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JLM

Average First Frost

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JLM

Based on data from 1981-2010, the first frost in my area on average comes around November 6th. Here we are approaching December within the next couple of weeks with no temps in the 30's anywhere in the forecast! Looks like first frost maybe the very tail end of November or early December. Forecast models are hinting at maybe a frost coming on December 5th, which is literally almost a whole month past the average date.

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kinzyjr

Hopefully all of that frost/freeze stuff stays up by the north pole where it belongs :)

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JLM
42 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Hopefully all of that frost/freeze stuff stays up by the north pole where it belongs :)

Totally 110% agree with you! If only it worked that way :bummed:

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JLM

Go home CMC, your drunk!

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JLM

This just isnt even credible anymore...This is the CMC snowfall forecast :floor:

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kinzyjr
4 hours ago, JLM said:

Go home CMC, your drunk!

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25 here.  Ouch!  Let's hope not, but it wouldn't be the first time unfortunately.

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chinandega81

I´m afraid to ask, what date are those temps forecast? I hope they are wrong. Not a good sign....

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JLM
7 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

I´m afraid to ask, what date are those temps forecast? I hope they are wrong. Not a good sign....

That model has backed off, although still showing a central/south Florida freeze. These are forecasted for sometime between December 1st-5th. No other models shows this though, so your all good!

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chinandega81
14 hours ago, JLM said:

That model has backed off, although still showing a central/south Florida freeze. These are forecasted for sometime between December 1st-5th. No other models shows this though, so your all good!

Regardless...I heard that this was supposed to be a warmer and drier winter. I hope that ultimately pans out. The past winters have had a delayed start..say after Xmas. I guess an early December strong front is just something I am not ready for pscyhologically. I think all the hurricanes and storms have cooled the waters quite a bit...that might aid in the cooling process.

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Matthew92

Looks like now there's good confidence for a freeze in the Panhandle at least- with a good cold shot to the peninsula Nov 30-Dec 2 timeframe. Have been fortunate the last two winters in much of the Panhandle with temps mild enough to allow queen palms to survive (even non-coastal areas). 

Edited by Matthew92

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AnTonY

That's the weird thing I've seen with recent La Nina's - they're all mostly warm on average, in accordance to the predictions, yet there always happens to be these random cold snaps.

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ruskinPalms

I see it is scary weather map time again! :laugh2:

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JLM

@Matthew92 it does appear fairly likely. Based off the models i expect temps to range from 29-32, this could change. Not queen killing temps! If the temps threaten to go any lower than 26 i will be wrapping the queens to be safe.

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kinzyjr

It does look like an old-fashioned "Welcome to December" cool-off in our future, with at least a week of below average temperatures.

202011241755_LakelandWeather.png

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JLM

@kinzyjr This is an example of why i dont like long range seasonal outlooks! There will always be that opposite period.

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chinandega81

Well if we havw to get some random cold even in a warm winter, let's get it now before the really cold air is manufactured in the Artic. Hopefully it stays bottled up there until they start getting more sunlight. 

 

Everytime there is a cold front that brings highs to the 60s and lows to the 40s, the local news anchors get "excited." I can't understand why you would want to live and work in the ONE spot in the US where this cold weather is rare? Why not take a job anywhere else and be able to "enjoy" the cold much more frequently? I get sunny, warm, dry days but the cold ones? Naah! I just hope this air mass modifies quickly. I don't remember too many early season fronts like this...the worst usually comes after Xmas...it's January and February that are always the scriest months in the garden. December usually is benign in South Florida. I guess not so this year.

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JLM
12 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Well if we havw to get some random cold even in a warm winter, let's get it now before the really cold air is manufactured in the Artic. Hopefully it stays bottled up there until they start getting more sunlight. 

 

Everytime there is a cold front that brings highs to the 60s and lows to the 40s, the local news anchors get "excited." I can't understand why you would want to live and work in the ONE spot in the US where this cold weather is rare? Why not take a job anywhere else and be able to "enjoy" the cold much more frequently? I get sunny, warm, dry days but the cold ones? Naah! I just hope this air mass modifies quickly. I don't remember too many early season fronts like this...the worst usually comes after Xmas...it's January and February that are always the scriest months in the garden. December usually is benign in South Florida. I guess not so this year.

Looks like there is a very small chance at some early season flakes in the Carolinas next week. Hard to believe it. I go from not even dipping into the 30s since last winter to all of the sudden possibly upper 20s next week, c'mon now. I havent even had my first frost yet, which on average usually happens by November 22nd. 

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kinzyjr

Forecast is trending down as far as low temperature (Tues => 36F vs 43 in my last post):

image.png.9c16df39548a1de999de29ca42165bc9.png

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chinandega81
12 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Forecast is trending down as far as low temperature (Tues => 36F vs 43 in my last post):

image.png.9c16df39548a1de999de29ca42165bc9.png

But isn't that always the trend? Initially when I saw the forecase they were calling for temps to be around 70 for a high and near 50 for a low. That seems to never happen. It is usually upper 60s and upper 40s. They always tend to lower the forecasts about 5 degrees as the cold fronts approach. It never seems to go the other way unfortunately. I saw there is another front expected for next weekend too...ugh. Let's hope there is a pattern shift with a strong Caribbean high building in for the winter.

