Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
greysrigging

The Northern Australian Monsoon 2020 - 2021.

Recommended Posts

greysrigging
The severe weather advice has been extended West tonight and now includes Katherine and Timber Creek.
The advice details all the issues but if you are in these areas please take care.
Nice and quiet in the Darwin area now after a fairly wild afternoon.
Enjoy the few hours of “dry” weather as further showers are heading north from the southern Daly region.
Maybe a bit like early this morning with a squally line of showers sneaking in during the early hours.|
As it turned out I measured 80mm in the gauge this morning. 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

I've recorded 940mm ( 37"  ) since the 1st of January.
 

Ok, another obscure stat I've just pondered.....how often has the Darwin Airport exceeded 1000mm in the first two months of a calendar year ( so Jan and Feb ) ?
So the mean ( av ) is 801.5mm and the median is 777.0mm. In 80 years of records, this has happened 20 times, so on 20 occasions, come the end of Feb, people have been saying, "Jeez, she's been a bloody good 'wet' so far.....
Here's the years and totals.....
1962 - 1035.8mm
1967 - 1075.8mm
1968 - 1221.0mm
1969 - 1188.6mm
1974 - 1116.9mm
1980 - 1055.4mm
1981 - 1120.0mm
1984 - 1004.8mm
1991 - 1500.4mm
1995 - 1189.4mm
1997 - 1074.0mm
1998 - 1186.4mm
2000 - 1108.6mm
2003 - 1193.4mm
2004 - 1011.2mm
2008 - 1185.2mm
2010 - 1059.0mm
2011 - 1737.4mm
2017 - 1095.4mm
2018 - 1257.2mm
2021 - 814 8mm to 9/2.....would expect to say, "Jeez, its been a bloody good wet....."
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

Gotta love the old 'monsoonal break' periods in Darwin.... she's pretty ordinary outdoors along the Top End coasts atm !

 

149900552_3603252533134638_4054966171073579309_n.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tyrone

The northern monsoon is trying to get down here. A tropical disturbance up near Karratha is funnelling in tropical moisture down the west coast and into the Great Southern. We've got thunderstorms in the SW corner of the state today and have had for a few days. Northam just inland from Perth had flash flooding. Lastnight the RH never dropped below 90% and the min was 18.7C which doesn't sound warm compared to the tropics but it was equal to the warmest night we had all summer. I'm expecting a light show this arvo when the lot comes down heading for the south coast and off into the Antarctic oblivion to the south.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AnTonY

Is the monsoon only confined to Northern Australia like Darwin and Cairns? Or does it also extend farther south to places like Brisbane, Coff's Harbour, Sydney, etc?

 

Edited by AnTonY

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

Mostly confined north of the Tropic of Capricorn, although some years monsoonal influenced troughs come down from the north to the southern states

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

A graph of heat extremes at Alice Springs Airport since 1942| ( from one of our local FB weather sites )
For those interested in our changing climate in the NT, here’s a plot of annual very hot days at Alice Springs Airport 1942-2020 (BOM data). If current trends continue we can expect to crack a record 70 days ≥40°C by 2030 and maybe even 100 days by 2050. Hard to imagine this won’t have all sorts of impacts on our lifestyle and unique plants and animals.
158906128_3567916269997054_6610953849704348006_o.jpg.705f0a8f5410baee52a651e4c3675b8e.jpg
I had a bit of a look for Darwin using 35c ( 95f ) as the 'hot' days
 

I have had a similar look at +35c days at Darwin Airport since 1942. My tech nouse precludes me from making a graph, but here are the raw figures by the decade
!941 - 1949 = 54 +35c days. ( some incomplete data )
1950 - 1959 = 81 +35c days
1960 - 1969 = 78 +35c days
1970 - 1979 = 111 +35c days
1980 - 1980 = 82 +35c days
1990 - 1999 = 95 +35c days
2000 - 2009 = 190 +35c days
2010 - 2019 = 223 +35c days
And there were 42 +35c days in 2020......
Raw data.... no adjustments, no fiddling the books whatever that means....( sigh )
To my untrained eye, there is a trend in the Alice and Darwin.


 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

Another stat.....despite being a very good 'Wet' this season, we are going through a lean patch atm re rainfall...
I posted these states on our local weather FB page....
 

