Florida Freeze Watch - December 2020

[Jimbean 704]

42F low this morning at my location

This capture was at 7:15 this morning. 

[Jimbean 704]

36F tomorrow morning, and then 47F Sunday morning according to the NWS

[NickJames 1,382]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

It didn't flip flop, but they added a few degrees to the overnight tonight and subtracted a few from Sunday.  The forecast was for 41F, so depending on what source you use for data, they nailed it as far as the airport goes.  I lucked out and had 44F on this one.  I recorded a high of 85F here yesterday.  That would be a record if it was official.  I'm sure that helped mitigate the temperature drop a little.

That’s exactly what I’m seeing in unofficial sources as well - added a few tonight, subtracted a few Saturday night. 
 

NWS has a freeze warning for coastal and Inland volusia (I am on the dividing line) and says to expect 29. 
 

Headed back to Jacksonville for a bit to see my mom (will take pics of her palms ha ha including her foolish foxtails) then will be back this afternoon before sundown to start covering stuff. 

[ruskinPalms 746]

Forecast is for 36 here tonight. If the wind dies down it will be colder. As a side note, everyone is always fixated on lows at night... it is 39F in downtown Orlando right now and 51F here looking at weather underground stations at the time of this post. Just an interesting observation as we all discuss growing zones. 
 

Edited December 25, 2020 by ruskinPalms

[kinzyjr 4,763]

19 minutes ago, ruskinPalms said:

Forecast is for 36 here tonight. If the wind dies down it will be colder. As a side note, everyone is always fixated on lows at night... it is 39F in downtown Orlando right now and 51F here looking at weather underground stations at the time of this post. Just an interesting observation as we all discuss growing zones. 
 

I just looked at Weather Underground and saw this KORL reporting 42F and KMCO reporting 41F.  KLAL is reporting 44F at this point with most of the area within a few degrees, but all of my readings are around 50F.  Might have to put a new weather station on the shopping list.

[NickJames 1,382]

My weather station appears to be intermittently malfunctioning of course on the coldest night of the season. It appears to be dropping out on occasion. 
 

But here is right now

[Jimbean 704]

34 minutes ago, ruskinPalms said:

Forecast is for 36 here tonight. If the wind dies down it will be colder. As a side note, everyone is always fixated on lows at night... it is 39F in downtown Orlando right now and 51F here looking at weather underground stations at the time of this post. Just an interesting observation as we all discuss growing zones. 
 

yup

 

46F right now here at 10:17AM

It's that NW wind that keeping it lower on the east coast. 

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Jimbean

[kinzyjr 4,763]

Still have multiple thermometers pegged at 50F here. 

Wunderground from my neck of the woods at 10:55AM:

Wunderground at 11:25AM:

[Merlyn 1,749]

The forecast for last night was 39 here at the Sanford airport.  It was 35 here, just NW of the urban heat island.  The forecast is for 33 tonight, so maybe it'll hit 29 or 30 here tonight.

[RedRabbit 1,833]

It was 45 here this morning, with a forecast of 33f tonight and 32f tomorrow. I did some minimal preparation just in case it’s worse than that. 

[ruskinPalms 746]

My latest NWS forecast is 37F for tonight and tomorrow night. We will see what happens. 

[NickJames 1,382]

Weather station back online after a battery change. 
 

Some palms covered. 
 

Buckling in for a long night. 

[ruskinPalms 746]

Hanging onto 50F right now with a northwest wind still. Not a cloud in the sky. If the wind dies the temp will plummet here... 

Good luck Nick! Your protection looks good!

[kinzyjr 4,763]

Sitting still at 46F right now, but it is dead still.  No wind at all.

[ruskinPalms 746]

I would protect a few things too in my yard but I just don’t have the time for the most part and my neighbor’s sprinkler system is literally running 4 feet away from my coconut tree at this very moment so what’s the point anyway lol. 

[Oviedo_z10b_lol 197]

Good luck central florida. Especially you, @NickJames  

[NickJames 1,382]

Wind really died here as you can see on my reading. I was having a really tough time putting out the coverings but got way easier toward the end. The dypsis lutescens coverings were a pain. Bought the world’s largest heavy duty tarps haha

[JJPalmer 483]

Figured I would post one final round of models prior to tomorrow morning.  All the models are still looking pretty chilly but the really low numbers (upper 20's for Central Florida) aren't appearing anymore.  NWS Tampa Bay is still showing Chiefland at 24 and Brooksville at 27.  Wonder what's making the professionals drop their forecasts a couple degrees...

[NickJames 1,382]

Just now, JJPalmer said:

Figured I would post one final round of models prior to tomorrow morning.  All the models are still looking pretty chilly but the really low numbers (upper 20's for Central Florida) aren't appearing anymore.  NWS Tampa Bay is still showing Chiefland at 24 and Brooksville at 27.  Wonder what's making the professionals drop their forecasts a couple degrees...

Forecasting Knowledge of the local area. It’s the same way on here we might be able to make predictions for our own yards based in elevation, wind blocks, etc. 

[Estlander 541]

36.3F last night. Low for tonight as per different sources 33-35F Currently 38.3F, dead still and clear sky. 

[JJPalmer 483]

Skew T showing some impressively dry, cool,  northerly-wind driven air above the surface despite calm winds at the surface.   For reference, temperature decreases diagonally from top left to bottom right.  The horizontal bars show pressure (altitude).  Red line represents the temperature green represents the dew point. 

Assuming this has a lot to do with a lower forecast temperature than what models indicate.

