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Hurricane Season 2020 Cyclone Information

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Nj Palms
6 minutes ago, Nj Palms said:

 

 

Isaias was a nasty storm up here. Just a small video of some of the winds. They got much stronger than this. Gusts inland were around 65-75mph. Coast had 75mph+. Storm even spawned some tornadoes. A gust of 109mph was recorded in one of them. Pitch pines snapped in half. 1.5m lost power too and some won’t get it back til next week. Below is damage from that tornado in Cape May County Nj. 

F8D888B0-D86F-48C0-8FE1-145C76B2A865.jpeg

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669CD9F5-94A9-47C3-9DE7-F1A39BCF443F.jpeg

F080D236-B5B8-493A-9D09-B9991C18CAA8.jpeg

Edited by Nj Palms
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JLM

I almost get the feeling that Isaias was worse in the Northeast than it was in the Carolinas :(

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Cindy Adair
On 7/30/2020 at 9:02 PM, JLM said:

Oh my word, Puerto Rico got slammed lastnight i know that for sure.

It took until yesterday to get "unpacked" and cleaned up after Isaias hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm. The river that runs through Mayaguez (SW PR) low elevation commercial district over flowed for the first time in more than 50 years. 

I am at 1000 feet and far from that river, but lost power and water for 12 hours, got it back for a few hours and then it went off again for several days. Never lost internet though.

My chain saw came in handy once more. Minimal wind, but lots of rain for sure. Even yesterday I heard a loud crack and a big Cecropia (Yagrumo) tree crashed down.  Happily it can just rot where it fell.

Nothing like the damage after hurricane Maria in 2017, but there are those who lost their homes. I'll be donating a new set of sheets and other household goods for a benefit in the parking lot of the local Home Depot this Saturday. I heard about terrible tornadoes secondary to this storm in Suffolk, VA near my old home town.

I'll be happy to get through the scariest months of September/October here as I still need new doors etc. from Maria's visit. Good luck everyone with storm season 2020!

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Nj Palms
7 hours ago, JLM said:

I almost get the feeling that Isaias was worse in the Northeast than it was in the Carolinas :(

Definitely. Still hear chain saws and generators.

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JLM

@Cindy Adair Thankfully it was nothing like Maria. Glad to hear everything is semi-ok down there in PR!

@Nj Palms By the way it looks, generators and chainsaws will continue for a little while longer as there are still over 10k outages in Ocean County. Hope everything goes well from here!

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JLM

As of this morning we have a tropical wave tagged with 10% chance to develop. No model support on this one, but still watching for more in the models as time goes on. This should allow plenty of time to atleast clean up from Isaias before the rest of the season comes.

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Nj Palms
1 hour ago, JLM said:

@Cindy Adair Thankfully it was nothing like Maria. Glad to hear everything is semi-ok down there in PR!

@Nj Palms By the way it looks, generators and chainsaws will continue for a little while longer as there are still over 10k outages in Ocean County. Hope everything goes well from here!

80-85% of ocean county lost power. I was one of the lucky ones that didn’t! Very surprised.

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JLM

Invest 95L is something to watch, but it likely wont be a problem. I say this lightly, as things can change very quickly. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for development past 5 days, so nothing to worry about as of now!

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JLM

Tropical Storm Josephine and Tropical Storm Kyle doesnt look to be a problem. Josephine my bring some showers to Bermuda middle to end of next week. Other than that, the Eastern Pacific is poppin right now! There is Tropical Depression Ten-E, along with Invests 93E, 94E, and 95E. Invest 95E might bring impacts to the coast of Mexico, and does have a shot at being a major hurricane. Definetly something to watch if you live on the coast of Mexico. All of this activity is in association with a strong MJO that is moving across that basin. This activity in the EPAC should reflect in the Atlantic within a couple of weeks, and will likely continue for a while. A hurricane outbreak is very possible in the Atlantic soon, so if you have not already gotten prepared, DO IT NOW!! One of many models is already picking up on possible Laura and Marco. Cant believe its not even September yet and the next name up is already Laura.

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JLM

Invest 97L: This invest area over the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As this area moves at a fast pace to the west, it should begin to slow down some. This would allow for it to develop into a tropical cyclne of some sort. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with this one especially, as it may not even form.

Invest 98L: This area has most of my attention, this one will likely develop into a Tropical Depression within the next couple of days. This area may possibly become a Tropical Storm before reaching the islands. This may go on to further develop, but for right now, everyone in the Greater Antilles needs to be watching closely aswell as prtions of the Lesser Antillies. This includes the Bahamas and Cuba. Impacts, if any, to the US are very uncertain at this time and no area can be pinpointed as of right now. An area of high pressure will likely steer this west instead of turning out to sea, so a gulf storm is very possible out of this system. Get your hurricane kits ready, we are just getting started.

