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Spring/Summer drought in southern England and northwestern Europe.

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UK_Palms

@LivistonaFan I gave a descriptive answer in my last post. The photos you have uploaded are either well inland where it is colder and wetter, or of blander looking coastal regions. Compare those regions to places like St. Ives, Porthminster, Porthcurno beach, Portloe, Molunan Beach, Polkerris, Polperro, Looe, Readymoney Cove (all Cornwall) and Salcombe, East Portlemouth, Mill Bay, Meadfoot etc in Devon. There are quite a few coastal regions of Devon and Cornwall that kind of resemble the Med regions, especially during summer when it is drier. There has been a pretty severe drought in the south of England in recent months as well and many locations between Meadfoot, Devon and St. Ives, Cornwall wouldn't look out of place for coastal Portugal or Spain at this time of year.

Also, I'm not sure why you're bringing stuff up about Roystonia Regia. I have seen three 5-6 foot specimens growing in East London near the river Thames, where they haven't experienced a frost for the past two years. I'm not for a second suggesting that they are long term there though. Neither are the handful of Phoenix Roebeleni's that I have seen along the river there. Or the Kentia's, of which there are quite a few outside of pubs and restaurants. For all I know they may well have actually been protected during winter since they were in pots, but I saw them outside in December there. It was merely an observation that they are growing there. Will Royals get established outdoors in London? No chance. 

Edited by UK_Palms
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UK_Palms

The drought conditions are ramping up again here due to lack of rainfall. The temperatures may be relatively low in the 70-75F range, but we have only recorded 0.15 inches of rainfall for July so far. Taking the extended forecast into account, it looks like we will be lucky to finish the month on 0.3 inches of rain. So that will be just over 4 inches of rainfall in the space of 5 months (March - July). The rain that has fallen, mostly in June, was very light and didn't amount to a huge amount. Thankfully summer so far has been cooler than average.

The grass never fully recovered from the extent of the spring drought and in open playing fields/recreational grounds it has just gone completely brown/white again. When you kick the ground it sends a dust cloud up into the air. Notice the lone green weed growing in the second picture, two thirds of the way down. The palms don't seem to be impacted by it though, unlike the drought of 2018 which stopped most growth and even made my Trachy and Chamaerops Humilis fronds brown off. It will be interesting to see what kind of weather August brings... hot and dry, or mild and wet...?

There's supposed to be a cricket tournament on this field next weekend... :bummed:

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The farmers fields are looking pretty darn dry again. The rainfall that has fallen has just been so light that it has not been able to compensate for the low water table...

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LivistonaFan
6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@LivistonaFan I gave a descriptive answer in my last post. The photos you have uploaded are either well inland where it is colder and wetter, or of blander looking coastal regions. Compare those regions to places like St. Ives, Porthminster, Porthcurno beach, Portloe, Molunan Beach, Polkerris, Polperro, Looe, Readymoney Cove (all Cornwall) and Salcombe, East Portlemouth, Mill Bay, Meadfoot etc in Devon. There are quite a few coastal regions of Devon and Cornwall that kind of resemble the Med regions, especially during summer when it is drier. There has been a pretty severe drought in the south of England in recent months as well and many locations between Meadfoot, Devon and St. Ives, Cornwall wouldn't look out of place for coastal Portugal or Spain at this time of year.

Also, I'm not sure why you're bringing stuff up about Roystonia Regia. I have seen three 5-6 foot specimens growing in East London near the river Thames, where they haven't experienced a frost for the past two years. I'm not for a second suggesting that they are long term there though. Neither are the handful of Phoenix Roebeleni's that I have seen along the river there. Or the Kentia's, of which there are quite a few outside of pubs and restaurants. For all I know they may well have actually been protected during winter since they were in pots, but I saw them outside in December there. It was merely an observation that they are growing there. Will Royals get established outdoors in London? No chance. 

Ok, I misinterpreted you with the Royals then. "Several decent sized specimens in London, growing unprotected for a few winters there"  did sound unreal to me and I was a little doubtful to say the least. I assumed that they were planted, but in pots they might even be less likely to survive.  Central London has 52 sunshine hours in December and 62 in January, merely 2 hours a day. The soil temperature of these royals would have been below 10°C most of the winter which I find very surprising that they have survived even one winter, let alone a "few". The reason is, I saw a very poor looking specimen in Menton in 2019, it was planted in one of the warmer microclimates and  was about 1,50m high. Menton is several degrees warmer and sunnier (nearby coastal cities have 140 sunshine hours in December and 160 in January) in Winter than London (+there is at least 2 in 3 winters no frost, in recent times maybe even more often). I also saw a poor looking Bismarckia there (there was no frost the year before) and I concluded that these two palms need some winter warmth and dryness (not to the same extent as Cocos nucifera obviously) which only cities in Southern Europe e.g. Valencia and regions southwards, Reggio Calabria + Sicily, maybe Athens and southwards can provide. Bismarckia certainly can survive in more northern regions like Rome or Barcelona but most aren't good-looking there imo.

 

Phoenix roebellinii and Howea forsteriana are totally different cases as they aren't really cold tolerant but quite cool tolerant.

Below you can see a Howea forsteriana I took a photo of 10 km away from Menton in coastal Italy. If a Howea forsteriana (among few others there+ very good sized Archontophoenix and Caryota) and dozens of Phoenix roebellinii can survive the winters there and a Royal can't survive in good condition even a mild one, it surely is clear why I am doubtful about the survival in pots in London, even in the warmest winter of the century. They MUST have been brought indoors in winter.

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You're right. You gave me a descriptive answer, but it wasn't sufficient. To be clear I am only doubtful about the one photo of yours I posted last time. Of course there are spots in the UK that have a more dramatic immediate coast, but NONE OF THE ONES I have seen have high mountains behind them. I looked at all your 13 locations through Google Photos, ALL OF THEM have those glacier-polished hinterlands behind their cliffs, NOT A SINGLE ONE gets really mountainous after the immediate coast. I even have been to Polperro and Looe. Therefore my point about the lack of mountains in the previous post is still valid.

Some of the more dramatic coast sections you posted:

Porthcurno Beach:

Porthcurno beach, Cornwall | Nic Trott | Flickr

Portloe:

Portloe

Molunan Beach:

Great Molunan Beach in Cornwall aerial image | Great Molunan… | Flickr

Polkerris Beach:

Polkerris Beach, Cornwall | Polkerris Beach, Cornwall | Flickr

 

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UK_Palms

Hoping for some rain here tomorrow as it is bone dry here. It's just dust everywhere. My lawn is completely dead right now, as has been the case the past 2 summers. 

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Not sure if crops were supposed to grow here or not, but nothing appears to be growing here... the ground is as dead as a dodo...

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Pathway at the back of my house... sand everywhere...

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Full blown drought conditions, again...

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UK_Palms

Early morning walk through the woods (with a joint) and I am nearly loosing my shoes in the sand... 

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Big Chamaerops...

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Some grass still holding out...

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Some tomato plants have failed in the drought without adequate irrigation...

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Cordylines and Eucalyptus in Guildford...

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Some big banana plants...

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Near desert like conditions in central Surrey...

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Desperate for some rainfall here. Fingers crossed some falls this afternoon...

 

Edited by UK_Palms

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sipalms

@UK_Palms is there bushfire haze aloft? Amazing tonations to the photos. Almost apocalyptic.

Or maybe you just wound the yellow filter a bit too much. 

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I reckon I could do better...

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Kinda looks like that orange-yellow tone when you look through a pair of $20 / £10 sunnies from the sale rack at the gas station.

Or snowboarding goggles, they design them yellow/orange as it helps soften the sun's reflection off snow and ice.

It must be frightening! Stepping out your door into blazing heat, to go for a walk, only to almost lose your shoe in a saharan sand dune.

