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Silas_Sancona

Ready, Set, ...Scorch!

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Silas_Sancona

After a breezy, but nice afternoon, as a dry front slips pass to the north, Get ready.. Looks like the heat is returning, with a vengeance here ..and across a good chunk of the Southwest/ CA over the next several days. 

Thus far, While many areas of Southern CA received record rain, we have avoided much in the way of early season excessive heat, experiencing a gradual, few days warmer / couple days cooler kind of pattern.. Tomorrow starts a significant pattern change. Large High pressure that has lurked off the west coast, ( off Southern CA in this case ), looks to make it's first big run at the coast over the next several days. While a mid spring bump up in temps isn't atypical here, this time around looks to effect a pretty broad area. 

Current forecast suggests we'll clock our first official 90s tomorrow, which, ironically enough will be the latest that has happened since 1995, or 25 years..  Doesn't stop there. Current forecast is also suggesting we'll see our first 100 /100+ readings by Saturday.. which, if that plays out, would tie for the 2nd quickest # of days between highs hitting 90 and 100F ( 3 days ). Quickest happened in 1994 when only 2 days separated the first 90s /100s of the year that year.  While not likely, ( supposed to reach 98F ) its possible we could hit 100 on Friday if the strength / position of the High shifts a tad.

After Saturday, we stay in the 101-104F range until at least next Wednesday.. Lows rise into the low 70s from Sunday on forward..

Forecasts i have looked over for Southern CA suggest mid/ upper 80s, maybe some 90s ( west of the deserts ) for a few days, maybe cooling off over the weekend, before possibly getting hotter next week. Bay Area/ Central Valley could see 80s/ likely some 90s later on. 12Z run on Pivitol WX's CFS model suggest this might be a preview for a bigger heat wave around the middle of May for both areas / rest of the state/ region.. 18Z Tropical Tidbits GFS is suggesting a possible run at 110F in the low low Desert around El Centro /Yuma on the 1st. 

Heat will extend up in to Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico also..

As the saying goes, " Spring has to end sometime "   Gonna happen pretty quickly this time around..  Get the shade and water ready..

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SailorBold
On 4/21/2020 at 8:14 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

After a breezy, but nice afternoon, as a dry front slips pass to the north, Get ready.. Looks like the heat is returning, with a vengeance here ..and across a good chunk of the Southwest/ CA over the next several days. 

Thus far, While many areas of Southern CA received record rain, we have avoided much in the way of early season excessive heat, experiencing a gradual, few days warmer / couple days cooler kind of pattern.. Tomorrow starts a significant pattern change. Large High pressure that has lurked off the west coast, ( off Southern CA in this case ), looks to make it's first big run at the coast over the next several days. While a mid spring bump up in temps isn't atypical here, this time around looks to effect a pretty broad area. 

Current forecast suggests we'll clock our first official 90s tomorrow, which, ironically enough will be the latest that has happened since 1995, or 25 years..  Doesn't stop there. Current forecast is also suggesting we'll see our first 100 /100+ readings by Saturday.. which, if that plays out, would tie for the 2nd quickest # of days between highs hitting 90 and 100F ( 3 days ). Quickest happened in 1994 when only 2 days separated the first 90s /100s of the year that year.  While not likely, ( supposed to reach 98F ) its possible we could hit 100 on Friday if the strength / position of the High shifts a tad.

After Saturday, we stay in the 101-104F range until at least next Wednesday.. Lows rise into the low 70s from Sunday on forward..

Forecasts i have looked over for Southern CA suggest mid/ upper 80s, maybe some 90s ( west of the deserts ) for a few days, maybe cooling off over the weekend, before possibly getting hotter next week. Bay Area/ Central Valley could see 80s/ likely some 90s later on. 12Z run on Pivitol WX's CFS model suggest this might be a preview for a bigger heat wave around the middle of May for both areas / rest of the state/ region.. 18Z Tropical Tidbits GFS is suggesting a possible run at 110F in the low low Desert around El Centro /Yuma on the 1st. 

Heat will extend up in to Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico also..

As the saying goes, " Spring has to end sometime "   Gonna happen pretty quickly this time around..  Get the shade and water ready..

