 hours ago, NickJames said:

For once I was above forecast as well! Only got down to 42; about 6 degrees above forecast. 

What’s your forecast looking like for the next couple days?

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AnTonY

Latest model runs are much better for the Southern US as a whole, concerning this near-term period. But there's still many days to go, not to mention a seemingly volatile pattern present throughout the month, just to be on guard.

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NickJames
25 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

What’s your forecast looking like for the next couple days?

Still not good...34 tonight and 30 tomorrow night. I’m going to cover stuff shortly and basically leave it until Thursday AM. 

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Reeverse

I have a feeling it’s going to get colder than forecasted tonight. Hope not but temp is dropping and tons of snow cover in the Northeast

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kinzyjr

Overnight Lows last night for me were between 44F and 47F, spread across 5 sensors.  Forecast is for 36F tonight and tomorrow night as well.  Here is a comparison with some other weather stations on Weather Underground:

image.png.7d817276d1aca255dcc631d25027f700.png

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NickJames
26 minutes ago, Reeverse said:

I have a feeling it’s going to get colder than forecasted tonight. Hope not but temp is dropping and tons of snow cover in the Northeast

There is a big fire burning tonight in the forest. Smoke plume was amazing at sunset. I’m hoping I can get some temperature moderation from all the fire heat LOL. 

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NickJames
17 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Overnight Lows last night for me were between 44F and 47F, spread across 5 sensors.  Forecast is for 36F tonight and tomorrow night as well.  Here is a comparison with some other weather stations on Weather Underground:

image.png.7d817276d1aca255dcc631d25027f700.png

Nice. I really need to get the multi sensor array for my yard. 

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NickJames

Winds calmed to nothing so my temp is dropping like a rock!

DA77F09D-0AED-4C26-9595-49C2242F7776.jpeg

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JJPalmer
Just now, NickJames said:

Nice. I really need to get the multi sensor array for my yard. 

Which model/brand PWS do you have? 

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NickJames
1 minute ago, JJPalmer said:

Which model/brand PWS do you have? 

Weather Station ID: KFLDAYTO84

Station Name:First Warning Weather Center - Mosaic, FL

Latitude / Longitude:29.205° N, 81.136° W
Elevation:46

City:Daytona Beach
State:FL

Hardware:Ambient Weather WS-2902

Software:AMBWeatherV4.1.7

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JJPalmer
3 minutes ago, NickJames said:

Weather Station ID: KFLDAYTO84

Station Name:First Warning Weather Center - Mosaic, FL

Latitude / Longitude:29.205° N, 81.136° W
Elevation:46

City:Daytona Beach
State:FL

Hardware:Ambient Weather WS-2902

Software:AMBWeatherV4.1.7

I have the WS-2000, so essentially the same array just with additional sensor capabilities. I’ve enjoyed it so far. I’m sure people over on WXForum could build you a ‘better’ setup for the price, but the simplicity of this machine is great. Accuracy has been superb as well.

Edited by JJPalmer
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NickJames
24 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

I have the WS-2000, so essentially the same array just with additional sensor capabilities. I’ve enjoyed it so far. I’m sure people over on WXForum could build you a ‘better’ setup for the price, but the simplicity of this machine is great. Accuracy has been superb as well.

This is the most accurate Setup I’ve ever had so far!

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JLM

Currently 47F on the patio, going to move the sensor out to a different spot tonight for experimental purposes. 
Forecasted low for Sunday went from 29F to 37F, i dont trust it one bit lol

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kinzyjr
4 minutes ago, JLM said:

Currently 47F on the patio, going to move the sensor out to a different spot tonight for experimental purposes. 
Forecasted low for Sunday went from 29F to 37F, i dont trust it one bit lol

Hopefully a false alarm on the Feb. 7th-10th deal.  The weather forecasts I'm looking at haven't showed anything serious and the latest models posted by @JJPalmer seem to back off of severe arctic air intrusion, at least down here around the 28th parallel.  Hope that the forecast and the actual weather we receive keeps you well above freezing.

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pj_orlando_z9b
1 hour ago, NickJames said:

Winds calmed to nothing so my temp is dropping like a rock!

DA77F09D-0AED-4C26-9595-49C2242F7776.jpeg

Looks like my dewpoint rising has stabilized temps. The wind reduction helps me some as I'm off a big lake. 