BTW I find it so extremely hard to believe that you can't find the location of that incredible Mediterranean mountainous coast that you uploaded that you have expected us to believe was in the UK.

You seem to be very quick to pinpoint exact locations of seeding washingtonias, and royal palms growing in the UK, and many other exciting claims, but can't tell us exactly where a photo you took of a beautiful big mountain was? Strange.

Honestly, why don't you just admit that you pulled a huge porky with that mountain photo? Or maybe simply prove where it is?

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UK_Palms

The rain has arrived here and we have copped an absolute soaking. The monthly rainfall total has trebled this afternoon as it has been raining continuously since late morning. In fact it might be the largest daily rainfall accumulation since February here. Much needed of course. 

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@sipalms Why are you putting yellow overlay's over my photos? You can see that the original photo hasn't got a yellow overlay over it as you have literally just applied one yourself to that photo and you can clearly see the difference. That photo you have edited doesn't look anything like my other photos. Some of my pictures are just bright where they were taken in direct sunlight, or they're much poorer quality where I have cropped out quite a bit of the image and that section isn't in focus. I also compress a lot of my files due to space limitations, as is the case with the one you are referring to. Hence the lower quality. I mean how do I fake the ground being so dry that it is cracked, or the dustbowl areas of land, or the grass being completely dead. You can clearly see how dry it has been. 

And it's hardly apocalyptic. The water table is just so low still due to the extent of the spring drought and because of how dry July has been, up until today. Although the 0.27 inches of rain we have got today would have helped somewhat. But it doesn't change the fact that we have only had about 4.5 inches of rainfall over the past 5 months now. Also, if you have such a problem with me in general, just block me... please...

 

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sipalms
1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

Also, if you have such a problem with me in general, just block me... please...

Ummmm. I'm possibly not the only one.

I just can't stand exaggeration and BS. My BS meter is very sensitive and gets triggered easily. When the authenticity of some of the content of quite a number of your posts gets called into question, and after some enquiry is proved as utterly false, then people have no reason to believe anything you say.

You make outlandish claims of particularly tropical palm species growing in the UK. With no proof.

You make outlandish claims that some of these are setting seed, but don't prove it.

Your yard thermometer/s seem to magically record often many degrees higher than multiple official stations nearby, in the benign landscape of southern UK.

You try to claim that the southern UK is now a subtropical climate, and London/your area is Mediterranean, using your own said thermometers. This is despite your location getting max temps in the teens, min temps below 10C, and cloudy days on end, in the height of summer...

You make mockery of some places in the world that actually do get serious, crippling drought for extended periods, by posting hyped up and heavily edited images of a few patches of sand near you. You also seem to reuse old photos from previous years. It would seem many of these photos aren't your own anyhow.

After preaching about how bad Covid-19 is, and why were people cramming the beach, you post a picture of a lake/mountain/coast 'in Surrey' that looks like it's straight out of Greece or somewhere. Then, when pressed about it's authenticity, you suddenly decide to open up your escape hatch by claiming that you had broken lockdown rules and the photos were taken in other parts of the UK. Yet despite being quick to pinpoint where all these amazing palms are that grow near you, you can't pinpoint the location or even general area of coastline where you took this pic. 

You then post pics taken from other forums showing palms and claiming them to be from the UK yet they're from other slightly more warm places around the world.

Do me a favour, prove the below pic's location would you?

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Also intrigued with this one. Looks like a volcanic cone to me. Where in Surrey/England was this?

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sandgroper

Temperature wise these two places could be one and the same except one is in the depths of winter and one is at the height of summer. One has a Mediterranean climate and one does not no matter how badly you want it to be. It's great that you.like experimenting with your palms, we all enjoy doing that or we wouldn't be here on this great forum but you do need to be realistic. Keep smoking your joints, you've mentioned that several times now in various posts and enjoy your drinking, it does make for some interesting and entertaining posts.

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NorCalKing
3 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Keep smoking your joints, you've mentioned that several times now in various posts and enjoy your drinking, it does make for some interesting and entertaining posts.

Damn! This all makes sense now. You have to be high to continue to seek attention with these laughable posts. When I use to read his nonsense it was always amusing to see some folks actually by his BS. Seems more and more people are just rolling their eyes.

I wish here in California it was just a "warm med" climate as Bong Boy's UK climate. Lmfao!

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sandgroper
20 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

 Bong Boy's UK climate. Lmfao!

:D

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UK_Palms

We've had more of that 'Saharan' rain on Sunday and Monday, turning the skies orange again. And by that I mean sand carried across from the Sahara which is deposited during spring/summer rains. It's actually a fairly common phenomena here and happens at least several times each year.

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After a wet weekend the temperatures have picked up again here. I hit 25C on Wednesday and we should hit 28C tomorrow. Parts of the southeast of England have 35C forecast for Friday.

It's forecast to cool down again going into the weekend, but the longer term forecast hints at a warm and dry August with temperatures consistently in the 25C range. On the whole it has been a relatively cool summer though, compared to recent years. 

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On the palm front I have spotted a few more decent sized palms around Surrey while out driving.

This CIDP appears to have inflorescence and is flowering here in Surrey. It looks very healthy...

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Another CIDP doing well in Guildford as well...

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Spotted 1 or 2 Washies as well here in Surrey...

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sipalms

@UK_Palms sounds like hottest day of the year tomorrow in UK, 34 forecast for London. Stay safe out there. Keep us apprised with temperature recordings, no doubt it'll be into the 40s in many parts of southern england on WUnderground.

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UK_Palms
On 7/25/2020 at 11:21 PM, sandgroper said:

Temperature wise these two places could be one and the same except one is in the depths of winter and one is at the height of summer. One has a Mediterranean climate and one does not no matter how badly you want it to be. It's great that you.like experimenting with your palms, we all enjoy doing that or we wouldn't be here on this great forum but you do need to be realistic. Keep smoking your joints, you've mentioned that several times now in various posts and enjoy your drinking, it does make for some interesting and entertaining posts.

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Wait, so you're saying that Perth see's temperatures in the mid 30's C during winter...? :bemused:

Generally speaking, this summer has been poor, cooler than average and nowhere near as warm as recent summers. Although we reached a high of 25C on Wednesday (not 21C as your screenshot forecast had predicted) and we reached 32C today. So we do still get quite a fair bit of warm-hot conditions and dry periods. Even during a cooler than average summer like this one. 

Tomorrow is forecast to be pretty hot and I'm sure a few inland places will see 35-36C somewhere tomorrow. As you can see below, it is still 25C in London at 9pm with pretty low humidity. According to the Met Office forecast, temperatures aren't expected to drop below 21C tonight in central and eastern London. Their nighttime low tonight is actually warmer than Perth's highest temperature over the next 7 days, looking at your forecast. So your winter's definitely aren't the same temperature as London, or the inland regions of the southeast in general. Bearing in mind this has been a cool summer for us as well. 

At 51N though, we're obviously nowhere near as warm as Perth in general across the year. The difference is night and day. You do however receive about 10 inches more rainfall than I do here though. The past 3 years here have seen 19, 16 and 18 inches of rainfall. The 2020 trajectory is currently on course for 15-16 inches. 

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Regarding the joints and 'bong boy' comments, well I have been self medicating with Marijuana to mitigate the pain and inflammation due to lordosis. I have a mild curvature of the spine, which will sometimes flare up and cause inflammation of my lower discs. I would rather medicate with a CBD joint than take prescription pharmaceuticals that cause me liver discomfort. Just saying...

:shaka-2:

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UK_Palms
21 minutes ago, sipalms said:

@UK_Palms sounds like hottest day of the year tomorrow in UK, 34 forecast for London. Stay safe out there. Keep us apprised with temperature recordings, no doubt it'll be into the 40s in many parts of southern england on WUnderground.