Lol..yep.  looks like we will be in the 90s as well.. last year the heat came late.  The elevation here plays a big factor in our weather...

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Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Lol..yep.  looks like we will be in the 90s as well.. last year the heat came late.  The elevation here plays a big factor in our weather...

Thats one big + i have heard from people i have talked to in Tucson.. While not quite as high as Albuquerque, nights can cool off better during the summer compared to here, especially just outside the city. Saw on some of your forecasts nights are supposed to stay mild.  Upper 80/ low 90 days, and mid/upper 50s-60s lows are about perfect for spring/ summer growth.

Forecast is still on track for a very hot week ahead. A couple even bumped the forecast high for next Wednesday to 105F.. Another tops us off at 106 next Thursday.. Either way, about 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule for +102F temps if we reach / exceed 105.. Could tie or break a couple records Friday-Sunday.

On a side note, there was an Earthquake ( centered in Douglas ) yesterday, along w/ the small quake experienced out in Los Angeles..  There's also potential sort of disturbance might spin up off Mexico in the next couple days.. Roughly 2 weeks ahead of when the E-Pac Hurricane season starts.. ( May 15th ), and would be 2 weeks earlier than any TC on record in that basin -if- it occurs. Hurricane Center has a special Wx outlook posted for it w/ a 40% chance of organization atm.  

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GottmitAlex
8 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Thats one big + i have heard from people i have talked to in Tucson.. While not quite as high as Albuquerque, nights can cool off better during the summer compared to here, especially just outside the city. Saw on some of your forecasts nights are supposed to stay mild.  Upper 80/ low 90 days, and mid/upper 50s-60s lows are about perfect for spring/ summer growth.

Forecast is still on track for a very hot week ahead. A couple even bumped the forecast high for next Wednesday to 105F.. Another tops us off at 106 next Thursday.. Either way, about 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule for +102F temps if we reach / exceed 105.. Could tie or break a couple records Friday-Sunday.

On a side note, there was an Earthquake ( centered in Douglas ) yesterday, along w/ the small quake experienced out in Los Angeles..  There's also potential sort of disturbance might spin up off Mexico in the next couple days.. Roughly 2 weeks ahead of when the E-Pac Hurricane season starts.. ( May 15th ), and would be 2 weeks earlier than any TC on record in that basin -if- it occurs. Hurricane Center has a special Wx outlook posted for it w/ a 40% chance of organization atm.  

Where abouts in Mexico?

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Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, GottmitAlex said:

Where abouts in Mexico?

Approx 900 miles south/ southwest of the tip of Baja.. Positioned at roughly 12 deg N / 113 W.  If it does anything in the next few days, it will only make it to Tropical depression status before it moves into cooler water to it's northwest.. Would only bring clouds, maybe some extra humidity where ever the remnants go, if the remains don't get shunted east into Mexico itself first. Moisture might be enough to spark a storm or two over some of the mountains here as remnants pass..  Next update from the Hurricane Center will be sometime tomorrow.

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SailorBold
11 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Thats one big + i have heard from people i have talked to in Tucson.. While not quite as high as Albuquerque, nights can cool off better during the summer compared to here, especially just outside the city. Saw on some of your forecasts nights are supposed to stay mild.  Upper 80/ low 90 days, and mid/upper 50s-60s lows are about perfect for spring/ summer growth.

Forecast is still on track for a very hot week ahead. A couple even bumped the forecast high for next Wednesday to 105F.. Another tops us off at 106 next Thursday.. Either way, about 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule for +102F temps if we reach / exceed 105.. Could tie or break a couple records Friday-Sunday.

On a side note, there was an Earthquake ( centered in Douglas ) yesterday, along w/ the small quake experienced out in Los Angeles..  There's also potential sort of disturbance might spin up off Mexico in the next couple days.. Roughly 2 weeks ahead of when the E-Pac Hurricane season starts.. ( May 15th ), and would be 2 weeks earlier than any TC on record in that basin -if- it occurs. Hurricane Center has a special Wx outlook posted for it w/ a 40% chance of organization atm.  