"OK, as most of youse know, I can drag up little known weather record snippits pertaining mostly to the Airport Site ( records back to 1941 or thereabouts.
So the Airport and Northern Suburbs are going through a bit of a lean spell this first 10 days ( well, 9 days, but 10 is a nice round figure that suits my OCD )
Providing no rain falls in the Airport and Leanyer gauges before 9.00am tomorrow morning.....
Airport - 6.6mm
Leanyer - 5.0mm
This will be the driest first 10 days of March since records began at the Airport in 1941 and at Leanyer since records began in 1990.
Notes/- Airport had 221.2mm first 10 days March 2020....sigh !
Garden sprinklers have had the cobwebs well and truely blown out allready this month, with my home gauge totalling 4.7mm since the 26/2 !"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tropicbreeze

Not happy about this. The monsoon break seems to be turning into a monsoon end. Can't say it's over until the end of April, but all the same, doesn't look good. I could end up below average annual rainfall.:(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging
2 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

Not happy about this. The monsoon break seems to be turning into a monsoon end. Can't say it's over until the end of April, but all the same, doesn't look good. I could end up below average annual rainfall.:(

We started off with a bang and seem to be going out with a whimper...
Airport 'Wet' to date..... 1542.4mm ( 1st Oct - 12th March )
Leanyer 'Wet' to date.....1729.2mm ( 1st Oct - 12th March )
Some Palmerston and Howard Springs areas have had 2500mm up to date !

Edited by greysrigging
spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tropicbreeze

In its weekly tropical climate note BOM made the following comment:

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above average rainfall across northern Australia in the second part of March and in April, to end the northern wet season.

So I haven't actually given up hope of above average rain. Just hope the cyclones keep away.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

Kakadu National Park from the air....stunning pics by Kakadu Air !

 

160193857_3629730843822943_39051849273187467_o.jpg

160486509_3629730847156276_6848639939402201632_o.jpg

160574709_3629730850489609_6858637681616956183_o.jpg

160894274_3629730840489610_8936337011635870584_o.jpg

161865970_10224884931532505_2997054331539381156_o.jpg

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tropicbreeze

I've done a lot of flights over that country, mainly by chopper but also several fixed-wing. The some of the coastal areas are quite spectacular as well.

The first image looks familiar but can't quite place it. The next two are Twin Falls. The fourth is Namarrgon Djadjam (Lightning Dreaming). The last is Barrk Malam (Jim Jim Falls).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

164510927_10158987914206271_8841174090752642634_o.thumb.jpg.d53ec1662c3cddff3258aac545b9514e.jpg 
Incoming as I type....

Edited by greysrigging

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

Well, the storm died in the arse, but it looked spectacular !
 

162521815_458835598790853_759193975989020482_o.jpg

163446760_10157743760590880_917604858836966545_o.jpg

163318400_10157743760695880_8060470663647114496_o.jpg

163776952_10157743760515880_4011501107473312266_o.jpg

164017311_10157382859451065_5399391105912458882_o.jpg

164812353_10159220359618390_8963649332978217764_o.jpg

164833849_10159914202077908_157140798889852182_o.jpg

164982537_10157743760625880_5575671226914674945_o.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Australia is simply a unique and incredibly beautiful land! You Aussies are extremely lucky!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

Monsoon To Return
( source: Weatherzone )

The likely last monsoon trough for the season should move over far northern Australia late this week, bringing widespread rain and storms and an increased chance of tropical cyclones.

It's hardly been dry over many tropical areas in recent weeks, most notably the Kimberley and northeast Queensland around Cairns, but this stormy rain has been caused by weather patterns other than the monsoon.

For the Kimberley, it was a long-lasting low pressure trough that extended all the way to NSW at times; parts of the Kimberley saw totals between mid-March and last weekend to rival those of eastern NSW over the same period. For Queensland, it has been persistent onshore winds, driving moisture up and over the Tablelands, that forms cloud that then drops rain.

While storms and rain can and do develop during monsoon 'break periods', an 'active period', like expected this week, is characterised by deep northwesterly winds over a wide area that drag moisture southwards from the equator. This moisture is then deposited as widespread rain.
FDmY9UR.jpg
The proximity of the monsoon trough's circulating winds and enhanced instability also hugely increases the chance of tropical cyclone development.

A monsoon trough is expected to be near the northern Australian coast from Friday or Saturday this week and the most likely area to be affected by this particular monsoon period is the Top End of the Northern Territory. Indications of a tropical Cyclone near the Top End over the Easter weekend are increasing.

Some areas of the Top End are likely to pick up three figure rainfall totals to cap off a wet season that already ranks in the wettest 10% of all recorded seasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
greysrigging

The last coupla nights.
 