BBC have scaled the forecast up to 35C now. One of the main Met Office models is showing 36C for London tomorrow. 

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About time we got some proper bloody heat this summer. Looks like proper summer might be arriving late for us this year judging by the extended forecast for August. I don't see much rain in that forecast either, which is a concern given how dry it is right now still... :bummed:

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This is the polar opposite to the past two summers, which were hot and dry throughout June and July (or the first half of summer), then cool and wet in August. Whereas this year, it has been cool and wettish during June and July, but looks to be warm and dry in August.

I say that June and July have been 'wettish', but June only saw 0.9 inches of rain and July has only seen 0.4 inches of rain this year. I wouldn't be shocked if August only see's 0.3 inches or something looking at that forecast. Looking at the past 4 summers, the summer rainfall pattern clearly does not correspond with a temperate oceanic climate. 

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sandgroper
10 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 

Wait, so you're saying that Perth see's temperatures in the mid 30's C during winter...? :bemused:

No, I'm saying Perth doesn't see temperatures of 19c in summer, big difference. Perth recorded a 30c day last winter but that is very unusual.

 According to the Met Office forecast, temperatures aren't expected to drop below 21C tonight in central and eastern London. Their nighttime low tonight is actually warmer than Perth's highest temperature over the next 7 days, looking at your forecast. 

That is not surprising, Perth is in the depths of winter, it would not be uncommon for 21c to be warmer than Perth.

You do however receive about 10 inches more rainfall than I do here though. 

Again correct, however the rainfall in Perth is generally not the drizzly stuff, it comes down like the flood gates have been opened, nice and heavy. It also generally occurs over the 3 months of winter, not much else otherwise in normal years.

 

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greysrigging

You all should suss out the 5th and 10th %ile  and 90 and 95%ile figures of your local climate ( heat and cold ) Gives an indication of how often ( on average ) you can expect extreme temps.
A 35-36c forecast for London would be right up there I suspect.

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sipalms
50 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

You all should suss out the 5th and 10th %ile  and 90 and 95%ile figures of your local climate ( heat and cold ) Gives an indication of how often ( on average ) you can expect extreme temps.
A 35-36c forecast for London would be right up there I suspect.

July is typically the hottest month of most Northern Hemisphere countries/regions. (In some places like California, August.)

As of just now, London has broken the 30 degree mark.

Headlines in typical british tabloid style today: "London weather: Capital to be hotter than Ibiza, Morocco and Turkey".

This is the first time that London has broken the 30 degree mark in July, on the very last day.

Last week, low temps in the single digits, 7-8 degrees, were recorded all over southern parts of England.

From here on in, expect a few (very few) more late twenties/maybe 30, into August.

Then it's all downhill into the grey drizzly gloom until another 11 months time.

Places in Northern Europe/Scandinavia have more hot weather than the UK.

Then there's actual subtropic climates in Oceanic areas like Auckland/Northland that very very rarely break the 30 degree mark, yet have mid to late twenties and humid warm nights for months on end.

London/Southern UK = Not much of a med/subtropic climate.

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SubarcticUK
6 hours ago, sipalms said:

July is typically the hottest month of most Northern Hemisphere countries/regions. (In some places like California, August.)

As of just now, London has broken the 30 degree mark.

Headlines in typical british tabloid style today: "London weather: Capital to be hotter than Ibiza, Morocco and Turkey".

This is the first time that London has broken the 30 degree mark in July, on the very last day.

Last week, low temps in the single digits, 7-8 degrees, were recorded all over southern parts of England.

From here on in, expect a few (very few) more late twenties/maybe 30, into August.

Then it's all downhill into the grey drizzly gloom until another 11 months time.

Places in Northern Europe/Scandinavia have more hot weather than the UK.

Then there's actual subtropic climates in Oceanic areas like Auckland/Northland that very very rarely break the 30 degree mark, yet have mid to late twenties and humid warm nights for months on end.

London/Southern UK = Not much of a med/subtropic climate.

Indeed. My climate is classified as “cool Mediterranean” as it has very dry summers and wet winters, but does not have warm enough temperatures and is too high in latitude (45.5°N) to be subtropical.

Here is my forecast:

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A few days ago we had two consecutive days at 100°F and then two days in the mid-high 90s yesterday and the day before. Doesn’t mean my climate is subtropical, although it is quite a bit warmer than anywhere in England. Temperatures are somewhat comparable to Lyon, France but our winters are a touch milder.

NorCalKing’s climate in Livermore is rather similar to mine in terms of precipitation pattern but a lot warmer and actually Mediterranean / subtropical. The difference is huge when you look at climate stats.

Edited by SubarcticUK

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greysrigging

London temp at 3.00pm was 37c rounded..... will be interesting to see if it spiked to the old 100f ( 37.78c ).

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UK_Palms
13 hours ago, sipalms said:

As of just now, London has broken the 30 degree mark.

When you posted this, London was sitting at 34C (94F), as was Guildford. I know because I was on my break at work and checked at 11am, immediately after you had posted. So you were clearly trying to downplay it. 

13 hours ago, sipalms said:

Last week, low temps in the single digits, 7-8 degrees, were recorded all over southern parts of England.

Again, not true. I'm right out in the rural countryside here, and although we can get some chilly nights under the clear skies here in summer, the lowest I have recorded in the past 2 weeks is 9.1C (48F) and we have only had 2 nights below 50F during that time here. So stop trying to accentuate that the UK is that cold in summer. There's definitely an agenda being perpetuated by you.

13 hours ago, sipalms said:

This is the first time that London has broken the 30 degree mark in July, on the very last day.

This is also the coolest summer since 2013 here this year (without factoring in today's temps). June and July have been relatively cool and wettish, compared to recent years. But it seems the back end of July and most of August will be warm and dry, looking at the extended forecast. So let's put some perspective into this. Like come on. Spring was ridiculously dry and sunny. But summer started out cooler and wetter than in recent years. Doesn't mean we're cool and wet in summer, like in general, as you accentuate. 

13 hours ago, sipalms said:

Then it's all downhill into the grey drizzly gloom until another 11 months time.

Utter nonsense. Spring is typically sunny and dry here, especially in recent years. There's barely any rain and plenty of days with clear skies and warm weather. I'm talking temperatures of 20-30C (68-86F) during spring alone here. Of course you get the odd cold day at this latitude, with highs that barely scrape 14C, but generally speaking, spring days are around 20C (68F) with clear sunny skies. I have been keeping tabs on it in recent years. We have had 31C (88F) as early as April here. It's nowhere near as cold and 'bleak/dreary' as you are making it out to be. I mean we had 0.3 inches of rain in April this year and 0.0 inches of rain in May and over 600 sunshine hours in spring alone. April May consistently saw daytime temperatures in the 75F range. There was even less rain in spring the year before, in 2019. On top of that, summer in general is warm and dry here, akin to a Mediterranean climate. We do not experience wet/humid summers here. 

13 hours ago, sipalms said:

Places in Northern Europe/Scandinavia have more hot weather than the UK.

Where about's in northern Europe/Scandinavia have seen 100F the past 3 consecutive years? I know for a fact that Denmark, Norway, Sweden & Finland have not seen 100F once in the past 3 years, yet alone 3 consecutive years, like I have here. Also, how many large Washintongia Filifera's are growing in Scandinavia? Is there any??? We have quite a few here.

We had an official Met Office high of 101F last summer and an official Met Office high of 100F this summer now. I also recorded 100F+ in 2018 during the notorious hot/dry summer of 2018, when the drought was as bad as it has ever been. Back when we had like 15 consecutive days above 90F and 10 weeks without a SINGLE drop of rainfall

No doubt local temperatures have exceeded the Met Office recordings around the southeast of England, due to a lack of 'official' stations. I am adamant that parts of southeast London saw 102-103F last year and today, but no official Met Stations nearby to record this. You know this as well, in reality, but will deny it because you have an agenda to perpetuate that the UK is cold and wet. I am beginning to think you were born here, but moved out to NZ, so are trying to justify your means for leaving the UK...