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JLM

Tropical Depression 13 has formed out of Invest 98L. The cone puts it near south Florida in 5 days. Before that time there is uncertainty as always. We dont currently know if this system will track over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. If it tracks over these islands, it shouldnt be a huge problem. I say that with regards to the US, if this moves over those islands, the mountains cannot hold all the water, and flash flooding will be a major problem throughout those islands. If 13 tracks north of these islands, it could have a shot at becoming a hurricane, maybe even our first major hurricane. We will see how it tracks, but for now, plan and prepare for a Tropical Storm impact if you live in the Lesser Antilles aswell as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. If you live further west in places like the Bahamas and Florida, for now plan for atleast a Category 1 hurricane. The chances that Florida will be missed by this are fairl low, unless it tracks thru the Florida Straits. The global models, atleast the ones that feel like projecting TD13, show a possible threat to the Gulf Coast aswell sometime towards the middle to end of next week. For right now, keep watchng this system, and refer to your local NWS office for the best information. Tropical Storm Watches are in affect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

Invest 97L has increased in organization and will likel become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. Right now, the models that feel like projecting 97L were showing a Central Gulf Coast threat, this has shifted west overnight to the Texas Gulf Coast. If 97L can become developed and strong enough, this has a small shot at becoming a hurricane aswell. For now, heavy rains can be expected across Central America including the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and possibly the western tip of Cuba. If you live anywhere from the Alabama Gulf Coast to Northeast Mexico, plan for potential tropical storm impacts within the next week or so. This one is another one to watch if you live along the Gulf Coast.

A new tropical wave with a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days, located over Africa, does not currently look like a threat to land. If this changes i will let you know, but for now this one is nothing to worry about and will likely be working for the Central Atlantic Fish Market.

We are approaching the peak of hurricane season, so you should already be prepared, if you are not, now would be a good time to do so, especially with supplies already running short.

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Moose

Not looking good for our friends in Louisiana 

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Exotic Life
4 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Hope the folks along the Gulf Coast, particularly Louisiana and Texas, come out of this alright:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-26-hurricane-laura-forecast-rapid-intensification-texas-louisiana

Agreed. People defitenly need to prepare themselves.  This storms is rapidly increasing in strength, faster than any model have shown. 
Could be a strong Cat4 and I have seen with big storm surge as well. 

Our summerstorm this past night is nothing compared this kind of monsters. 

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Meangreen94z

Looks like Laura will miss Houston almost completely. Lake Charles will get a direct hit. Currently 150mph sustained winds, may break Category 5 before Landfall. A surprise monster storm.

60A9DC74-81FC-473D-8DE6-AA7F471BCAFE.jpeg

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Meangreen94z

In the past storms like Katrina, Rita, and Ike lost power as they approached the coast, due to cooler waters . The waters along the coast obviously are very warm. A few days ago this was predicted to be a tropical storm or Category 1 upon land fall. Marco that preceded completely fell apart and didn’t even make the news.

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JLM

Hurricane Laura is one for the record books. She is likely going to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, and our beloved RECON planes are flying around in there finding a pressure down to 938mb and sustained winds at the surface of possibly 160mph. A dropsonde earlier picked up 180-205mph sustained wind further up in the atmosphere. This reminds me of Hurricane Michael back in 2018. For those of you in Cameron and Lake Charles, LA, just know you are in our thoughts and prayers tonight and for many nights to come. I cant possibly process the pictures and video we will see when the sun rises tomorrow over a hurricane ravaged Louisiana.

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palmsOrl

Major Hurricane Laura made landfall at Cameron, Louisiana at 1 a.m. with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 938 mb.  

176964252_Screenshot_20200827-0237142.thumb.png.c07402b0cd96b4d6583fc1a8a7c6c879.png

 

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JLM

That purple polygon seen on that image above is an "Extreme Wind Warning". The last one issued before lastnight was for Hurricane Michael back in 2018. The NWS Lake Charles radar dome was ripped off lastnight. The last radar scan was right when Laura made landfall lastnight. It will be a while before the radar will be back up and running in that area of Louisiana.

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JLM
  • Tropical Storm Nana: Nana (pretty awkward name) is expected to be making landfall as either a strong Tropical Storm or a minimal hurricane. The difference between a strong Tropical Storm and a minimal hurricane, well, there is no difference. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for a large portion of the coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along with Hurricane Watches for rest of the coast of Belize. Its been a little while since a possible hurricane has threatened this area of the world. 
  • Tropical Depression Omar: Omar became a Tropical Depression right before i sent this chat message. Omar has no threat to land.
  • Invest 91L: Invest 91L is currently sitting out in the middle of the MDR, and in fact, it will likely be in that spot for the next 5 days. 91L currently is no threat to land, but this may change once it starts moving towards its destination. Whether that be out to sea or the Gulf of Mexico. Details are not very clear, and most models dont do much with it.
  • Area of Interest #1: This area of mess is located on the coast of Africa, and it already had a 60% chance of development. The models show an out to sea track with this one, but things can change quickly in the tropics. The land threats as of right now for a potentially developing Tropical Cyclone are the Cape Verde Islands.
  • Area of Interest #2: This area does not exist on the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, but i am noting it as some models are showing this might become a Tropical Depression OVER Africa. This would spell 2020 for one, and two if this verifies it could be a problem down the road. GFS ensembles show a hurricane entering the Gulf after crossing Florida. I think its this wave, but it might be one of the others. Either way, that solution is 16 days out and nothing to worry about.

