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climate change making me sad but happy

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climate change virginia

is it just me or do any people who live in colder climates hate climate change but like it at the same time. I mean I hate how its killing polar bears but I like mild winters I live in zone 7b and last winter was a zone 9a winter and most of my winters are zone 8a and every other winter is a zone 8b winter. I would like to hear your thoughts on this.

Edited by climate change virginia

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chinandega81

I have to admit, warmer winters are definantly a plus. Obviously the effects are much more beyond this but I will take any winter warming I can get. Bring on zone 12 to mainland US!

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Silas_Sancona

If there's one thing we don't need, at least here, it is for summers to get any hotter, lol. Winters are pretty nice as- is though, but wouldn't hurt to add a few extra degrees.. Crazy how close we are to more stable relatively warm winter areas.. say solid zone 10B / 11A..  just south of the border in coastal central Sonora.

What would be nice? if a shift in things brought wetter summers, in fact, i'd trade 90% of any winter precip, most years, if most of it ( if not more ) would fall -with regularity- in the late June- October time frame across AZ, ..and CA, roughly from Sacramento south -including to the coast- for that matter..

Climate change or not, one things for sure, I will keep crossing my fingers every year to witness a legitimate, strong tropical storm/ Hurricane ( or 2 ) come ashore somewhere in San Diego, or L.A. until i die, lol.

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climate change virginia
13 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

If there's one thing we don't need, at least here, it is for summers to get any hotter, lol. Winters are pretty nice as- is though, but wouldn't hurt to add a few extra degrees.. Crazy how close we are to more stable relatively warm winter areas.. say solid zone 10B / 11A..  just south of the border in coastal central Sonora.

What would be nice? if a shift in things brought wetter summers, in fact, i'd trade 90% of any winter precip, most years, if most of it ( if not more ) would fall -with regularity- in the late June- October time frame across AZ, ..and CA, roughly from Sacramento south -including to the coast- for that matter..

Climate change or not, one things for sure, I will keep crossing my fingers every year to witness a legitimate, strong tropical storm/ Hurricane ( or 2 ) come ashore somewhere in San Diego, or L.A. until i die, lol.

warming summers are also a problem that is a great point if global temps rose by 2-3 degrees I would be a soild zone 8a but we would have 101f days more often and more hurricanes. no body likes hurricanes.

Edited by climate change virginia

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Silas_Sancona
4 hours ago, climate change virginia said:

warming summers are also a problem that is a great point if global temps rose by 2-3 degrees I would be a soild zone 8a but we would have 101f days more often and more hurricanes. no body likes hurricanes.

If winters here in the low elevation areas of AZ / S. Cal reach a point where 8 out of 10 winters saw Dec.-Feb. highs in the 70s- occasional low 80s, like the past few days here this week, and lows don't drop below 44 ~give or take a degree or two~ 98% of each winter period, that would be great, though the compromise would have to be slightly cooler summers, mainly due to more rain / clouds / consistently higher humidity. Winter "ideal" may come to pass as things warm, summer ideal scenario may not.. Might see longer stretches where it is drier actually.

AS far as hurricanes, Don't build a house out of sticks, live near the Beach ( should be off limits to structural development anyway, imo ) / a river/ floodplain and most won't be a big deal.. Same w/ protecting one's self from Fires out here ( starting w/ not building a home w/ sticks, any/other highly flammable materials < should be outlawed > ).. Most tropical systems that have managed to effect this side of the country mainly bring rain, sometimes quite a bit ( Phoenix 2014 / Tucson 1983?.. if i recall correctly ).. Wind- events associated w/ them are much rarer, but have occurred.

 

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chinandega81

I always fantasize...what if the Pacific current off the SW US Coast reversed and it brought warm tropical water all the way up to the PNW. Cali would become like Florida. I would think AZ would be much more moist as well as much of the SW US. 

 

I also would like to see a more pronounced and robust monsoon in AZ---I don't know if that's in the cards though with climate change. Hopefully. 

