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JLM

Northern Hemisphere Winter Season 2020/2021

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JLM

With the growing season coming to an end as far south as possibly Tampa, i think its about time we have a thread about this winter. @JJPalmer has also recommended this. 

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JJPalmer

Looks like the NW flow helped protect Florida’s west coast from the chilly temps tonight. Orlando’s UHI still somewhat visible, but pretty chilly for this time of year. Tomorrow will be more interesting in regards to observing microclimates. The New Orleans microclimate is putting on quite a show though. 

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B83B393F-D329-4980-AC5E-9314E38E3E15.png

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JJPalmer

NWS Tampa Bay posted a graphic showing patchy frost down to Port Charlotte. 

B366816D-671B-45E5-9AE7-1C46380FDF27.jpeg

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JJPalmer

Lot of interesting readings from Hill Country. Austin Bergstrom hit 22° this morning. 

28C348F7-991B-43E9-8AAB-0CB2509D31B0.png

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Matthew92

Somewhere around 27-28 deg in Niceville/Valparaiso area. Only areas that escaped freezing temps (but not by much) in the FL Panhandle seem to be barrier islands that have a body of water (bay) to the north. Interested to see if there was frost in those locations though.

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JLM

Had a low temp of 27F, wind chills got as low as 21F here earlier this morning. Hoping my protections proved efficient.

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PalmatierMeg

Low this a.m. = 56.8F. Predicted low Wed now 40F.

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JLM

Moved all my larger potted stuff outside for the day. Its call coming back inside tonight as we are expecting another freeze, forecasted low of 30 with wind chill values between 25 and 30. Lastnight was forecasted to be a low of 29, but i hit a low of 27. I expect a low in the upper 20s tonight.

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Estlander

A low of 34.2F in my yard last night. The worst for NW FL is over with a slight warmup of 40F low predicted for Wednesday morning. 
 

Edited by Estlander

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Xenon
3 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

Lot of interesting readings from Hill Country. Austin Bergstrom hit 22° this morning. 

Interesting, in town was a lot warmer. Camp Mabry recorded a low of 30F 

Warmest low in Texas this morning was 54F at South Padre Island 

Edited by Xenon

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JJPalmer

If you’re a model nerd, here are the latest runs. Forecasts appear to be more closely matched to the HRRR and NAM.  The GFS is materially warmer than other forecasts, but also appears to pick up more on UHI effects.  Will be interesting to see which most closely verifies. 

EF1C22E3-E22D-4964-906F-FB762BC96346.jpeg

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GottmitAlex

We're at 29C/ 84F  2:33pm PST

 

 

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JJPalmer

IR satellite image from tonight showing the warmth of the Everglades (darker grey) and the heat of the Gulf Stream off the east coast. Shows why SE FL is far less freeze prone than SW FL. 

E543EDAE-3BEF-4744-993D-DE8C33548BA6.jpeg

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JJPalmer

Temps falling off a cliff in the Tampa Bay Area. Dead calm. 

A1D2AC31-5627-447C-8C34-768B707DCD7F.png

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JLM

According to the NWS, my low reached 27F lastnight with a wind chill at times down to 22F. Had a decent frost as expected. All queens are unwrapped and will stay that way likely for the next couple of weeks. Watching the forecast for this weekend though.

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JLM

Just looked at my dancy tangerine, it took some minor leaf burn at the top. Other than that it looks pretty good!

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Matthew92
28 minutes ago, JLM said:

According to the NWS, my low reached 27F lastnight with a wind chill at times down to 22F. Had a decent frost as expected. All queens are unwrapped and will stay that way likely for the next couple of weeks. Watching the forecast for this weekend though.

You seem to track about the same as my location in Niceville. Low was about the same here with frost again. It scared me a little because last night around 10:30-11pm it was already in the mid-to upper 30's (which can be the case when a hard freeze in the low 20's is going to happen), but it didn't get any colder than the night before.

 

22 minutes ago, JLM said:

Just looked at my dancy tangerine, it took some minor leaf burn at the top. Other than that it looks pretty good!

Yeah, a few of my citrus had a sprig of new growth here and there from the anomalously warm temps the last few weeks but were "zapped" by this freeze. Thankfully this light freeze will be good to help them go dormant before we get harder freezes. 

Edited by Matthew92

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Estlander

A low of 33F last night. 

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Palmaceae

Went down to 41.2 last night here in St. Pete.

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JLM

Possible light freeze looking possible here on Monday night. Forecasted low of 34, but temps keep trending the wrong way.

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JJPalmer

Looking like the SE’s next chance at a cold spell will come right around Christmas. CPC issued a ‘below average’ forecast for the 23rd-29th.  Cold front looking to move through the region sometime late next week with really cold air behind it. Far too early to tell the severity, but definitely will be chilly. 

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JLM
1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

Looking like the SE’s next chance at a cold spell will come right around Christmas. CPC issued a ‘below average’ forecast for the 23rd-29th.  Cold front looking to move through the region sometime late next week with really cold air behind it. Far too early to tell the severity, but definitely will be chilly. 

Models trying to pick up on a snow event somewhere in the Mississippi Valley through that time, but nothing to really pay attention to right now as this is more than 7 days out.

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Matthew92

Something to keep an eye on.

1410711343_JamesSpann.JPG.b1c95dac419d4ddc9b472e68d8428fa4.JPG

 

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JLM
3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Something to keep an eye on.

1410711343_JamesSpann.JPG.b1c95dac419d4ddc9b472e68d8428fa4.JPG

 

UH oh, Spann is onto it!

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amh

24.6F this morning and still way too dry.

