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RedRabbit

Florida Freeze Watch - December 2020

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RedRabbit

This thread is to discuss the possibility of a Florida freeze in the month of December 2020.

Mike’s Weather Page posted the below graph on Facebook earlier today of forecast low temperatures for December 26th:

408D377D-96DD-4C1E-B915-F1185C4B149B.thumb.jpeg.13e654fc8c1f3dccb58189f54576bbff.jpeg

If this plays out, much of central and north Florida will see their first freeze this winter. Forecast accuracy 9 days out is notoriously poor so at this juncture it’s just something to keep an eye on. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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JLM

I dont like that 24, hope it changes drastically in the right direction!

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The7thLegend

This December has been too damn cold!

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NickJames

This has trended better. 
 

this is from the latest run of that GFS model which is running as I type. 
 

The front comes earlier on 12/24 result in the morning of 12/25 being the coldest. 
 

This results in a marginal event, with temps likely staying above freezing.

Fingers crossed, but I’m doing a dress rehearsal tomorrow for a “big freeze” type palm prep. 

B621EA36-57E1-4DF6-A0B6-00641F059097.jpeg

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PalmatierMeg

Around 12/25 I'm seeing predicted lows of ~45F, typical of the Dec. cold fronts we've been having. The 2nd week of Jan is traditionally the nadir for winter temps - Jan. 10 the low for winter cold. That's when the danger of freezing temps is at its worst. The coldest night I ever experienced in my 27 years in Cape Coral was Jan. 10-11, 2010 - 28.5F.

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NickJames
14 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Around 12/25 I'm seeing predicted lows of ~45F, typical of the Dec. cold fronts we've been having. The 2nd week of Jan is traditionally the nadir for winter temps - Jan. 10 the low for winter cold. That's when the danger of freezing temps is at its worst. The coldest night I ever experienced in my 27 years in Cape Coral was Jan. 10-11, 2010 - 28.5F.

How awful (28.5 in Cape C). 
 

I remember that month in Jacksonville. Friendship Fountain downtown had ice in it. I think I posted a photo here before. Some people had their P. Roebellinis under tarps for weeks on end like my friend @shminbabe

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chinandega81
19 hours ago, NickJames said:

This has trended better. 
 

this is from the latest run of that GFS model which is running as I type. 
 

The front comes earlier on 12/24 result in the morning of 12/25 being the coldest. 
 

This results in a marginal event, with temps likely staying above freezing.

Fingers crossed, but I’m doing a dress rehearsal tomorrow for a “big freeze” type palm prep. 

B621EA36-57E1-4DF6-A0B6-00641F059097.jpeg

How is the forecast trending today? Please tell me in the right direction. 

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chinandega81
7 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Around 12/25 I'm seeing predicted lows of ~45F, typical of the Dec. cold fronts we've been having. The 2nd week of Jan is traditionally the nadir for winter temps - Jan. 10 the low for winter cold. That's when the danger of freezing temps is at its worst. The coldest night I ever experienced in my 27 years in Cape Coral was Jan. 10-11, 2010 - 28.5F.

If mid 40s is a typical December post frontal low...what is the "typical" post frontal low in January? I'm hoping not too much colder. 

I remember a meteorologist on TV saying years ago in Miami that the period for most cold potential was mid January through mid February...so we still have about 2 full months of a lot of potential cold. 

I just saw a reaffirmation of the above average temps for this winter...still waiting for that to pan out.

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NickJames

Here’s an interesting question. What effect does being post-Solstice have on palms?

the shortest day of the season will be Monday in Florida and then we will begin to get more and more sunlight hours. 

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The7thLegend
1 hour ago, NickJames said:

Here’s an interesting question. What effect does being post-Solstice have on palms?

the shortest day of the season will be Monday in Florida and then we will begin to get more and more sunlight hours. 

 

With more daylight and a quicker warm up wouldn't hard freezes potentially get less frequent and damaging within a reasonable amount of time from Solstice?

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PalmatierMeg

I find here in SWFL there is a lag time between the winter solstice and the advent of rising avg temps. Average temps in January are approx. 75/55F and reach those winter lows after the solstice. By the end of Jan. averages slowly start to rise. The 2nd week in Jan. is when chances for record freeze events peak.

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Silas_Sancona
18 hours ago, The7thLegend said:

 

With more daylight and a quicker warm up wouldn't hard freezes potentially get less frequent and damaging within a reasonable amount of time from Solstice?

You'd think this might be the case, but.. much like in summer ( except here in the dust bowl perhaps, lol ) there is a lag time between when the solstice occurs and the hottest "part" of the summer sets in.. Would imagine it works in reverse ( in most places ) in the winter.. ie: the coldest potential weather falls after the winter solstice.

Looking at  the monthly forecast over on Accuweather, Phoenix reaches both the lowest low and lowest high yearly average right on the winter solstice and starts a slow  re-bound afterwards, ..through Jan/Feb.  but, we can still experience pretty nasty frost/freeze events up until roughly the last week in Feb, 1st 10 days or so in March.. pretty uncommon that late in the season of course w/ the most "dangerous", if you wanted to call it that, period occurring right about now thru say the second week in Jan. for damaging cold..  but goes to show how other factors can override that general upward trend /longer daylight hours factor as you head out of winter..