Screenshot_20210202-213428_Chrome.jpg

Edited by pj_orlando_z9b
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pj_orlando_z9b
44 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Hopefully a false alarm on the Feb. 7th-10th deal.  The weather forecasts I'm looking at haven't showed anything serious and the latest models posted by @JJPalmer seem to back off of severe arctic air intrusion, at least down here around the 28th parallel.  Hope that the forecast and the actual weather we receive keeps you well above freezing.

The trend is good the last couple days. Models now suggesting the arctic air moves W to E rather than S. Euro for Orlando below. By comparison they have places like Pittsburgh near 0 Monday night. That's That's 60 degree difference.  Time will tell. 

download.png

Edited by pj_orlando_z9b
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ruskinPalms

46F in my hood at this time. Wind stayed up out of the northwest last night which saved me. Low 30s and even below freezing temps all over the place just to the north and east from me in areas like in Riverview, Brandon and the northeast suburbs of Tampa. I think tonight will be my coldest night of the year when the wind dies down.

Edited by ruskinPalms
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Jimbean

40F at my location, but down the street is 38F according to weather underground.

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JJPalmer

Currently at the lowest temperature of the night in my yard at 41.2°.  Every time the winds calm the temps plummet. 

20D36B3D-24B1-46F1-8EE0-E6CC947EEA67.jpeg

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Hombre de Palmas

36.1F this morning and frost on my exposed front yard and on my neighbor's roof. My neighborhood seems to be on the low end of the temperature range this morning.

If we don't get some clouds to come in this evening, tonight is forecast to be even worse.

Edited by Hombre de Palmas
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NickJames

No freeze (surprised). Didn’t go below 33. Occasional winds during the night helped. No frost observed. 

9FB0A0BA-6225-4BB3-BC23-2149B25E39B7.jpeg

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Jimbean

Here's some maps I saved from 7:15 this morning.

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Jimbean

The weather stations closet to me recorded the following lows:

39F, 38F, 37F, 38F, 36F, and 38F.

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JLM

Low of 28F in the backyard lastnight, forecast was 32F.

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JLM

06z GFS has gone too far in the wrong direction. 0z showed a light freeze, so for right now i expect at least a night or two of temps in the 30-35 range.

gfssssss.PNG

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palmsOrl

Single digits for Atlanta?  Certainly happens from time to time, but I doubt it will get that low there tonight.

Lowest temp I saw on all those maps for the Peninsula is Brooker(sp?) near Gainesville at 22F.

 

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RedRabbit

The NW wind kept this area from getting too cold thankfully.

Westchase- 40.6f

St. Pete - 40f

Nokomis - 46f

 

It will be colder tonight with a decent shot of freezing temps here.

Edited by RedRabbit
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RedRabbit
15 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Single digits for Atlanta?  Certainly happens from time to time, but I doubt it will get that low there tonight.

Lowest temp I saw on all those maps for the Peninsula is Brooker(sp?) near Gainesville at 22F.

 

Gainesville is cold! My brother lives on the outskirts and had something like 21f earlier this year with heavy frost. I believe I was at 37f that night by comparison. 

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JJPalmer
Here is the latest NWS prediction for tonight's temps.  Quite chilly statewide.
ndfd_sfctmin.us_se.png
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IHB1979

Should be an interesting night, not liking the phrase, "Any saving grace from falling temperatures late tonight might be some encroaching cirrus from the northwest, which may not arrive.."

My low is ranging from 35-41F. (NOAA, Accuweather, Wunderground)

From the NWS Melbourne:

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
942 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Freezing Temperatures Likely In Some Areas Tonight...

Surface high pressure will build out of the central CONUS today
towards the FL peninsula and then over the area tonight. This
scenario usually produces the coldest temperatures for ECFL
following a strong frontal passage as the airmass will be extremely
dry and winds light to calm. Optimal radiational cooling will take
place overnight. So, coming up tonight will absolutely be the
coldest night of the week, but without any wind chills. Any saving
grace from falling temperatures late tonight might be some
encroaching cirrus from the northwest, which may not arrive (if at
all) until a few hours ahead of sunrise and first across the I-4
corridor. Temperatures will again fall very rapidly after sunset.
Will scrutinize the 12Z Mos Guidance and decide if any of our
current "Freeze Watch" counties need updating to the "Freeze
Warning".