I get the feeling winters will warm and turn drier...and summers will have more varietion between decent monsoons and next to nothing.  

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

If winters here in the low elevation areas of AZ / S. Cal reach a point where 8 out of 10 winters saw Dec.-Feb. highs in the 70s- occasional low 80s, like the past few days here this week, and lows don't drop below 44 ~give or take a degree or two~ 98% of each winter period, that would be great, though the compromise would have to be slightly cooler summers, mainly due to more rain / clouds / consistently higher humidity. Winter "ideal" may come to pass as things warm, summer ideal scenario may not.. Might see longer stretches where it is drier actually.

AS far as hurricanes, Don't build a house out of sticks, live near the Beach ( should be off limits to structural development anyway, imo ) / a river/ floodplain and most won't be a big deal.. Same w/ protecting one's self from Fires out here ( starting w/ not building a home w/ sticks, any/other highly flammable materials < should be outlawed > ).. Most tropical systems that have managed to effect this side of the country mainly bring rain, sometimes quite a bit ( Phoenix 2014 / Tucson 1983?.. if i recall correctly ).. Wind- events associated w/ them are much rarer, but have occurred.

 

 

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Silas_Sancona
16 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

I always fantasize...what if the Pacific current off the SW US Coast reversed and it brought warm tropical water all the way up to the PNW. Cali would become like Florida. I would think AZ would be much more moist as well as much of the SW US. 

 

I also would like to see a more pronounced and robust monsoon in AZ---I don't know if that's in the cards though with climate change. Hopefully. 

I get the feeling winters will warm and turn drier...and summers will have more varietion between decent monsoons and next to nothing.  

 

There's been some talk regarding evidence the CA. Current, and it's associated cooling effect to the Pacific offshore,  S. Cal/ Baja esp.  may be slowing / weakening, allowing warmer water from south of Cabo to get pulled north more often over time. Can see some -potential- effects of gradual warming in some of the fish/other seas critters that keep turning up/ expanding new territory in/around... other stuff rapidly dying off or retreating north around S. Cal, even in non- El Nino Years. 

On a side note, have thought about how a 30 mile wide peninsula that attaches at Point Reyes, is roughly 50-100 miles offshore, extending down past Cabo, the gap between being less than 200ft deep would effect California's climate, lol..

As far as the Monsoon, Yep, that's going to be the big "  ..have to wait and see what happens " pattern under future regional climate change.. Is already tough to predict, even in a good year, and lots of conflicting data being sorted through on whether or not the core of the Monsoonal circulation will shift a few clicks north in Mexico or get suppressed over the Southwest, & exert more influence east of the region, say over West Texas... Ims, i'd think it would expand north, as the High Pressure area that helps get it cranking expands over more of the Western U.S. in the Summer/ early Fall, but only time will tell.

Temperature profile in a warmer Pacific may influence this -either way- as well in the future, even if that warmer Pacific ups the chances for more Tropical Storm/ Hurricane - related moisture influence here.

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chinandega81
7 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

There's been some talk regarding evidence the CA. Current, and it's associated cooling effect to the Pacific offshore,  S. Cal/ Baja esp.  may be slowing / weakening, allowing warmer water from south of Cabo to get pulled north more often over time. Can see some -potential- effects of gradual warming in some of the fish/other seas critters that keep turning up/ expanding new territory in/around... other stuff rapidly dying off or retreating north around S. Cal, even in non- El Nino Years. 

On a side note, have thought about how a 30 mile wide peninsula that attaches at Point Reyes, is roughly 50-100 miles offshore, extending down past Cabo, the gap between being less than 200ft deep would effect California's climate, lol..

As far as the Monsoon, Yep, that's going to be the big "  ..have to wait and see what happens " pattern under future regional climate change.. Is already tough to predict, even in a good year, and lots of conflicting data being sorted through on whether or not the core of the Monsoonal circulation will shift a few clicks north in Mexico or get suppressed over the Southwest, & exert more influence east of the region, say over West Texas... Ims, i'd think it would expand north, as the High Pressure area that helps get it cranking expands over more of the Western U.S. in the Summer/ early Fall, but only time will tell.

