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Jimbean

Koppen climate projections

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Silas_Sancona
13 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

Very interesting,  ..especially with what could happen in Florida, Texas,  ..and the rest of the Southwest/ Pac. N.W. .. Some of these changes are already being seen. Thanks for sharing. 

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Silas_Sancona

@Jimbean  -And anyone else- A coupe articles i thought you might be interested in looking over, + a re- link to a study i'd posted in another thread:

Once back in California, going to be watching to see what other tropical-esque sea critters move north next. 2 species in particular, the Sally Lightfoot Crab, and the Gulf Ghost Crab ( Similar to the one common on the beaches there in FL. ) have both been documented moving north along the Baja coast in recent years, Following another warmth-loving Crab Sp.  ( One of the Mexican Fiddler Crabs ) that recently started establishing itself around Southern CA.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/column-sharks-moving-north-redwood-growth-slowing-mosquitoes-biting-—-this-is-californias-altered-state/ar-BB19d13p?li=BBnbfcL

The second article, and the link to the maps tell a very interesting story of what may lie ahead for the Mogollon Rim/ Sky Island Mountain ranges here in AZ/New Mexico.. The Rockies, & Sierra Nevada/ Cascades.. Dramatic changes like this have already been observed in parts of New Mexico after similarly- severe Fire events earlier on in the 2000's. Big fires around the same time period in the mountains east of  Coastal San Diego county may have also permanently altered the vegetation type there as well..
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/13/911935457/as-wildfires-grow-more-intense-iconic-western-forests-may-not-come-back?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=atc&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20200914

https://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/impacts/biology/veg_chg_model/
 

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ColdBonsai

Mmmm... very interesting. Looks like the west is going to go through some dramatic changes.

Another interesting map that projects USDA zones for 2040:

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/23/climate/plant-hardiness-zones-shifting.html

 According to the koppen map projections you posted it looks like my area could potentially become a hot summer Mediterranean climate and a USDA zone 8... which after all the fires in the area this year I'm not so sure that's a good thing.

I'm gonna have to call myself HotBonsai.

Edited by ColdBonsai
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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, ColdBonsai said:

Mmmm... very interesting. Looks like the west is going to go through some dramatic changes.

Another interesting map that projects USDA zones for 2040:

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/23/climate/plant-hardiness-zones-shifting.html

 According to the koppen map projections you posted it looks like my area could potentially become a hot summer Mediterranean climate and a USDA zone 8... which after all the fires in the area this year I'm not so sure that's a good thing.

I'm gonna have to call myself HotBonsai.

:floor:   HotBonsai.. A stage name, maybe?.. 

As for your link.. You can read -it if you scroll down real fast, before the pay wall blocks you out..  Gotta love them darn things :evil:

Had read an article related to the fires up there last week and the challenges of trying to save what is left of the Palouse Prairie, and adjacent forest in the face of potential, major shifts in local vegetation.

Of all The scenarios listed in the link  Jim shared, the A2 is pretty crazy, but sadly plausible.. All of S. Cal basically sliding into a " Hot Desert " Koppen designation.. What forests exist in the local mountains there essentially disappearing.. And Florida.. Is that a " Hot Arid Climate " ( Bsh )  designation suggested across most of the west central part of the state, ..by sometime near/ after 2100?..  That's what the a large section of the Upper Sonoran Desert eco-region, ( Foothills North, east/ southeast of Phoenix/ all areas around Tucson/ south of there ) is currently designated.

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RedRabbit
11 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

:floor:   HotBonsai.. A stage name, maybe?.. 

As for your link.. You can read -it if you scroll down real fast, before the pay wall blocks you out..  Gotta love them darn things :evil:

Had read an article related to the fires up there last week and the challenges of trying to save what is left of the Palouse Prairie, and adjacent forest in the face of potential, major shifts in local vegetation.

Of all The scenarios listed in the link  Jim shared, the A2 is pretty crazy, but sadly plausible.. All of S. Cal basically sliding into a " Hot Desert " Koppen designation.. What forests exist in the local mountains there essentially disappearing.. And Florida.. Is that a " Hot Arid Climate " ( Bsh )  designation suggested across most of the west central part of the state, ..by sometime near/ after 2100?..  That's what the a large section of the Upper Sonoran Desert eco-region, ( Foothills North, east/ southeast of Phoenix/ all areas around Tucson/ south of there ) is currently designated.

Try the link again in an incognito window. I didn’t get the paywall and I suspect you’re over their monthly limit for free NYT articles.

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RedRabbit
5 hours ago, Jimbean said:

Thanks for sharing, they’re definitely interesting! I’m personally skeptical about seeing an extensive part of FL as tropical. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Try the link again in an incognito window. I didn’t get the paywall and I suspect you’re over their monthly limit for free NYT articles.