It is and it can.. especially with a good monsoon storm...if that happens it can cool the entire evening into the 60's.  It gets very warm to hot but definitely not as hot as Phoenix with your 90 degree lows.. lol. thats just crazy. I think the warmest low Ive seen here during summer is 79.. .. 85-90 degrees at midnight every summer is warm enough for me.. and it will cool down quickly before sunrise.

 I live basically on an elevated sand dune on the westside of Abq.. its 2-5 degrees warmer here than what they forecast at the airport? 20 miles away..the lows vary depending.  I have seen 90's in May.. especially towards the end of May.. but we may be breaking some official records next week. We will see..  Im glad I have refrigerated air lol.

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Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

It is and it can.. especially with a good monsoon storm...if that happens it can cool the entire evening into the 60's.  It gets very warm to hot but definitely not as hot as Phoenix with your 90 degree lows.. lol. thats just crazy. I think the warmest low Ive seen here during summer is 79.. .. 85-90 degrees at midnight every summer is warm enough for me.. and it will cool down quickly before sunrise.

 I live basically on an elevated sand dune on the westside of Abq.. its 2-5 degrees warmer here than what they forecast at the airport? 20 miles away..the lows vary depending.  I have seen 90's in May.. especially towards the end of May.. but we may be breaking some official records next week. We will see..  Im glad I have refrigerated air lol.

Isn't air conditioning the greatest invention ever?, lol..  Trust me, not looking forward to the 80+ overnight lows we'll see soon enough.. Won't miss it either once back in CA. Hard to sleep, even with the air going when it is 85-90+ at midnight. While areas of San Diego, just inland from the coast ..or back where i grew up in the Bay Area.. can get hot during the day,  really hot nights, even during those rare times the region sees a big surge of humidity / storms move north from a dying tropical system / monsoonal moisture are uncommon. Before leaving CA, i think the warmest low i'd experienced there is in the same ballpark as your example, roughly the mid- 70s.. Maybe 80, once..

Crossing my fingers this year's Monsoon season isn't as bad as last years also..  Looking at past data via the NWS's Monsoon tracker,   back to back years that see as low of rainfall as we did last year don't happen often, even if the overall season doesn't end up being an above average year.. That's pretty much the only way we'll see lows in the 70s / 60s once the heat really kicks in come June.. 

On top of all the weird things that have occurred in 2020 thus far, could be an interesting Monsoon season since this is a "Norbert" year on the E. Pac. Hurricane name list.. in 1984, AZ saw a moderate rain event from a Norbert storm, the infamous, once in 1,000 year flood in 2014?.. From Norbert..  lol..

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GottmitAlex

I imagine most people are like me: the more you care about your palms,  the more satisfaction you get while pondering beside them. It's almost 1:00 AM and I'm outside with them.  21C  guess that says it all.

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gute Nacht.

Edited by GottmitAlex
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Silas_Sancona
14 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Approx 900 miles south/ southwest of the tip of Baja.. Positioned at roughly 12 deg N / 113 W.  If it does anything in the next few days, it will only make it to Tropical depression status before it moves into cooler water to it's northwest.. Would only bring clouds, maybe some extra humidity where ever the remnants go, if the remains don't get shunted east into Mexico itself first. Moisture might be enough to spark a storm or two over some of the mountains here as remnants pass..  Next update from the Hurricane Center will be sometime tomorrow.

And just like that, poof.. Now up to an 80% chance for further development ( still only a Trop. Depression, at best ) between now and Sunday / Monday.. Per this morning's update from the Hurricane Center.  Looks pretty nice on satellite for a wayy out of season distrubance.

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SailorBold

Where is it goin??

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Silas_Sancona
46 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Where is it goin??

Unless something drastic occurs, current forecasts take it somewhere way out at sea. 

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Silas_Sancona
23 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

And just like that, poof.. Now up to an 80% chance for further development ( still only a Trop. Depression, at best ) between now and Sunday / Monday.. Per this morning's update from the Hurricane Center.  Looks pretty nice on satellite for a wayy out of season distrubance.

