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Swolte

20/21 Winter predictions!!

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Swolte

What are you expecting this coming winter? Do you rely on the farmer's Almanac, a favorite meteorologist, or have you completely given up on long-range forecasts? Also, when do you start getting your protective gear out for the palms?

As for predictions, I always prepare for the worst but I do like to see what's in store. Looks like several sources predict Texas is in for a dry and mild winter (which may have something to do with a moderately strong La Niña effect). For the rest, I check local news every so often for the 2 week weather forecast. If I see we may hit freezing, I'm getting the frost blankets and buckets out (at least for the young palms)!

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TexasColdHardyPalms

@Swolte I hope you're right. I'd like nothing more than a nice, rare 9b winter up here. 

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OC2Texaspalmlvr
9 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

@Swolte I hope you're right. I'd like nothing more than a nice, rare 9b winter up here. 

I always welcome a nice warm winter. May the palm gods shine on your nursery !!! 

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Meangreen94z

Yes, another mild winter would be great. 

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climate change virginia

I hope I get a mild winter dc is smack in the middle of the jet stream

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Silas_Sancona

Expecting warm / dry here.. W/ some chilly mornings. ( back to the mid/ upper 80s most of next week however )

As referenced over in the weather section, two things worth looking over for the winter ahead. Will be making a summary of accuracy come the end of Feb.

**Forecaster Judah Cohen's weekly winter analysis blog over on AER. ( Posts daily/bi-daily updates/thoughts on Twitter )

**CPC NMME models ( US precip/ Temp plots in particular. Did not post this months' update. Plots are updated around the 6th of each month. ): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

 

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jimmyt

I have already begun to move plants into the greenhouse.  Ave 1st freeze for my area is the 2nd week of November.  Last year I got a surprise freeze of 26 F on November 1st.  We usually get a wicked freeze/hard winter once every 10 years on ave. I keep an eye on the local projected 10 day forecast to keep ready. It is easy to become to relaxed after the last 2 mild winters.  I am in transition Zn 8a/8b in dead central Texas. 

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Swolte
11 minutes ago, jimmyt said:

Last year I got a surprise freeze of 26 F on November 1st.

Yes, that one caught me off-guard. I was able to protect some precious plants the day before but I still had some damage/deaths. Underestimated its effect. Won't happen again! 

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DAVEinMB

Accuweather shows MB holding solid 9b temps through mid February. Fingers crossed

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NC_Palm_Enthusiast

The channel DirectWeather on youtube does a good job. Here is his latest winter forecast:

 

Edited by NC_Palm_Enthusiast

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DAVEinMB
47 minutes ago, NC_Palm_Enthusiast said:

The channel DirectWeather on youtube does a good job. Here is his latest winter forecast:

 

Dry and warm winter for the southeast. Yea buddy

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Chester B
10 minutes ago, DAVEinMB said:

Dry and warm winter for the southeast. Yea buddy

Total garbage.  Earlier in the year they were saying average temps and slightly drier for me, and now it looks like its going to cold and wetter than normal like your map above indicates.

Is it June yet?

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DAVEinMB
1 hour ago, Chester B said:

Total garbage.  Earlier in the year they were saying average temps and slightly drier for me, and now it looks like its going to cold and wetter than normal like your map above indicates.

Is it June yet?

Yea this video doesn't really show good news for you up in the PNW. How do his predictions compare to the accuweather extended forecast for your area? They're pretty consistent for me over here

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climate change virginia
17 hours ago, DAVEinMB said:

Dry and warm winter for the southeast. Yea buddy

ay lesgo

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Chester B
On 11/12/2020 at 3:58 PM, DAVEinMB said:

Yea this video doesn't really show good news for you up in the PNW. How do his predictions compare to the accuweather extended forecast for your area? They're pretty consistent for me over here

They're saying extra precipitation as both rain and snow, as well as a lot of storms.  Temps near normal.

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climate change virginia
35 minutes ago, Will Simpson said:

CPC-SO-700-temp-2020-10-15.png

yes warm winter

Edited by climate change virginia

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DAVEinMB
1 hour ago, Chester B said:

They're saying extra precipitation as both rain and snow, as well as a lot of storms.  Temps near normal.

