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Florida Freeze Watch: Jan-Feb 2021

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chinandega81
9 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

My assessment halfway through winter this year is that while I haven't set any record lows, our season has been cooler and cloudier than normal. Highs don't go above low 70s, usually the 60s; lows anywhere from mid-40s to low 50s (Jan. average is 55/75) and days go by where we see the sun little if at all. Fortunately, no rain except for the occasional daytime drizzle. I read last fall that La Nina can cause this. Just another 4-6 weeks of this, I hope. I'll be thrilled if we don't see any lows below 40F.

I agree. I don't recall such a cloudy winter in South Florida before. Fortunately, today, the sun has finally come out...but more cloudy days are forecast. 

I think despite several cold front passages, we haven't seen the typical warm up or rebounds in between. Although the cold hasn't been extreme, neither has the warmth. Just a dry mild to cool winter. I know it could be worse for sure....let's see what February has in store for us.

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NickJames
1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

My assessment halfway through winter this year is that while I haven't set any record lows, our season has been cooler and cloudier than normal. Highs don't go above low 70s, usually the 60s; lows anywhere from mid-40s to low 50s (Jan. average is 55/75) and days go by where we see the sun little if at all. Fortunately, no rain except for the occasional daytime drizzle. I read last fall that La Nina can cause this. Just another 4-6 weeks of this, I hope. I'll be thrilled if we don't see any lows below 40F.

I’m now at a point where I’ll be thrilled if we don’t see any below 30 at my house :( 

Agree with your assessment 100%. December was just awful here, but not an ‘extreme’ awful - just all the cold weather seems prolonged and no recovery. 

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ahosey01
On 1/15/2021 at 11:27 AM, NickJames said:

I’m now at a point where I’ll be thrilled if we don’t see any below 30 at my house :( 

Agree with your assessment 100%. December was just awful here, but not an ‘extreme’ awful - just all the cold weather seems prolonged and no recovery. 

How’s the yard holding up?

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NickJames
49 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

How’s the yard holding up?

It’s ok, I guess. D. Lutescens have foliage burn. 

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pj_orlando_z9b
On 1/10/2021 at 8:52 PM, chinandega81 said:

It's called an inside slider out west. They are cold fronts that basically pull down continental airmasses and are starved of moisture. They can bring cold Santa Ana winds and leave more cold in their wake. Although less frequent for an artctic outbreak to hit the western US because of geography, it does happen. Coastal areas of San Diego Country were in the upper 20s as per the owner of Jungle Music Nursery a few times. The urban LA Basin gets frost every winter, with the mountains and concrete jungle everywhere. The cold even makes it out to the Channel Islands....so no where in the continental US is really free from the polar vortex, it just takes a different form. 


In the East, they go way south so it's newsbreaking and it affects a ton of people. For it to do the same into the Southwest, it crosses a lot of unpopulated mountainous areas that are expected to be cold so it isn't as newsbreaking.

Nonetheless, it does seems like the east is more prone to cold waves in winter and that translates to a heat bubble out west. I suppose it's just geography since it's easier for artic air too ooze south at low elevations without any impediments.

Makes sense. We need the Appalachians to be taller. :)

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RedRabbit

Wow, it actually froze for some people on the east coast this morning. I wasn’t aware it was even supposed to be cold, we had a low of 52f here. 

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NickJames
46 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Wow, it actually froze for some people on the east coast this morning. I wasn’t aware it was even supposed to be cold, we had a low of 52f here. 

Yeah. Ugh. Posting momentarily. 

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NickJames

Officially on my backyard weather station. 
 

not really much frost observed though. Definitely not as bad as Christmas weekend. But still not fun. 

07735657-26CD-4790-A173-2B33146BD75E.jpeg

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Wow, it actually froze for some people on the east coast this morning. I wasn’t aware it was even supposed to be cold, we had a low of 52f here. 

That is odd.  I did notice on the way back from Vero Beach yesterday that the wind was blowing pretty strong until I got into the middle of Osceola county.  Wunderground has the airport bottoming out at 45F here.

image.png.d461ec322d6d941e917e0ce67027725b.png

 

For comparison with my neck of the woods, the SugarCane station:

image.png.6d67429023d1b9b271e604b854de1495.png

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PalmatierMeg

55.2F this morning. Currently 63.0F.

It's not the ultimate low that's beating everything up; it's night after night in the 40s/50s and cloudy days well under 70F since December 1. No relief in sight but training cold fronts on the horizon. I haven't run the sprinklers since late Dec. because the night temps are so low irrigation would do more harm than good. 

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JLM

We bottomed out at 28F lastnight, the forecasted low was 33F. Was not expecting that.