Boom!.. First tropical disturbance ( Depression ) of the season.. Brief window of opportunity ( 30-40% chance currently ) it crosses the threshold between depression and a named, though minimal Tropical Storm before conditions become unfavorable -for continued development- sometime late tomorrow or Monday..

As for the heat:
101-103F today..
103-105F Sunday **Heat Warning in effect** Will be the earliest on record. Second earliest was issued on May 6th, 2018
We may shatter the April monthly record Thursday with the forecast high bumped from 104-105, to the 106-108F range also.  Oof!

 

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AnTonY

One thing to note also is that the air pollution generated by previously heavy economic activity helped to mask the true extent of warming that has occured, due to the aerosol shielding of the sun rays. So with the drop in pollution from COVID-19, we could be in for an interesting summer:

https://truthout.org/articles/covid-19-may-increase-heat-extremes-this-summer/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191017131431.htm

Edited by AnTonY
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Silas_Sancona

As the un- offical " start " to summer 2020 approaches, it would only be appropriate that another big heat event is also on the way.  Looks like we're about to kick the heat up a few more notches across the deserts by the middle/ end of the week.. Also looks like most of California will get in on this event as well, with most current forecasts suggesting the Central Valley / good portion of the Bay Area may see upper 90s/ - 100/ +100s starting this weekend/ early next week. Only area ( of California ) that may escape this round of heat may be the coastal areas of S. Cal.

After staying rather seasonal thru the weekend ( mid 90s ), temps jump from the low 100s on Monday/ Tuesday, to 109-113F by Thursday, which would be 10+ deg above average and close to record highs for the end of May/ start of June. As hot as this sounds, current forecast is actually a bit tempered compared to earlier forecasts which had parts of the low -low deserts around El Centro / Yuma possibly seeing highs approach 118-120F around the Wednesday-Friday time frame. Numerous fires across Phoenix/ AZ the last several days and conditions only become more extreme next week.

Part of the pull back in current thoughts regarding next weeks' forecasts revolves around two interesting features that may bring parts of Central/ Nor. Cal. some convective showers/ Thunderstorms ( Slow moving cut off low moving northeast from west of Baja toward the San Francisco Bay Area/ Nor. Cal coast / mountains ),  and another cut off low that may get dragged west from central/southern Texas and bring another monsoon season -esque preview of showers/ storms to the mountains/ southern AZ, and most of New Mexico.. with the potential of a few storms for central AZ/ Utah again at some point just before/ after the beginning of June as well..  Also some hints of another cut off low developing ..and spinning.. off Southern CA. later also.  How these two lows move around the upper level High overhead will determine how quickly 110 heat breaks, -or stays put- across the deserts / how quickly the Central Valley /Bay Area cool down next weekend and beyond.. Unlike some of the other quick Monsoon season previews we've had this month, this next episode might stick around longer as the overall pattern setting up over the west may hang around into the start of June.

Even without any rare, out of season showers, any extensive cloud cover across the region may pull temps back to the low 100s by the end of next weekend, at least briefly.  Lows warm from the mid 60s over the weekend, to close to 80, maybe above 80F in some spots by next Friday.. a bit ahead of schedule for that kind of  heat overnight too..

Looking at the bigger picture, certainly looks like we're revving up the 4-Corners, Monsoon High on schedule, maybe slightly earlier than average this year.. 

Regarding it, since the Noaa's " start " to the season is about 2 weeks away..  Still no real signals on how Monsoon season may play out across the Southwest this year.. Some models used by the Climate Prediction Center lean slightly wet across the region during the  July - end of September/ start of October time frame,  others lean dry, or shunt wetter conditions off to the east most of the time.. Have seen a couple models shared on twitter showing possibly moister conditions for CA. this summer also.. No sure i buy into them, doesn't take much to break any precip. records in most of CA during the summer anyway..

