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Silas_Sancona

Winter 2020.. A glimpse ahead..

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Silas_Sancona

With October quickly moving along, thought it might be time to take a look at what may lie ahead for the up-coming winter here in the U.S.

Climate Prediction Center released their latest update to the CFSv2's North American Model plots/ Ensemble thoughts on how the next 3-4 months could pan out. Take a look.. 

**As is the case with any forecast, nothing is set in stone and any pattern set ups not presently noted atm, that might occur later, can shift what is suggested presently. Keep in mind the CFS itself has it's hiccups and can lean either too warm or dry or vice versa from time to time**  That said, the 8 or so models depicted here are all used when making longer range/ seasonal forecasts and general trends can be noted well ahead of 30 days. Current trends -suggested in the latest update- follow trends that emerged over the summer.

The model plots go out to April but focus is on the next 3-4 months. Could have added March but for most spots from CA. to FL. " Winter " is pretty much in the bag by the end of Feb.   Needless to say, looks quite dry and warm, esp here in the Southwest/ CA.. Will be interesting to see how well these forecasts did at the end of Feb.

Suggested Precip:

Nov:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead1.html


Dec:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead2.html


Jan:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead3.html


Feb:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead4.html


Suggested Temperatures:

Nov:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

Dec:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html

Jan:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html

Feb:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead4.html
 

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GottmitAlex

Oh wow! Hope this forecast model sticks

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mdsonofthesouth

Would be nice to have another mild winter. 

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Silas_Sancona

Some tweets from Winter Weather master Guru Judah Cohen over the last few days. His tweets/ Weekly weather Blog updates ( normally put out on Mondays this time of year.. but sometimes later ) are worth checking in on periodically..
 

 

 

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chinandega81

Thanks for sharing. So for South Florida, would it be a typical winter or warmer than usual? Some sources said cold eastern US, others seemed to show most of the country above normal throughout winter. Not sure which scenatio is more accurate or if I misunderstood?

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Xenon

Looks like an exceptionally warm and dry winter for Texas? :D

Edited by Xenon

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Silas_Sancona
25 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

Thanks for sharing. So for South Florida, would it be a typical winter or warmer than usual? Some sources said cold eastern US, others seemed to show most of the country above normal throughout winter. Not sure which scenatio is more accurate or if I misunderstood?

The first set of maps i linked to detail the 8 or so models used to look at the overall pattern per time period.  As you'll notice,  some may lean warmer/ drier while others might lean wetter/ cooler. In the case of this winter, many of the maps lean drier ..and/or warmer..  -on average/ compared to average-  each month which would follow the suggested *overall* pattern most forecasters would use when forecasting for the months ahead. " Majority rules " is how you'd generally interpret the data, though i always keep an eye on the outliers as well since one or two models can " hint " at something that 6 or 7 models might not pick up on until later, say when the next update is posted ( usually around the 6th of each month ) A good example of that:  This summer was split down the middle here in regards to how our Monsoon season might go but, it was the really dry data on a few of the 8 models, which had appeared early on, that turned out to be correct for how hot and dry it ended up being. Serves as a good lesson in " Never completely dismiss a forecast that goes against the prevailing thought ".. It could turn out to be the one that is correct.

To that point, it doesn't take much to change things up a bit in X part of the country.. Polar Vortex, or some other global circulation in the atmosphere decides to throw out a few surprises.. leading, to say, a rouge hard -to -predict pattern which ends up dumping more rain than predicted in say S. Cal. for a week or two in December or Jan. which could lessen the total impact of the current " drier than normal " winter forecast. 

Being a La Nina year, and looking more moderate - strength atm,  the suggestion of drier/ warmer across the southern half of the country ( Florida inc. ) is the most likely outcome, even if there are a few cool spells, days it rains heavily slipped in between the overall warmth / dryness of the 4 month period ahead..  With that,  above average warmth depicted in the " Temperature Maps " doesn't mean it would stay in the 80s, w/no lows below say 40 across Florida ( or here ) the entire winter.  Just means the chances are better you won't see a cold or cold/wet winter.