3 hours ago, greysrigging said:

London temp at 3.00pm was 37c rounded..... will be interesting to see if it spiked to the old 100f ( 37.78c ).

My yard was showing 38.1C at 2:50pm here today. However, we experienced a similar phenomena to WA's 'Freemantle Doctor' here, with cooler winds blowing in around mid-afternoon and some cloudy weather as well, which lowered the temperature and increased humidity. No doubt some places exceeded the 38.1C that I recorded and the 37.8C that the Met Office recorded on their official stations (limited number). Obviously it is up for debate as to how hot it actually got though. At the very least, I think we saw 101-102F in places here. Parts of London didn't drop below 21C (70F) last night and I am currently sitting at 22C at midnight here tonight, out in the rural countryside. The skies have cleared again now though, so the temperature will probably drop down further into the high teens...

I am not saying that we are a Mediterranean climate, but we are very dry here from March - September and warmer than some true Med climates. If the past 5 years are anything to go on, we are also drier than quite a few true Med climates as well. Whether people like it or not, the southeast of the UK is bordering on a 'cool wet winter and warm, dry summer climate'. If I'm not mistaken, that DOES correspond with a Med climate. But perhaps we need a climate reclassification, to perhaps say a 'dry summer Oceanic' climate or something, because this is not a typical 'cool, wet' temperate oceanic climate. Not for 51N of the equator. I am averaging 16-18 inches of rainfall a year here in recent years, with major droughts in spring/summer and 100F+ temperatures in back to back years. Obviously this is not the same climate that my grandparents experienced, if we're being real. Climate change is happening here in northwestern Europe. 

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Those were just the late morning temps above...

Let me guess, ALL these afternoon temps below are fake/inaccurate, right.... :rolleyes:

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August is looking pretty warm and dry. I don't see any definitive rainfall forecast in the next 14 days, which will further complicate the ongoing drought situation, which is already pretty bad right now. Definitely not indicative of a 'temperate oceanic' climate, at 51N at least, given the sheer extent of the spring/summer droughts in recent years. Almost two thirds of our annual rainfall has been coming between Nov-Feb in recent years, which is again indicative of a Med climate... just saying...

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Edited by UK_Palms

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greysrigging

Outstanding.....37.8c at 51*N is pretty 'cool'....no pun intended ! Even Melbourne some summers fails to reach 38c. Moreseo prior to say the last 20 years...
( OK, now I'm going to check myself here.... )
OK, going back to 1960, Melbourne experienced 5 years where the temperature failed to reach 37.8c ( 100f ). Last time was in 2002.
And 9 times the max temp reached 37.8c only once in a calendar year, the last time was in 2017.
All the previous summers without an extreme heat day are prior to the year 2000.
 

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sipalms
9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I am beginning to think you were born here, but moved out to NZ, so are trying to justify your means for leaving the UK...

Ahhh... So what you're suggesting is that I would much rather be living in a UK 'subtropical Mediterranean' climate than out here in the South Pacific? Get a grip. I'd say you're stuck in your grey cool extremely northern latitudes and feeling a bit cheated. 

Dude you have no idea. Honestly. There are so many UK expats living here, I speak to them every single day (no kidding). Without fail, they mention the weather as being one of the primary reasons they left the UK.

Why the hell would they migrate literally to the other side of the globe if they could get the climate they're after in southern England?

The climate here is far from perfect in some places, but mostly would leave the UK for dead.

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Do you want to come? You can. https://www.propertyguides.com/new-zealand/news/expat-hotspots-5-places-british-love-live/

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- - -

9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

You know this as well, in reality, but will deny it because you have an agenda to perpetuate that the UK is cold and wet.

The UK is not really that cold and wet. Well, not always, just most of the year. But comparatively it's actually quite mild for the latitude. Gulf stream.

But it's cool and grey most of the year. Very little rain, very little heat, and very little sunshine. There's a reason why England is stereotyped as being a grey hole. That's because it is.

Screenshot_20200801-233021_Chrome.thumb.jpg.93f1e3119689747ff1e8b08879def6a8.jpg

ouch. 

Screenshot_20200801-232845_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6ba2ac3ad606ae25795f79fe1c6a5126.jpg

No, dear Google user, ask @UK_Palms, British weather is very desirable.Screenshot_20200801-232832_Chrome.thumb.jpg.19c8e0c992f0d68c313688868b826e46.jpg

Wet? Nope. It hardly ever rains (just drizzles a hell of a lot).

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Not cold. Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. If you're from Iceland, the UK feels like Morrocco.

- - -

This is a palm forum. If you want proof of what a climate is actually like, look at what grows there. The UK has pathetic offerings. Apart from rare specimens of Large washies (none of which there are proof of setting seed) and the all too common CIDP which is actually very hardy, (albeit terribly slow growing in the UK) the UK has virtually nothing of note. Nothing cold sensitive of a decent size. No crownshaft palms growing unprotected in the open on the mainland. No native or endemic plant species that are remotely indicative or similar to those from actual warm climates. No native palms or subtropical type flora.

England has been gardening for over a thousand years and has conquered exciting exotic lands all over the world, bringing back plants from far and wide. And all you've got to show for it as regularly sighted street trees is one hardy little thing called cordyline australis, even then your predecessors incorrectly yet ambitiously called the "Torquay Palm". Yet drive around NZ which has been gardening mostly less than 100 years and in many parts you could easily be mistaken for driving through Hawaii or California or Colombia, with the variety of palms. 

Frankly, I think you're living in a dream land, and I feel sorry for you. I honestly think you should, with whatever means you have, move to somewhere warm where you'll be truly happy and grow palms other than in protectable pots. (Land is comparatively cheap here. Just saying)

You go quiet every time there's a 10 day stretch of your normal temperatures (e.g. 16-21 degrees and cloudy, with mornings in the low teens or even single digits) then suddenly when the temperature reaches 30 on the very rare occasion you're out posting like crazy trying to get us to believe that you live in some Ibiza or something.

You continually post fraudulent pictures and lie about where they are.. you still haven't told us where the photos were that you took of mountainous coastal areas supposedly in the UK (clearly not).

Anyway, honest and sincere question. Does the UK publish weather data for the general public? I would love to download this and make some scientific conclusions. For example, New Zealand data is available from NIWA, and we can download official weather records back to the 1960s...

Screenshot_20200801-233056_Chrome.jpg

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sandgroper
28 minutes ago, sipalms said:

 

Dude you have no idea. Honestly. There are so many UK expats living here, I speak to them every single day (no kidding). Without fail, they mention the weather as being one of the primary reasons they left the UK.

One person in every five here in Western Australia was born in the UK, I've got plenty of Pommie mates and not one of them rates the UK climate as something they miss.

 

 

 

 

You go quiet every time there's a 10 day stretch of your normal temperatures (e.g. 16-21 degrees and cloudy, with mornings in the low teens or even single digits) then suddenly when the temperature reaches 30 on the very rare occasion you're out posting like crazy 

I've noticed this too.

 

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UK_Palms

@sipalms What the hell are you even on about? Why are you trying to turn this into a UK vs New Zealand climate debate? Obviously you guys are going to be warmer and sunnier than the UK in general as you guys are 8 degrees closer to the equator than we are here and Auckland is 15 degrees closer to the equator. So of course you can grow more variety of things in NZ. I'm not even sure how that argument is relevant in a 'spring/summer drought in southeast England' thread.