While a lack of a developing El Nino may mean less moisture from East Pacific Tropical systems this year, somewhat negative/ neutral, La Nina- leaning conditions may create an ideal thermal gradient up off Baja Sur that helps generate more Gulf Surges this summer.. Gulf surges are very important for transporting hot/humid moist air up the Gulf of California into AZ/ and Southern CA. More of them, especially if deep (  = extensive through the low/ mid/ upper levels of the atmosphere ) greatly enhances chances for rain across the region.  Also possible an active Gulf of Mexico/ Atlantic Hurricane season sends more remnant, easterly waves west across Texas/ N. Mexico toward the Southwest this year also..  With that said, would be quite surprised if this summer ends up as dry as last summer.. 

Considering how odd this year has been, so far, can't see the summer ahead being dull..  Certainly won't be lacking heat, lol. 

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Silas_Sancona

Our first " Open Oven, cranked to high " sizzler of the year..  At 8:18pm, currently 97 in Downtown Chandler, with many other neighborhood stations still sitting between 100-104F within the general area on this side of town. Downtown Wx station ( Chandler.. i don't use Phoenix ) peaked at 113F around 5pm. 111-114 were the most common readings across most neighborhood stations. A few topped that today.. In the 3 hours the air conditioner is turned off to save energy ( and $$ on the monthly bill this time of year ) indoor temp. reached 86F right at 6pm.

Looking back at today, last year? Was 88F.. Didn't officially record our first 100-100+ high until the 9th of June.. Anything at/above 110 didn't occur until July 11th. so yea,.. We're well ahead of schedule, and last year..

Interesting set up across the region as well as we end the month.. Upper low currently off S. california is starting to move northeast toward the Central Coast / S.F. Bay Area providing a rare opportunity for some elevated Shower/ T-storm activity to pass overhead overnight and tomorrow. Same storm may provide more intense storm activity further north as the upper low moves north toward Oregon and Washington.. Noticed some robust storms forming over the Sierras around Lake Tahoe around sunset on regional visible Satellite.

At the same time, as the intense high overhead starts being nudged east, return flow around it is pulling in some moisture from Texas and Mexico. While mostly high based, storms that formed today across southeastern and eastern AZ were enough to push some outflows north toward Phoenix, causing our local weather service to issue the season's first dust storm advisory briefly across areas to my southeast. "Debris" clouds ( decaying remnants from those storms ) provided a decent sunset as well..  Appeared, at least on radar, some storms popped up as close as near Florence. Some other, more intense..but brief storms popped up south of Tucson and over the Mountains down there also.. Activity may continue into the weekend and might expand a touch west.. Not anticipating anything here though, too early.. but, perhaps a hint of things to come..

Heat moderates a bit over the next few days, but isn't going anywhere. Might be another, slightly better push of moisture over the area early to mid-next week as highs pull back to around 101-104F.  Next round of scorch may follow, and may be hotter than what we saw today.

A picture or two that offers a hint of whats to come.. Dust, Sizzling sunsets, and hopefully some good summer storms this year, ..and not just over the mountains, or locked up all season in the southeastern corner of the state. lol. 

First passing, outflow debris from a "southeasterly moisture surge" of the season, a bit ahead of schedule..
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On a side note, interesting Tweet shared by the NWS in EL Paso.. Apparently visibility over the area was good enough that they could see the tops of storms that had formed over the Chiricahua Mountains in far southeastern AZ,  a distance of 170 miles to the west..  Pretty cool..

Onto June, 2020..

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Silas_Sancona

Well! That didn't take long, lol..  I guess sometimes when you put it out there, the weather universe replies.. Did in a pretty big way, tonight anyway..  and is yet another well played, unexpected wild card by 2020.

After another sizzler, ( Think we hit 112F again, was to busy monitoring other things and forgot to check. Phoenix nailed the second day above 110 with a high of 111F. May do it again tomorrow, which, i'll have to check again, may break a couple records.. ) had yet another Monsoon season preview, this time,  much more than just a few passing clouds creating yet another stunning AZ sunset..

Before all this, a fairly serious fire broke out up in Cave Creek ( far northern side of the valley ) prompting the issuance of a civil service Emergency by local EMS earlier in the afternoon. Unfortunately, that message got botched while being broadcast and created a bit of panic ( for those who saw it blaring across their T.V. screen, or their phones ) until it was clarified exactly what was happening. Regardless, several homes and other buildings had burnt by about 4pm, and while not huge, compared to fires of a similar significance say in California, was approaching the town of Cave Creek, why the EMS alert was issued.

