Statistically when your area should be affected by a Tropical Cyclone next

[JLM 540]

Here are the statistics for when the next tropical cyclone will either strike your area, or affect your area. Each city will have its own post, these posts will include the average times between different strengths and the next time that area should be affected. I can only obtain data for large population centers or coastal towns/cities such as Miami, FL or Galveston, TX.

Edited June 17, 2020 by JLM

[JLM 540]

Brownsville, Texas

• Brownsville is brushed or hit every 5 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 18-19 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 49-50 years

Brownsville is 4 years overdue. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Corpus Christi, Texas

• Corpus Christi is brushed or hit every 4 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 13-14 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 24-25 years

Corpus Christi is due in 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Galveston, Texas

• Galveston is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 9-10 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 29-30 years

Galveston is due before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Port Arthur, Texas

• Port Arthur is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 9-10 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 24-25 years

Port Arthur is due before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Cameron, Louisiana

• Cameron is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 9-10 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 37 years

Cameron is due before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Morgan City, Louisiana

• Morgan City is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 8-9 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 24-25 years

Morgan City should be affected before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

New Orleans, Louisiana

• New Orleans is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 14-15 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 37 years

New Orleans should be affected before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Biloxi, Mississippi

• Biloxi is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 9-10 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 37 years

Biloxi should be affected before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Mobile, Alabama

• Mobile is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 9-10 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 29-30 years

Mobile should be affected in 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Pensacola, Florida

• Pensacola is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 7-8 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 14-15 years

Pensacola should be affected in 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Panama City Beach, Florida

• Panama City Beach is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 7-8 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 18-19 years

Panama City Beach should be affected by the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Panacea, Florida

• Panacea is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 10-11 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: No data

Panacea should be affected before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Cedar Key, Florida

• Cedar Key is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 11-12 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 74 years

Cedar Key should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Tampa, Florida

• Tampa is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 10-11 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 37 years

Tampa is 1 year overdue. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Sarasota, Florida

• Sarasota is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 9-10 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 49-50 years

Sarasota should be affected before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Fort Myers, Florida

• Fort Myers is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 8-9 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 16-17 years

Fort Myers should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Key West, Florida

• Key West is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 5-6 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 9-10 years

Key West should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Miami, Florida

• Miami is brushed or hit every 1-2 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 4-5 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 12-13 years

Miami should be affected before the end of 2020. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Melbourne, Florida

• Melbourne is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 7-8 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 21-22 years

Melbourne should be affected before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Daytona Beach, Florida

• Daytona Beach is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 14-15 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 49-50 years

Daytona Beach should be affected before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Jacksonville, Florida

• Jacksonville is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 11-12 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 29-30 years

Jacksonville should be affected before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[Austinpalm 150]

What is the definition of brushed/hit?  Hurricane Harvey passed to the east of Brownsville in the gulf and continued north to Port Aransas in August 2017. I know that South Padre Island ( a suburb of Brownsville-Harlingen) experienced high winds and tides. Just curious what is required to meet the threshold?

[JLM 540]

@Austinpalm

To meet the threshold of being brushed is experiencing tropical storm force winds. To be hit is to have either hurricane force winds or the center passing over or near you.

[JLM 540]

Savannah, Georgia

• Savannah is brushed or hit every 1-2 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 7-8 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 37 years

Savannah should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Charleston, South Carolina

• Charleston is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 10-11 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 49-50 years

Charleston should be affected before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

• Myrtle Beach is brushed or hit every 1-2 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 7-8 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 24-25 years

Myrtle Beach should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Wilmington, North Carolina

• Wilmington is brushed or hit every 1-2 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 6-7 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 29-30 years

Wilmington should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

• Cape Hatteras is brushed or hit every 1-2 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 4-5 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: 16-17 years

Cape Hatteras should be affected before the end of 2021. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Norfolk, Virginia

• Norfolk is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 11-12 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: No data

Norfolk should be affected before the end of 2022. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

Ocean City, Maryland

• Ocean City is brushed or hit every 2-3 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 16-17 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: No data

Ocean City is 3 years overdue. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[PalmatierMeg 5,714]

Tampa is long, long, long overdue for a major hurricane. In 2004 Hurricane Charley was predicted to hit Tampa. The Ft. Myers/Cape Coral area hadn't taken a major hurricane since 1960 (Donna). In spring 2004 a local gadfly newspaper columnist loudly proclaimed that after 44 years gone by Ft. Myers was hurricane proof, then gleefully thumbed his nose at Mother Nature. That was a huge error of human hubris. On Aug 13, 2004 (a Friday!! I believe) we sat in our home office in our shuttered house watching the local newscast to witness Charley slide by on its way to Tampa. Then, with 30 minutes notice Charley made an abrupt right turn and headed ashore. "Wait, that's never happened before," the weatherman on air said, "We're taking a direct hit. Everyone not in a shelter needs to hunker down now - in a closet, a bathroom, hallway. It's too late to run."