Another thing, i dont just highlight storm names and stuff random colors :D

Color Code: AOI (Low chance), AOI (Medium chance), AOI (High chance), Invest, Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Category 1, Category 2, Category 3, Category 4, Category 5.

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JLM

Tropical Storm Paulette: Paulette was just named in the MDR as of 10/11am. Paulette is expected to reach maximum intensity of 60mph within the next few days before shear and dry air become a problem for it. This will likely turn out to sea.

Tropical Depression Eighteen: Eighteen has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm conditions are likely to occur in the Cape Verde Islands as it passes through, Eighteen is forecasted to become a hurricane. This will turn out to sea.

Area of Interest #1: An area of low pressure located just southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward or west-northwestward. Chances remain low for this to develop, with chances being at 30% in 5 days. This will be headed in the direction of the Carolinas, should development occur, this will need to be watched closely.

Area of Interest #2: A tropical wave moving west over Burkina-Faso, Africa now has a medium chance of development in 5 days at 40%. Models have yet to agree on a possible scenario. The possibility that the Bermuda high builds back in before this makes it too far into the Atlantic is there. This system bears watching long term.

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JLM

We have A LOT to talk about, so get comfortable.

Tropical Storm Paulette: Paulette has really held together, battling high wind shear. Winds are currently sustained at 60mph. There are a few factors that will determine Paulette's future, one of these being how much the wind shear gets to Paulette. The shear will continue for the next couple of days, Paulette is expected to weaken during this time period before restrengthening. This is important, how strong the storm is will ultimately dictate how far east or west it might go. If Paulette weakens substantially, it may impact Bermuda. If it can hold together and remain a strong Tropical Storm, it could very well become a hurricane, and would only be an issue for shipping interests.

Tropical Storm Rene: After Rene's quick weakening phase to a Tropical Depression lastnight, it has once again become a TS with sustained winds at 40mph. Rene is still expected to become a hurricane for a brief period of time. After its peak, it will begin to weaken and should die out over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.

Invest 94L: This area of interest has been dubbed Invest 94L, it has a 30% chance to develop in the next few days before moving inland over North Carolina bringing showers and storms this week. The low level circulation that is. The mid level circulation will continue west to west southwest towards the Bahamas and South Florida. This will be responsible for a wet weekend across S FL. Scattered rainfall totals of 1-2 inches with localized 3 to maybe 4 inches, depending on how storms set up.

Soon-to-be Invest 95L: Oh boy, here we go. This is the one that has had everyone on edge from the Azores to Trinidad and Tobago. All you need to take from this one is that its hurricane season, and you need to be prepared! Now for the painfully long discussion. As this wave rolls off the coast of Africa, it is expected to tighten up pretty quickly. The speed of this wave will play a HUGE role in where this one will go. If we have a slower wave coming off Africa tomorrow, it will likely get tangled up with a trailing wave and turn north much earlier. This is a out to sea scenario. This is where it gets interesting, this is also where the models are struggling. If our wave is faster, it will likely go more west towards the Caribbean. The interesting part is the trailing wave might end up being its own tropical cyclone if this scenario is correct. We would then have two different systems spinning from the same energy source. The EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) has a HUGE spread in its guidance, showing a possible hurricane landfall as far west as Mexico, or an out to sea situation. The GFS has displayed this at one point showing two different systems. The main wave just sp happened to get in the Gulf on the particular run. The GEFS-Para Ensemble package has shown on the latest run a more favored Caribbean system. Now for the steering currents. Ive not been too familiar with the possible steering currents. All i know as of right now, the signs are pointing towards the possibility of a strengthening Bermuda high as this is moving west (if this is the case). That would likely cause it to rapidly intensify into a destructive hurricane. Past the first fork in the road, steering will be the second. If this system does similar to Laura where it tracks over the islands, expect a weaker system in the mid range. This is really all i can pass on to you right now, as any storm that could possibly be approaching the Caribbean would be 3-5 days out. If you havent already gotten prepared, now is the last chance. We still have a Cape Verde season to go and also the Central America Gyre season, so GET PREPARED!! This has a 50% chance to develop in 2 days, and an 80% chance to develop in 5 days.

