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Matthew92

Florida Freeze Watch: Jan-Feb 2021

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Matthew92

This thread is to discuss potential Florida freezes during the heart of winter this January through February 2021.

At the moment, it is looking like the polar vortex over the north pole will be broken up and possibly swing farther south as guidance and computer models are showing this possibility around Mid January. Not trying to incite doom- just a trend to watch right now as much can still change. 

These are meteorologists I follow on Twitter who are knowledgeable on the subject.

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PalmatierMeg

And away we go! Slight cool-down along the Isabelle Canal starting today after a warm spell (80s/60s) leading up through the New Year weekend. Temps in the low- to mid-70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s through this coming weekend. Not bad for what statistically is the coldest week of winter (Jan. 4-11) here. After that, who knows? In 6 weeks the earlier sunrises will make a difference between a killing freeze and an annoying chill. A few years back we had a low of 37F in late Feb. that lasted perhaps 20 minutes.

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JLM

Euro - less than 7 days out. This image presents a bold statement for Alabama and possibly Florida.
Plenty of time to watch, but certainly a threat as this has been fairly consistant since Saturday. Take with a grain of salt.
GFS has been all over the place.

this2.PNG

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AnTonY

@JLM

That's not good at all...

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Sabal_Louisiana

In the past few years, there has been a resilient ridge between Bermuda and The Bahamas which has blunted the impact of cold air invasions into Florida. That feature must be gone right now because weather patterns lately have shown deep troughing able to penetrate the region. 

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kinzyjr

Not a freeze, but tomorrow night will be pretty chilly.  Another one of those "Nights Below 40F"

image.png.e7222745310ddd0430c32aed930746c0.png

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The7thLegend

I keep reading the Polar Vortex is getting ready to unleash it's fury which has me at the edge of my seat.  However the 10 day forecast putting us later January is mostly 60s/40s, basically December 2.0.   Cool and moderate, weird weather.  Missing those nice traditional winter warm ups to the upper 70s and even 80.

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RedRabbit

The worst I’m seeing in the forecast so far is 37f. 

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chinandega81

I read that they don't know what exactly will happen with the polar vortex. It should break up into pieces and the unlucky ones get the cold and others get warmth...and it seems like it's anyone's guess as to who gets luck or unluck this far out. It seems like Europe would get it first though from what I read.

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bubba

This is the long range forecast that predicted cold in Florida. It is in the lower 50s this morning but the ten-day forecast through January 18 is absolutely beneficent. This is the weather that south Floridian’s live for after getting burned up for most of the year. it is Florida’s California weather!

 

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Matthew92

Trends continue to show cold establishing in the Eastern US and possibly coming farther south, thanks to a displaced polar vortex. A pattern like this with a trough so low sets us up to have progressively deeper cold fronts make their way toward our state. Looking more like it will be late January at this time now. A lot can still change, including this not ending up as severe as it looks now, but still something to watch closely. From what I read with the meteorologists I follow, the details of these events are still being pinned down, so expect to see continued changes in the latter half of your 7-10 day forecast. If we get a real cold event, exact lows may be determined in the shorter term. Again, this most likely is late January.

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Original tweet: https://twitter.com/wxkassell/status/1347688682896171009

 

Edited by Matthew92
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Matthew92

Just saw this post by James Spann (Alabama Meteorologist). Good non-hype explanation of the polar vortex. The model run image shown is the Ensemble run of the GFS. The model run in my previous post was the operational model run from the GFS yesterday- notice the scenario is almost the same.

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Edited by Matthew92
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Matthew92

Buckle up Northwest FL- check out these temps now. I think it's going to be a lot colder than the 30 deg forecasted at my location. Going to put the heater on in my portable greenhouse.

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Edited by Matthew92

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JLM

Well thats not good at all...
My projected low is 29 tonight, hopefully it stays above 26!

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Estlander

Projected low for Destin tonight is 38F. We’ll see what my thermometers show in the morning. 

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NOT A TA

Pretty cool tonight even down here. I turned the heat on. Supposed to be mid-high 40's before sunrise.

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kinzyjr
46 minutes ago, NOT A TA said:

Pretty cool tonight even down here. I turned the heat on. Supposed to be mid-high 40's before sunrise.

Temperature at the airport is 45F.  All of my readings are between 47F and 50F right now.  Supposed to be around 37F-38F for a low.

