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Summer Down Under

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Tyrone

I wish these constant gusty easterlies would end. It’s doing my head in.

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greysrigging
3 hours ago, Tyrone said:

If the planes park for too long, their tyres will vulcanise to the tarmac. That’s so hot.

We used to dread the +44c days at Yandicoogina for that very reason. They would close the runways at Barramunya, and it meant an hour and a half bus trip to Area C Airport near Newman to get a flight to Perth. The tarmac at Barramunya was prone to melting. between Nov and March.

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sandgroper
22 hours ago, Tyrone said:

I wish these constant gusty easterlies would end. It’s doing my head in.

I've well and truly had enough of them mate.

Did you get any rain today Tyrone? It looked promising in Jandakot a few times but we so far have had nothing, just high humidity and 36c.

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Tyrone
5 hours ago, sandgroper said:

I've well and truly had enough of them mate.

Did you get any rain today Tyrone? It looked promising in Jandakot a few times but we so far have had nothing, just high humidity and 36c.

No rain down here, just gusty easterlies all day. However at 11pm the winds have totally stopped. Going for a 35C top tomorrow as well.

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sandgroper

No wind in Perth this morning but very humid, it's not going to be a pleasant day.

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Tyrone

We had a heavy dew this morning and almost no wind but it’s starting to stir a bit now. It’s going to be a stinker today.

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Tyrone

10am and 34C down here. I hope we get a gentle early sea breeze.. 

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Tyrone

It peaked at 36.2C. It’s just before 2.30pm and the temp has dropped to just above 30C with around 50% relative humidity and 18C dewpoints and climbing. The clouds have come in a bit too. For down here this is hot and sticky now. Gonna water the garden well tonight.

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sandgroper

Got to 37c in Jandakot, was a terrible day with the humidity. Hopefully a bit cooler tomorrow, it's no fun welding in this weather.

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Tyrone

In the early hours of the morning the thunder started rumbling away almost constantly at some stages. Then the rain came and this area has had around 10mm by 7.20am. Well needed rain too after a 36C day yesterday. 

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greysrigging
7 hours ago, Tyrone said:

In the early hours of the morning the thunder started rumbling away almost constantly at some stages. Then the rain came and this area has had around 10mm by 7.20am. Well needed rain too after a 36C day yesterday. 

And give our mates in the States a bit of Southern  WA Coastline perspective, the Town site Albany reached 30.8c ( 87.4f ) and 10klm, ( 6 miles ) away at the Airport it maxed out at 37.1c ( 98.8f ).

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greysrigging

A fairly decent heat wave forecast along the Murray Valley for the next 5 days. 44c's and 45c's in the mix as far south as Shepparton and Wangaratta.

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sandgroper
2 hours ago, greysrigging said:

A fairly decent heat wave forecast along the Murray Valley for the next 5 days. 44c's and 45c's in the mix as far south as Shepparton and Wangaratta.

That will be very unpleasant in Wang.

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greysrigging

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greysrigging

Tropical rain to follow heatwave and fire danger
 

An intense summer heatwave will sweep across southern and eastern Australia this weekend and early next week, before a burst of tropical rain douses the nation's south.

A near-stationary high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will cause hot air from central Australia to spread through the nation's southern and eastern states in the coming days.

Temperatures could climb more than 10ºC above average in some areas, with the abnormal summer heat lingering for a few days and nights. This intense heat will persist for long enough to be classified as a severe or extreme heatwave in multiple states and territories. These are the two highest categories on the three-tiered scale used in Australia.
354160677_Heatwave20200122.thumb.jpg.7780a67c9f942f5e210b6b55daa768f3.jpg
Image: Forecast surface temperature at 4pm AEST during each of the next six days, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.
 

The impending heat, which will be dangerous on its own, will also elevate the risk of bush and grass fires in some areas.

South Australia's Country Fire Service has issued total fire bans for six of the state's 15 districts on Sunday and four on Monday, with fire danger ratings anticipated to reach Severe to Extreme levels.

Severe fire danger has also been forecast in parts of Victoria and NSW on Monday, which will be the hottest day of the heatwave in both states.

Temperatures will reach the low to mid-forties over inland areas of central, southern and eastern Australia between Friday and Monday. Some capital cities are also in line to have at least one day in the forties, including Adelaide on Sunday, Melbourne on Monday and western Sydney on Tuesday.