Then again, S. FL had a really warm winter last year.. a forecast like this, at least at this point, may up the chances that part of the state could repeat last winter's warmth, perhaps across more of the state this time around.  Again though, no forecast is set in stone so always be prepared.  As much as a warm winter would be great, looking at no/ very little rain/ snow ahead, after no rain this summer is a tough trade off here. Won't be surprised if most of the state is in the dark red " Exceptional Drought " category  by April/May next year if this winter ends up as dry as currently suggested.

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chinandega81

Thanks for interpreting the data for me!

Did Phx get any monsoon rains at all this season?

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Silas_Sancona
32 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

Thanks for interpreting the data for me!

Did Phx get any monsoon rains at all this season?

Phoenix, at Sky harbor got 1.00", for the ENTIRE July-Sept. season.. .10" of that fell on one day, the other .90" fell in less than 2 hours, a couple weeks later.. and that was it. That night ..and on a couple others, a few ( and i mean ..a few, lol ) neighborhoods on the west/northwest side of town recorded decent rain, but overall, storms were very few and far between this summer here.. despite the one bigger event that made the news, making it seem like we'd got slammed.  Watched that storm as it approached and have never seen a storm that looked that strong completely fizzle out before reaching where i'm at in Chandler, despite the fact that it was snapping trees/ dumping over/ just southeast of downtown Phoenix.

If you take a look at the "Season of Fire and Rain " thread i put together for this years' Monsoon season, you can see how the rest of the state did this summer.. In a nutshell, it was bad/ real bad pretty much everywhere, even up in the Mountains/ Rim, and the Southern/Southeastern corner of the state where they actually saw some decent rain in spots a few times.  Yuma didn't see a drop of rain, all summer.  Have to check, if i can find the totals from the event, but think the rain that accompanied the Lightning storms that started all the fires up in/around the San Francisco Bay Area may have dropped more rainfall in a few spots than many places saw here.. Pretty crazy. 

While i'll be back in CA. when the start of next years monsoon season approaches, already crossing my fingers the pendulum swings the other way and next summer is super wet across AZ, and the rest of the region.. The only thing i think that will keep things even here -for now- water-wise, is the fact that last winter was a bit wetter than expected. All bets are off if this ..and last summers' busted Monsoon are the start of a super dry longer term pattern.  Have heard some talk the Southwest Monsoon boom/ bust cycles run approx 5 years. Last above average year for the Monsoon was back in 2015, even though 2018 seemed pretty decent.

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chinandega81

I think is AZ had heaviery, more consistent and widespread monsoons it would be amazing. Granted some years they are good and in some parts they are quite impressive...the SW part of the state near Yuma almost always misses out. As well as much of SE California.  

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PalmTreeDude

I just hope my Mediterranean Fan Palm won’t get damaged this winter again! I got to experience a solid zone 8a (maybe even 8b?) winter last year and I like it! 

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AnTonY
On 10/11/2020 at 4:44 PM, Xenon said:

Looks like an exceptionally warm and dry winter for Texas? :D

The state is overdue for one, to be quite honest.

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GottmitAlex

https://fox5sandiego.com/news/border-report/forecasters-calling-for-drier-warmer-winter-in-southwest-states-due-to-la-nina/

SAN DIEGO (Border Report) — The weather phenomenon known as “La Niña” is shaping up in the Pacific Ocean along the equator south of Hawaii, according to Alex Tardy of the National Weather Service.

Typically, it means less rain and warmer temperatures during the winter in states like California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.

Temperatures, on average, will rise a few degrees than normal throughout the winter months and into the spring.

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Silas_Sancona

Latest update from Judah Cohen/ AER: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


A couple other thoughts as we enter the final month of the year ( May it fly by as fast as possible, if not faster, lol.. ):

* Sun reaches it's lowest angle for the year, Dec. 13th-28th at 118deg at Sunrise, and 242deg at Sunset, at least here in Phoenix/Chandler.

* While the sun starts setting later each day after the 8th,  Sun continues to rise later until Jan. 16th.

Cool, but not cold so far.. " winter-flowering things " are getting ready to take the stage.. Could use some rain, but otherwise good weather to close out a soon -to -be -forgotten 2020.











 

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