And I never for a second suggested that you would rather live here in the UK. I was simply saying that there must be a reason for your agenda against the climate here, since you are perpetuating that we are cool, wet and gloomy year-round. A typical stereotype. You're also encompassing the entire UK climate into a generalisation, when this thread is obviously about the southeast of England specifically, which is clearly worlds apart, climate-wise, from say the northwest of Scotland for instance. 

It's almost as if you are in denial that the southeast of England experiences hot weather in summer and that it is also pretty dry in general here. Even when we have 100F temperatures here, or a severe drought that lasts many months, you do your utmost best to play it down or denounce any stats/recordings as being fake, while insisting that we are still cold, wet and gloomy year-round. I mean you literally said that we are gloomy, cold and wet for 11 months, which is complete and utter nonsense. You definitely have an agenda.

If we are so cold, wet and gloomy here, why are there large Washingtonia Filifera and even cacti growing outdoors in the southeast of England? Those things obviously need dryish climates with good summer heat, so the notion that we are wet, cool and gloomy all year-round is nonsense. I will accept that winter is pretty wet, cool and gloomy here at 51N, but that cannot be said, consistently, for the other 9 months. It is certainly not cool, wet and gloomy from April - September here. Rather it is dry and warm, generally speaking. But you don't live here, or grow palms here, so I wouldn't expect you to know. In the same way that I don't try to lecture you on the South Island's climate. 

 

2 hours ago, sipalms said:

Screenshot_20200801-232845_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6ba2ac3ad606ae25795f79fe1c6a5126.jpg

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What even is this crap, Jeremy? You have clearly just posted this to try and antagonise me. Your sources at the 'stackexchange' seem to be talking out of their arse. Obviously the sky is not always grey as implied above. It is also not always wet. And it is not depressing to live in the UK. I'm beginning to think you are just annoyed that we have had 100F here, again, and it has been pretty dry, which contradicts your posts in recent months, so you are getting petty with your comments now. I mean grow up mate. 

 

1 hour ago, sipalms said:

This is a palm forum. If you want proof of what a climate is actually like, look at what grows there. The UK has pathetic offerings. Apart from rare specimens of Large washies (none of which there are proof of setting seed) and the all too common CIDP which is actually very hardy, (albeit terribly slow growing in the UK) the UK has virtually nothing of note. Nothing cold sensitive of a decent size. No crownshaft palms growing unprotected in the open on the mainland. No native or endemic plant species that are remotely indicative or similar to those from actual warm climates. No native palms or subtropical type flora.

England has been gardening for over a thousand years and has conquered exciting exotic lands all over the world, bringing back plants from far and wide. And all you've got to show for it as regularly sighted street trees is one hardy little thing called cordyline australis, even then your predecessors incorrectly yet ambitiously called the "Torquay Palm". Yet drive around NZ which has been gardening mostly less than 100 years and in many parts you could easily be mistaken for driving through Hawaii or California or Colombia, with the variety of palms. 

Frankly, I think you're living in a dream land, and I feel sorry for you. I honestly think you should, with whatever means you have, move to somewhere warm where you'll be truly happy and grow palms other than in protectable pots. (Land is comparatively cheap here. Just saying.

This dribble, Jeremy, proves that you have an anti-UK sentiment, which explains a lot of your posts now...

2 hours ago, sipalms said:

You go quiet every time there's a 10 day stretch of your normal temperatures (e.g. 16-21 degrees and cloudy, with mornings in the low teens or even single digits) then suddenly when the temperature reaches 30 on the very rare occasion you're out posting like crazy trying to get us to believe that you live in some Ibiza or something.

More rubbish. I have been posting on here since April/May, even during the cooler, wetter periods of June. I have even posted photos of the environment after we have had rainfall. Obviously this is a thread about the drought situation in southern England, so I am clearly going to be posting more during drier, hotter periods when the drought issue is more pronounced/exacerbated here.

Why would I be posting like crazy during a period when temperatures are below average and we have had some rainfall. But even during those periods, I have still posted on here. Of course when it is hot and dry, I do probably post more frequently. But then again we have been in drought-like conditions since April here, which have not let up. So I don't see the issue with me not posting for 10 days in general, at any point. It has been super dry here for months. So am I obliged to continuously post, on a daily basis? You seem to want to create an issue out of anything, or nothing.

As I said, if you don't like me, or this thread, block me and stop interacting.

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UK_Palms
10 hours ago, greysrigging said:

Outstanding.....37.8c at 51*N is pretty 'cool'....no pun intended ! Even Melbourne some summers fails to reach 38c. Moreseo prior to say the last 20 years...
( OK, now I'm going to check myself here.... )
OK, going back to 1960, Melbourne experienced 5 years where the temperature failed to reach 37.8c ( 100f ). Last time was in 2002.
And 9 times the max temp reached 37.8c only once in a calendar year, the last time was in 2017.
All the previous summers without an extreme heat day are prior to the year 2000.
 

It's more than 10C cooler here today. My overnight low was only 18C last night, but we have only reached 27C here today. So it has cooled down quite a bit.

Two Met Office models are showing 37C again for this coming Friday and 36C for Saturday. Obviously that could go up or down between now and then. More than likely down, if anything. But it appears it will be getting very warm again towards the end of next week. Well into the 30's C. 

When it's hot here though, it is always a dry heat due to the high pressure systems and Saharan air masses that push up into Europe. We don't get hot/humid days, with extreme heat indexes, like you guys routinely see up in Darwin. I couldn't deal with that. 38C with 20% humidity was hot enough yesterday though. In fact it was stifling. 

At least us Brit's didn't pack out the beaches again and observed some social distancing due to the virus this time.

Just kidding... 

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Even the remote, 'quiet' beaches were packed...

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Looks like a second wave of coronavirus is on it's way for us over here... :o

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sipalms
5 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

What the hell are you even on about? Why are you trying to turn this into a UK vs New Zealand climate debate? Obviously you guys are going to be warmer and sunnier than the UK in general as you guys are 8 degrees closer to the equator than we are here and Auckland is 15 degrees closer to the equator. So of course you can grow more variety of things in NZ. I'm not even sure how that argument is relevant in a 'spring/summer drought in southeast England' thread.

Quite simply, you tried to suggest I was a British expat justifying leaving the UK. 

I wanted to make sure you got a loud and clear message that outside of the UK, it's a common view that the UK has crap weather in general. Especially stated by UK expats. A misconception? Maybe. But usually where there's smoke there's fire. Certainly all the times I have been to the UK that has proved correct. Maybe I just missed out on one of your 100f days.

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UK_Palms
4 minutes ago, sipalms said:

Quite simply, you tried to suggest I was a British expat justifying leaving the UK. 

I wanted to make sure you got a loud and clear message that outside of the UK, it's a common view that the UK has crap weather in general. Especially stated by UK expats. A misconception? Maybe. But usually where there's smoke there's fire. Certainly all the times I have been to the UK that has proved correct. Maybe I just missed out on one of your 100f days.

I said that maybe you were born here and were an expat, perhaps, which would explain why you are insisting that the UK weather is crap year-round. Obviously that isn't the case, although I suspect your parents or grandparents are probably British. I think I'm right in saying that 80% of the south island's population is of British descent, right? With most of those generations moving to NZ within the past 75 years. 

Of course UK expats are going to critique our weather, both to justify their means of leaving these shores and because they are obviously closer to the equator, in warmer, sunnier locations. So them criticising the UK climate, while in these locations, goes without saying. I don't know what time of year you visited the UK, or what locations you visited, but anywhere outside of the southeast of England is going to be significantly cooler and wetter, year-round. The extreme heat and dryness is concentrated on the southeast region, especially the inland regions of the southeast. Obviously if you're visiting anywhere here between October - April, then it probably is going to be pretty cool or wet, or both even, like in general. But if you visit the southeast between May - September, there's a good chance you will have 20-25C at least and dry, sunny weather.

