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Hurricane Season 2020 Cyclone Information

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JLM

Its been a little while since the last update, so here we go! We have a new area marked by the NHC over Hispaniola, this wave will move into the Gulf of Mexico and has a 20% chance of developing before reaching Texas. While there is not much model support for this to develop, what we do have model support on is the rainfall. Rain will be the biggest threat regardless of development and will likely raise rain chances across much of the Gulf Coast and Florida. Areas in Cuba and Hispaniola will likely remain dry as this wont start developing until it reaches the central Gulf, if it develops at all. The Weather Prediction Center expects 1-2 inches of rainfall across Louisiana and Texas coastal communities with 0.5-1 inch amounts further inland into Texas and parts of Louisiana. Heavier amounts are possible locally, but higher totals will remain offshore. Have a great rest of your week! I will be back to update later.

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JLM

We sure do @kinzyjr!

Tropical Storm Gonzalo: Oh boy, here we go. Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed in the central MDR, and is now expected to be the first HURRICANE of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Gonzalo is a very small system so fluctuations in intensity can go both up and down quickly in a moments notice. Gonzalo started as a Tropical Depression and quickly intensified into a 50mph Tropical Storm. At this rate, it would not surprise me if we dont have a hurricane by tonight. The Atlantic basin is generally unfavorable and doesnt really have the background state for hurricanes to develop, or so we thought. Gonzalo is forecasted to peak with winds of 80mph before weakening into a Tropical Storm and impacting the Windward Islands. Areas between of Trinidad and Tobago and Guadeloupe need to pay close attention to this. Since it is so small, it may go between the islands and have barely any major wind impacts. As of right now, you need to be getting prepared. 

Future of Gonzalo: Based on the GFS Ensembles, i have depicted 4 different scenarios as to what happens to Gonzalo. The first is this storm does like most other July storms and dies in the Eastern Carribean. The second has a very strong tropical cyclone going through the Islands and tracking towards the Yucatan, and eventually Mexico or Texas. The third scenario is Gonzalo goes through the Islands as a strong tropical cyclone and moves over Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico and striking anywhere from Louisiana to the Big Bend of Florida potentially as a strong system. The fourth, most unlikely and second most wanted scenario is Gonzalo passes through the Islands as a strong storm and goes out to sea. Gonzalo's future depends on how much intensity it can gain before reaching the Carribean. If Gonzalo is a solid Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane, it has a much higher chance of passing the Eastern Carribean and spreading impacts elsewhere. If it stays weak and generally below 75mph it will likely die off in the Carribean and never show its face for another 6 years. The National Hurricane Center has mentioned rapid intensification in their Gonzalo discussion and is possible, which would increase its chances of survival.

Gonzalo may not make it past the Eastern Carribean, but just in case it does, anyone in the Carribean and Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should closely monitor this storm and check your preparations now so you dont have to fight everyone to get prepared later should it make it past this checkpoint. I will be on top of this one and will continue to update as much as i possibly can. The next post will be on Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico here within the next hour.

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JLM

Invest 91L: Invest 91L asside from Gonzalo, could possibly develop before moving inland within the next few days.

91L has an 80% chance of formation within the next 5 days, and an Air Force Res.erve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is investigating the system now. I do expect the National Hurricane Center to name this a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" to begin issuing advisories on it and issue watches and warnings. Impacts to the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast should be minimal, but you can expect Heavy Rainfall, squally conditions, gusty winds possibly in excess of 40mph along the coast, and storm surge is also possible. All models points at this sytem moving inland over Texas between Brownsville and Houston. Everyone along the Texas Gulf Coast needs to review their hurricane preparation plan, although its only expected to be a Tropical Storm, with the expected favorable conditions and warm ocean temps, this MIGHT strengthen quite a bit before moving onshore. As of right now i myself only expect a 50mph Tropicapl Storm based on model guidence. I will update on this aswell as Gonzalo, both is separate posts like today. The next name on the list is Hanna. 