:greenthumb:  Thanks Red.  Good map, though a touch conservative in some respects..

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palmsOrl
On 9/19/2020 at 3:10 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Very interesting,  ..especially with what could happen in Florida, Texas,  ..and the rest of the Southwest/ Pac. N.W. .. Some of these changes are already being seen. Thanks for sharing. 

According to those projections, a tropical climate will make it to Orlando by 2100.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Executive Airport’s observations qualify that location as such a decade or two sooner.

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Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

According to those projections, a tropical climate will make it to Orlando by 2010.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Executive Airport’s observations qualify that location a decade or two sooner.

Will be interesting to see what happens over the next -say 20 years- or so for sure.. The maps start the clock at 2030, but also think it may have already started ticking.

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Texyn

In a natural climactic state, Rome, and many other prominent cities in the Italian South, like Naples, Bari, Palermo, etc, would exhibit the same amount of winter warmth and stability as Subtropical India, perhaps even more-so. In the times with long absences of cold fronts in the Italian South, the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara are the sole influences, and the warmth of those bodies of water causes corresponding warm humid temps in the Italian South even in the dead of winter; after cold front passages, winter lows in the Coastal Italian South climb to the point that they can be as high as 60s, and stay that way unless interrupted by the next cold front.

The deal is, a weather phenomenon known as the Dry Epoch has perturbed the jetstream in a way that causes a propensity towards westward rising, and eastward dipping, hence the occurrences of a warm France, Spain, and the UK, and a frigid Italy, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, etc. these past few winters. This weather phenomenon has existed for long enough to skew temperature averages towards being below normal for all areas in the region via cold snaps. The dissipation of this event (which has slowly been occurring since the 90s, but not without a few hiccups in strength here, and there) would allow for such natural, nigh-tropical conditions described to once again exist in those Italian cities, with such warmth and stability even extending inland to places like L'Aquila, Florence, Potenza, Foggia, etc.

As far as Catania goes, the place, along with the rest of Sicily, exhibits a warmer winter climate than Morocco in its natural climactic state, and would have a warm subtropical climate once the Dry Epoch dissipates; this southern part of Italy, along with the Lampedusa, and Malta, is one of the few parts of Europe where coconut palms can be grown outdoors reliably.

 

Edited by Texyn

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greysrigging
1 hour ago, Texyn said:

In a natural climactic state, Rome, and many other prominent cities in the Italian South, like Naples, Bari, Palermo, etc, would exhibit the same amount of winter warmth and stability as Subtropical India, perhaps even more-so. In the times with long absences of cold fronts in the Italian South, the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara are the sole influences, and the warmth of those bodies of water causes corresponding warm humid temps in the Italian South even in the dead of winter; after cold front passages, winter lows in the Coastal Italian South climb to the point that they can be as high as 60s, and stay that way unless interrupted by the next cold front.

The deal is, a weather phenomenon known as the Dry Epoch has perturbed the jetstream in a way that causes a propensity towards westward rising, and eastward dipping, hence the occurrences of a warm France, Spain, and the UK, and a frigid Italy, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, etc. these past few winters. This weather phenomenon has existed for long enough to skew temperature averages towards being below normal for all areas in the region via cold snaps. The dissipation of this event (which has slowly been occurring since the 90s, but not without a few hiccups in strength here, and there) would allow for such natural, nigh-tropical conditions described to once again exist in those Italian cities, with such warmth and stability even extending inland to places like L'Aquila, Florence, Potenza, Foggia, etc.

As far as Catania goes, the place, along with the rest of Sicily, exhibits a warmer winter climate than Morocco in its natural climactic state, and would have a warm subtropical climate once the Dry Epoch dissipates; this southern part of Italy, along with the Lampedusa, and Malta, is one of the few parts of Europe where coconut palms can be grown outdoors reliably.

 

Care to post up some supporting evidence, stats etc so we can have a bit of a look at these claims ?

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greysrigging

The far north of Australia is tipped to become warmer and wetter due to projected climate change.
And more extreme type days, temperatures and rainfall.
The annual averages  at Darwin have increased by about 0.7c since 1950 and almost 1.0c since 1910.
We have way more extreme heat days ( ie +35c ) in the last 20 years compared to earlier decade temps ( back to 1942 )
The increased rainfall figures ( on average about 120mm/150mm since 1950 ) has meant more cloudier days and lower max temps during the 'Wet Season', therefore similar average temps despite the greater number of extreme heat days.

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Texyn
1 hour ago, greysrigging said:

Care to post up some supporting evidence, stats etc so we can have a bit of a look at these claims ?