Edit: I guess i cant really complain, because the forecasted high for Thursday is 70F.

Edited by JLM

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Jimbean

43F here this morning.

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pj_orlando_z9b

Looks like 42F was the low in my backyard (south Orlando)  

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ruskinPalms

55F for a low on the neighbor’s personal weather station this morning but I’m starting to think that their station is reading a little high...oh well probably close enough. 

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JJPalmer

54.1 for the low here in St. Pete. The sensitive stuff around the area - especially the cocos - are starting to look a bit rough.

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JJPalmer

Monday night into Tuesday morning looks to be the last chilly spell for the coming week. Quite a sharp gradient between freezing and 40’s - could be an interesting one. 70’s to end the week is welcome. 

602561A8-5C16-42DE-9E67-D0E436C4712C.jpeg

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GottmitAlex
1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

Monday night into Tuesday morning looks to be the last chilly spell for the coming week. Quite a sharp gradient between freezing and 40’s - could be an interesting one. 70’s to end the week is welcome. 

602561A8-5C16-42DE-9E67-D0E436C4712C.jpeg

Just the opposite for us come Tuesday..

 

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NOT A TA
10 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

54.1 for the low here in St. Pete. The sensitive stuff around the area - especially the cocos - are starting to look a bit rough.

Pretty much all the coconuts start to look a bit beaten up this time of year even over here in cocoland.

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JJPalmer

Latest HRRR run and NWS prediction.  Pretty interesting how much colder the NWS is predicting temps to fall vs. models this evening.  HRRR is running colder than all the other models too.

 image.png.fa851777d1a0102e329b100dac59467c.png

image3.png

HRRR.1.19.JPG

Edited by JJPalmer
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kinzyjr
11 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Latest HRRR run and NWS prediction.  Pretty interesting how much colder the NWS is predicting temps to fall vs. models this evening.  HRRR is running colder than all the other models too.

 image.png.fa851777d1a0102e329b100dac59467c.png

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.  If the future forecast holds up, at least we should see some days in the 70s and 80s where some of this chill-sensitive stuff can catch a break.

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JJPalmer

Good explanation of why we haven’t seen record cold despite training cold fronts. 

F88E4572-271E-4086-A80B-0BE4A685265B.jpeg

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PalmatierMeg

That's overall good news for here, despite the past dreary, chilly days. I hope that warm air stays parked over Canada through Feb. We are getting a warmup here in Cape Coral much of this coming week, which will carry us to the last week in Jan. By early Feb. the window on a freeze event will be closing. Six more weeks to March 1.

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JJPalmer

Cooling off quick here in St. Pete - just broke into the 40’s.  No winds, low elevation, and clear skies. We’ll see how low we get. 

1DAB5703-04CB-4BBD-B76B-69BC0774906A.jpeg

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kinzyjr

Just had my first sensor go below 50F.  My range currently is 49F-52F.  The airport is reporting 49F.  I didn't think I would live long enough to see a night where St. Pete broke into the 40s before we did.  Looks like SugarCane has me by at least a degree:

image.png.3d0f4ab8e69585892c148e991eeaa3fc.png

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NickJames

As usual, I’m sitting in an icebox. :(

F3F34596-DFDA-4DEA-802F-5F3FD9371465.jpeg

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, NickJames said:

As usual, I’m sitting in an icebox. :(

If you need something to cheer you up, just be thankful you weren't at this location in 2010!  This was recorded with a Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus w/ Fan Aspirated Radiation Shield according to the station information.

image.png.9211de345bf6a11f31522ef28b6bae23.png

If this was 100% dead on, all I can say is, OUCH!

image.png.876091a81c955b31f12d40efdfa1c77c.png

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NickJames
22 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

If you need something to cheer you up, just be thankful you weren't at this location in 2010!  This was recorded with a Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus w/ Fan Aspirated Radiation Shield according to the station information.

image.png.9211de345bf6a11f31522ef28b6bae23.png

If this was 100% dead on, all I can say is, OUCH!

image.png.876091a81c955b31f12d40efdfa1c77c.png

Ugh. And look at the dew point of 8 that day lol! And humidity of 18%! Hate it!

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JLM

Minus the 30s tonight, the forecast is literally Janurary gold through Monday and probably beyond Monday.

frcst4.PNG

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NickJames

Ok, and I know there is some debate about infrared propane heaters being effective, but there’s no way it’s not - my coconut is warm to the touch right now much like it would be on a sunny day. Just lit the heater.

That’s not to say that the foliage itself isn’t feeling damaging cold, but I think this heater makes a difference on a radiational cooling night like this. 