I don't know how long ago you visited as well. The 5 hottest temperatures on record have all occurred since the year 2000 with it being significantly warmer and drier in recent years. There seems to be a pretty dramatic decline in rainfall going on, especially around the southeast of England. Spring rainfall is literally about 10% of what it was 20 years ago. So there's more sunny days now than there used to be, even compared to just 10-20 years ago.

The temperatures seem to be far higher on the hottest days of the year as well now. Back in the 1990's, the hottest days of the year would typically be around 33-34C. Now we are seeing 37C almost every year. Obviously last year, in 2019, we saw the all-time record of 38.7C and this year we have seen 37.8C now. We also had 37.1C back in 2018. So again, that confirms the trend of more extreme heat on the hottest days of the year. It looks like we are getting 37C most summers now.

I genuinely think it is only a matter of time before we see a 40C reading here in the southeast. The current record is only 1.3C away from 40C, so it is definitely feasible. Like I think we will experience a 40C day within the next decade, due to climate change and the increasing effect of Saharan air masses/plumes pushing up through the Med into northern Europe. Those air masses are becoming more pronounced than they used to be, possibly due to the jet stream becoming weaker, especially in summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 38-39C next Friday/Saturday, looking at some of the forecast models.  

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sipalms
6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Obviously that isn't the case, although I suspect your parents or grandparents are probably British. I think I'm right in saying that 80% of the south island's population is of British descent, right? With most of those generations moving to NZ within the past 75 years. 

This has absolutely no bearing on our conversation at all. Why would people 'justify' leaving the UK, if they could (apart from covid) simply just jump on a plane and return to the supposed hot land of sunshine?

You're right though.... Most of the commonwealth has British roots. Funny thing is most of the commonwealth is built on pioneering people who wanted to escape Britain for better horizons (and weather?!)

This doesn't mean that some guy from the South Island is automatically a british expat though, just because he questions the voracity of some far-fetched weather/climate claims coming loudly from the UK.

6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I don't know what time of year you visited the UK, or what locations you visited, but anywhere outside of the southeast of England is going to be significantly cooler and wetter, year-round. The extreme heat and dryness is concentrated on the southeast region, especially the inland regions of the southeast. Obviously if you're visiting anywhere here between October - April, then it probably is going to be pretty cool or wet, or both even, like in general. But if you visit the southeast between May - September, there's a good chance you will have 20-25C at least and dry, sunny weather.

Sorry mate but I have visited in late May (in the last 5 years), and had an entire week of crap weather in the early teens, windy, raining, mostly cloudy. No days above 20 for sure. Happy to prove this with weather records if I could find them. And much of it was spent in the south - Cornwall, Devon, Surrey, Hampshire and London city. Funnily enough some of the sunniest weather (a day) was in South Yorkshire, even though it was windy and very cool still. I was stupid enough not to pack a warm jacket. Had a raincoat (obviously a must have when visiting the UK) but nothing warm. Dumb decision. Fortunately went to France to thaw out. Was 25 degrees there - so much better. The funny thing was that I couldn't get over how late sunset was. Late sunsets would be such a bonus if the weather was consistently hot... 

The hilarious thing about this pathetic argument is that if you told me you'd visited the South Island of NZ in late November (equivalent of your late May) and told me the above, I would have said, yeah, of course, quite possible in a coastal island location, and not tried to make it sound like I live in some kind of Ibiza and get upset.

6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I genuinely think it is only a matter of time before we see a 40C reading here in the southeast. The current record is only 1.3C away from 40C, so it is definitely feasible. Like I think we will experience a 40C day within the next decade, due to climate change

Absolutely - I would think there's a fighting chance. After all you're just sitting off the coast of a massive continent which can get into the 40's so it possibly wouldn't take much for a stray blob of hot air to cover the southeastern UK bringing 40. 

However one interesting thing is that cloud cover could easily increase over the UK as a result of supposed climate change, it's a documented theory among scientists, that with warmer air and sea at higher latitudes then humidity and cloud cover would naturally increase as well, and this could even moderate the effects of warming on higher latitudes, perhaps bringing milder, cloudier, more humid weather year round.

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greysrigging
8 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 The 5 hottest temperatures on record have all occurred since the year 2000 with it being significantly warmer and drier in recent years. There seems to be a pretty dramatic decline in rainfall going on, especially around the southeast of England. Spring rainfall is literally about 10% of what it was 20 years ago. So there's more sunny days now than there used to be, even compared to just 10-20 years ago.

The temperatures seem to be far higher on the hottest days of the year as well now. Back in the 1990's, the hottest days of the year would typically be around 33-34C. Now we are seeing 37C almost every year. Obviously last year, in 2019, we saw the all-time record of 38.7C and this year we have seen 37.8C now. We also had 37.1C back in 2018. So again, that confirms the trend of more extreme heat on the hottest days of the year. It looks like we are getting 37C most summers now.

I genuinely think it is only a matter of time before we see a 40C reading here in the southeast. The current record is only 1.3C away from 40C, so it is definitely feasible. Like I think we will experience a 40C day within the next decade, due to climate change and the increasing effect of Saharan air masses/plumes pushing up through the Med into northern Europe. Those air masses are becoming more pronounced than they used to be, possibly due to the jet stream becoming weaker, especially in summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 38-39C next Friday/Saturday, looking at some of the forecast models. 

Agreed.... it is the 'trends' that are showing up in the weather stats in many places around the world. In Australia there has been a general rise in mean temperatures since 1950. Not by a huge amount, but it is there in the data. And the frequency and number of extreme heat events has increased significantly, particularly in the last 20 years. Many parts of Australia have broken older historical heat and drought records in the last decade or so. The last historical bastion of heat records, Jan 1939 has been exceeded almost everywhere ( a small area along the Murray Valley the 1939 records still stand ).
The odd cold records are still exceeded ( May 2020 in the tropics ), but no where near as often as heat records. And the worrying trend of decreased rainfall in the bread basket regions of the south west and south east of the continent is also cause for concern.

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UK_Palms
2 hours ago, sipalms said:

This has absolutely no bearing on our conversation at all. Why would people 'justify' leaving the UK, if they could (apart from covid) simply just jump on a plane and return to the supposed hot land of sunshine?

You're right though.... Most of the commonwealth has British roots. Funny thing is most of the commonwealth is built on pioneering people who wanted to escape Britain for better horizons (and weather?!)

This doesn't mean that some guy from the South Island is automatically a british expat though, just because he questions the voracity of some far-fetched weather/climate claims coming loudly from the UK.

Look mate, I was just curious whether you were born in New Zealand, or came over from the UK, or whether your parents/grandparents had. Since you have already said that you have family in Surrey as well (at least I think it was you who said that) as well as the fact you have visited the UK 5 times in 5 years. In which case, I don't even know why I asked you that question in the first place. It's pretty obvious to me that you were either born here, or your parents were. It is somewhat relevant if you have mentioned it in this thread yourself, about having family in the UK and visiting here. 

2 hours ago, sipalms said:

Sorry mate but I have visited in late May (in the last 5 years), and had an entire week of crap weather in the early teens, windy, raining, mostly cloudy. No days above 20 for sure. Happy to prove this with weather records if I could find them. And much of it was spent in the south - Cornwall, Devon, Surrey, Hampshire and London city. Funnily enough some of the sunniest weather (a day) was in South Yorkshire, even though it was windy and very cool still. I was stupid enough not to pack a warm jacket. Had a raincoat (obviously a must have when visiting the UK) but nothing warm. Dumb decision. Fortunately went to France to thaw out. Was 25 degrees there - so much better. The funny thing was that I couldn't get over how late sunset was. Late sunsets would be such a bonus if the weather was consistently hot... 