There is plenty of scientific literature detailing the Dry Epoch over Europe being caused by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; Google books, especially, is rife with them. I will post some soon.

The thing is, though, that unlike you amateur climatologists, I am actually utilizing a sense of strategy in my argument, a road-map to be specific. I first start out by refuting and debunking the claims of the opposition, then I build up my own argument. In this case, I am refuting the idea that the Italian South is the subtropical climate in Europe most prone to cold by providing evidence of the fact that pure tropical, and tender plants and animals are able to range naturally into the region, and wouldn't be able to do so if the arctic outbreaks were always "severe" in Italy.

You amateur climatologists constantly claim that the Italian South really is colder than other subtropical climates in Europe, yet such a claim is never explicitly stated in any scientific literature whatsoever.

Edited by Texyn

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Hombre de Palmas

Data tells us that it is indeed getting warmer in most locations. The wildcard is that anomalous cold spell, or season, that would cause even more havoc than in preceding decades, before warmer temperatures encouraged tropical vegetation and agriculture to spread farther north.

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Jimbean

There may be some wishful thinking here

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Jimbean

This is a huge difference within 100 years.  One of these maps show Detroit within a Mediterranean climate within a human lifetime. 

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palmsOrl
On 9/19/2020 at 8:04 PM, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for sharing, they’re definitely interesting! I’m personally skeptical about seeing an extensive part of FL as tropical. 

Yeah, I am somewhat too.  Orlando is around 16C in its coldest month currently so the area would have to see an increase of 2C to become officially “tropical”.  I could see this happening in 80 years’ time between the expanding urban heat island and perhaps other changes to the local climate over the aforementioned period of time.

The urban heat island alone could bring about the necessary temperature increase in the future.  Some of the largest US cities see 10F differences between downtown and nearby rural areas on cold (radiational cooling) nights.  The impact on average lows would of course be less but still...

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Silas_Sancona
5 hours ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Data tells us that it is indeed getting warmer in most locations. The wildcard is that anomalous cold spell, or season, that would cause even more havoc than in preceding decades, before warmer temperatures encouraged tropical vegetation and agriculture to spread farther north.

Agree w/ you on this.. That said, it could be those quick, wacky cold spells that occur between extended and, steadily warmer ( and/or drier )  periods that help accelerate things in different areas.. And not just on land either..  In one of the articles, the crazy " record warm then suddenly cold, them warm again " swings in temperature have been solidly documented off California, and the entire west coast.. This summer was a really good example of that.

For anything that is intolerant of such swings/ likes consistently cool/cold conditions, they will either die off locally, or completely abandon that territory and head north as quickly as possible..  Which opens up more territory as warmer episodes extend over longer periods and entice species that tolerate those swings better, or those which like it warmer, to greatly extend their territories further and further north.. Such scenarios are already happening.

Really interested to see what happens during the next mega -El Nino that anchors 72-80F SST's/ completely shuts down the Upwelling cycle off off the CA and the west coast for an entire summer/ fall, and maintains " warm" SST's -say temps in the low/mid 60's longer.  Yes these " boom/ bust " cycles happen, but when you're already under stress due to things steadily warming, -without the added warming, that extends for longer periods, you'll eventually give up or head somewhere better suited to your survival.  Might happen slower on land, but is occurring without a doubt.

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RedRabbit
30 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Yeah, I am somewhat too.  Orlando is around 16C in its coldest month currently so the area would have to see an increase of 2C to become officially “tropical”.  I could see this happening in 80 years’ time between the expanding urban heat island and perhaps other changes to the local climate over the aforementioned period of time.

The urban heat island alone could bring about the necessary temperature increase in the future.  Some of the largest US cities see 10F differences between downtown and nearby rural areas on cold (radiational cooling) nights.  The impact on average lows would of course be less but still...

My theory is places like Orlando don’t have much to gain from this point forward because they’ve already become urban. The heat island can expand outwards, but how much more can really be expected from the urban core? 
 

Further, I think latitude is more important than commonly appreciated. Sanibel and Anna Maria have roughly the same winter lows, but Sanibel looks fully tropical while Anna Maria isn’t quite there. The extra 100 miles south makes a difference. 

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palmsOrl

I guess when considering the urban heat island, I figure that the further outward the urban heat island extends and the denser the development, the greater the effect might be on the temperatures, particularly the temperatures on colder nights.  So as development continues outward from downtown and already developed areas become more densely developed, the urban heat island effect of Orlando (and other cities for which the same is true) could see further increases in...intensity/magnitude.

