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New Climate Normals (1991-2020)

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JLM

New climate normals coming right after the new year. 

 

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Jimbean
22 hours ago, JLM said:

New climate normals coming right after the new year. 

 

 

Yeah I've thought about that too.  2010 will be our new "cold" year, and I'll be waiting for news articles showing their new projected USDA hardiness zone maps.

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JLM
30 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

 

Yeah I've thought about that too.  2010 will be our new "cold" year, and I'll be waiting for news articles showing their new projected USDA hardiness zone maps.

If they do what they did after the new normals came out in 2010, we should see a whole new map by 2022.

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oasis371

Being that more northerly climates (especially those in the Northeast, US and beyond into Canada), are showing the biggest rises in winter temperatures, won't those areas see the biggest changes in their respective gardening zone?  All the while, subarctic, record cold has still managed to plunge quite far south (especially in those polar vortex years).  (And surely, revised gardening zone maps must take changes in annual precipitation into account as well.) I'm asking here. 

P.S., NJ has just seen it second warmest year ever recorded.

Edited by oasis371
elaboration
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RedRabbit
2 hours ago, JLM said:

If they do what they did after the new normals came out in 2010, we should see a whole new map by 2022.

I’m skeptical of their ability to get it done in 2 years. Their SSL certificate expired over month ago and they haven’t bothered to fix it, even after I wrote in telling them about the problem. 

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JLM
3 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I’m skeptical of their ability to get it done in 2 years. Their SSL certificate expired over month ago and they haven’t bothered to fix it, even after I wrote in telling them about the problem. 

You're probably right. They may not even bother to make another honestly, and if they do it probably wont be out until the 2024-2028 time range.

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kinzyjr
4 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I’m skeptical of their ability to get it done in 2 years. Their SSL certificate expired over month ago and they haven’t bothered to fix it, even after I wrote in telling them about the problem. 

Truthfully, I think those of us on here could do it with NOAA data in relatively short order.  I have a database loaded with all of the NOAA data up to the middle of this year that I could share, but we'd need to do it elsewhere as the file size is ~600MB.

If we go purely off of the NOAA data from 1991-2020, I can provide these insights:

  • Bartow and Winter Haven: Welcome to Zone 10a.
  • Lakeland: Still a transition zone between 9b and 10a at the airport (KLAL).
  • Orlando area: All three airports (KSFB, KORL, KMCO) continue to put up zone 10a averages

image.png.4bf3dcaf10d48ba5a6673269e9953beb.png

A few caveats:

  • The highlighted areas for the Orlando area airports represent numbers that were filled in with KMCO data.
  • For Lakeland, there are three NOAA stations with temperature data, I used the lower of the two numbers for the stations with data during the selected time frame.
  • Bartow and Winter Haven data may have some holes.  I used the identifier for the Bartow Airbase (KBOW) for consistency and spacing, but this station is not at the airport according to its location data.
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RedRabbit
46 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Truthfully, I think those of us on here could do it with NOAA data in relatively short order.  I have a database loaded with all of the NOAA data up to the middle of this year that I could share, but we'd need to do it elsewhere as the file size is ~600MB.

If we go purely off of the NOAA data from 1991-2020, I can provide these insights:

  • Bartow and Winter Haven: Welcome to Zone 10a.
  • Lakeland: Still a transition zone between 9b and 10a at the airport (KLAL).
  • Orlando area: All three airports (KSFB, KORL, KMCO) continue to put up zone 10a averages

image.png.4bf3dcaf10d48ba5a6673269e9953beb.png

A few caveats:

  • The highlighted areas for the Orlando area airports represent numbers that were filled in with KMCO data.
  • For Lakeland, there are three NOAA stations with temperature data, I used the lower of the two numbers for the stations with data during the selected time frame.
  • Bartow and Winter Haven data may have some holes.  I used the identifier for the Bartow Airbase (KBOW) for consistency and spacing, but this station is not at the airport according to its location data.