There's a good chance that the impending heatwave in southeastern Australia will be enhanced by a tropical low pressure system that's currently developing near northwestern Australia. The link between these two weather events at opposite ends of the country was discovered by Australia researchers after the heatwave that preceded the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009.

But this complex interaction isn't the only way southeastern Australia will feel the effects of the tropical low.

After making landfall along the north coast of WA on Friday night as a low pressure system or weak tropical cyclone, the remnants of this system are likely to carry a large mass of moisture-laden air towards southern Australia.
1069106123_ECrain20200122.thumb.png.54e3cb2369158585505c6b14d8f63427.png
Image: Forecast accumulated rain between now and next Friday according to the ECMWF model.
 

A number of forecast models suggest that this injection of tropical air will cause rain and possibly thunderstorms over the Red Centre from Sunday before spreading over parts of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and NSW next week.

This rain could cause flooding in some areas and might also help to put out bushfires that were ignited during the heatwave preceding it.
( source: Weatherzone )

 

 

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Tyrone
23 hours ago, greysrigging said:

Tropical rain to follow heatwave and fire danger
 

An intense summer heatwave will sweep across southern and eastern Australia this weekend and early next week, before a burst of tropical rain douses the nation's south.

A near-stationary high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will cause hot air from central Australia to spread through the nation's southern and eastern states in the coming days.

Temperatures could climb more than 10ºC above average in some areas, with the abnormal summer heat lingering for a few days and nights. This intense heat will persist for long enough to be classified as a severe or extreme heatwave in multiple states and territories. These are the two highest categories on the three-tiered scale used in Australia.
354160677_Heatwave20200122.thumb.jpg.7780a67c9f942f5e210b6b55daa768f3.jpg
Image: Forecast surface temperature at 4pm AEST during each of the next six days, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.
 

The impending heat, which will be dangerous on its own, will also elevate the risk of bush and grass fires in some areas.

South Australia's Country Fire Service has issued total fire bans for six of the state's 15 districts on Sunday and four on Monday, with fire danger ratings anticipated to reach Severe to Extreme levels.

Severe fire danger has also been forecast in parts of Victoria and NSW on Monday, which will be the hottest day of the heatwave in both states.

Temperatures will reach the low to mid-forties over inland areas of central, southern and eastern Australia between Friday and Monday. Some capital cities are also in line to have at least one day in the forties, including Adelaide on Sunday, Melbourne on Monday and western Sydney on Tuesday.

There's a good chance that the impending heatwave in southeastern Australia will be enhanced by a tropical low pressure system that's currently developing near northwestern Australia. The link between these two weather events at opposite ends of the country was discovered by Australia researchers after the heatwave that preceded the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009.

But this complex interaction isn't the only way southeastern Australia will feel the effects of the tropical low.

After making landfall along the north coast of WA on Friday night as a low pressure system or weak tropical cyclone, the remnants of this system are likely to carry a large mass of moisture-laden air towards southern Australia.
1069106123_ECrain20200122.thumb.png.54e3cb2369158585505c6b14d8f63427.png
Image: Forecast accumulated rain between now and next Friday according to the ECMWF model.
 

A number of forecast models suggest that this injection of tropical air will cause rain and possibly thunderstorms over the Red Centre from Sunday before spreading over parts of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and NSW next week.

This rain could cause flooding in some areas and might also help to put out bushfires that were ignited during the heatwave preceding it.
( source: Weatherzone )

 

 

I’d be surprised if we got that amount of rain down here shown on the last image. But I’m happy to be wrong. 

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Tyrone

We got about 1.5mm of rain this morning. It’s dead still and 19C around 11.30am. A mild day before it slowly warms up. My Rhopalostylis are opening spears like mad at the moment.

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sipalms

Official temps of 40 or more recorded over Canterbury today, including some semi-official recordings on the outskirts of Christchurch even though the official city temp peaked at 37. Sitting around 25 at midnight right now. A nice change from weeks of humid and cool weather.

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sipalms

@Tyrone here's a special mention for one of your hometown trees I took a pic of today...

PSX_20210126_164610.jpg.9399d9fa8f0309281db12465d92f0f85.jpg

It's actually amazing how many of them there are growing around the hills and Oceanside suburbs of Chch. It's funny because they're quite an unassuming tree until they bloom, then they stick out like a (beautiful) sore toe!!

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Tyrone
2 hours ago, sipalms said:

Official temps of 40 or more recorded over Canterbury today, including some semi-official recordings on the outskirts of Christchurch even though the official city temp peaked at 37. Sitting around 25 at midnight right now. A nice change from weeks of humid and cool weather.