Moments later, we lost all electricity - the power company shut the whole region down to prevent fires from arcing lines. As we sat there in the dark, the phone rang (our land line still worked). On the other end was my older son who lived in east Ft Myers with his family.

"Mom," he said, "you have a bullseye on your house."

"Yes, son, I know," I said.

So, Tampa breathed a sigh of relief while Hurricane Charley followed the Peace River and stayed a cat 4 all the way through Arcadia in Central FL and blew apart everything it touched from Port Charlotte to Bonita Springs. Ironically, many residents of Tampa fled southeast to shelter in Arcadia only to face their worst nightmares. You can't fool Mother Nature.

And that blabbermouth newspaper columnist got on his knees to grovel and plead mea culpa. A few months later he retired and hasn't been heard from since.

We came through the hurricane safely all things considered, suffering roof damage and a bit of landscape destruction. In 2005 (yes, that many roofs had to be replaced) after an 11-month wait we made the switch to a metal roof - the FL crackers have the right idea - and I recommend that to anyone who lives in a hurricane zone. More money but is well worth the expense for safety and 50-year life reasons. Our house sailed through Hurricane Irma in 2017. And having loads of palms to block high winds also helped - really.

Tampa waits for the decades-delayed hammer to fall. I hope its luck holds out another year. I also hope the city has no pompous, sneering columnist wanting to take on Mother Nature. 

[JLM 540]

Atlantic City, New Jersey

 

• Atlantic City is brushed or hit every 3-4 years
• Average years between direct hurricane hits: 13-14 years
• Average years between major hurricane strikes: No data

Atlantic City is 2 years overdue. This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year

[JLM 540]

@PalmatierMeg

The roof over my head has leaks everywhere! We are already considering a metal roof just because its less of a struggle to keep up with. There are a few homes with metal roofs in my neighborhood, likely put in after either Ivan 2004 or Dennis 2005. Dennis passed less than 5 miles west of here as category 3. Tampa may very well get that major hurricane its been waiting for for a long time within the next few years. Im sure there are people like that in every city that says things like that. There is also the fear mongerers around everywhere. Half of the fear mongerers live in the central or western US and dont know anything about tropical cyclones. 

[PalmatierMeg 5,714]

3 hours ago, JLM said:

@PalmatierMeg

The roof over my head has leaks everywhere! We are already considering a metal roof just because its less of a struggle to keep up with. There are a few homes with metal roofs in my neighborhood, likely put in after either Ivan 2004 or Dennis 2005. Dennis passed less than 5 miles west of here as category 3. Tampa may very well get that major hurricane its been waiting for for a long time within the next few years. Im sure there are people like that in every city that says things like that. There is also the fear mongerers around everywhere. Half of the fear mongerers live in the central or western US and dont know anything about tropical cyclones. 

Preparation is the key and not losing your head while everyone around you loses theirs. We filled our 5g gas cans for our generator two months ago. Our 1-storey house has a metal hip roof and no gables, ridges, cupolas, dormers or architectural frou-frou that tempts hurricane winds. We got shutters, Miami-Dade rated garage door and our house sits at 15' above sea level in one of the highest elevations in Cape Coral. If storm surge reaches us then all of Cape Coral, Ft. Myers, Sanibel and Bonita Beach will be underwater. We won't be alone.

All that said, at least we see the storms coming, although Charley pulled a fast one. My husband refused to move to CA because of - wait for it - Earthquakes. Something about the ground abruptly opening beneath his feet.... On the other hand parts of central FL (though not Cape Coral, which is built upon dredged up shell rock) are prone to terrifying sinkholes. Score one for shell rock. Many years ago, the San Francisco Chronicle polled its readership on which they preferred to face: Earthquake or Hurricane. Nine out of Ten discriminating San Franciscans chose to do battle with an Earthquake. Back in VA my mother (a native Californian) and I laughed our socks off. She had the advantage of knowing both devils and never once mentioned earthquakes except as abstract generalities. But she never forgot going through Hurricane Hazel in 1954. When I was a kid I viewed tornadoes with trepidation after seeing an episode of Fury in which the kid and his black stallion survive an animated twister (6-year-olds don't get the concept of special effects). But I lived in VA and believed tornadoes attacked only Western states, not the original 13 Colonies. I learned differently in the 1970s when a tornado just missed my childhood home and smashed a Safeway supermarket a couple miles away. Tornadoes have an affinity for SW Cape Coral. In the years we've lived in SE Cape, at least a half dozen have bashed the part of town where the People That Matter live. Who says Mother Nature doesn't have a sense of irony?