 

[ruskinPalms 746]

Winds have shifted to the northeast here. Not a bad thing really as it gives Atlantic influence but if they stop blowing watch out...too clear and dry here. 

[ruskinPalms 746]

My worst freezes over the years have been radiational so I worry when the wind dies...

[NickJames 1,382]

7 minutes ago, ruskinPalms said:

My worst freezes over the years have been radiational so I worry when the wind dies...

Same here, at least in the 1.5 years I’ve been here in this house. I have that issue since I’m in the state forest practically and there’s no artificial heat sources to my north and west. Very efficient radiational cooling here. Hoping that changes once more homes are built. 

[ruskinPalms 746]

Nick, I’m definitely in the same situation. Very rural here but suburbanizing quickly. I do have Tampa/st Pete and tampa bay to the north and northwest of me but when the wind stops it does not matter one bit; the temp drops like a rock...

[ruskinPalms 746]

You really need to live within half a mile of the ocean/bay/multi thousand acre lake to get any true benefit on a radiational night. These little retention ponds and smaller lakes in these Florida communities cause more harm than good as they pump out steam on cold radiational nights that subsequently freezes to plant tissue in your yard if you live on one. I know, been there done that.

[ruskinPalms 746]

Better to be high and dry unless you can afford to live on the ocean or a bay or a multi thousand acre lake. 

[chinandega81 277]

Already in the mid to upper 40s in suburban Miami with no wind. NWS calls fro a north wind to pick up after midnight?? We are essentially at our forecast low at 9PM and still have 10 more hours of potential chill time. I don't see what will stop the temperatures to continue to fall other than perhaps mixing from the light cold north land breeze after midnight...

[NickJames 1,382]

3 minutes ago, ruskinPalms said:

Better to be high and dry unless you can afford to live on the ocean or a bay or a multi thousand acre lake. 

Of course I’m on a storm water retention pond that’s not big enough - LOL. However I’m on the north side of it so generally on a bad night the steam drifts away from me if I’m lucky. 

[NickJames 1,382]

Perfect example of what I’m talking about @ruskinPalms  check out my next closest weather stations. They are all running 3 degrees warmer. They’re not *actually* in some warmer sweet spot...they’re just located on streets fully built out (I’ve gone to see them in person) and therefore are boxed in my multiple homes etc. My weather station is on my pond side (facing tiger bay state forest) which gives me GREAT frictionless wind readings during onshore wind events (tropical storms etc) but results in more of a rural temperature reading. 
 

The remaining lots on my culdesac are sold so hope is on the horizon...just need to get through this winter!

[JJPalmer 483]

49.2°F here in St. Pete. We’ll see how low we get.

[NOT A TA 1,254]

Dead calm here in Delray Beach and temps already down to 46 which was predicted low before dawn tomorrow when I looked on the weather channel this morning. I'm exactly 2 miles from beach and usually get a warming breeze off the ocean, not tonight.

Edit: I don't have a thermometer here so I may not be at 46, just going by what The Weather Channel says which may report from Palm Beach airport which is always cooler in winter than my house.

 

Edit 2: Weather underground says its 44 and tonight's low predicted to be 44, I'll bet it goes lower.

[NickJames 1,382]

It must have fallen below 38 under my bottle palm wrap (and this time I learned my lesson and did not put directly on palm) as the heating cable is now activated. 

[NOT A TA 1,254]

@NickJames I hope all your efforts work out, your yard looked so nice!

[kinzyjr 4,763]

There is some light cloud cover coming through my area at this point.  It has helped stall the radiational cooling a bit.

[RedRabbit 1,833]

53 minutes ago, NickJames said:

Perfect example of what I’m talking about @ruskinPalms  check out my next closest weather stations. They are all running 3 degrees warmer. They’re not *actually* in some warmer sweet spot...they’re just located on streets fully built out (I’ve gone to see them in person) and therefore are boxed in my multiple homes etc. My weather station is on my pond side (facing tiger bay state forest) which gives me GREAT frictionless wind readings during onshore wind events (tropical storms etc) but results in more of a rural temperature reading. 
 

The remaining lots on my culdesac are sold so hope is on the horizon...just need to get through this winter!

I see you at 37f now. I’m getting a little nervous for you, you could lose 10f or more before sunrise.   

[NickJames 1,382]

13 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I see you at 37f now. I’m getting a little nervous for you, you could lose 10f or more before sunrise.   

Yeah. I’m picking apart my cuticles here in bed. I’m waiting until the very last second to go out and kick on the propane heater on the coconut. I want to make sure it lasts the night. This will be its last use before refill needed or else I would kick on now. 

[kinzyjr 4,763]

8 minutes ago, NickJames said:

Yeah. I’m picking apart my cuticles here in bed. I’m waiting until the very last second to go out and kick on the propane heater on the coconut. I want to make sure it lasts the night. This will be its last use before refill needed or else I would kick on now. 

I couldn't make it out in the picture, but did you tie the fronds up before you wrapped/covered it?

[JLM 907]

Hard Freeze Warning in effect here, temp is about 29F. Forecasted low is 24, i fear it could go lower. Freezing temps started about an hour ago, and im still expected to have atleast 10-12 more freezing hours.

Update 10:25pm CST: NWS Mobile forecast discussion notes that temps could drop to around 20-22F in my area. Scary night ahead for a lot of us.

Edited December 26, 2020 by JLM

[NickJames 1,382]

22 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I couldn't make it out in the picture, but did you tie the fronds up before you wrapped/covered it?

Not the outermost ones. I’m not so much worried about that, particularly on a fast growing palm. The radiant heat from the propane heater helps them out a bit though since they’re hanging low.