I have read that the urban heat island effect tends to be more pronounced in general the further one moves from the equator.  So, Orlando’s relatively close distance to the equator versus the majority of cities on earth means the urban heat island effect in general should be relatively small in magnitude versus the majority of other large cities on earth.

One random comment about the urban heat island effect of Orlando that I have noticed.  The effect is noticeable year round as the downtown reporting station is consistently warmer in the evening and in the morning and a tad hotter during the afternoon than reporting stations further from downtown.

As far as the climate warming overtime (why ever that may be, not bringing up AGW here) and said warming’s effects on the climate zones, I believe that significant warming of the earth’s climate as a whole would lead to an earth that can support tropical climates further from the equator.  Therefore, the expectation that the tropics climatologically-speaking would move northward, far into Central Florida, may be a realistic expectation if the expected future warming of the earth occurs (the cause of the warming could simply be the upswing portion of a natural multi-centurial cycle, but I think there might be another reason or combination of reasons).

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Jimbean
14 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

As far as the climate warming overtime (why ever that may be, not bringing up AGW here) and said warming’s effects on the climate zones, I believe that significant warming of the earth’s climate as a whole would lead to an earth that can support tropical climates further from the equator.  Therefore, the expectation that the tropics climatologically-speaking would move northward, far into Central Florida, may be a realistic expectation if the expected future warming of the earth occurs (the cause of the warming could simply be the upswing portion of a natural multi-centurial cycle, but I think there might be another reason or combination of reasons).

The trend can also go the other way too. 

What makes these maps interesting, from my point of view is how they look considering such and such scenario.  What I would also like to see are maps that project what zones could looks like if the earth were to cool down.

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Silas_Sancona
37 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

 

 I believe that significant warming of the earth’s climate as a whole would lead to an earth that can support tropical climates further from the equator.  Therefore, the expectation that the tropics climatologically-speaking would move northward, far into Central Florida, may be a realistic expectation if the expected future warming of the earth occurs (the cause of the warming could simply be the upswing portion of a natural multi-centurial cycle, but I think there might be another reason or combination of reasons).

Would have to find the article again but something i read through not long ago mentions how, under current warming, the wet, "tropical belt" that straddles the Equator is actually showing signs of retracting.. Keep burning the Amazon and that might not even matter.. Anyway, I'd also have thought this belt would expand north/south as well but guess not. Then again, we'll just have to see. At least what changes may occur in our life time. Too bad we can't live for a few thousand years, lol.

@Jimbean  As far as your question regarding how things might look if cooler, Studies of Pack Rat Middens have already shown what the climate looked like several thousands of years ago. For one, the Pinyon/Juniper woodlands you see up in the mountains of the Southwest ( would be USDA zones 6-8 ), were the core vegetation here in Phoenix.. Creosote bush barely survived north of the US/Mex border. Saguaro and Palo Verde were displaced far south in Mexico. Low elevation areas of CA. were supposedly dominated by Oak/ Dwarf Cypress Woodlands around the same time ( Also roughly an 6-8 USDA zone designation currently )..

Interesting how fossilized layers of Rat Pee could tell us about the climate.. The preservation aspect is so good that researchers can id what plants pollen samples came from, to a tee. Then, of course, there are tree rings, cored sediment samples, ice.. etc to examine/ extrapolate info from..

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palmsOrl

Silas, yes, so what we might end up with is the expansion of drier tropical climates, including tropical deserts, poleward on the earth’s land areas.  Existing areas of rainforests (and areas of Tropical Rainforest climates) might shrink and certain rainforests (and areas of Tropical Rainforest climates) might disappear altogether while the areas that newly qualify as tropical (climate-wise) may likely be disproportionately semi-arid and arid.  It is easy to forget that the designation of a “tropical climate” is itself based on average temperatures, not precipitation.  Therein, the subdivisions based on total annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation distribution delineate: Tropical Desert, Tropical Savannah, Tropical Monsoon and Tropical Rainforest climates (not an exhaustive list of Köppen tropical climate sub-types).

Jim, I know that I have come across maps of what the climate zones (and/or biomes) were estimated to have looked like during the peak of the most recent Ice Age as well as during the Little Ice Age and the Midieval Warm Period.

If I recall correctly, from the map for the peak of the last Ice Age, the biome of Central Florida was temperate forest and the boreal zones came down quite far into the Deep South region.  Also, I believe the map showed Cuba as temperate and the rest of the Caribbean tropical.  The Amazon Rainforest was a bit smaller than it is currently, but for the most part, the equatorial tropics saw a fairly similar makeup to the climates and biomes found there currently.  This is just from memory and as we all know, that is not perfect. 