That’s hot for you guys. 25C at midnight. I don’t think I’ve ever recorded such a high temp at midnight here. That’s a sticky night for NZ.

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Tyrone

The weather situation could get interesting in WA in the next few days. A tropical low is forming in the Kimberley’s at the moment. Windy.com has it as a low that basically walks just inland of the coast all the way from Derby down to north of Carnarvon but because it’s just inland it’s still pulling energy off the ocean. Then the track map has it strengthening and still having circular motion as far south as Cape Naturaliste but still offshore maybe 200km out to sea. By then they usually turn extratropical and cold cored but still destructive. It’s a long way out and cyclones are notoriously difficult to predict far into the future but if that is how it turns out the last part could move similar to Cyclone Alby in 1978 that brought destructive winds to Albany. The BOM has the track slightly out to sea from Broome down but tracking directly along the coast to Exmouth then rounding the bend a bit around Cape Range. 

This could get interesting.

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sandgroper

Those bloody easterlies are back, I'm sick of them.

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greysrigging

^^ I've never heard any West Aussie ( especially since Covid ) have anything good to say about anything or anyone from the East....lol !:D

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sandgroper
3 hours ago, greysrigging said:

^^ I've never heard any West Aussie ( especially since Covid ) have anything good to say about anything or anyone from the East....lol !:D

:DThat's very good! I'm surprised McGowan hasn't forced the wind to quarantine for 14 days!

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greysrigging
1 hour ago, sandgroper said:

:DThat's very good! I'm surprised McGowan hasn't forced the wind to quarantine for 14 days!

Absolutely... those Covid germs could be blowing in on the East winds, same as the Starlings.... speaking of pest birds do you blokes have Indian Mynas in Perth ? Some of the wretched things have been spotted around Darwin Airport, and seems like the local Authorities are mobilising to deal with the threat posed. There were none around my house and community when I was a kid... ( my father bought me an air rifle as a kid, and I used to feed my ferrets on sparrows, starlings and mynas. )

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sandgroper
31 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Absolutely... those Covid germs could be blowing in on the East winds, same as the Starlings.... speaking of pest birds do you blokes have Indian Mynas in Perth ? Some of the wretched things have been spotted around Darwin Airport, and seems like the local Authorities are mobilising to deal with the threat posed. There were none around my house and community when I was a kid... ( my father bought me an air rifle as a kid, and I used to feed my ferrets on sparrows, starlings and mynas. )

No mate, no mynas  in Perth - yet! At least not that I'm aware of. Plenty of those feral pigeons though, disgusting things crapping everywhere.

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greysrigging
2 hours ago, sandgroper said:

No mate, no mynas  in Perth - yet! At least not that I'm aware of. Plenty of those feral pigeons though, disgusting things crapping everywhere.

We had feral pigeons around our shopping centers up until about 15 years ago, but Parks and Wildlife got their act together and successfully eradicated them. Every so often there is a Sparrow siting or 3 but these pests seem to be eradicated too. No Starlings in Darwin either....

Edited by greysrigging

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Tyrone
12 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Those bloody easterlies are back, I'm sick of them.

Yeah they’re back down here too. Only we’ve got blue skies and not overcast and freezing cold drizzle so it’s not too bad. We are moving into our warmest time of the year soon which will be nice. January brought us nearly 30mm of rain too. 

That tropical low up north has been hard to predict. The models keep alternating between whether it will go offshore south of Broome and become a TC early or just sit inland until about Coral Bay to Quobba area then become a cyclone. The last track model has it being a low over Albany after it has degraded from a TC near Perth. Way too early to tell really but the models are saying it will be a cyclone near NW cape in a few days time. 

Another weird thing on the forecast is a cut off low circulating like a cyclone in the Bight moving up to the Adelaide area around the same time. Real weird.

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PalmCode

Getting  desperate  for rain here (northern auckland). We've had bugger all, going on three summers. now. .. And its looking like another dry month ahead.  

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Tyrone
6 hours ago, PalmCode said:

Getting  desperate  for rain here (northern auckland). We've had bugger all, going on three summers. now. .. And its looking like another dry month ahead.  

How much rain have you had. 

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PalmCode
8 hours ago, Tyrone said:

How much rain have you had. 

last decent rain we got  was about 20mm just over 3 weeks ago. other than that just a few light showers.

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Tyrone
43 minutes ago, PalmCode said:

last decent rain we got  was about 20mm just over 3 weeks ago. other than that just a few light showers.