Temperature profile in a warmer Pacific may influence this -either way- as well in the future, even if that warmer Pacific ups the chances for more Tropical Storm/ Hurricane - related moisture influence here.

Phx may become more like Tucson rain-wise...if the monsoon expands. I think a rainier AZ would help the state grow even more, whether that is a good or bad thing. 

 

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Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

Phx may become more like Tucson rain-wise...if the monsoon expands. I think a rainier AZ would help the state grow even more, whether that is a good or bad thing. 

 

If Phoenix could bump up to 12-15" of rain each year, esp. during summer, that would definitely be a positive. State population growth is already explosive, and likely to continue.. Is kind of concerning considering the current water situation though. More rain, if consistent more years than not, would help for sure, even if Winter Snow pack #'s takes a bigger hit.

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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

*** There's been some talk regarding evidence the CA. Current, and it's associated cooling effect to the Pacific offshore,  S. Cal/ Baja esp.  may be slowing / weakening,  allowing warmer water from south of Cabo to get pulled north more often over time. Can see some -potential- effects of gradual warming in some of the fish/other seas critters that keep turning up/ expanding new territory in/around... other stuff rapidly dying off or retreating north around S. Cal, even in non- El Nino Years. 


*** Temperature profile in a warmer Pacific may influence this -either way- as well in the future, even if that warmer Pacific ups the chances for more Tropical Storm/ Hurricane - related moisture influence here.

*** Interesting tweet regarding current November SST's in the Nor. Pac.:



*** Related article, published back in September:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/column-sharks-moving-north-redwood-growth-slowing-mosquitoes-biting-—-this-is-californias-altered-state/ar-BB19d13p?li=BBnbfcL

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DCA_Palm_Fan
3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

*** Interesting tweet regarding current November SST's in the Nor. Pac.:



*** Related article, published back in September:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/column-sharks-moving-north-redwood-growth-slowing-mosquitoes-biting-—-this-is-californias-altered-state/ar-BB19d13p?li=BBnbfcL

I did see that, and that article as well.  It is all fascinating science, and shows just how interconnected and nuanced our environments, and climates are.  It also illustrates just how big of an impact even somewhat small changes in it, can and does have across a broad spectrum of things around us that most of us would never really notice nor think about.  At this point the debate should not even be weather or not climate change is real / exists, rather, it should be how much damage is it going to do, and just how far do we as a species have to go to make a real attempt at at least slowing it down to manageable levels to the point that we are at least able to keep up with it.   

 

To answer the OP's question, yes, it is a love / hate relationship for those of us that want to live in milder climes.  On the one hand we want to be able to grow more and have more time that is enjoyable being outdoors doing the things we love.  On the other hand we don't want all of the negative impacts that we can see (sunny day flooding, more and stronger hurricanes / storms, more fires, more extremes in both directions, more floods. etc)   I think looking at just those things is very short sighted though, and attempts to paint an extremely complex and intricate picture, which a very broad brush, anyone can see if they read the linked article above.   On the whole, climate change is a net negative thing, that  is existentially bad for us, and for  most other forms of life that inhabit this planet.  As the article points out, the kelp, the sea stars, the sea otters, monarch butterflies, redwood trees, etc, are all now living this existential crisis, and are singing an alarming chorus out to the rest of us.  The problem is, how much of this, and how much damage is it going to take for us to collectively listen and take action to stop it? 

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Silas_Sancona
12 minutes ago, DCA_Palm_Fan said:

I did see that, and that article as well.  It is all fascinating science, and shows just how interconnected and nuanced our environments, and climates are.  It also illustrates just how big of an impact even somewhat small changes in it, can and does have across a broad spectrum of things around us that most of us would never really notice nor think about.  At this point the debate should not even be weather or not climate change is real / exists, rather, it should be how much damage is it going to do, and just how far do we as a species have to go to make a real attempt at at least slowing it down to manageable levels to the point that we are at least able to keep up with it.   