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chinandega81

Florida looks to take a turn for the hot, dry turn. I think we have seen this trend start already. Winters tend to see record warm temperatures and are quite dry, even for the dry season. Even during our rainy season, we can go 10 days without rain. The typical daily storms are much more erratic and dispersed and we see rain now from systems or disturbances that move in and dump heavy localized rain.  Much less more predictability.  I could easily imagine the tropical line moving into Central Florida...but with an intense drying to come with it. I imagine Florida would look similar to eastern Cuba nowadays. With our sandy soil it would get hot and dry here fast. 

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kinzyjr
32 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

Florida looks to take a turn for the hot, dry turn. I think we have seen this trend start already. Winters tend to see record warm temperatures and are quite dry, even for the dry season. Even during our rainy season, we can go 10 days without rain. The typical daily storms are much more erratic and dispersed and we see rain now from systems or disturbances that move in and dump heavy localized rain.  Much less more predictability.  I could easily imagine the tropical line moving into Central Florida...but with an intense drying to come with it. I imagine Florida would look similar to eastern Cuba nowadays. With our sandy soil it would get hot and dry here fast. 

Looks like those Medemia argun I planted are going to be in heaven if they last 50 years. :)

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palmsOrl
6 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Florida looks to take a turn for the hot, dry turn. I think we have seen this trend start already. Winters tend to see record warm temperatures and are quite dry, even for the dry season. Even during our rainy season, we can go 10 days without rain. The typical daily storms are much more erratic and dispersed and we see rain now from systems or disturbances that move in and dump heavy localized rain.  Much less more predictability.  I could easily imagine the tropical line moving into Central Florida...but with an intense drying to come with it. I imagine Florida would look similar to eastern Cuba nowadays. With our sandy soil it would get hot and dry here fast. 

Agreed.

I think the southern two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula having a Tropical Savannah climate while a thin section of Southeast Florida remaining Tropical Monsoon looks realistic.  It appears that the extant small area of Tropical Rainforest climate all but disappears on that climate model rendering by 2100.  No surprise there.

As I have discussed in other threads, I have also noticed the same about our rain patterns, more erratic.  It would be really interesting to see a map depicting the difference in the average annual rainfall for the State of Florida from, say, 1990-2020 or 1970-2020.  I remember seeing one map at some point that showed that West Central Florida north of Tampa and to near the Big Bend had seen a significant decrease in annual average rainfall, though I cannot recall the timeframe utilized.

As far as current rainfall averages for the state, I have a few comments based on the the below map, published by:

https://www.tripsavvy.com/florida-climate-and-weather-1513648

E0E9CD80-C2A3-4738-B4B2-9C43096E6630.thumb.png.fd0b09a4c4eade2cc69330d7aaa331eb.png

First, based on the above map, if a small part of Southeast Florida has a Tropical Rainforest climate, why doesn’t most of Northwest Florida have a Subtropical Rainforest climate.  I am pretty sure, for example, that there are subtropical rainforests in Southern Queensland, Australia and Northern NSW that get every bit as cold in the winter as NW Florida (minus the extremes).  I would have to fact check this though.

My understanding is that Key West, FL is the driest land area of Florida, receiving around 40” of rain a year.  Keep that Cyrtostachys renda in a tub of water!  According to the above map, the central portion of Lake Okeechobee sees as little as 34” of annual rainfall, truly the driest spot in the State of Florida.  I just find that fact notable and interesting.  

Finally, I find it surprising that most of the spine of the state is drier than areas further east and west, generally speaking.  I would have thought that the spine would get more due to sea breeze collisions, but perhaps these robust summer sea breeze collisions right in/near the center of the state are the exception rather than the rule.  We certainly had very few days this summer where you had that big fat line of red on the radar suddenly form from near Western Lake Okeechobee to Ocala/Gainesville.  I guess the areas closer to both coasts tend to get rain on days where the sea breeze is weaker and only makes it a ways inland and also on days with the collision, as the storms move back toward the coast(s).

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chinandega81
3 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Agreed.

I think the southern two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula having a Tropical Savannah climate while a thin section of Southeast Florida remaining Tropical Monsoon looks realistic.  It appears that the extant small area of Tropical Rainforest climate all but disappears on that climate model rendering by 2100.  No surprise there.

As I have discussed in other threads, I have also noticed the same about our rain patterns, more erratic.  It would be really interesting to see a map depicting the difference in the average annual rainfall for the State of Florida from, say, 1990-2020 or 1970-2020.  I remember seeing one map at some point that showed that West Central Florida north of Tampa and to near the Big Bend had seen a significant decrease in annual average rainfall, though I cannot recall the timeframe utilized.