Luckily I have my d. Lutescens, or my neighbors might get freaked out by a guy with very little on wandering around outside in 35 degrees with a lighter. :P 

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JJPalmer

Well, it’s official. I’m in quite possibly the coldest microclimate near DTSP.  On a night where the forecasted low was 50°F and Albert Whitted only hit 51°F, I recorded a low of 40.8°F and saw frost on my (and other’s in our neighborhood) roof.  Unbelievable. 

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NickJames

Frost observed on my roof and in front yard farthest from house. 

20C649A3-5705-449E-9AF3-BADF30F9C910.jpeg

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NickJames
32 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Well, it’s official. I’m in quite possibly the coldest microclimate near DTSP.  On a night where the forecasted low was 50°F and Albert Whitted only hit 51°F, I recorded a low of 40.8°F and saw frost on my (and other’s in our neighborhood) roof.  Unbelievable. 

D7A524BF-B1FC-4A3C-937A-130629005370.jpeg

596A589E-FF62-47E4-83D1-4943B8C7A7D4.jpeg

39923DCF-D691-40FD-BC14-D10854983896.jpeg

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F1A79A94-87A9-4D83-9D82-F5BD20ECC38B.jpeg

D17B6B5D-EB0C-42CB-BF50-9F0B883DFFC1.jpeg

That is quite a high dew point and temperature for frost, wow!

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JJPalmer
6 minutes ago, NickJames said:

That is quite a high dew point and temperature for frost, wow!

I was shocked.  My property's elevation is ~6.5ft above sea level, but I live a mile from the bay and a half a mile from any inlet so I miss out on the direct warming effect of the bay.  My theory is that on nights with radiational cooling, cold air tends to pool in our neighborhood.  I'd guess the air temperature warms dramatically with height here (there are 30+ foot cocos that survived 2010 only a block away), but at the surface it's quite chilly.  I also positioned my weather station roughly 7 feet above the ground in an area with no canopy, which probably contributes to giving me the coldest readings in the area. 

Still - I didn't expect frost at 40, but there's no denying what it was.

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RedRabbit
1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

Well, it’s official. I’m in quite possibly the coldest microclimate near DTSP.  On a night where the forecasted low was 50°F and Albert Whitted only hit 51°F, I recorded a low of 40.8°F and saw frost on my (and other’s in our neighborhood) roof.  Unbelievable. 

D7A524BF-B1FC-4A3C-937A-130629005370.jpeg

596A589E-FF62-47E4-83D1-4943B8C7A7D4.jpeg

39923DCF-D691-40FD-BC14-D10854983896.jpeg

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F1A79A94-87A9-4D83-9D82-F5BD20ECC38B.jpeg

D17B6B5D-EB0C-42CB-BF50-9F0B883DFFC1.jpeg

The station next to Kopsick recorded 40.5f as the low... Temperature measurement can vary a lot depending on a number of things so I wouldn’t worry about it if your station comes in below average for St. Pete. Given where you are I really think your climate is going to be supportive of all your palmy ambitions regardless of surprising temperature readings.

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JJPalmer
28 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

The station next to Kopsick recorded 40.5f as the low... Temperature measurement can vary a lot depending on a number of things so I wouldn’t worry about it if your station comes in below average for St. Pete. Given where you are I really think your climate is going to be supportive of all your palmy ambitions regardless of surprising temperature readings.

Oh for sure, there were definitely some low readings out there - I’m quite jealous of those about a mile to my East in Shore Acres though. 

Edited by JJPalmer
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Jimbean

43F here for a low this morning. 

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RedRabbit

Lows this morning:

Westchase - 38.8f

St. Pete - ~39f

Nokomis- ~44f

 

Kenwood was once again unimpressive. It’s a new property and I’m leaning towards not bothering to do much planting since it doesn’t appear to be zone 10. 

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JLM

Of course, we ended up with brief freezing temps lastnight here. Forecasted low of 35, ended up at 32. Within one hour we went from 32 at about 7am to 40 at about 8am, and we are now at 63!

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PalmatierMeg

Got down to 50.4F this morning. Was supposed to be 47F so not so bad. Forecasted low tonight: 51F

And we have sunshine for the 2nd day in a row.

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NickJames
4 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

The station next to Kopsick recorded 40.5f as the low... Temperature measurement can vary a lot depending on a number of things so I wouldn’t worry about it if your station comes in below average for St. Pete. Given where you are I really think your climate is going to be supportive of all your palmy ambitions regardless of surprising temperature readings.

This photo I took today definitely illustrates what elevation will do. The frost formed in only the low areas. Look how the slope of my lot has no frost on it. I can’t really think of another reason. 

B3B71982-D195-4ACC-9379-C3506A49EFC0.jpeg

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