 

To answer the OP's question, yes, it is a love / hate relationship for those of us that want to live in milder climes.  On the one hand we want to be able to grow more and have more time that is enjoyable being outdoors doing the things we love.  On the other hand we don't want all of the negative impacts that we can see (sunny day flooding, more and stronger hurricanes / storms, more fires, more extremes in both directions, more floods. etc)   I think looking at just those things is very short sighted though, and attempts to paint an extremely complex and intricate picture, which a very broad brush, as we one can see if they read the linked article above.   On the whole, climate change is a net negative thing, that  is existentially bad for us, and for  most other forms of life that inhabit this planet.

The emboldened statement is about as perfect a point as can be made when discussing the subject.. It brings up  ~often viewed as complicated~ views on just  what could be done ..and there is plenty, that could be done to lessen the negative aspects that accompany those we see as agreeable. 

To those who shrug indifferently on the topic/ seek to avoid it, Yes climate changes, but when you speed everything up so fast that the slower things can't catch up, that is bad, for everything..

I'll tell ya, lol, if i would have been a builder, all the homes i built would be nice, but simple, sit on quarter to 1 acre lots, and be built with advanced materials ( think Hempcrete/ Greenstar Blox/ Shipping Containers, etc ) that could withstand -anything- thrown at them.. and be powered by solar, or at least utilize 85-90% of their electrical demand from it, etc environmentally compatible infrastructure.. Would think that would be more attractive than elaborate looking, but rather vulnerable, stick built homes, on lots barely big enough to anything on.. Perhaps, after the dust has settled, post- COVID, a desire for more space, already gaining renewed interest, will gain even more favorability.

  When i lived in Ohio, while, from the outside, the Apartment complex i lived in looked quite sturdy and up-scale, discovered that not much was separating me from the outside after a good windstorm..  Can't imagine how it would fare during a Tornado. At the other end, pretty sure my Apartment in Largo was solid concrete. Rarely needed to use my AC in the Summer.  Anyway, 

Obviously, part of the challenge toward pursuing climate mitigating goals is political, and to change that, have to change who is elected/ not elect anyone who balks at what needs to be done, Can already see the gears starting to turn, at least to some degree, in the more environmentally aware/responsible direction in the years ahead.. While not old, i'm often impressed at how much many more people younger than myself think with a " How does what i do effect the world " kind of thought..  By the same token, when those who create laws refuse to do much, it is up to those who aren't afraid of change, or thinking outside the box to act.. responsibly of course.. but with enough determination to get things progressing forward.

On a more personal end, we can avoid doing stuff like over fertilizing our gardens, taking the time to do the detailed homework in regards to what everything we grow needs,  donate extra plants, or simply grow some to donate to our neighborhood/ local parks, schools, businesses, without any possible cash reward for doing so.. I say it often and i'll say it again, " It is about the plants. Not being able to buy a big house/ boat/, etc off them "

Support and purchase plants from places ( and people ) with a strong environmentally aware lean.. Stay away from the others, as much as possible.. Get involved with plant societies, Community tree planting groups/ Community/ future Botanical garden/park projects,  Adopt a street island/ other, often ignored public space, or petition X local officials until given the right to do so, etc.. 

...And that of course is just scratching the surface..

Humans aren't inept, we just choose to act as such so often..

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climate change virginia
On 12/9/2020 at 5:16 PM, chinandega81 said:

I always fantasize...what if the Pacific current off the SW US Coast reversed and it brought warm tropical water all the way up to the PNW. Cali would become like Florida. I would think AZ would be much more moist as well as much of the SW US. 

 

I also would like to see a more pronounced and robust monsoon in AZ---I don't know if that's in the cards though with climate change. Hopefully. 

I get the feeling winters will warm and turn drier...and summers will have more varietion between decent monsoons and next to nothing.  