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JLM

Well....the South Florida showers and storms this weekend now has a 20% chance to develop. The trailing wave behind soon-to-be 95L also has a 20% chance. :bemused:

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JLM

Tropical Depression Nineteen has formed over the northern Bahamas. TD19 is expected to become Tropical Storm Sally when it moves nto the Gulf of Mexico where it has a shot at becoming a hurricane. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect tonight for TD19 in South Florida. 40mph wind gusts can be expected along with heavy rain. Expect Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches along the north central Gulf Coast from Lousiana to the Florida Panhandle later in the weekend, potentially tomorrow. Get prepared!

 

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JLM

TD19 is making landfall south of Miami, Florida. The system is expected to emerge of the Gulf of Mexico where it will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sally tonight or tomorrow.

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JLM

Possible center relocation south over the FL Keys this morning. This is where most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is located. This could me a stronger more organzed system as a whole. Track could change just based on how strong it gets. As of right now, flooding looks to be the biggest concern along with wind and surge impacts.

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JLM

A new area of interest has been highlighted in the NW Caribbean Sea, it has a 20% chance at developing in the next 5 days. Odds are the chances will rise and we will have a TD in the NW Caribbean within the next 5-7 days. Models have been on top of this one for quite a while. Right now just something to watch, of course things can and will change, but no worries.

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Palmaceae
59 minutes ago, JLM said:

A new area of interest has been highlighted in the NW Caribbean Sea, it has a 20% chance at developing in the next 5 days. Odds are the chances will rise and we will have a TD in the NW Caribbean within the next 5-7 days. Models have been on top of this one for quite a while. Right now just something to watch, of course things can and will change, but no worries.

The GFS looks interesting Oct 11th, of course this very long range, it will change, hopefully.

 

GFS 10102020.PNG

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JLM
2 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

The GFS looks interesting Oct 11th, of course this very long range, it will change, hopefully.

 

GFS 10102020.PNG

Oh yeah, this will change a lot. Here is a trend GIF from the last 10 runs all on hour 240. Its been all over the place. This does not include the 18z run though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh240_trend.gif

Edited by JLM
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PalmatierMeg
13 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

The GFS looks interesting Oct 11th, of course this very long range, it will change, hopefully.

 

GFS 10102020.PNG

Shades of Charley! I guess the next 2 weeks will tell.

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Palmaceae
16 hours ago, JLM said:

Oh yeah, this will change a lot. Here is a trend GIF from the last 10 runs all on hour 240. Its been all over the place. This does not include the 18z run though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh240_trend.gif

Not showing in the GFS today! Will see if it stays that way.

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JLM

Hopefully it does, but Euro is trying now. Have to watch and see, chances now up to 40% in 5 days.

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JLM

Invest 91L: This isnt officially and invest, and im not even sure if this is the right number or not, but here we go. Lots of uncertainty regarding this disturbance. It had a 70% chance to develop in 5 days. Regardless of whether or not this develops, heavy rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula from this system. It is currently located south of Jamaica, and it has been looking pretty good on satellite all day. Convection has been blowing up all day, and if this continues throughout tonight into tomorrow, a low level center may try to form. At that point, a solution similar to the GFS-Para could be possible. This model showed a tropical cyclone developing fairly quickly, with it even becoming a hurricane before reaching the Yucatan. Other models such as the ECMWF have not been in favor in development at all with this system nor the next system we will talk about.

Area of Interest #2: This area is fresh off the press this afternoon, having just been marked by the NHC less than 2 hours ago. It has a 20% chance to develop within the next 5 days. This area is located just east of the Lesser Antilles. It has also looked pretty good on satellite, it puts me in the mind of how Sally looked while it was still developing over the Bahamas. Spotty, but widespread convection. Models have been picking up on this aswell for a little while. The models that do show development of this system, show this developing south of Cuba and moving Northwest or North-Northwest. This could pose a long range threat to South Florida, but dont count on it. The models are having a hard time with both of these systems right now. Especially now that we have cold fronts dropping southward, it just makes things more complicated. Once again, another reminder that its hurricane season and that you should have a plan!

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kinzyjr

Hope everyone in LA and TX stays safe from Delta.

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JLM

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kinzyjr
3 hours ago, JLM said:

:rant:

Zeta3.PNG

At this point, the Hurricanes sound like their fraternity/sorority members...

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Nj Palms

Tropical Trouble again with Zeta. Louisiana is a magnet for hurricanes this year. Also, 8 years ago we were dealing with Sandy up here.

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JLM

Zeta's impacts are still not over here yet, but the highest wind gust so far here was reported at 57 mph. Im not sure how much rain we have gotten. There is scattered trees down, a few making roads impassable. Power outages estimated to be about 4,000 and still climbing.

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