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JLM

@kinzyjr my forecast has also been trending in the wrong direction. A couple of days ago it was expected to be a low of 33, this has now fallen to 29 as of this morning.

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JLM

Monday Night low keeps going lower. Has gone from 33F to now 28F within the last couple of days. Looks like a severe weather threat tomorrow with heavy rain. Not a fun forecast.

frstfrz.PNG

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kinzyjr

@JLM It looks like it will be around 35F-37F here in my neck of the woods if they are reasonably accurate with the forecast.  I set out some additional thermometers just to see what happens in various areas of the yard.  Radar shows a big nasty mess coming our way as usual before the cold air gets here.  I guess some of the new "out-of-zone" stuff will get a good practice test out of this one.  Nothing in the 20s, at least so far.

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CodyORB

70972109_Screenshot2020-11-28at7_11_09PM.png.d998162492571942730c4a2cb2c6bb54.png

Well there goes our chance of another 34F 10a/10b winter. :sick: My baby coconut is gonna need some serious lighting and layering. I'll report back with what I come up with.

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kinzyjr

@CodyORB Since it isn't too large, just take a large beach towel or blanket, tie the fronds up around the growing point, and then wrap it up if you're worried about losing it.  It was enough to keep seedlings alive here during the advective freeze in Jan. 2018.

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JLM

I went ahead and brought everything inside. There will be no sun tomorrow, all rain. Might aswell do it right?

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JLM

Oh and by the way, the foxtail is recovering nicely!

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Estlander
23 minutes ago, JLM said:

Monday Night low keeps going lower. Has gone from 33F to now 28F within the last couple of days. Looks like a severe weather threat tomorrow with heavy rain. Not a fun forecast.

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28F????/ WOW, crazy. Monday night low for us here is 37F, and a Tuesday night a low of 40F.  Will place thermometers in different parts of the yard to see what I'll actually capture as my lowest low.

Capture.JPG

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Estlander

I'll leave my potted Foxtail out. They can take temperature in the 30's just fine based on my observations from last winter. The only palm I'll be bringing in Mon and Tue night is my Adonidia.

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JLM

Freeze Watches along the Gulf Coast this AM

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JLM

More freeze and winter weather alerts being added.

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Xenon

This will be a good chance to observe the extent of the heat island effect in Houston. 

image8.png?bfa8b007b48ca5d68bd476d506b818b7

 

The cold will reach the border as well. Going to be keeping on eye on the McAllen-Reynosa heat island, which I suspect is going to run a few degrees warmer than Harlingen. 

image14.png?3c3ff1907145df18b8f6b09758e6cc50

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Xenon

New Orleans gets the full effect from Lake Pontchartrain

small5.png?223d68ee3d0dd32eee586ac267b36447

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Jeff985

AccuWeather is predicting a low of 39 at my house and 38 for Brownsville. I’m suspicious. And 45 for Galveston, which is usually a couple degrees warmer than me, but not 6. 

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JLM

My predicted lows here keep dropping, low of 27F expected Tuesday night.

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Xenon
34 minutes ago, Jeff985 said:

AccuWeather is predicting a low of 39 at my house and 38 for Brownsville. I’m suspicious. And 45 for Galveston, which is usually a couple degrees warmer than me, but not 6. 

This front is providing a good setup for water moderation, the winds are forecast to die down Monday night and allow for the full radiative effect from water that is still quite warm (SPI surf temp was in the upper 70s a few days ago). NWS currently has Brownsville 41F, SPI 60F,  Kemah 38F. and Galveston  45F. 

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Jeff985
1 hour ago, Xenon said:

This front is providing a good setup for water moderation, the winds are forecast to die down Monday night and allow for the full radiative effect from water that is still quite warm (SPI surf temp was in the upper 70s a few days ago). NWS currently has Brownsville 41F, SPI 60F,  Kemah 38F. and Galveston  45F. 

SPI 19 degrees warmer than Brownsville!!!

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JLM

As of 11:30pm CST. Some watches being upgraded to warnings. All Frost/Freeze alerts displayed. Im now under a Freeze Warning :/

alerts29.PNG

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JJPalmer

Downright chilly forecast for Tuesday evening into Wednesday for the West Florida Peninsula 

4F6CAE79-3AE8-46B2-8D48-EE5DEF4C2B5F.jpeg

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Xenon

Now expecting a nearly calm night. Urban Houston is trending warmer and rural areas are trending colder. Houston heat island to the rescue! Look at that temperature contrast; 17 degree spread all within in the Houston Metro. 

image2.png?1308354b005dda95799095cb338df368

Edited by Xenon

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JJPalmer

Euro vs GFS vs NAM for 7AM Wednesday morning. 

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79F760A6-46AF-4470-9030-4E470C94D34B.jpeg

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