Do you have GPS coordinates for the stations by chance? That could make creating a map easier. It probably wouldn’t be too hard to plot data on a map if we had that...

Any idea how to create a zone map though? I mean, it’s easy to calculate stats from each site but connecting them together into one zone map isn’t something I’d be able to do.

Edited by RedRabbit
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Chatta

You can do it with GIS 

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kinzyjr
7 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Do you have GPS coordinates for the stations by chance? That could make creating a map easier. It probably wouldn’t be too hard to plot data on a map if we had that...

Any idea how to create a zone map though? I mean, it’s easy to calculate stats from each site but connecting them together into one zone map isn’t something I’d be able to do.

Yes, the station location data (latitude and longitude) is included is the 202007121300_NOAA_WeatherStations_TemperatureOnly.xlsx file on my initial post here:

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/66320-florida-freeze-and-weather-station-data/

That spreadsheet is effectively a table dump from one of the tables in my database. 

The map would have to rely on data points and some inference for the wide swaths of the state that don't have recent temperature data.  According to the query I just ran, there are 163 NOAA stations with temperature data in the year 2020.  These can be separated into the TAG regions I assigned when I made the post above.  If one region was done at a time, it would limit the number of stations and data points to evaluate to a more manageable level.  For each region, this is the number of stations with 2020 data:

image.png.4f1c9e01166f022d0b7eeae517fcfcb6.png

After each region was "zoned", the region maps would basically get massaged together to form a zone map.  It will never be 100% accurate and I'm sure, given the discussions in other threads, that it would be difficult to reach a universal consensus on a particular map, but we can only work with the data we have.  As far as getting the colors and overlays to look right, @Jimbean , @ruskinPalms, @JJPalmer had some nice maps on various threads, including our Make your own zone map! thread.

You're right; it would take some effort and skill sets outside of just raw statistics.  @Chatta, brought up GIS.  That would be ideal if anyone is really good with that.

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JLM

I seem to be really good with paint.net
Probably wouldnt be hard to nail down the colors if i took a screenshot of the current map and used the same colors.
Although, other platforms would likely work far better than paint.net would.

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kinzyjr
5 minutes ago, JLM said:

I seem to be really good with paint.net
Probably wouldnt be hard to nail down the colors if i took a screenshot of the current map and used the same colors.
Although, other platforms would likely work far better than paint.net would.

Should you (or others) choose to pursue this endeavor, the attached sheet should give you all the data you need.

1991-2020_All_Stations.xlsx

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RedRabbit
1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Yes, the station location data (latitude and longitude) is included is the 202007121300_NOAA_WeatherStations_TemperatureOnly.xlsx file on my initial post here:

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/66320-florida-freeze-and-weather-station-data/

That spreadsheet is effectively a table dump from one of the tables in my database. 

The map would have to rely on data points and some inference for the wide swaths of the state that don't have recent temperature data.  According to the query I just ran, there are 163 NOAA stations with temperature data in the year 2020.  These can be separated into the TAG regions I assigned when I made the post above.  If one region was done at a time, it would limit the number of stations and data points to evaluate to a more manageable level.  For each region, this is the number of stations with 2020 data:

image.png.4f1c9e01166f022d0b7eeae517fcfcb6.png

After each region was "zoned", the region maps would basically get massaged together to form a zone map.  It will never be 100% accurate and I'm sure, given the discussions in other threads, that it would be difficult to reach a universal consensus on a particular map, but we can only work with the data we have.  As far as getting the colors and overlays to look right, @Jimbean , @ruskinPalms, @JJPalmer had some nice maps on various threads, including our Make your own zone map! thread.

You're right; it would take some effort and skill sets outside of just raw statistics.  @Chatta, brought up GIS.  That would be ideal if anyone is really good with that.

 

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Should you (or others) choose to pursue this endeavor, the attached sheet should give you all the data you need.