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RedRabbit
40 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Temperature at the airport is 45F.  All of my readings are between 47F and 50F right now.  Supposed to be around 37F-38F for a low.

Is it cloudy over there? I’m still at 51f here, but we have heavy cloud cover. I see Orlando, Daytona, etc are quite a bit colder so I’m guessing it’s clear skies there.

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kinzyjr
Just now, RedRabbit said:

Is it cloudy over there? I’m still at 51f here, but we have heavy cloud cover. I see Orlando, Daytona, etc are quite a bit colder so I’m guessing it’s clear skies there.

Yes, some cloud cover blew in while I was outside a few hours ago and the temperature actually went up a few degrees after it came in.

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NickJames

Another really weird night.

I started to plummet before midnight and ultimately hit my overnight low technically yesterday....around 11pm. 35 degrees. 

Then, as it rolled into today, my temp climbed to slightly above 40. I think briefly went to 37 just before sunrise. 

C58BE34A-6999-4028-BA4C-A4B84E73CAF5.jpeg

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Estlander

35.4F low in my yard.

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kinzyjr

Lowest reading here was 40F.  Actually surprised in a good way for once, but I think the cloud cover kept the radiational cooling at bay.

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Matthew92

26 deg F here! Pretty used to it/typical at this point though.

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PalmatierMeg

44.8F low

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ruskinPalms

Was 43F here last night according to my neighbors personal weather station. My thermometer broke and I’m leaving it that way so I don’t get too focused on the temp lol. 

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pj_orlando_z9b

38.9F in Belle Isle. All 3 nights so far in the 30s have been 37F or higher. It's been chilly though. A little more browning of the lowest coconut fronds compared to previous winters. 

These long range models showing a potential vortex makes me think....does the West ever get them? Always seems like the East. Not that I wish cold on anyone but it just seems the west is always projected above normal. 

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NorCalKing
22 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

38.9F in Belle Isle. All 3 nights so far in the 30s have been 37F or higher. It's been chilly though. A little more browning of the lowest coconut fronds compared to previous winters. 

These long range models showing a potential vortex makes me think....does the West ever get them? Always seems like the East. Not that I wish cold on anyone but it just seems the west is always projected above normal. 

We get them. But they are far rarer. The big advantage is, our mountain ranges protect us from these intrusions most of the time. Helping to moderate the temps.

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Silas_Sancona
31 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

38.9F in Belle Isle. All 3 nights so far in the 30s have been 37F or higher. It's been chilly though. A little more browning of the lowest coconut fronds compared to previous winters. 

These long range models showing a potential vortex makes me think....does the West ever get them? Always seems like the East. Not that I wish cold on anyone but it just seems the west is always projected above normal. 

Yep, gets cold here too every once in awhile.. but, as norcal king pointed out, serious cold events have to plunge south/southwest.. west of the Rockies/ over the Great Basin to have any serious impact.  Most of the time, such events follow the path of least resistance, and dive south -east of the Rockies- where there is nothing to stop that air from moving south/ east.. If there is no higher pressure area hanging out over the south, to block/deflect.. or modify that air,  it bottoms out down there before moving east out over the Atlantic.  

Until the NAO moves into solidly positive territory, among other factors influencing the overall atmospheric circulation atm, warmth back east will remain muted/wavering rather than sustained.. Just how it goes sometimes..

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JLM

Low of about 27 lastnight. 2 degrees below the forecast so not too bad. I think clouds rolled in before the night was over that kept the temps from absolutely dropping off a cliff.

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chinandega81
5 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

38.9F in Belle Isle. All 3 nights so far in the 30s have been 37F or higher. It's been chilly though. A little more browning of the lowest coconut fronds compared to previous winters. 

These long range models showing a potential vortex makes me think....does the West ever get them? Always seems like the East. Not that I wish cold on anyone but it just seems the west is always projected above normal. 

It's called an inside slider out west. They are cold fronts that basically pull down continental airmasses and are starved of moisture. They can bring cold Santa Ana winds and leave more cold in their wake. Although less frequent for an artctic outbreak to hit the western US because of geography, it does happen. Coastal areas of San Diego Country were in the upper 20s as per the owner of Jungle Music Nursery a few times. The urban LA Basin gets frost every winter, with the mountains and concrete jungle everywhere. The cold even makes it out to the Channel Islands....so no where in the continental US is really free from the polar vortex, it just takes a different form. 