As far as current rainfall averages for the state, I have a few comments based on the the below map, published by:

https://www.tripsavvy.com/florida-climate-and-weather-1513648

 

First, based on the above map, if a small part of Southeast Florida has a Tropical Rainforest climate, why doesn’t most of Northwest Florida have a Subtropical Rainforest climate.  I am pretty sure, for example, that there are subtropical rainforests in Southern Queensland, Australia and Northern NSW that get every bit as cold in the winter as NW Florida (minus the extremes).  I would have to fact check this though.

My understanding is that Key West, FL is the driest land area of Florida, receiving around 40” of rain a year.  Keep that Cyrtostachys renda in a tub of water!  According to the above map, the central portion of Lake Okeechobee sees as little as 34” of annual rainfall, truly the driest spot in the State of Florida.  I just find that fact notable and interesting.  

Finally, I find it surprising that most of the spine of the state is drier than areas further east and west, generally speaking.  I would have thought that the spine would get more due to sea breeze collisions, but perhaps these robust summer sea breeze collisions right in/near the center of the state are the exception rather than the rule.  We certainly had very few days this summer where you had that big fat line of red on the radar suddenly form from near Western Lake Okeechobee to Ocala/Gainesville.  I guess the areas closer to both coasts tend to get rain on days where the sea breeze is weaker and only makes it a ways inland and also on days with the collision, as the storms move back toward the coast(s).

I always assumed the same about more rain in the interior as well. By the coast, it is bone dry while 10 miles or so inland there is a noteable increase in rain and storm activity. What I never realized is, beyond that point, the population drops off so there are fewer reporting stations and cities. On the radar it looks like it gets slammed very consistently regardless of the weather pattern...and I think that is in fact the case. But what I also note is that coastal areas get much more rain from ocean showers throughout the year as well as when a tropical disturbance is nearby. That is enough to bump up the coastal area precip by 10 to 15 inches or so throughout the year. 

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palmsOrl

I thought the exact same thing.  I think the coast makes up for some of what would be an even drier local climate by getting the ocean showers and the coastal areas definitely get more nighttime rain.  Go down to about Port Saint Lucie, or Vero Beach southward on the Florida East Coast and random ocean showers can occur anytime of the day just about year round.  This is especially pronounced in a strip from around Jupiter south to just north of Miami, where the Tropical Rainforest climate is located.  When I see a large-scale radar map for the whole state, if there is rain nowhere else, there are often a few showers affecting somewhere within this area, anytime of year.

As far as the whole subtropical Rainforest subject, I can only guess that the climate of Northwest Florida does not qualify because the seasonal amplitude of temperatures is too great.  In otherwards, you go from, say 93F/70F in July to 63F//37F in January in NW Florida, whereas the temperatures in a subtropical rainforest might be more like 76F/62F in July and 61F/48F in January.

On a somewhat related note, there is an area of temperate Rainforest in the Appalachians in the Smoky Mountains/Blue Ridge Mountains.  Portions of the Appalachian temperate Rainforest can be found in five states.  I have been there and it is undoubtedly a rainforest, more lush, wet and slimy than any forest I have ever been to in Florida. 

-Michael

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Estlander

It looks like Destin on the panhandle is ahead of times. People are already planting Bottle palms. Lol

89682142-0C31-474D-B75B-1EB20F8B5AD0.jpeg

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Jimbean
4 hours ago, Estlander said:

It looks like Destin on the panhandle is ahead of times. People are already planting Bottle palms. Lol

89682142-0C31-474D-B75B-1EB20F8B5AD0.jpeg

No they're just inexperienced with plants and climate. 

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bubba

Texyn,

To us rank amateur climatologists, do you speak of Coconut palms in South South Italy to the shores of Malta during the reign of Cicero or before? Does your ingenious strategy subsume the Mini Ice Ages experienced from 1400-1814, when the Thames froze 26 times. Was the South South of Italy and shores of Malta immune and bulletproof during this episode? All I ask is one picture of your claimed Coconut palms. I thank you in advance for your efforts...

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palmsOrl
6 hours ago, Estlander said:

It looks like Destin on the panhandle is ahead of times. People are already planting Bottle palms. Lol

89682142-0C31-474D-B75B-1EB20F8B5AD0.jpeg

Those are lovely, but will be looking rough by the New Year (possibly worse).  If within a  stone’s throw of the ocean, they might possibly survive one mild winter, but would not be completely healthy yet for the next, mild or not.

Also, the chilly winter breeze off the ocean from November to March will take a major toll too, whether the temperature is subfreezing (or even below 45F or not).  I don’t see many healthy looking tropical palms within view of the ocean even in Central Florida (except Cocos nucifera in the southern half).  Royals and Ptychosperma, etc. tend to look wind-burnt, but some of this is due to the salt in the air.