1991-2020_All_Stations.xlsx 211.17 kB · 1 download

Thanks @kinzyjr! I made a quick pivot table to show avg annual lows for each station.

1991-2020_All_Stations_Pivot.xlsx

So, if I were to take it from here I think there are two approaches...

1.) Create a map using something like this. I'm skeptical of how accurate it would be, but there could be some interesting insights too. We could visually factor in things like days <40f that might be enlightening. The problem here is that the software will have no idea that water moderates temperatures so the map is going to be pretty crude. You might be able to go a step further and use something like TensorFlow to learn what impact proximity to water has and adjust accordingly, but now we're talking about a huge project. 

2.) Just create a best guess of where the lines are using Photoshop. This must be the 80/20 way of making a map, and it would probably turn out pretty good since we have good first hand knowledge.  

 

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GottmitAlex
On 12/28/2020 at 5:49 PM, JLM said:

New climate normals coming right after the new year. 

 

Climate "normals" ..from where? yes, I gotta ask....

They deleted my emoji? I am not into this. ..

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GottmitAlex
On 12/28/2020 at 5:49 PM, JLM said:

New climate normals coming right after the new year. 

 

Viel Glück

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kinzyjr
12 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

 

Thanks @kinzyjr! I made a quick pivot table to show avg annual lows for each station.

1991-2020_All_Stations_Pivot.xlsx 295.77 kB · 2 downloads

So, if I were to take it from here I think there are two approaches...

1.) Create a map using something like this. I'm skeptical of how accurate it would be, but there could be some interesting insights too. We could visually factor in things like days <40f that might be enlightening. The problem here is that the software will have no idea that water moderates temperatures so the map is going to be pretty crude. You might be able to go a step further and use something like TensorFlow to learn what impact proximity to water has and adjust accordingly, but now we're talking about a huge project. 

2.) Just create a best guess of where the lines are using Photoshop. This must be the 80/20 way of making a map, and it would probably turn out pretty good since we have good first hand knowledge.  

 

There are some free GIS applications online (QGIS) if anyone is adept at using them or has an interest in learning.  This is one of them: https://qgis.org/en/site/

Up to this point we had all mostly been just using paint programs with transparent layers to mark the zones.  I ran a slightly different query to compile the results and give everyone interested a few metrics to judge the completeness of the records for each station.  For some of the stations that are close by, there is probably little harm in combining them where it is necessary to do so for a more complete data set.  This new list of 216 individual stations is attached.

202012301425_1991_2020_AverageLows_Zones.xlsx

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RedRabbit
7 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

There are some free GIS applications online (QGIS) if anyone is adept at using them or has an interest in learning.  This is one of them: https://qgis.org/en/site/

Up to this point we had all mostly been just using paint programs with transparent layers to mark the zones.  I ran a slightly different query to compile the results and give everyone interested a few metrics to judge the completeness of the records for each station.  For some of the stations that are close by, there is probably little harm in combining them where it is necessary to do so for a more complete data set.  This new list of 216 individual stations is attached.

202012301425_1991_2020_AverageLows_Zones.xlsx 33.25 kB · 3 downloads

I think it would be a fun project, I'm just super busy at the moment though so I'm not sure when I'll have time for it.

I came up with a great way to monetize a zone map website... We create a great zone map, put it up on a website, and accept donations. Donate $50 and we'll manually add a half zone to your garden in the map. $100 gets you a full zone. And we guarantee from that point forward your garden will actually stay warmer in the winter. How's that sound for a business plan? What do you say @kinzyjr, you in? 

Edited by RedRabbit
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kinzyjr
1 minute ago, RedRabbit said:

I think it would be a fun project, I'm just super busy at the moment though so I'm not sure when I'll have time for it.

I did come up with a great way to monetize a zone map website though... We create a great zone map, put it up on a website, and accept donations. Donate $50 and we'll manually add a half zone to your garden in the map. $100 gets you a full zone. And we guarantee your garden will actually stay warmer in the winter from that point forward. How's that sound for a business plan? What do you say @kinzyjr, you in? 