In the East, they go way south so it's newsbreaking and it affects a ton of people. For it to do the same into the Southwest, it crosses a lot of unpopulated mountainous areas that are expected to be cold so it isn't as newsbreaking.

Nonetheless, it does seems like the east is more prone to cold waves in winter and that translates to a heat bubble out west. I suppose it's just geography since it's easier for artic air too ooze south at low elevations without any impediments.

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RedRabbit

39.9f here this morning. Not too bad thanks to the clouds.

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SWFLchris

Woke up to 42f in Largo

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JLM

Seeing the videos of snow falling in Jackson, MS tonight is unreal!
My Forecast
Tonight: 38F (40% chance of Rain)
Tomorrow: 47F (90% chance of Rain)
Tomorrow Night: 37F (Cloudy)
Tuesday: 54F (Clouds decreasing during the day)
Tuesday Night: 35F (Partly Cloudy)
Wednesday: 57F (Mostly Sunny)
Wednesday Night: 35F (Mostly Clear)
Thursday: 62F (Sunny)
Thursday Night: 44F (Clear)

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Matthew92

From all the sources I follow: looks like the latest is that the big cold could make it into the Eastern US around Jan 16th to the end of the month, but at this moment not looking to extend very far south (showing only light freezing temps for North FL). Looks like Europe (look out UK) might get the brunt of the polar vortex cold air outbreak. Some meteorologists I follow are now saying the "real cold" for the US could come closer to or in February. Apparently the dynamics associated with the polar vortex displacement are making the computer models very much all over the place. Just have to watch and wait. 

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chinandega81
2 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

From all the sources I follow: looks like the latest is that the big cold could make it into the Eastern US around Jan 16th to the end of the month, but at this moment not looking to extend very far south (showing only light freezing temps for North FL). Looks like Europe (look out UK) might get the brunt of the polar vortex cold air outbreak. Some meteorologists I follow are now saying the "real cold" for the US could come closer to or in February. Apparently the dynamics associated with the polar vortex displacement are making the computer models very much all over the place. Just have to watch and wait. 

If we have to have a polar vortex the later the better. Hopefully it will be less potent and more modified by a higher sung angle and slightly longer days by then. And if it stays to the north even better.

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NorCalKing

This won't cause too much anxiety for Florida, but boy, this will cause some bone chilling temps to the mid-atlantic folks, should it verify. Sheesh! 

Screen Shot 2021-01-11 at 9.49.17 AM.png

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chad2468emr

Catching up on this thread.

I feel like after my 12 month hiatus from FL in NH, I might have accidentally coaxed Winter to follow me back to FL unintentionally when I (I'm not kidding) flipped it off and cursed at it as I started my drive down, saying good riddance.... sorry guys! This might be my doing. (I'm kidding... sort of...) 

Only saw 38 here south of Orlando on Saturday. Not too bad. Left everything outside but seedlings + the coconut and nothing seems to have batted an eye, but with that kind of subtle but still pretty chilly cold, long-term effects would be more apparent than immediate. 

There are some coconuts in Kissimmee planted in front of a mom and pop grocery store (Called Jason's or something I think) that were green as can be when I drove by the other day. Had me thinking I was losing my mind and being dramatic by taking mine inside so often. Then I drove past a nursery between Kissimmee and Davenport just a few miles from where I live and some 150 gal coconuts that they've had out there since summer were brown and yellow as can be.... to say I felt vindicated is an understatement! Not my coconut!

Fingers crossed this vortex isn't too nuts. What a year for me to load up on palms over the summer after moving back....sheesh. :wacko:

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NickJames

Lol the latest GFS shows snow along the coast in NE and Central Florida. 

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JLM
1 hour ago, NickJames said:

Lol the latest GFS shows snow along the coast in NE and Central Florida. 

That's okay, the GFS has been doin all kinds of goofy stuff the past 2 days. The 18z run from Wednesday had me getting snow lol

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PalmatierMeg

My assessment halfway through winter this year is that while I haven't set any record lows, our season has been cooler and cloudier than normal. Highs don't go above low 70s, usually the 60s; lows anywhere from mid-40s to low 50s (Jan. average is 55/75) and days go by where we see the sun little if at all. Fortunately, no rain except for the occasional daytime drizzle. I read last fall that La Nina can cause this. Just another 4-6 weeks of this, I hope. I'll be thrilled if we don't see any lows below 40F.

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