Jump to content
  • WELCOME GUEST

    It looks as if you are viewing PalmTalk as an unregistered Guest.

    Please consider registering so as to take better advantage of our vast knowledge base and friendly community.  By registering you will gain access to many features - among them are our powerful Search feature, the ability to Private Message other Users, and be able to post and/or answer questions from all over the world. It is completely free, no “catches,” and you will have complete control over how you wish to use this site.

    PalmTalk is sponsored by the International Palm Society. - an organization dedicated to learning everything about and enjoying palm trees (and their companion plants) while conserving endangered palm species and habitat worldwide. Please take the time to know us all better and register.

    guest Renda04.jpg

Average First Frost


JLM

Recommended Posts

From Mobile NWS discussion (forecast area includes as far east as Okaloosa Country)

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Deep layer dry air will overspread the region tonight into
Tuesday. Lingering clouds over our northeast zones should decrease
into the early-mid evening hours, with generally clear skies
otherwise anticipated tonight into Tuesday. Surface high pressure
also gradually builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states late
tonight into Tuesday. Northwesterly winds should gradually
decrease tonight. Clear skies, dry air, and cold advection will be
supportive of the first widespread freeze of this season and the
Freeze Warning continues for all zones tonight. Lows are still
forecast to range from 25-30 across locations especially along and
north of Interstate 10, and in the lower 30s along the immediate
coast. The only places that may stay above freezing are along the
barrier islands, where winds remain elevated. Highs Tuesday remain
well below normal in the lower to mid 50s. /21
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has a ‘Winter 2020-2021’ thread been established? Feel like a full thread dedicated to documenting cold plunges / microclimates could be useful instead of searching for one-off events. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

Euro vs GFS vs NAM for 7AM Wednesday morning. 

3EDA60FF-7B2C-46C1-9033-340EE3962A79.jpeg

79F760A6-46AF-4470-9030-4E470C94D34B.jpeg

4028992E-E7A6-4FD7-B0E5-40CD0C7E4542.jpeg

Which one of those models is the most reliable? Please don't say the coldest one...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

None of these models this year have been reliable. With the lack of air travel, less data is being put into each model run.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

From Mobile NWS discussion (forecast area includes as far east as Okaloosa Country)


Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Deep layer dry air will overspread the region tonight into
Tuesday. Lingering clouds over our northeast zones should decrease
into the early-mid evening hours, with generally clear skies
otherwise anticipated tonight into Tuesday. Surface high pressure
also gradually builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states late
tonight into Tuesday. Northwesterly winds should gradually
decrease tonight. Clear skies, dry air, and cold advection will be
supportive of the first widespread freeze of this season and the
Freeze Warning continues for all zones tonight. Lows are still
forecast to range from 25-30 across locations especially along and
north of Interstate 10, and in the lower 30s along the immediate
coast. The only places that may stay above freezing are along the
barrier islands, where winds remain elevated. Highs Tuesday remain
well below normal in the lower to mid 50s. /21

That discussion covers everywhere from the Okaloosa/Walton line to parts of Mississippi. I sometimes get confused, which is worse, and advective or radiative freeze? I would assume radiative?

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, JLM said:

That discussion covers everywhere from the Okaloosa/Walton line to parts of Mississippi. I sometimes get confused, which is worse, and advective or radiative freeze? I would assume radiative?

It depends to some degree on the particular plant's tolerance to frost, but in my case, I would go with the advective freeze. 

The worst effect of a radiational freeze for most tropical plants is frost.  This is mostly mitigated by overhead canopy.  The air is also very stratified during a radiational freeze.  You may measure 28F at 6 feet, but if you put another weather station at the top of a telephone pole it might be at or near 40F.  This is one reason why you see large, tall palms survive radiational freezes.  @sonoranfans has written about this quite a bit.

Advective freezes are a completely different bird.  They typically don't leave frost due to the air movement of the winds blowing, but the damage is relatively asymmetric with the actual air temperature.  The advective freeze in 2018 caused some of my sea grapes to drop leaves at 28F.  I've had lower temperatures during radiational events before and not had a single leaf turn brown.  The air is well mixed, so you won't have the temperature difference between 6 feet and 30 feet that makes the weather a little more bearable for large palms.  Then there is the wind chill.  What really matters is the temperature of the bud.  If it lives, the palm lives.  During 2018, I had very breezy conditions all night.  15-20MPH sustained winds with gusts in the 30MPH range.  That will cool off the bud a lot faster than a very still night at 26F.  A good defense against an advective freeze is to shield your plants from the north and west winds (on the east coast), either with dense shrubs/bamboo or putting them tight against a brick wall. 

You'll notice on the Remarkable Palms of Tampa Bay thread that a lot of our "shouldn't grow here" stuff in Lakeland is relatively close to a concrete wall that faces south or east in the city's interior.  Done 100% on purpose to mitigate freeze events.

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like i might want to wrapand plug in the christmas lights on my queens anyway. Wind chills 20-30 could be deadly.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I took some screenshots at around 5:30 am. Looks like I bottomed out at around 39. Tonight’s forecast low is 60. Proximity to water definitely made a difference, as did the UHI. Most of them are Texas, but I grabbed a few of Florida. I believe this is supposed to be worse for Florida tomorrow so I’ll do it again then. 

D8870B6F-6860-4447-BF53-0AE73F9923DE.png

6486E405-5BC9-4A88-AF49-E11E1E95BEB0.png

3CDDDD07-2711-4478-B28E-0CEDAC424CD7.png

26E8823D-4D36-4AC3-BF5F-F2E5BECC464C.png

9DDB3DCB-9AEC-4E79-896B-BA69DCE8B659.png

31C6CC98-5FED-4AD7-9F4D-A23764C5090C.png

411C54BD-CD6B-4EA5-82B0-1B1C2C76034B.png

A024F10A-6919-46F9-AA89-BD90CA7E9D65.png

437E80C9-3BDD-44FF-BF66-B94343D6C254.png

1F9EB478-5D07-478E-93E5-12D1E36D203B.png

10D4CD83-A662-4E9C-86D2-90728FAC43B0.png

EC5BC54B-FC4E-40CF-A4E5-FD59DF2B5914.png

7C89CB9D-EE0C-43FD-9AB6-2937D29172C9.png

8042419E-9AAD-41DC-900B-BD5CA46ED6F2.png

6C9DE8D4-C928-4A96-B45B-118F08D12652.png

10ABF946-284D-41AB-8406-F1E279486163.png

C9EACAD3-F283-404E-B204-5BA06E9C5A54.png

8CEEBDB0-BCD9-4F77-BD76-AB0AF1373003.png

15B57C37-8185-49C7-8563-CE77621A5AAF.png

5C5353DE-B9C2-452F-B670-87D23DFEFAF3.png

9683A5E0-306F-4464-8C79-DC7050B5965A.png

BBF90093-131A-47B4-A6B6-0AD44A13452A.png

935F9991-64CD-4A90-87A1-DA0C692A1819.png

88834509-84AF-48AC-89F1-226F0FB2C77F.png

4EBE16A7-1BDD-47FD-B5B7-13C7D1CC8BE3.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@JJPalmer i would say the GFS is probably a good bet.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...