That is dry for you guys. Like a normal January in my area. Hopefully you get some rain soon.

Ive been watching the tropical low up north closely. The predicted rainfall for my place keeps going up and up but it can change in a heartbeat when it involves cyclones. So far windy.com has predicted 5mm of rain in 5 days, but 85mm accumulated rain in 10 days. It would be great to get that amount of rain in February and the associated warping of the tropics much further south than normal when that happens. 

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greysrigging

A Tale Of Four Lows 

Australia could soon be surrounded by four low pressure systems, increasing the likelihood of widespread rain and severe weather later this week.

As a general rule in atmospheric science, low pressure near the surface is usually associated with clouds, rain and thunderstorms, while high surface pressure typically brings calmer, drier weather.

With this rule of thumb in mind, the fact that Australia could be surrounded by four low pressure systems later this week suggests that we could be in for a dynamic mix of weather.

The map below shows the predicted surface pressure on Saturday using lines called 'isobars'. These lines connect areas of equal pressure in the atmosphere. When the isobars form concentric rings, they surround either an area of low or high pressure. These are often referred to as simply 'lows' and 'highs'.
1322243465_Fourlows.thumb.jpg.6d67151b2494ddb1e99f5131f353d4f5.jpg
Image: Forecast mean sea level pressure (isobars) on Saturday morning (according to the ACCESS-G model) showing four low pressure systems around Australia.

The map above shows that we could see four distinct low pressure systems surrounding Australia by Saturday, with lows sitting to the north, south east and west of the country.

This is an unusual synoptic pattern and it's likely to bring brollies out across Australia in the coming days.

-- West --

The low in the west, which has already caused flooding rain over northern districts of WA this week, was located near Carnarvon on Wednesday morning.

This low is expected to move offshore during the next 24 hours before drifting towards the south on Friday and Saturday, possibly close to or over the west coast of WA.

This system could cause heavy rain in western and southwestern districts of WA between Friday and Sunday, which may include welcome rain on the firegrounds near Perth this weekend.

-- East --

The low in the east is the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lucas, which became a cyclone over the Coral Sea on Sunday and is today causing severe weather in New Caledonia.

This low is likely to drift towards the southwest as an ex-tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. While it's not expected to reach Australia, moisture associated with this weakening low could contribute to rain in NSW and Queensland on the weekend.

-- North --

The low to the north, which hasn't developed yet, is likely to be a tropical low pressure system somewhere near the NT's Top End or over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Models suggest that this low will develop during the next couple of days. It even has the potential to become a tropical cyclone towards the end of the week, most likely over the Gulf.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the NT and Queensland as this low spins up, with more destructive conditions possible if it becomes a cyclone and approaches land.

-- South --

The low in the south is also yet to develop. This one will be a mid-latitude low pressure system, which will spawn to life as a mass of cold air from the Southern Ocean becomes cut off and drifts towards southern Australia.

This low will form over the Great Australian Bight by Thursday, before causing a cold front and low pressure trough to barrel across southeastern Australia between Thursday and Sunday.

This complex low, front and trough will interact with a stream of tropical moisture to cause widespread rain, blustery winds and potentially severe thunderstorms in parts of SA, Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT, NSW and Queensland.

The combined influence of these four low pressure systems is likely to cause rain in part of every state and territory during the second half of this week and early next week. The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting during the next seven days (between this Wednesday and Tuesday next week).
1147330146_Thisweekrain20200203.thumb.png.c855388d41f20661ae2639b8baa986b9.png
image: Forecast accumulated rain during the week ending on Tuesday, February 9.

Severe weather is also possible in multiple states on multiple days, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest warnings.
( source 'Weatherzone' )




 



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Edited by greysrigging

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Tyrone
1 hour ago, greysrigging said:

A Tale Of Four Lows 

Australia could soon be surrounded by four low pressure systems, increasing the likelihood of widespread rain and severe weather later this week.

As a general rule in atmospheric science, low pressure near the surface is usually associated with clouds, rain and thunderstorms, while high surface pressure typically brings calmer, drier weather.

With this rule of thumb in mind, the fact that Australia could be surrounded by four low pressure systems later this week suggests that we could be in for a dynamic mix of weather.

The map below shows the predicted surface pressure on Saturday using lines called 'isobars'. These lines connect areas of equal pressure in the atmosphere. When the isobars form concentric rings, they surround either an area of low or high pressure. These are often referred to as simply 'lows' and 'highs'.
1322243465_Fourlows.thumb.jpg.6d67151b2494ddb1e99f5131f353d4f5.jpg
Image: Forecast mean sea level pressure (isobars) on Saturday morning (according to the ACCESS-G model) showing four low pressure systems around Australia.