I'm in the same boat with you regarding work load.  My days of tangling with GIS systems are well in the rearview mirror

LOL, if $100 got everyone a full zone and it actually worked, we'd be overnight billionaires!  Might as well cut @Chatta @JJPalmer and @JLM in on the deal.  We'll need plenty of company at the "Bartow Hilton" (which would then be zone 11a) ;)

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JLM

Using your data that you provided @kinzyjr, i was able to produce a map. Obviously this is not anywhere near what it should be in terms of quality, but i feel like this is a good reference for a much better map. 
Florida Zone Map (1991-2020)

zone map.PNG

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JLM

Just went in and buffed out some mistakes.

zone map fixed.PNG

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RedRabbit
1 hour ago, JLM said:

Just went in and buffed out some mistakes.

zone map fixed.PNG

Nice job, how did you do that? 

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JLM
5 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Nice job, how did you do that? 

I used paint.net. I went into Excel after downloading the data, and added labels for almost all the 217 locations in the excel sheet, then went into another map just like this one and added the colors. To get the colors, i took a screenshot of the USDA Zone Key and picked out the colors from that. This took me about 3 hours to do, mainly because i had nothing else to do so i was focused on this lol
Going back and looking now, there are still some places that should be upgraded to the next zone that i completely forgot about while transferring over to the other map, but these are mainly coastal areas.

plots.PNG

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Chatta

I'm not the best at GIS but I know my way around it, I have access to it through UF atm.

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RedRabbit
7 hours ago, JLM said:

I used paint.net. I went into Excel after downloading the data, and added labels for almost all the 217 locations in the excel sheet, then went into another map just like this one and added the colors. To get the colors, i took a screenshot of the USDA Zone Key and picked out the colors from that. This took me about 3 hours to do, mainly because i had nothing else to do so i was focused on this lol
Going back and looking now, there are still some places that should be upgraded to the next zone that i completely forgot about while transferring over to the other map, but these are mainly coastal areas.

plots.PNG

Wow, thanks for spending the time on that. It came out really good, I definitely couldn't have produced that in just 3 hours.

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Chatta

i did this in photoshop based on your data, tho i'm lil doubtful of the 10b in eastern hillsborough county/western polk. I left that blank for now. I did not show the keys yet. I can make a better detailed map with some critique on where these boundaries are. vs where i assumed them to be... This map is slightly reminiscent of a 1960s USDA Zone Map of Florida
plots.PNG.f05fd64604024f491c865e0cb95d2a3de.jpg.3b3fee0da4a4cdf7738533b19693523a.jpg

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JLM
1 minute ago, Chatta said:

i did this in photoshop based on your data, tho i'm lil doubtful of the 10b in eastern hillsborough county/western polk. I left that blank for now. I did not show the keys yet. I can make a better detailed map with some critique on where these boundaries are. vs where i assumed them to be... This map is slightly reminiscent of a 1960s USDA Zone Map of Florida
plots.PNG.f05fd64604024f491c865e0cb95d2a3de.jpg.3b3fee0da4a4cdf7738533b19693523a.jpg

Great map! Although, Pensacola is not in Zone 9b. Possibly the island of Gulf Breeze or over into Destin might be, but Pensacola itself is a solid 9a. It might be hard to see on the map of the plots, but Pensacola is in 9a with the barrier island in 9b according to the data.

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chinandega81

Thanks for the maps.

For SE FL, the 11a is only along the immediate coast (east of I-95) from southern Palm Beach County to downtown Miami and then it extends inland to the Miami Internation Airport and SW suburban Miami area in a small bubble and then goes back to the coast....no 11a extension in Dade County south of Kendall for sure. Homestead/Redlands are 10a/b...even right on the coast in that far south part of the county.