Interesting. So you were here in late May 2018, 2019 & 2020 when there were severe droughts going on in each of those months/years. I mean May 2019 and 2020 didn't see any rainfall at all for London and the southeast (0.0 inches), and I think May 2018 only saw something like 0.4 inches. That certainly applied to Surrey, Hampshire and London at least, although maybe not on the immediate coastlines which are obviously windier and wetter than inland regions. But if I average out my May rainfalls for the past 5 years, it comes to 0.3 inches. In fact May 2020 was the sunniest month on record for the UK. 

But you say you had an entire week of 'crap' weather during these periods. I remember those months being quite sunny with above average temperatures. Late May this year saw 27C (80F) in London, and late May 2019 saw 29C (84F) across the southeast, and late May 2018 saw 28C (82F) as well. Certainly warmer and sunnier than you guys would typically experience during late spring in Christchurch, NZ. I know as I was following your weather quite closely last spring/summer as we were debating stuff, back and forth, back then as well. Personally, I think you're just trying to make out that the weather is cold and wet all the time here, when it really isn't, especially in May. Or at least the recent May's...

19 minutes ago, sipalms said:

Had a raincoat (obviously a must have when visiting the UK)

Oh please, come on. We are really not as wet here as you are trying to accentuate. Generally speaking, you do not need a raincoat for the south of England from May - October. The summer months are warm and dry (even when it is 20C and cloudy) and any rain that does fall is very, very light, which is why our annual rainfall totals are so low. I genuinely have not worn a coat in about 2 years now. Just jumpers/sweaters in winter pretty much. It doesn't rain enough, or heavy enough, to need a coat in general.

It does get cold enough in winter to need a coat though. Although 80% of my annual rainfall comes between November - February these days. So you'd probably have a coat on in general during that winter period, when most of the rain comes as well. But a raincoat in summer for London and the southeast, do me a favour. Obviously if you are visiting the north, or the west, it is a different story though. But you say you've primarily been in the south/southeast. In which case that doesn't make sense frankly. This June was wet compared to recent years, but I still didn't need a raincoat as the rainfall was still so light. I take it you wear a raincoat in Christchurch during November/December too then, right?

2 hours ago, sipalms said:

However one interesting thing is that cloud cover could easily increase over the UK as a result of supposed climate change, it's a documented theory among scientists, that with warmer air and sea at higher latitudes then humidity and cloud cover would naturally increase as well, and this could even moderate the effects of warming on higher latitudes, perhaps bringing milder, cloudier, more humid weather year round.

Well the sunshine hours are definitely increasing here, in conjunction with a decline in precipitation, especially during spring and summer. Spring 2020, just gone, saw something like 650 hours of sunshine for the UK on average. I think London racked up 700 hours. On the current trajectory, London and the southeast may finish the year on 2,300 sunshine hours. Generally speaking, the south coast of England see's 1,900 hours each year and has seen as much as 2,200 before. But the bone dry, sunny spring of this year may set a few records for annual sunshine hours too. Either way it is definitely getting sunnier here with less precipitation across the year, looking at the trends. Although winter rainfall is increasing. Again that suggests we are moving towards a Mediterranean climate here. Not that we are one right now.

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sipalms
48 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Interesting. So you were here in late May 2018, 2019 & 2020

No. I was not. I said I was in the UK within the last 5 years, in May. Not every May for the last 5 years. 

Also, for the record; Not I, my parents, or my grandparents were born in the UK. But that doesn't mean I don't have family there does it?!

49 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Late May this year saw 27C (80F) in London, and late May 2019 saw 29C (84F) across the southeast, and late May 2018 saw 28C (82F) as well. Certainly warmer and sunnier than you guys would typically experience during late spring in Christchurch, NZ. I know as I was following your weather quite closely last spring/summer as we were debating stuff, back and forth, back then as well.

Sorry bud but you're outright b******ting now. "I know as I was following your weather..." HAHAHA.

Well, here's the facts for you to shut you up. I have taken the 'late spring' e.g. October and November, which is your April/May, for Christchurch.

(Source: NIWA National Climate Database of New Zealand)

October and November 2015 

  • Max Temp of 25 and over = 16 times
  • Max Temp of 30 and over = 2 times 
  • High temp 30.2

October and November 2016

  • Max Temp of 25 and over = 13 times
  • Max Temp of 30 and over = 2 times 
  • High temp 31.0

October and November 2017

  • Max Temp of 25 and over = 7 times
  • Max Temp of 30 and over = 1 time
  • High temp 30.9

October and November 2018

  • Max Temp of 25 and over = 7 times
  • Max Temp of 30 and over = 2 times
  • High temp 30

October and November 2019

  • Max Temp of 25 and over = 10 times
  • Max Temp of 30 and over = 3 times
  • High temp 32.5

So your statement "Late May this year saw 27C (80F) in London, and late May 2019 saw 29C (84F) across the southeast, and late May 2018 saw 28C (82F) as well. Certainly warmer and sunnier than you guys would typically experience"  is factually and embarrassingly incorrect by quite a bit.

And that's not even comparing sunshine hours... given that Christchurch has higher average annual sunshine hours than anywhere in the UK (remember - nowhere in the UK records over 2000 average annual sunshine hours - the highest is in Jersey in the Channel islands, sitting just off the coast of France lol). So I don't think we'll even bother comparing sunshine hours, don't you think?

Here's a headline from the UK in April this year; "Britain is set to enjoy the hottest April for 361 years with temperatures soaring to 24C by Thursday making the UK hotter than Ibiza!"

Well, every October (our April) according to the exact data from above, Christchurch recorded 26 degrees or over at least once! Haha lol. Not exactly headline-worthy over here but looks like makes sensational news over your way lol. lol. lolololol. 

And here's the ironic thing, I've used official records from Christchurch City. I could just as easily go inland as little as 15-20 miles, and these temperatures would be even hotter away from the coastal breeze. For example inland basins like Culverden which get substantial heat on a regular basis as they have similar geography to the likes of California's central valley.

Yet you're using data for the whole of the UK, and even then mostly you quote from Wunderground a network of un-verified el cheapo weather stations in people's backyards.

Moral of the story is don't make wild assumptions without facts and data to back it up.

P.S:

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I take it you wear a raincoat in Christchurch during November/December too then, right?

Yes, you're 100% correct. I don't live in Dubai or Perth. And neither do you.

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

But a raincoat in summer for London and the southeast, do me a favour.

Hahahah challenge accepted... I'm going to ask the next Londoner I meet, that question... (probably won't take long as there's so many here).

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UK_Palms

I can't even be arsed to reply to all this dribble and continue the 'he said, she said' nonsense now. But I have to address something here...

9 minutes ago, sipalms said:

So your statement "Late May this year saw 27C (80F) in London, and late May 2019 saw 29C (84F) across the southeast, and late May 2018 saw 28C (82F) as well. Certainly warmer and sunnier than you guys would typically experience"  is factually and embarrassingly incorrect by quite a bit.

I think you missed the part where I said "warmer and sunnier than you would 'typically' experience". The last time I checked, your average high in November is 19C (66F) and you receive 1.87 inches of rainfall. I was of the impression that you had visited here during the extremely dry, sunny and warm periods of late May 2018, 2019 and 2020, due to the way you phrased your previous post. In which case it would have been warmer, drier and sunnier than you guys typically experience in Christchurch in late spring. That is fact. 

I'm not saying you don't get higher temperatures and more sunlight on average, but you gave off the impression that we were talking about recent late springs here in the southeast of England that have been very dry, very sunny and warm. More so than average. Obviously you have clarified now that you did not visit during this time, but even still I don't see how you can take that out of context to the extent that you have, knowing that I was referring specifically to the springs of 2018, 2019 & 2020. I know you're trying to score points, but it's just getting petty now.