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JLM

Wrapping the queens tonight! A low of 32-35 is expected, but wind chills down in the 20-25 range. 
 

 

Edited by JLM
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JLM

We had a projected low of 30 lastnight, we bottomed out at 27. Got a decent frost too.

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kinzyjr

Seems like a lot of forecasts are overshooting on the low temperature this year.  Something to be wary of in the coming months.

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JLM
3 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Seems like a lot of forecasts are overshooting on the low temperature this year.  Something to be wary of in the coming months.

Its looking like Christmas will be a cold one, possibly record cold high temps with freezing temps maybe reaching Lake Okeechobee. Miami could reach the upper 30s. Plenty of time to watch this though.

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kinzyjr
Just now, JLM said:

Its looking like Christmas will be a cold one, possibly record cold high temps with freezing temps maybe reaching Lake Okeechobee. Miami could reach the upper 30s. Plenty of time to watch this though.

I've been reading about this with some interest.  I'm up in the air on whether to bother nursing some of my new plantings through a tough winter until they can get some size to them, or just letting nature do its "clear the slate" thing if we have a nasty freeze.  Tying coconut fronds up and wrapping them enough to protect the growing points isn't too bad on the maintenance end, but some of the other stuff has to either make it or break it on its own.

Our record cold high here is 38F per NOAA, but I saw 37F for a high in Jan. 2010 near the mall.  Some out in the sticks recorded a high of 33F back in Jan. 2010.  A high below freezing would cause some issues.

Currently, nothing below 39F for a low in the forecast on Weather.com, but their forecasts seem to change frequently.  @NickJames mentioned in the My first time ever having to move palms inside because it's cold out thread that he recorded his coldest temperature of the season thus far last night, in spite of a much milder forecast.  Here, none of my 5 sensors went below 40F, with a range of 40F-44F. 

image.png.911b8c2b53373b3703a8aea1767fd0e2.png

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NickJames
9 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I've been reading about this with some interest.  I'm up in the air on whether to bother nursing some of my new plantings through a tough winter until they can get some size to them, or just letting nature do its "clear the slate" thing if we have a nasty freeze.  Tying coconut fronds up and wrapping them enough to protect the growing points isn't too bad on the maintenance end, but some of the other stuff has to either make it or break it on its own.

Our record cold high here is 38F per NOAA, but I saw 37F for a high in Jan. 2010 near the mall.  Some out in the sticks recorded a high of 33F back in Jan. 2010.  A high below freezing would cause some issues.

Currently, nothing below 39F for a low in the forecast on Weather.com, but their forecasts seem to change frequently.  @NickJames mentioned in the My first time ever having to move palms inside because it's cold out thread that he recorded his coldest temperature of the season thus far last night, in spite of a much milder forecast.  Here, none of my 5 sensors went below 40F, with a range of 40F-44F. 

image.png.911b8c2b53373b3703a8aea1767fd0e2.png

Yeah, no fun last night. 

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NickJames

I’m quite concerned about next week. I was hoping to have at least a winter or two to toughen up my new plantings. I guess we’ll see what happens. I have some tools to protect in marginal events, but there’s no way I can wrap everything totally. I’m ok with frond damage, as long as the palm survives. 

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Matthew92
59 minutes ago, JLM said:

We had a projected low of 30 lastnight, we bottomed out at 27. Got a decent frost too.

About the same here in Niceville. 28-27 from weather stations in the neighborhood. Very heavy frost. 

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Estlander

Bottomed out at 37.6F last night. 

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JLM

GEFS Ens. Mean Snow Accumulation through Christmas Day. Something to watch. This will change a lot, but Christmas Eve is looking like one of those flip-flop days where we have at least 3 season in one day. Spring in the morning with severe storms, then converting to winter by the time the sun goes down. Nevertheless quite interesting.

gfsmean.PNG

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Silas_Sancona

Something worth keeping an eye on back east for the next couple weeks: :hmm:


 

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chinandega81
3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Something worth keeping an eye on back east for the next couple weeks: :hmm:


 

I've been waiting for good news like this!!

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Silas_Sancona
1 minute ago, chinandega81 said:

I've been waiting for good news like this!!

:hmm: Actually, if a split.. or SSW ( Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ) occurs, it could send a lobe of arctic air south as the Polar Vortex is weakened.. What side of the country/ globe could be effected? that is the big question for now.. ( I  say shove it out over the Atlantic myself ) if anything happens.  Want the Polar Vortex to stay locked up tight to keep things mild/ warm.



 

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chinandega81
3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

:hmm: Actually, if a split.. or SSW ( Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ) occurs, it could send a lobe of arctic air south as the Polar Vortex is weakened.. What side of the country/ globe could be effected? that is the big question for now.. ( I  say shove it out over the Atlantic myself ) if anything happens.  Want the Polar Vortex to stay locked up tight to keep things mild/ warm.



 

Is it me or does it seem like the artic air usually comes over land as opposed to heading to the ocean? I wish it would go over the Pacific and Atlantic and leave us nice and warm continent wide....talk about wishcasting. 

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Silas_Sancona
1 minute ago, chinandega81 said:

Is it me or does it seem like the artic air usually comes over land as opposed to heading to the ocean? I wish it would go over the Pacific and Atlantic and leave us nice and warm continent wide....talk about wishcasting. 

It goes over the ocean, but gets modified by it to some degree as it moves across it.. Would be nice if land has as much of the same modifying effect though for sure.  All in all though, while nights have been a tad cooler than i'd have thought so far,  we're at day 15 of highs at or above the average for the month so far.. might add 8 or 9 more before December ends.  23-25 days above normal, out of 31 isn't bad.

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