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Texyn
On 9/23/2020 at 2:03 AM, bubba said:

Texyn,

To us rank amateur climatologists, do you speak of Coconut palms in South South Italy to the shores of Malta during the reign of Cicero or before? Does your ingenious strategy subsume the Mini Ice Ages experienced from 1400-1814, when the Thames froze 26 times. Was the South South of Italy and shores of Malta immune and bulletproof during this episode? All I ask is one picture of your claimed Coconut palms. I thank you in advance for your efforts...

This dichotomy is all due to a phenomenon due to the Cold Epoch.

The abnormal weather pattern perturbs the jet stream in a way that causes a prevailing tendency towards dipping in the East, and rising in the West, causing cold, and warmth, respectively. Such weather phenomenons have occurred on other continents and locations in history, such one over North America in the early modern period, known as the Little Ice Age, when even cities in Texas, saw blizzards every year. In the not too distant past, during the time of the Little Ice Age, the UK and France was noted to get very cold; it was to the point that the Thames in London froze over, having regular snowfall, and hanging icicles as far South along the coast as even Nice, and London had a climate like present day Stockholm.

In a natural climactic state, the Italian South would be very, very warm; such a time occurred during the era of the Etruscan civilization, when even places as far inland and north as Florence and Genoa had nigh 365 day growing seasons.Elements of this can be seen during winter, where coastal  Italian South cities end up having nights where low temps are 60F and above, practically tropical levels, even in the middle of January. Such warm, muggy conditions happen due to warm Mediterranean influence, and it would prevail if not for interruption by cold fronts. Furthermore, check out how easily organisms from the tropics are able to live in the Italian South; the rose-ringed parakeet, for instance, native to tropical Africa and Asia, where freezing temps are unknown, is, yet, able to become an invasive species in the Italian South, is indicative of just how warm the climate is. Coral reefs off the Italian South's waters constitute the third largest coral system in the world. Flamingoes, ocelots, jaguars, parrots, manatees, anhingas, lizards, and African vultures all range into the Italian South, all tropical species able to survive in the region, indicative of the true warmth. In addition, tropical plants like Bromeliads(such as Pineapple), mangroves, water hyacinth, mahogany trees, and coconut palms all can be found ranging into the Italian South. With Sicily, Lampedusa and Malta, Italy, in its natural climactic state has a TROPICAL climate OUTSIDE of the tropics. Not only is that a rarity on Earth, it is also quite far from the latitude in comparison to most other continents.

Subtropical jungles in Lazio:

3_Faggete__Sasso_Fratino_3__N._Agostini_

Peneda-Geres-NP-%C2%A9-PGNP-Archives-2-3

https://as1.ftcdn.net/jpg/02/94/34/28/500_F_294342898_GqZdxRfyeaYE6zbgVlGKZNYkwV7By2N5.jpg

Edited by Texyn
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greysrigging
19 minutes ago, Texyn said:

This dichotomy is all due to a phenomenon due to the Cold Epoch.

The abnormal weather pattern perturbs the jet stream in a way that causes a prevailing tendency towards dipping in the East, and rising in the West, causing cold, and warmth, respectively. Such weather phenomenons have occurred on other continents and locations in history, such one over North America in the early modern period, known as the Little Ice Age, when even cities in Texas, saw blizzards every year. In the not too distant past, during the time of the Little Ice Age, the UK and France was noted to get very cold; it was to the point that the Thames in London froze over, having regular snowfall, and hanging icicles as far South along the coast as even Nice, and London had a climate like present day Stockholm.

In a natural climactic state, the Italian South would be very, very warm; such a time occurred during the era of the Etruscan civilization, when even places as far inland and north as Florence and Genoa had nigh 365 day growing seasons.Elements of this can be seen during winter, where coastal  Italian South cities end up having nights where low temps are 60F and above, practically tropical levels, even in the middle of January. Such warm, muggy conditions happen due to warm Mediterranean influence, and it would prevail if not for interruption by cold fronts. Furthermore, check out how easily organisms from the tropics are able to live in the Italian South; the rose-ringed parakeet, for instance, native to tropical Africa and Asia, where freezing temps are unknown, is, yet, able to become an invasive species in the Italian South, is indicative of just how warm the climate is. Coral reefs off the South's waters constitute the third largest coral system in the world. Flamingoes, ocelots, jaguars, parrots, manatees, anhingas, lizards, and African vultures all range into the Italian South, all tropical species able to survive in the region, indicative of the true warmth. In addition, tropical plants like Bromeliads(such as Pineapple), mangroves, water hyacinth, mahogany trees, and coconut palms all can be found ranging into the Italian South. With Sicily, Lampedusa and Malta, Italy, in its natural climactic state has a TROPICAL climate OUTSIDE of the tropics. Not only is that a rarity on Earth, it is also quite far from the latitude in comparison to most other continents.