 

I wish Virginia got a equatorial jet stream I have been wishing about that for months.

Edited by climate change virginia

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AnTonY

@Silas_Sancona

It's insane how dry Arizona was this past summer, in what was supposed to be their "monsoon" season. It's probably the amplifying tendency of the jet stream in the US, which shapes the position of ridges/troughs such as to reinforce the "wet East, dry West" bias. 

With an elongated, flat pattern, the gradients would be more north-south. That is, summers would be (relatively) wetter across the board in the country the farther south you go (until you reach the cooling stability of the open Pacific). You'd see more reliable rainfall in Arizona, as well as neighboring Sonora along their coast. There would also be lots more summer rainfall across Texas, especially points around and south of I-10. Florida would preserve their rainfall peak as well, but places in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic would dry out a bit.

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Silas_Sancona
4 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

@Silas_Sancona

It's insane how dry Arizona was this past summer, in what was supposed to be their "monsoon" season. It's probably the amplifying tendency of the jet stream in the US, which shapes the position of ridges/troughs such as to reinforce the "wet East, dry West" bias. 

With an elongated, flat pattern, the gradients would be more north-south. That is, summers would be (relatively) wetter across the board in the country the farther south you go (until you reach the cooling stability of the open Pacific). You'd see more reliable rainfall in Arizona, as well as neighboring Sonora along their coast. There would also be lots more summer rainfall across Texas, especially points around and south of I-10. Florida would preserve their rainfall peak as well, but places in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic would dry out a bit.

Part of the problem for the last two Monsoon seasons, has been that the position of the high itself... deciding to sit either directly overhead, or be displaced just south enough that it blocks any/most moisture moving north out of Sonora which itself has been very dry both years.. The ideal, for the best rainfall opportunities both here and further south, is for the ridge to sit either over the 4-corners ( traditional position ) or, center up over N. Nevada, Utah, & Colorado ..placing most of AZ/ NM. and all of Sonora under it on the " wetter " side. 

A constant, rather flat west to east flow overhead also stops northward moisture flow, giving us that southwesterly dry ..but not quite as sizzling hot pattern as compared to when the ridge sits right above Phoenix or Tucson. 

Post, wet-winter El Nino summers are typically skewed dry as it is and both last year and this past summer were sitting right about neutral, so a drier year, overall, was already suggested. Obviously, no one would have thought drier would mean " Rain?.. Yeaa, forget about it, lol.. "   Listening to the podcast i do each month, esp. during monsoon season was both funny and sad.. You could tell everyone was pretty " disappointed ", to put it nicely,  about how this summer played out.. No one would have thought we'd experience two extremely dismal summers in a row..

Luckily, This year could be different ( at least according to what is being hinted at by Models like the CFS/ NMME atm, both now extending out to the July- September time frame..  Then again, last year looked good on paper at first, but quickly went south. I may not be here next summer, but still hoping the region doesn't add another bad year.. and that they'll be some good storms that reach S. Cal. a few times as well.

Long-term could be interesting for sure, and is where a majority of conflicting signals exist.. Some studies/ analysis i have seen/ read over suggest a shifting/ warming climate could result in more years where the drier-hotter- " ridge sits centered on top of  AZ. " -type of outcome trends higher.  

Other analysis being examined ..and is what i'd think the outcome would be, esp. considering the idea of a general northward trend in both jet stream/ upper level patterns, over time in a changing climate..  the Monsoonal ridge develops earlier, and shifts more north than many times in the past  ..to that 2nd most ideal position over Nor. NV.,UT, CO. / S. Wyoming ..allowing the southwest to hang out under it, in the most favored location for sustained, reoccurring influxes/recycling of moisture from Mexico/ Gulf of Mexico/ CA. 

..At the same time, the high's perimeter expands further west ( ..and perhaps more to the east, covering more of the plains, as well ) allowing more moisture to reach into CA.  I'd heard a detailed study was being done of marine deposits in the Gulf of California and would think it should be published sometime soon. Hoping the analysis will offer some solid clues on what the future may bring to an already complicated pattern.