You certainly implied that you had visited over the past 5 years in late May and that the weather has been crap and wet, and then when I refute this and say that the weather here in late May of recent years has been drier, warmer and sunnier than you 'typically' experience in Christchurch in late spring, you then say you haven't visited in the past 5 years now and pull up your climate stats to show what we already know... that you are warmer and sunnier on average, and in spring (not in summer). So I'm not sure what you are proving here? 

But that doesn't change the fact that May 2018, 2019 & 2020 in the southeast of England were factually sunnier and drier than you guys typically experience in late November. Or do you guys typically see 300 hours of sunshine in November with 0.0 inches of rainfall?? Again to put it into context, this is all relative to the fact that I thought you had visited the UK during recent late May's and were contesting that it was in fact cold and wet. I guess the argument becomes irrelevant if you have visited quite a few years ago though, rather than recently. But it still doesn't change the fact that our recent May's, especially late May (when you purport to have visited) have at least been drier and sunnier than you typically are in Christchurch in November. So it doesn't rain here constantly and isn't cold and crappy as you also purport it to be.

Anyway, I'm off to bed. I'm sure I love a good argument just as much as you do, but it's 4am here and you are just rude as f*ck. Like in general. Manners don't cost anything pal. If I stay up any later I'd end up giving you an earful of abuse back. No doubt you'll send some more of it my way... :rolleyes:

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sipalms
4 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Spring 2020, just gone, saw something like 650 hours of sunshine for the UK on average. I think London racked up 700 hours. On the current trajectory, London and the southeast may finish the year on 2,300 sunshine hours.

Ouch. I got some more damning news for you bud.

I just jumped onto the UK climate database and looks like Heathrow is on track for rolling year to date sunshine hours of 1713.2 hours.

Heathrow (London Airport)
Location 507800E 176700N, Lat 51.479 Lon -0.449, 25m amsl
YYYY   MM     Sun Hours
2019   7      194.5
2019   8      201.2
2019   9      156.8
2019  10      74.0
2019  11      51.3
2019  12      56.2
2020   1      50.3
2020   2      62.0
2020   3      148.0
2020   4      235.4 
2020   5      308.6
2020   6      174.9

Total Sunshine = 1713.2 hours

Sunshine data taken from an automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor

 

For the record, that's nearly 600 less sunshine hours than your claim. That's a hell of a lot of sun! Could you explain to us how exactly where that extra sun is going to come from?

You might need to go find the sensor at Heathrow and shine a bright lamp at it all night for a few weeks in a row.

For the exact same period, including a pretty average summer and one of the cloudiest Junes on record? Christchurch recorded 2154 hours.

 

47 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Anyway, I'm off to bed. I'm sure I love a good argument just as much as you do, but it's 4am here and you are just rude as f*ck

Person One:     Makes wild and wonderful claims 

Person Two:     Provides some actual data to challenge said claims

Person One:     "You are rude as f*ck."

 

Sleep tight dear. You need it.

 

Capture88.JPG.52891f970a9c60e9b8aa8a3a26d240f9.JPG


 

Edited by sipalms

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JohnnyKarelian

Having lived in London for 2 years in 2016/2017, I have a little experience on the recent weather there.

Before I moved there, people used to joke at me that I should prepare for shitty weather. But I was actually pleasantly surprised with the amount of sunshine, especially during spring/summer.

However, I think that despite the  warmer temperatures recorded, as well as less rain according to UK_Palms, it is not consistent (which is totally normal for the climate, to be inconsistent).

I think the climate is not really warmer, but the extremes are. But they don't change the climate from oceanic to Med.  

I originate from the Netherlands, where there are also changes, it overall became less cold in winter, and with more extreme heat in spring/summer, and definitely less rainfall in recent years in spring. (but late fall and winter saw much more rain) 

But when you compare the Temperature statistics of for example: 

- Guildford/UK and Delft/Netherlands (inconsistent from warm to cold during spring/summer/fall) 

- Valencia/Spain and Athens/Greece (consistent warm temperatures in summer) 

there are significant differences, which is totally normal being at a different lattitude. 

And to be honest, I hope that difference stays that way, for the sake of health of our planet. 

:happy:

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GottmitAlex

I am ignoring this thread. Honestly, too much bickering and bad blood.

gute Nacht.

 

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sipalms
9 minutes ago, GottmitAlex said:

I am ignoring this thread. Honestly, too much bickering and bad blood.

Fair enough. I ignored this thread too until the OP started making bizarre and unsubstantiated claims about their climate.

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Silas_Sancona
49 minutes ago, JohnnyKarelian said:

A couple thoughts .. then i too move on..

I think the climate is not really warmer, but the extremes are. But they don't change the climate from oceanic to Med.  

 If , as is currently occurring globally,  the extremes in an area are continually trending drier and warmer,  things will shift as those things that " Can't stand the heat/ longer dry spells" pack it up and move somewhere else, Ie: the assemblage of plants / animals within the current/ cooler climate.. and be replaced by whatever inhabits areas to the warmer south..  It is well known the subtropical belt is expanding further and further north.. as are those eco-zones within it / bordering it.. inc. so called "Mediterranean zones"   In California, our Med. zone is slowly but surely creeping more and more to the north toward Oregon as the southern half of the state shifts into the more desert-like climate that  presently exists just to the south in Northern Baja ( Mexico ). This isn't restricted to one area of the globe or another.. if one area is shifting, everything across the globe is shifting.  No denying it  -or the Science involved.

So yes, under the assumption that current trends are to continue, -if not accelerate going forward ( thanks in big part to us humans )-  before settling into whatever the new equilibrium will be, perfectly plausible England- at least some portion of..  may be starting to.. and continue to shift closer to what we think of as a real Med. climate -of some sort- That general climate zone would be the next step -up- so to say.


And to be honest, I hope that difference stays that way, for the sake of health of our planet. 

if there is one thing that is true about our planet, it is that this human " idea" of things staying/remaining the same -constant-  will never exist..  Constant change is healthy, both for us, and the planet we ride around on for a few decades.. for as long as we're allowed to.  

 

 

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UK_Palms

@sipalms Will you chill out.
 

The southeast coastal areas average 1,900 hours of sunshine annually and have been as high as 2,100 before. So what I have been saying is not as far fetched as you are making out. Also I was referring to 2020 as a whole, as in Jan 1st - December 31st) not the past 12 months up until now. You’re quoting July 2019 - July 2020.
 

I was watching a BBC weather report the other day, working in conjunction with the Met Office, and they said Eastbourne and Brighton are on course for up to 2,300 hours of sunshine for 2020, following the record levels of spring sunshine, and assuming the warm, dry trend continues throughout August and possibly into September. 

Again you are taking things out of context as I was talking about the year 2020 as a whole, not the past 12 months up to now, which you are quoting. I accept London won’t see the same levels of sunlight that the southeast coast does, and it almost certainly won’t reach 2,300 hours, but London does appear to be on course for 2,100 hours of sunlight as well in 2020 looking at this year’s trajectory, helped obviously by the 700+ hours in spring alone. Again, Eastbourne, Brighton, Bognor and Ventnor look set to reach at least 2,2000 hours (taking into account the long-term forecasts). 

You can pull up whatever figures you like to cover the past 11-12 months, but we’ll see what figures the southeast coast and London finish on for 2020 as a whole, come Dec 31st. If places like Eastbourne, Hastings, Brighton, Ventnor etc are miles off the 2,200 - 2,300 figure, you can say rightfully say ‘I told you so’ and I will admit that I should have listened to you. Until then just chill out and see how the next few months pan out here, weather-wise...

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UK_Palms

On another note, the Met Office are now saying that it is going to reach 37-38C on Friday and Saturday again here.
 

Looks like the all-time record of 38.7C may be under threat with some of their computer models showing 39C...

At least August isn’t disappointing after June & July were cooler than average...

 

853DC8C4-29F2-4231-AADD-2BB348FF2B09.jpeg

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