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Chatta

heres the map im referring to 1960 USDA Zone Map 

Thanks for the critiques i'll wait for more to come in and make an updated map higher rez, and suggestions on colors would be awesome :) 

1960usdzfl.png

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kinzyjr

@JLM @RedRabbit @Chatta I think I can merge a few data sets for ~20 locations and actually make this slightly more accurate.  I'll post both the raw data in spreadsheet form and a link to the Google Map with new layering when I can find some time to finish doing the queries etc.  This will eliminate that 10b area on County Line Rd, which was due to some old "KLAL" data being cordoned off on its own for only about 3 years worth of info.  One issue is overlap of certain data sets, which skew some of the other statistics.  Another issue is junk data in each of the TAG regions.  I've ID'ed most of these and mitigated these from entering into the new calculations.  Stay tuned...

Nice work on the maps @JLM and @Chatta!  I do think they are relatively accurate and will increase in accuracy if I can feed you better data.

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kinzyjr

The new spreadsheet is attached.  Not sure this will substantially alter the map, but the locations that were very close to or were identical to each other are merged in this set.  There are now 211 locations rather than the 217.

202012312345_ZoneMap_1991-2020.xlsx

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floridaPalmMan

@JLM bro! 

This is amazing work.

I know how hard it us to obtain GIS unless youre a diehard or a biologist but either way I thank you for your knowledge and ability.

If Im really 9a, a new world has just opened up!!

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kinzyjr
6 minutes ago, floridaPalmMan said:

@JLM bro! 

This is amazing work.

I know how hard it us to obtain GIS unless youre a diehard or a biologist but either way I thank you for your knowledge and ability.

If Im really 9a, a new world has just opened up!!

Looks like you are in luck.  Even your 100-year zone is 9a according to the NOAA station in your area.

image.png.7d999e6c2e89cbafee757652368fd9aa.png

 

@JLM @Chatta @RedRabbit @Jimbean @palmsOrl

I've added several layers to the Google Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1QCS-fTHGPmghnQJ7Q1phu7gSXSD6Rtxq&usp=sharing

My personal opinion has always been that more data yields more predictable results.  There are now layers to show the following:

  1. The information I posted in the spreadsheet to build a new 30-year zone map for 1991-2020
  2. The climate information for all records and all stations (1871-2020)
  3. A 30-year zone map using 1990-2019
  4. A 50-year zone map using 1970-2019
  5. A 70-year zone map using 1950-2019
  6. A 100-year zone map using 1920-2019

image.png.6ce6bd074b170a7ba4743ab58920c75d.png

The map is best viewed with 1 layer on at a time.  It is really neat to see how zone assignments change in some of the maps.  You can see an example of a station record above in my comment to floridaPalmMan.  It includes the record low for that time period, and the Note area will tell you if I merged stations together for that particular node.  Feel free to post questions/comments/etc.

 

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Jimbean

Well since I'm working from home now, I'll see about getting on this and making maps.  The problem of course is always lack of data.

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Jimbean

Every tutorial that demonstrates highlighted overlays over google maps involves writing code.  I will just take a big map of Florida and do it via ms paint.

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Jimbean

This map is based on the last 30 years.  Take this with a grain of sand.

floride10.gif

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chinandega81
1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

This map is based on the last 30 years.  Take this with a grain of sand.

floride10.gif

I like it. I think you did pretty well considering there are so many variables you took into account. I think these maps are the most valueable when people can zoom in and see roads and cities to find their exact location...but I understand why they don't usually include that specific info so people don't take the bounderies as gospel. Thank you!!

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bubba

USDA Zones are a waste. Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification explains "what grows"...

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Jimbean
1 hour ago, bubba said:

USDA Zones are a waste. Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification explains "what grows"...

I halfway agree with that

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Jimbean
4 hours ago, Jimbean said:

This map is based on the last 30 years.  Take this with a grain of sand.

floride10.gif

I've noticed that this looks a lot like the 1990 map, but with one zone up.

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