[RedRabbit 1,623]

9 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Tampa is long, long, long overdue for a major hurricane. In 2004 Hurricane Charley was predicted to hit Tampa. The Ft. Myers/Cape Coral area hadn't taken a major hurricane since 1960 (Donna). In spring 2004 a local gadfly newspaper columnist loudly proclaimed that after 44 years gone by Ft. Myers was hurricane proof, then gleefully thumbed his nose at Mother Nature. That was a huge error of human hubris. On Aug 13, 2004 (a Friday!! I believe) we sat in our home office in our shuttered house watching the local newscast to witness Charley slide by on its way to Tampa. Then, with 30 minutes notice Charley made an abrupt right turn and headed ashore. "Wait, that's never happened before," the weatherman on air said, "We're taking a direct hit. Everyone not in a shelter needs to hunker down now - in a closet, a bathroom, hallway. It's too late to run."

Moments later, we lost all electricity - the power company shut the whole region down to prevent fires from arcing lines. As we sat there in the dark, the phone rang (our land line still worked). On the other end was my older son who lived in east Ft Myers with his family.

"Mom," he said, "you have a bullseye on your house."

"Yes, son, I know," I said.

So, Tampa breathed a sigh of relief while Hurricane Charley followed the Peace River and stayed a cat 4 all the way through Arcadia in Central FL and blew apart everything it touched from Port Charlotte to Bonita Springs. Ironically, many residents of Tampa fled southeast to shelter in Arcadia only to face their worst nightmares. You can't fool Mother Nature.

And that blabbermouth newspaper columnist got on his knees to grovel and plead mea culpa. A few months later he retired and hasn't been heard from since.

We came through the hurricane safely all things considered, suffering roof damage and a bit of landscape destruction. In 2005 (yes, that many roofs had to be replaced) after an 11-month wait we made the switch to a metal roof - the FL crackers have the right idea - and I recommend that to anyone who lives in a hurricane zone. More money but is well worth the expense for safety and 50-year life reasons. Our house sailed through Hurricane Irma in 2017. And having loads of palms to block high winds also helped - really.

Tampa waits for the decades-delayed hammer to fall. I hope its luck holds out another year. I also hope the city has no pompous, sneering columnist wanting to take on Mother Nature. 

Tampa was forecast to take a direct hit from Irma too before it went into Marco Island. One of these days we will get a major hurricane... With the way 2020 is going so far I’m betting this is the year.

Edited June 18, 2020 by RedRabbit

[Silas_Sancona 4,445]

23 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Tampa was forecast to take a direct hit from Irma too before it went into Marco Island. One of these days we will get a major hurricane... With the way 2020 is going so far I’m betting this is the year.

Naah, lol.. A 2020 Hurricane would barely miss Tampa, and the rest of FL as a high cat 5, Scream due west across the Gulf.. coming ashore right below Brownsville, and stay at cat 3 status as it heads north toward Phoenix after crossing N. Mexico & slamming Nogales and Tucson as a Cat 3..

Yes, "..Entire state of Arizona drowned by major Hurricane.. " is on my Bingo card this year, LOL.

[RedRabbit 1,623]

9 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Naah, lol.. A 2020 Hurricane would barely miss Tampa, and the rest of FL as a high cat 5, Scream due west across the Gulf.. coming ashore right below Brownsville, and stay at cat 3 status as it heads north toward Phoenix after crossing N. Mexico & slamming Nogales and Tucson as a Cat 3..

Yes, "..Entire state of Arizona drowned by major Hurricane.. " is on my Bingo card this year, LOL.

Sounds about right. LOL

I seem to recall Arizona does have some history of hurricanes, but they come in from the Pacific (or Gulf of California.)

[Silas_Sancona 4,445]

7 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Sounds about right. LOL

I seem to recall Arizona does have some history of hurricanes, but they come in from the Pacific (or Gulf of California.)

Yes.. and Yes.. Most are running on fumes by the time they reach the state though. That said, there have been a few that reached the state as a tropical storm, and at least two as tropical depressions, originally spawned in the Atlantic.. Extremely heavy rain events, like Norbert in 2014, are the main results. Damage directly connected to prolonged High winds are much less common.

Same can be said further west in CA.. though there have been a few more close calls w/ minimal hurricanes approaching San Diego, and at least two "significant" tropical storm events there in the past. Can't remember the exact year.. maybe 1992 0r 93?.. a tropical system had just enough steam to reach the outer waters, quite close to Monterey/ Santa Cruz, as a minimal Tropical disturbance.. Generated very light showers and a light southerly breeze through the night as the moisture surge from it passed over San Jose and the rest of the Bay Area.. Might be the furthest north a tropical disturbance has been recorded along the Calif. coast as well..

Believe it or not but on occasion, moisture from easterly wave activity generated in the Atlantic/ Caribbean Basin ..if strong enough.. can even bring elevated showers / thunder to central California/ Bay Area if the circulation pattern in the atmosphere is set up just right over the west / southwest.

[mdsonofthesouth 525]

On 6/17/2020 at 1:24 PM, JLM said:

@Austinpalm

To meet the threshold of being brushed is experiencing tropical storm force winds. To be hit is to have either hurricane force winds or the center passing over or near you.

By that definition we here in MD get brushed nearly every year it feels like

Edited June 19, 2020 by mdsonofthesouth