Well hopefully for you it won't be as wet as they're predicting. It's getting close so we'll know here soon...

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GregVirginia7
On 11/10/2020 at 11:09 PM, Swolte said:

What are you expecting this coming winter? Do you rely on the farmer's Almanac, a favorite meteorologist, or have you completely given up on long-range forecasts? Also, when do you start getting your protective gear out for the palms?

As for predictions, I always prepare for the worst but I do like to see what's in store. Looks like several sources predict Texas is in for a dry and mild winter (which may have something to do with a moderately strong La Niña effect). For the rest, I check local news every so often for the 2 week weather forecast. If I see we may hit freezing, I'm getting the frost blankets and buckets out (at least for the young palms)!

Getting ready to string some small incandescent lights around the circumference of the drip edge my Mediterranean Fan. I have a shepherd’s hook about 12” taller than the plant situated in the middle of the palm so I can drape a large cover of frost cloth as winter advances...my Trachy is too tall to protect and since 2014 hasn’t needed much at all but I do wrap the crown with a string of small incandescents as well as the base of the trunk...if it gets into the teens or single digits I’ll wrap the trunk in frost cloth and let it soak up the souther facing sun’s energy during the day...the low growing McCurtain and Brazoria will get a loose cowl of burlap stuffed with leaves...if it gets too cold, I can cover these with shrub covers...anyway, they’re all pretty successful veterans of our Northern Virginia winters. Probably the most valuable protection is regular application of copper fungicide aimed at the crowns, especially during wet, cold spells...but add to that a layer of frost cloth on the ground around the palms and the sun adds great value to the winter environment...I’ll admit to the Farmer’s Almanac as a loose predictor but it does look close to the NOAA map above...I do like lighting things up in the winter...nice to look at on a snowy night if it happens. We tend to just get those sinking, sickening polar vortices.

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JLM

Ive grown to not like Direct Weather that much. I would much rather seek official info. Although i can say this, James Spann out of Birmingham ABC 33/40 doesnt like long range seasonal forecasts. I do agree, long range season forecasts are not that great. You have to take into account when you look at those outlooks that deadly cold snaps can still happen, regardless of whether or not NOAA is predicting warmer and drier than normal conditions throughout winter. Im not going to focus on seasonal forecasts, but more like 10 day forecasts. If temps threaten to reach 26 or lower, im covering my queens. I know they can probably take 26, but i have one common goal for them, flower and seed atleast one time before the cold takes them. I doubt this will be achieved, but its worth a shot!

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Swolte
1 hour ago, GregVirginia7 said:

regular application of copper fungicide

I have started doing this recently, also (Daconil fungicide). The last two winters have been mild so I haven't really been putting the method to the test.

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ColdBonsai

We'll see. La Nina will probably mean more rain, but cold? Hard to say. Seems to be at what angle the jet stream comes in at that makes the biggest difference for our temps. If I had to bet, I'd say Dec might be a bit wet/snowy to start with things warming up a little towards the end of January. But what do I know?

Edited by ColdBonsai

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Jubaea_James760

We had 2 lows of 26f in the beginning of November already. Luckily I was in town a few days before :bemused:! It caught me off guard but I was able to cover the newly planted stuff & some zone pushers as well as my pots. Everything was fine & it was really brief. The Queen palms are on their own Lol. I didn't protect them their first winter so i don't really feel sorry for them anymore  :P. On a side note I think my Jubaea Chilensis is loving the cooler weather! It seems like its growing a bit faster. I'll have to mark it when I get home tomorrow to see how much it actually grows over winter.

 

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knikfar
On 11/12/2020 at 4:46 PM, NC_Palm_Enthusiast said:

The channel DirectWeather on youtube does a good job. Here is his latest winter forecast:

 

I'm in Raleigh. So that winter battle zone/southeast ridge line goes right over my house. I'm hoping to be on the southeast ridge side of this. 

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SailorBold

It looks to be forecasted as a warm winter here... if you would have asked me a month ago I'd disagree with the snow and cold we had. Albuquerque is unpredictable when it comes to weather events mainly due to its elevation... I hope its sunny and dry...

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