Generally, As far as how things are effected by increasing daylight -after- the Winter Solstice, most of the evergreen/ non- dormant, "tropical" stuff here will continue growing all winter, even when it is cooler ..though much slower. The exception are native, spring flowering annuals/ perennials.. other " cool season growers " which steadily grow thru winter.. until about the end of Jan. then bolt as they gear up to flower/set seed before/ or as more consistent heat creeps in..  Somewhere in between, say in late Feb. early March, i'll start seeing growth pick up on some things i have that start their growing season a touch earlier than others.. By the end of March/ start of April, almost everything is putting on growth pretty quickly.  The earlier 4-7 day stretches of 75F+ deg heat occur, the faster this cycle is sped up.

In Florida, i noticed almost the same general cycle though occurring a week to 10 or so days earlier..

An interesting side note:  Saw this and thought i'd share it here.. 
 

 

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kinzyjr

With the trend in the forecast, it looks likely we'll see a freeze around Christmas

image.png.97fcff370745918209a5d7ad1fce2966.png

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Estlander
4 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

With the trend in the forecast, it looks likely we'll see a freeze around Christmas

image.png.97fcff370745918209a5d7ad1fce2966.png

Interesting that you’re predicted to fall so much lower down there than me up here during the Christmas cold spell. 
We’ll see how it actually plays out,  as they’ve been a little off with their predictions this December. 

78081340-3341-4B49-8705-D97ABF46F844.jpeg

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RedRabbit

The forecast low is down to 34f here from 40f 2 days ago. Definitely trending in the wrong direction right now.

For the record, I won’t complain about anything in the 30s. I just don’t want a hard freeze like the one in 2010.

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Bill H2DB

And here is my personal calendar from the Worst January of all !!

12210674524_db8e76e092_c.jpgJanuary 1985 1 copy copy by Bill H, on Flickr

I am a very skinny , old guy .   and I am miserable in cold weather .     I hate Winter !!!

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JJPalmer

Posted this comment on the winter thread, but geographically, it may make more sense here. 

Some distinct differences between the GFS, GFSv16 and the Euro.  The GFSv16 did the best job at projecting the latest winter snowfall location and amounts with the Nor'easter.  Will be interesting to see what the convective allowing models say in a few days.  Euro has been pretty good with temps this year...

Euro.12.26.JPG

GFS.12.26.JPG

GFS16z.12.26.JPG

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NickJames

With the exception of GFSv16, these result in probably a marginal freeze for me in Mosaic (Daytona Beach) based on how my microclimate behaves. 
 

however, 3 homes have been framed on my street just this week alone so I’m hoping my microclimate will start to get a little bump soon from the additional heat sources. 

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JLM
10 hours ago, Estlander said:

Interesting that you’re predicted to fall so much lower down there than me up here during the Christmas cold spell. 
We’ll see how it actually plays out,  as they’ve been a little off with their predictions this December. 

78081340-3341-4B49-8705-D97ABF46F844.jpeg

I would recommend you use the local WEAR Weather app for your forecasts. The forecasts on TWC app is all done by computer models, while the local apps are done by people. You could do that, or you could do what i do and use the NWS. To get a NWS forecast just put in your zip code and it will pull up a forecast strictly for your area, also with current observations from your nearest station.

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Estlander
33 minutes ago, JLM said:

I would recommend you use the local WEAR Weather app for your forecasts. The forecasts on TWC app is all done by computer models, while the local apps are done by people. You could do that, or you could do what i do and use the NWS. To get a NWS forecast just put in your zip code and it will pull up a forecast strictly for your area, also with current observations from your nearest station.

Yes, different sites give different figures. Not sure who to trust the most. 

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NickJames
1 hour ago, Estlander said:

Yes, different sites give different figures. Not sure who to trust the most. 

Best bet is to make your own observations for your own microclimate if you’re worried about cold-sensitive palms. 

For example, the official observation for Daytona Beach will run warmer than me even though I’m in the Daytona Beach city limits. The western side of my neighborhood, which I live on, is buffered by the Tiger Bay State Forest. There is no development until you reach DeLand. 

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RedRabbit

32f is now forecast for my zip code. That’s okay, but let’s not go any lower. haha

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Jimbean

I'm looking at 37F for a low and 54F for a high here in Melbourne.

 

I just saw NWS has me at 40F

Edited by Jimbean
update
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kinzyjr

Looks like 32-34F in my neck of the woods.  Some of the new stuff might need a little protection since it's probable we'll have more of these events this winter.

image.png.e562fc76ed9b6fc5358243a37eb511ae.png

 

image.thumb.png.49b28a94e1c41fd8c5393ae62b468ace.png

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Estlander
8 hours ago, JLM said:

I would recommend you use the local WEAR Weather app for your forecasts. The forecasts on TWC app is all done by computer models, while the local apps are done by people. You could do that, or you could do what i do and use the NWS. To get a NWS forecast just put in your zip code and it will pull up a forecast strictly for your area, also with current observations from your nearest station.