164347364_3658019337659177_476996271236502766_n.jpg

165775835_10165093271805471_1245729418218688765_n.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tropicbreeze

My March total is 83% of average, and the wet season is running at 116% of average. Regardless of how much extra rain (or not) we get up to the end of the wet, it will be at least an average year. But there has been a dramatic increase in Darwin's water supply this season, getting back close to normal.

storage.jpg.74fa8ce6987ee49ff6998957da0f5f37.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tyrone

2 tropical circulations in the Indian Ocean off the NW coast of WA at the moment. One a declared cyclone and the other not quite. According to the ewmcf they will eventually join up and come across the wa coast near Geraldton in about a week BUT of course it’s way too early to say that will happen with any certainty yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tyrone

Well both tropical disturbances did form. One was TC Seroja which caused massive flooding and landslides in Timor Leste the other was a short lived TC called Odette. Both brought tropical moisture a long way south and TC Seroja crossed the west coast at Kalbarri and destroyed 70% of the town with 170kmh winds.

In the last couple of days I got 52mm of rain down here. We’ve already exceeded our April average of 74mm and we were ahead for the year at the beginning of April. That may be the last monsoonal influence for us this far south this year I reckon. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
UK_Palms
3 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Well both tropical disturbances did form. One was TC Seroja which caused massive flooding and landslides in Timor Leste the other was a short lived TC called Odette. Both brought tropical moisture a long way south and TC Seroja crossed the west coast at Kalbarri and destroyed 70% of the town with 170kmh winds.

In the last couple of days I got 52mm of rain down here. We’ve already exceeded our April average of 74mm and we were ahead for the year at the beginning of April. That may be the last monsoonal influence for us this far south this year I reckon. 

I have fond memories of Kalbarri, camping on the beach and travelling inland along the Murchison river to fish and see the rock formations. It's one of my favourite places in WA. This is the first news I have heard about them getting a direct hit by a cyclone. My family in Perth haven't said anything about the storm and it's sad to hear of the destruction. 70% of buildings destroyed is terrible. How did Geraldton fair? Did they manage to escape it? Both places are windy as hell at the best of times, so no wonder the wind speed went up to 170kmh. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tyrone
3 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I have fond memories of Kalbarri, camping on the beach and travelling inland along the Murchison river to fish and see the rock formations. It's one of my favourite places in WA. This is the first news I have heard about them getting a direct hit by a cyclone. My family in Perth haven't said anything about the storm and it's sad to hear of the destruction. 70% of buildings destroyed is terrible. How did Geraldton fair? Did they manage to escape it? Both places are windy as hell at the best of times, so no wonder the wind speed went up to 170kmh. 

Kalbarri was the worst hit and as far as I know it will take a while to get power back on. They also have no phone coverage or internet, no TV etc. They are pretty much isolated. Northampton (inland from the coast) also copped it real bad and they were the last to come off red alert although I haven't seen much on the news about it. Kalbarri got the highest wind gusts but didn't get the eye which was still just out to sea. Port Gregory to the south likely got the eye of the storm, but again there is no information. Geraldton did get damaged a bit but their peak wind gusts were close to 120kmh not 170kmh. According to those who took shelter in their boats (yes in their boats) in Kalbarri tell how at first it looked like they were riding it out well, then within the space of 20 minutes the storm surge rose around 5m and all hell broke loose. Probably because once the tide rose the swell could come full throttle over the reef and into the estuary. A couple of boats ended up physically on the wharf, with one guy reportedly waiting for another wave to drive the boat off the wharf again. Another guy ended up on the wharf but ended with a big hole in the boat. Not a nice Sunday evening at all.

None of the houses in Kalbarri are built to a cyclone code. The same for surrounding towns such as Geraldton. I believe Denham further north is built to cyclone code and the caravan park has chain blocks to hold caravans down when the cyclones hit there. I reckon any new buildings from Kalbarri to probably Lancelin may require cyclone coding after this. Lancelin just north of Perth was in the red alert zone with this one.

The Carnarvon one mile jetty got pretty much obliterated by the cyclone as well. It was closed to the public in 2017 being considered unsafe and requiring 45 million dollars worth of repairs, but now it will need $450 million dollars worth of repairs. I doubt it will be rebuilt now.

I read somewhere online that the BOM couldn't find a cyclone crossing the coast as far south as Kalbarri before. However I had a look at their website going back to the 1960's and the coastline even down near me has had near misses and land falls from cyclones in the past. It's just we haven't seen too many in the last 30 or 40 years so people become complacent and think cyclones don't ever come south of Exmouth or Onslow when they actually do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...