The map above shows that we could see four distinct low pressure systems surrounding Australia by Saturday, with lows sitting to the north, south east and west of the country.

This is an unusual synoptic pattern and it's likely to bring brollies out across Australia in the coming days.

-- West --

The low in the west, which has already caused flooding rain over northern districts of WA this week, was located near Carnarvon on Wednesday morning.

This low is expected to move offshore during the next 24 hours before drifting towards the south on Friday and Saturday, possibly close to or over the west coast of WA.

This system could cause heavy rain in western and southwestern districts of WA between Friday and Sunday, which may include welcome rain on the firegrounds near Perth this weekend.

-- East --

The low in the east is the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lucas, which became a cyclone over the Coral Sea on Sunday and is today causing severe weather in New Caledonia.

This low is likely to drift towards the southwest as an ex-tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. While it's not expected to reach Australia, moisture associated with this weakening low could contribute to rain in NSW and Queensland on the weekend.

-- North --

The low to the north, which hasn't developed yet, is likely to be a tropical low pressure system somewhere near the NT's Top End or over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Models suggest that this low will develop during the next couple of days. It even has the potential to become a tropical cyclone towards the end of the week, most likely over the Gulf.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the NT and Queensland as this low spins up, with more destructive conditions possible if it becomes a cyclone and approaches land.

-- South --

The low in the south is also yet to develop. This one will be a mid-latitude low pressure system, which will spawn to life as a mass of cold air from the Southern Ocean becomes cut off and drifts towards southern Australia.

This low will form over the Great Australian Bight by Thursday, before causing a cold front and low pressure trough to barrel across southeastern Australia between Thursday and Sunday.

This complex low, front and trough will interact with a stream of tropical moisture to cause widespread rain, blustery winds and potentially severe thunderstorms in parts of SA, Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT, NSW and Queensland.

The combined influence of these four low pressure systems is likely to cause rain in part of every state and territory during the second half of this week and early next week. The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting during the next seven days (between this Wednesday and Tuesday next week).
1147330146_Thisweekrain20200203.thumb.png.c855388d41f20661ae2639b8baa986b9.png
image: Forecast accumulated rain during the week ending on Tuesday, February 9.

Severe weather is also possible in multiple states on multiple days, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest warnings.
( source 'Weatherzone' )




 



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

I'm hoping for 50-60mm of rain from that low. We had a mm or two this morning and its blowing gusty southerlies in the high teens. Usual February weather in Albany.:lol:

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Tyrone

Looks like the rain will get to Perth this afternoon. Hopefully that may extinguish the huge fire up there. Up to 86 houses destroyed now.

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sandgroper
9 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Looks like the rain will get to Perth this afternoon. Hopefully that may extinguish the huge fire up there. Up to 86 houses destroyed now.

It's raining now, not heavy but constant so hopefully it'll increase throughout the night. The cool temperature and rain are very welcome, I'm really enjoying it. It should really help our fireos  too which is great, it's been terrible this past week. They are real hero's, a huge Thank you to our fantastic firefighters who have been working tirelessly this past week and to the boys from the NSWRFS who've come to help with their water bombers. It really has been a terrible week here, let's hope we don't have another one like it for a long time.

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sandgroper

Fireos have announced that finally the bushfire has been contained. A total of 86 homes completely destroyed but thankfully no lives lost.  It's been very windy throughout the night but the rain has helped a lot. Now we have severe flooding around Carnarvon, 36 people had to be rescued by helicopter yesterday near Minilya. I know that road well having travelled it evey week for nine years and have seen it flooded many times but the footage on the news looked pretty bad, the road has been completely washed away in places. Funny thing is I wouldn't live anywhere else, Australia is an adventure.

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Tyrone

Glad the fires are contained and no loss of life. They’ll be mopping up for a while. The firies can get some well earned rest.

The easterlies have picked up down here. We got a steady 10mm of rain overnight and windy.com is saying we’ve got around another 50mm coming. The low looks like it will cross the coast around Rockingham, Secret Harbour area later today then pop out the other side around Windy Harbour to Walpole area. It’s going to get wetter today then. 

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sandgroper

There's plenty of water around in the Gascoyne.

Screenshot_20210207-160542_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210207-160450_Gallery.jpg

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