WEAR Weather puts me at 38F Thursday night and at 35F Friday night. NWS at 37F Thu and 35F Fri night. 

ED9B772F-BE3F-48CC-9063-579FC4138790.jpeg

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JLM
2 hours ago, Estlander said:

WEAR Weather puts me at 38F Thursday night and at 35F Friday night. NWS at 37F Thu and 35F Fri night. 

ED9B772F-BE3F-48CC-9063-579FC4138790.jpeg

Quite the agreement there between WEAR and the NWS. My forecasted low for Friday night is 28, but based on how the forecasts have been here lately, probably in the 25-27 range. Wind chill factor is the problem. With temps in the upper 20s and winds at about 5-10 mph, that makes a wind chill in the low 20s. For a low of 33 (NWS updated the forecast) and a wind of probably (just guessing) about 15 mph, that gives you a wind chill of 22F. My winds will be more calm, but my wind chill will be about the same as yours due to the fact that my temps will be lower. Do you plan to wrap any palms? Im watching the forecast, might have to wrap the queens if that forecasted wind chill gets any lower.
The only wrapping ive done so far this year is lights and and towels around the bud, and just lights on the "trunk". Might have to do a full wrap this time, we shall see.

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Estlander
1 hour ago, JLM said:

Do you plan to wrap any palms? Im watching the forecast, might have to wrap the queens if that forecasted wind chill gets any lower.
The only wrapping ive done so far this year is lights and and towels around the bud, and just lights on the "trunk". Might have to do a full wrap this time, we shall see.

Not planning on protecting anything. I’ve already experienced 33F once this December with windchill into 20’s something. Everything still looks good. Haven’t even taken my potted Foxtail in yet. 
My understanding is that plants don’t feel windchill the way humans do as they don’t produce any heat. Although it does probably help a bit if you provide them some protection from windchill. 
Back in January 2018 when my yard dropped to 23, the windchill was in the upper teens somewhere. Not a spot on my Queen. 
 

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JJPalmer

Updated models: Euro trending cooler, GFS and GFSv16 staying relatively warm. 

Euro.12.26.2.JPG

GFS.12.26.2.JPG

GFSv16.12.26.2.JPG

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Jimbean

NSW now has Melbourne down to 39F and weather underground at 35F

Edited by Jimbean
grammar
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JLM

 

11 hours ago, Estlander said:

Not planning on protecting anything. I’ve already experienced 33F once this December with windchill into 20’s something. Everything still looks good. Haven’t even taken my potted Foxtail in yet. 
My understanding is that plants don’t feel windchill the way humans do as they don’t produce any heat. Although it does probably help a bit if you provide them some protection from windchill. 
Back in January 2018 when my yard dropped to 23, the windchill was in the upper teens somewhere. Not a spot on my Queen. 
 

Good to know! I might leave them completely unwrapped just to test. If anything happens, they are 14.98 at Lowes for a 2.25 gallon lol

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JLM

I basically took all the NWS forecast info for my location and made my own graphic. New forecasted low of 25 Friday night, was forecasted to be 28. This could mean the actual temp could be in the 23-27 range. Not looking good at all.
(P.S: I added the "Flurry or two?" to Thursday, as it appears possible the atmosphere could favor a few flurries here. Likely not, but possible.)

frcst2.PNG

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Allen

Someone explain to me why some of these models show TN where I'm at roughly the same temps as FL or some parts of TN warmer than FL on a couple of these maps farther up??

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JLM
38 minutes ago, Allen said:

Someone explain to me why some of these models show TN where I'm at roughly the same temps as FL or some parts of TN warmer than FL on a couple of these maps farther up??

I wouldnt focus on the models at this point. NWS Nashville has your lows set at 16 for Thursday night and 18 for Friday night.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-86.38618469238283&lat=35.85121343450061#.X-KiHthKjIU

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JJPalmer

NWS Tampa latest forecast graphic: 

56F5E23F-CFAC-4FA3-AB48-80354A4AFD41.jpeg

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JJPalmer

Also, first model run of the NAM now available. Euro and NAM most directly align with current NWS forecasts.

sfct.us_se.png

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NickJames
5 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

Also, first model run of the NAM now available. Euro and NAM most directly align with current NWS forecasts.

sfct.us_se.png

Not the worst...for me at least. Based on that, I probably hit 34 in my microclimate. 

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RedRabbit

I’m seeing 32f in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday morning now. 

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kinzyjr
35 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I’m seeing 32f in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday morning now. 

There are few times I would take the NWS forecast numbers over the Weather.com forecast numbers, but this is one such occurrence:

image.png.84df89c35a4b9ea2780d9cc43dfa05cf.png

 

image.thumb.png.c41d51fe1fcad5d569b6c52c5823685e.png

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