Previous Tonight Discussion...

Center of the high pressure migrates across the NE Gulf of Mexico,
reaching the north-central Florida peninsula late tonight. Winds are
forecast to go calm in most spots after sunset, allowing strong
radiational cooling to take place. Temperatures quickly drop in the
40s after sunset, eventually bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s
overnight, except mid/upper 30s in Martin County.

Conditions appear most favorable for a freeze tonight, and less so
for widespread frost. However, there are two complicating factors
that make this a somewhat uncertain forecast. Cirrus clouds are
likely to start streaming over Florida late tonight, which could
prevent temps from falling to freezing if the clouds are thick
enough. Also, dew point depressions are quite high (5-8 degrees),
meaning there might not be enough moisture at the surface for frost
to develop. Though with dew points forecast in the upper 20s, and
calm winds, a freeze is more likely to occur.

Confidence is high enough to warrant a "Freeze Warning" for Lake,
Volusia, Orange, Seminole and northern Brevard counties where temps
will drop to 31F-32F for several hours early Thursday morning. The
urban Orlando corridor along I-4 will not freeze. The coldest
temperatures are expected in suburban, rural, and traditionally
colder locations.

Further south, the forecast is more uncertain with temperatures
forecast to be just around freezing. To account for the freeze
potential, a "Freeze Watch" has been issued for southern Brevard,
Osceola, Okeechobee, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. Based on
updated model guidance later this afternoon, this watch could be
upgraded to a "Freeze Warning". The barrier islands from the Cape
south will not experience a freeze.

Protective actions should be taken to prevent freeze and frost
damage to sensitive plants and other vegetation, as well as to
outdoor pets and sensitive persons. Cold weather shelters are open
in many communities. Check with local county emergency management
for locations and operating hours of shelters. Be extra cautious if
using space heaters and keep them well away from combustible
material such as pillows, blankets, and curtains.
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kinzyjr

As the map from @Jimbean indicates, pretty varied temperatures.  I recorded temperatures between 33F and 40.5F - a pretty large range over one property.  Stations in the area:

image.png.f11948277815b0f7abfa682af3b712c9.png

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JLM

My mistake, i didnt put a time stamp on the image above, thats for Saturday Feb 13th.

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Dave-Vero

Orlando heat island?  National Weather Service is forecasting 36 tonight (Wednesday) for Orlando, 33 for Vero Beach.  Admittedly, they seem stuck on giving Vero the coldest predicted low in the area.  Melbourne's higher.

 

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Hombre de Palmas
3 minutes ago, Dave-Vero said:

Orlando heat island?  National Weather Service is forecasting 36 tonight (Wednesday) for Orlando, 33 for Vero Beach.  Admittedly, they seem stuck on giving Vero the coldest predicted low in the area.  Melbourne's higher.

 

I felt picked on for PSL. Turned out they was right!:crying:

Maybe our luck will turn tonight.

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Dave-Vero

Just under 2 million peeps, about the same size as Portland, Oregon.  Leu's little lake helps, too.  

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IHB1979
4 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

I felt picked on for PSL. Turned out they was right!:crying:

Maybe our luck will turn tonight.

Frost and near freezing temps around Melbourne this evening. NWS issued a frost advisory statement this afternoon.  Last frost in my location was 11 years ago.

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RedRabbit
33 minutes ago, Dave-Vero said:

Orlando heat island?  National Weather Service is forecasting 36 tonight (Wednesday) for Orlando, 33 for Vero Beach.  Admittedly, they seem stuck on giving Vero the coldest predicted low in the area.  Melbourne's higher.

 

It’s pretty bold of them to unequivocally state that Orlando will not freeze. I’m not saying it will, but what makes them so confident of that? Their forecasts aren’t perfect and a freeze seems like it’s within their margin for error.

Edited by RedRabbit

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Jimbean

We'll see what happens.  If we get any shift in the wind from that nasty NW direction, it shouldn't get that low.

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Hombre de Palmas
13 minutes ago, IHB1979 said:

Frost and near freezing temps around Melbourne this evening. NWS issued a frost advisory statement this afternoon.  Last frost in my location was 11 years ago.

They had a freeze watch out earlier, but now we are under the Frost Advisory. We already had a light frost last night so this is insult to injury.

Well, a reality check is dished out from time to time whether we want one or not.

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