C'mon old mate, you've been spouting this BS for several weeks now....now, you got booted from City Data Forums ( Weather ) because they figured you were a troll, and no, you were not copied by someone pretending to be you.... it was you.... the exact same writing style and  and climate, flora and fauna nonsense....even posting up pics from Thailand and claiming them as 'evidence' of so called southern Italian tropicality.
You've been asked previously....put up some scientific peer reviewed ( you do understand what peer reviewed means of course ) documentation validating your theories. It's not that hard...
Now, for example, the rose ringed parakeet ( Indian ringneck ) is a world wide coloniser species.....there are feral breeding populations in London and south eastern UK at 51*N. Not surprised you might have some in Italy..
So stop talking crap and post up some certifiable facts and figures....ie put up or shut up.

Edited by greysrigging
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Silas_Sancona
9 minutes ago, Texyn said:

T
In a natural climactic state, the Italian South would be very, very warm; such a time occurred during the era of the Etruscan civilization, when even places as far inland and north as Florence and Genoa had nigh 365 day growing seasons.Elements of this can be seen during winter, where coastal  Italian South cities end up having nights where low temps are 60F and above, practically tropical levels, even in the middle of January. Such warm, muggy conditions happen due to warm Mediterranean influence, and it would prevail if not for interruption by cold fronts. Furthermore, check out how easily organisms from the tropics are able to live in the Italian South; the rose-ringed parakeet, for instance, native to tropical Africa and Asia, where freezing temps are unknown, is, yet, able to become an invasive species in the Italian South, is indicative of just how warm the climate is. Coral reefs off the Italian South's waters constitute the third largest coral system in the world. Flamingoes, ocelots, jaguars, parrots, manatees, anhingas, lizards, and African vultures all range into the Italian South, all tropical species able to survive in the region, indicative of the true warmth. In addition, tropical plants like Bromeliads(such as Pineapple), mangroves, water hyacinth, mahogany trees, and coconut palms all can be found ranging into the Italian South. With Sicily, Lampedusa and Malta, Italy, in its natural climactic state has a TROPICAL climate OUTSIDE of the tropics. Not only is that a rarity on Earth, it is also quite far from the latitude in comparison to most other continents.

If there are two things that don't.. and never have occurred naturally anywhere in the old world tropics, it is both Ocelots and Jaguar. Both are Feline species which evolved in the new world tropics of the Americas..

 

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greysrigging
Just now, Silas_Sancona said:

If there are two things that don't.. and never have occurred naturally anywhere in the old world tropics, it is both Ocelots and Jaguar. Both are Feline species which evolved in the new world tropics of the Americas..

 

Mate, guy is a troll, was booted from City Data Forums for this exact nonsense.... best not to bother responding methinks.....

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palmsOrl
2 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

If there are two things that don't.. and never have occurred naturally anywhere in the old world tropics, it is both Ocelots and Jaguar. Both are Feline species which evolved in the new world tropics of the Americas..

 

I would have had no idea, but I always enjoy  learning from your posts Silas.

-Michael

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Texyn
1 minute ago, greysrigging said:

C'mon old mate, you've been spouting this BS for several weeks now....now, you got booted from City Data Forums ( Weather ) because they figured you were a troll, and no, you were not copied by someone pretending to be you.... it was you.... the exact same writing style and  and climate, flora and fauna nonsense....even posting up pics from Thailand and claiming them as 'evidence' of so called southern Italian tropicality.
You've been asked previously....put up some scientific peer reviewed ( you do understand what peer reviewed means of course ) documentation validating your theories. It's not that hard...
Now, for example, the rose ringed parakeet ( Indian ringneck ) is a world wide coloniser species.....there are feral breeding populations in London and south eastern UK at 51*N. Not surprised you might have some in Italy..
So stop talking crap and post up some certifiable facts and figures....ie put up or shut up.

How many times to I have to tell you: that poster on CD was a troll impersonating me. 

The Dry Epoch is caused by a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, there are plenty of peer-reviewed studies showing a link between that and precipitation totals and temperatures:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228655245_Climate_impacts_of_the_Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation

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Silas_Sancona
1 minute ago, greysrigging said:

Mate, guy is a troll, was booted from City Data Forums for this exact nonsense.... best not to bother responding methinks.....

Figured that awhile back, but figured i'd throw  the cat-related fact.. 'cuz that one can be backed up, lol.

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