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climate change virginia

I would never move to California id take my cold winters over 120 degree summers. dry heat is still heat

Edited by climate change virginia

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Silas_Sancona
10 minutes ago, climate change virginia said:

I would never move to California id take my cold winters over 120 degree summers. dry heat is still heat

Only the desert hits 115-120F daily/regularly during the summer. Such temps closer to the coast are rare.. Climate along the S. Cal. coast is about as good as it gets for growing -pretty much anything-

Having lived pretty much everywhere else in this country, West coast is the best coast for a mostly stable climate.  Never have to deal w/ snow, ice, extended cold, ..except when you choose to, up in the mountains, something FL. doesn't have.. Only thing missing is those wide, white sandy beaches/ turquoise Blue water FL. has.  Want that?,  head roughly 2 hours south, by plane, to Cabo or La Paz, ..in Baja Sur.

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AnTonY

@Silas_Sancona

I've always wondered how the beaches were in the GoC, as that is an area of the continent that I'm not too familiar with. The greatest I've heard is how some Arizonans take drives down to Rocky Point, but that's all. I don't know is Cabo has that "turquoise" beach aesthetic. Some images I've seen satisfy that, other images have darker, more "navy" blue water.

Also, if the West Coast is the "Best Coast," would that make the East Coast the "Beast Coast?" In an effort to rhyme, "the Gulf Coast could be the "Wealth Coast" or "Stealth Coast?"

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Silas_Sancona
3 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

@Silas_Sancona

I've always wondered how the beaches were in the GoC, as that is an area of the continent that I'm not too familiar with. The greatest I've heard is how some Arizonans take drives down to Rocky Point, but that's all. I don't know is Cabo has that "turquoise" beach aesthetic. Some images I've seen satisfy that, other images have darker, more "navy" blue water.

Also, if the West Coast is the "Best Coast," would that make the East Coast the "Beast Coast?" In an effort to rhyme, "the Gulf Coast could be the "Wealth Coast" or "Stealth Coast?"

No rhymes..

Each area has it's own advantage/disadvantage..  but in terms weather risk, the west coast, Central / S. Cal in particular,  have far less risk and which allows for a very diverse palate of plants that can be grown -with relative ease.. Throw in the rest of the state, inc. the Mountains and i can't think of any place on the U.S. mainland where you can grow near as many different plants..  Hurricanes, let alone a true blue Tropical Storm are practically unheard of, for the time being at least.. wild temperature swings, potential for snow/ice close to/at sea level, pretty rare as well, something areas east of the Rockies at a similar latitude or further south are more vulnerable to experiencing...  Tornadoes? rare out west, but something that might become more common -particularly in the Central Valley- 

 On the flip side, what that area lacks, is what places like the Central/ South Texas coast -and Florida are gifted with-.. though to some degree, that may be changing both in terms of warming sea surface water temps ( most noticed in summer, and/or during El Nino events ) and winter storms that may trend warmer/ more convective in nature, rather than the traditional flavor of raw cold wet i grew up with.. That said, the potential loss of annual snow pack, under that potential scenario, is a definite negative.. Decreasing influence of the marine layer will negatively effect some things, benefit others.



As far as the Gulf of CA, as with almost anywhere else, water quality/ clarity depends on the time of year, and where you're at.. More sheltered places like Bahia De Los Angeles, areas around San Carlos/ Guaymas, Isla Tiburon, and La Paz can have exceptional water quality/ clarity, while Cabo, particularly those areas closer to the open Pacific, ..and Todo Santos ( on the Pacific side of Baja Sur ) might be less picture perfect.. Haven't been to Puerto Penasco myself yet but have heard conflicting info. regarding the water quality/clarity there..  Personally more attracted to the dry, craggy/ rocky look of Baja  ..or Caribbean Islands over the flat and pretty featureless look of most of Florida.  Nice, but would be better if you could climb 80-200ft above it all.

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