At the same time, more storm activity had been forecast for the eastern/far southern part of the state again today. Unlike yesterday, no storms popped up in the mountains directly to my east, usually a good indicator of possible outflow-created dust/wind or showers later, if such storms survive the trip off the mountains into this side of the valley.  Today was a ..very out of season.. demonstration of another way we can get storms.. when the flow from the south is strong enough that storms firing over the mountains down by Nogales can generate a gravity wave that travels due north or northwest, bubbling up storms along the leading edge of the moving "wave" in the atmosphere..  This type of storm generation is something you'd typically see in ..August.. when monsoon season is well under way,  not ..on the second to last day ..of MAY.. 

Interestingly enough, the Tucson NWS discussion this morning nailed something unusual that likely influenced storm activity today.. a sort of Dry Line that developed overnight across the east central part of the state, focused in an area bounded just east of Phoenix to the west, but west of the AZ/New Mexico state line. Dry lines separate moister air from very dry air over a short distance. These wavering boundaries are more typical of what helps create the severe storms east of the Rockies, on the Plains. when they set up here in AZ, it is usually in the fall, as Monsoon season is winding down.

Regardless, in the last post, when is said, "Dust, Sizzling Sunsets, and hopefully a hint of whats to come this year",  Pretty much had everything today. On top of that, more, " Ahead- of- the- season" activity is possible, even here in the east valley, this week. NWS's start date for monsoon season here is June 15th, while most people use the " Dew points have to be above 55deg for 3 days in a row" rule as the start to the season.  While our local NWS didn't record any at the airport here in Chandler ( not sure how, as you'll see in the pictures, it was pouring over there ).. Guaranteed it poured at my house for about 30 minutes.. Enough to get the gutters running, street soaked, and leave a few puddles behind on the driveway..  Going with my gut, i'd say i got about 0.03-0.06" ..that, sounds-like Hail- falling kind of rain too, Not the spitty stuff we usually see, if it sprinkles at all this time of year.. Never seen such a monsoon level type of storm occur this time of year the entire time i have lived here..  Guess i shouldn't be surprised, all else considered this year so far..  If it only gets crazier once the season starts,  bring it..  all of it.

Breaking this up into two parts. For the Sunset pics, go to the "Sunsets " thread in the Ohauna Nui section of the Forum.  Pretty wild stuff tonight..
 

Not too much to see here, just some distant storm tops building up down toward Tucson, and a small cell trying to look interesting further west..  About now, dust was being detected blowing across the I-10 down by Eloy. On radar, looked like activity was making a break toward the north.. but, as often happens unless conditions are primed, activity usually dies well before reaching the fringes if the area. Regardless, some pretty big, for the time of year, storms building down there and further south in Sonora.
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Hot Crepuscular rays!, why not, who doesn't like Crepuscular rays, right?
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Interesting, Are we taking a swing today? ( Dust advisory issued just to our south around the same time )
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Making a break for it.. ( Outflow rapidly moving north/northwest along the atmospheric " Gravity Wave " )
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We have dust!..   Off in the distance to the east, and building in all around..
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..and   ..Crazy, Wild Cat Eyes? ( above the dust, on the left in the picture ) Storms did start out down around Tucson :bemused:
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Oh we have Dust alright..
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Touch down!..  Not too bad this time..
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Some nice Rainshaft shots..
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And an attempt at a Fire Curtain out back, while it pours..
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...And that Sunset??... Head South:D:winkie:
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Tried to get some Lightning shots or a quick vid. but while around, strikes/flashes were widely spaced, so not really worth trying to capture this time.. some nice cloud to cloud, with a few closer strikes here and there regardless..

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SailorBold

I got 0.73" of rain last night.  Which is unusual because.. well it was a drizzle that lasted hours.... and its a monsoon total.. and the clouds stayed right above us...  this was 1.. either that last push of funky pineapple express from winter.. or 2... the entire monsoon season wrapped into one evening.. in where its about to go full blast high pressure.. and consequently.. we are about to be grilled cheese sammiches.

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Silas_Sancona
4 hours ago, SailorBold said:

I got 0.73" of rain last night.  Which is unusual because.. well it was a drizzle that lasted hours.... and its a monsoon total.. and the clouds stayed right above us...  this was 1.. either that last push of funky pineapple express from winter.. or 2... the entire monsoon season wrapped into one evening.. in where its about to go full blast high pressure.. and consequently.. we are about to be grilled cheese sammiches.

Been wondering if you'd been getting any rain out of this over the past week. Tucson, at least parts of town, got just over an inch yesterday from a storm.. Several other spots around them have seen rainfall totals over an inch already also over this past week  which is very unusual for this time of year.  Storms fell apart/ moved more toward the west and missed us entirely.. Did have some breezes, light dust, and a rapid rise in Dew Points for a few hours last night though.

Almost certain the reason for this out of season, monsoon season primer is exactly that..  a " growing louder " hint at an early onset Monsoon across the region.. NWS in Tucson mentioned something related to that in their morning weather discussion yesterday also.  That said, an early start doesn't always = a wet summer.. just that the pattern that brings moisture north or west ( and all that wonderful :rolleyes: 110+ heat here ) appears to be getting it's act together early.. Still some influence from passing storms from the northwest.. which has kept away 115F highs / daily highs above 105F heat so far but think that may be about to change by mid-month..

Northern Gulf of CA. is also running warmer than usual atm. Once Sea Surface Temps. there reach / exceed 29-30c, that's when we'll start seeing Gulf Surges and better opportunity for storms / rain. Current temps down there are 26-28c last i'd checked. Persistent, stagnant high pressure centered over AZ / NM / Nor. Mex. will easily push those temps higher if the high keeps reasserting itself after a system to the north passes by.

As usual, if the pattern is setting up for a good ..and early start to.. Monsoon season, you'll get it first. New Mexico almost always starts seeing summer rain first before we do.

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TexasColdHardyPalms

We saw 99 on april 5th and will finally get back to that range, albeit with high dew points, this weekend.  

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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

We saw 99 on april 5th and will finally get back to that range, albeit with high dew points, this weekend.  

We're supposed to dial the heat back ..to the mid/upper 90s.. by Saturday, and they may stick around for at least the start of next week before more 110- 110+ returns later.  Phoenix is already breaking records w/ overnight lows w/ a low of 87F Tuesday morning, and 85 today...  Previous record ( for Tuesday morning ) was 82, set in 2013. Today's is 2 deg above the previous record of 83F set in both 1977, and 2006.. Normal "low" for both days is  ..74F..

Mid/ upper 80s in the mornings already?, Mid/ Late July -August, when we normally see such lows is going to be interesting this year, especially if there is more moisture around also, lol..

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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SailorBold

Was 101 yesterday and 96 today...... and I got 0.11" of rain this morning and a low of 65..way too funky... it was a warm evening too.. above 80 past 1 am...  there is a cold front coming in now.. going to drop our highs by 15-20 degrees..

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Silas_Sancona
13 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Was 101 yesterday and 96 today...... and I got 0.11" of rain this morning and a low of 65..way too funky... it was a warm evening too.. above 80 past 1 am...  there is a cold front coming in now.. going to drop our highs by 15-20 degrees..

Was a much more tolerable 92F compared to 112F on Thursday. Think we hit 108 yesterday.  Lows are back to normal also. May even bottom out around the lower 60s by Tuesday Morning before we start another stretch of 105-105+/ upper 70-80 deg lows after Wednesday.  Much better than the record mid-upper 80s we had last week.

Missed out on the rain, though it tried. Seemed like everything was moving so fast that showers / small storms couldn't really build up enough momentum and break through the dry air near the surface before they were half way to Flagstaff.. Interesting sunset/ mean looking clouds again though. Even had a few surprise flashes / strikes from a rather innocent looking shower pass just to the west around sunset last night.

A few pics.
Looks alot more threatening than it was. Would be the first sign of a long stormy night if we'd had more lift to get something going..
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DSC08628.JPG.793e6a0dffcb2d86a054ac43dc4430f2.JPG

 

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