Something i forgot to add about Gonzalo. Gonzalo is now the earliest "G" named storm on record since the satellite era began in 1966. "Gert" that formed on July 23rd, 2005 was the previous record holder. So far we have broken the earliest C, E, F, and now G named storms since 1966.

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JLM

Tropical Storm Gonzalo: Gonzalo took a bite of dry air yesterday, and has not really recovered to the point of becoming a hurricane. I would be surprised if it does at this point. But do know, tropical storm, and possibly hurricane conditions can be expected in the Windward Islands. 

Tropical Storm Hanna: Hanna became the first "H" name storm to form in the month of July! The previous record was Harvey that formed in early August of 2005. Hanna, if it stays over water long enough, could very well be stronger than what the NHC is currently forecasting. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass, and a Tropical Storm Watch for San Luis Pass to High Island. 

Hurricane Douglas: Douglas is on the downward slope after peaking with of 130mph (Category 4). Douglas may approach the Hawaiian Islands as a Category 1, or it may hit the islands as a Category 1, or it may not be a hurricane at all on approach. Either way, tropical storm and hurricane watches are likely to go up soon.

African Easterly Wave: I have a great deal of concern with this wave, some models are not picking up on development, while others are. One model in particular is the ECMWF. The ECMWF so far being the most agressive showing a Category 3-4 hurricane developing and moving west. Yesterdays run had it nearing the Bahamas, while lastnights run had it entering the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS on the other hand does not even pick up on it for right now.This wave now has a 30% chance to develop in the next 5 days.

AEW.PNG

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JLM

BREAKING NEWS: Hanna has been upgraded to the first HURRICANE of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season! Based on RECON data coming in, this storm may be rapidly intensifying. Hanna still has a few hours over the warm Gulf, so i could see this being a Category 2 at landfall if it moves slow. The National Hurricane Center says it will have 80mph winds at landfall in south Texas. Based on radar data, the "eye" is beginning to clear out, and it may pop soon. Although beautiful on satellite, whats going om under those clouds is not beautiful, and those of you in South Texas need to finish your final preparation (those away from the coast) as TS-Force Winds have moved onshore. A gust of 43mph was reported in Corpus Christi earlier, which will go up throughout the day. Be safe everyone!

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JLM

BREAKING NEWS: Hurricane Hanna has made landfall on Padre Island, Texas at 5pm CDT with winds of 90mph and a pressure of 973mb. Here is a satellite and radar image of Hanna at landfall.

Screenshot_20200725-172610.jpg

Screenshot_20200725-171603.jpg

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JLM

If Hurricane Hanna wasnt enough, Invest 92L has a high 80% chance of formation through 5 days, and a medium 50% chance in 48 hours. This is just 2020 wisdom at this point. Ensembles paint the picture, we could have a major hurricane on our hands within the next week, and it may very well threaten the US. The ensembles for this area are VERY spread out, showing this going out to sea to all the way over to Texas! As if we didnt have enough already, the name will be hard to pronounce too! Isaias is much harder to pronounce than you might think, but even the big shot meteorologists are having to practice! You might think its pronounced "I-say-ee-as", but nope! It "ees-ah-EE-ahs" Either way, get ready for it, even if it doesnt come your way be prepared for the next one.

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JLM

Tropical Storm Hanna: As we know, Hanna made 2 landfalls yesterday with the same intensity (90mph). Those spiral rain bands have set up over the Rio Grande Valley, and FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES have been issued. Its a very bad situation in deep south Texas right now.

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JLM

While there is still great uncertainty on track and intensity with PTC #9, the presumed center has relocated southwest of where it was. The models are catching on to this now and are showing a possible eastern Florida threat along the Gulf coast. Stay tuned!

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PalmatierMeg
9 hours ago, JLM said:

While there is still great uncertainty on track and intensity with PTC #9, the presumed center has relocated southwest of where it was. The models are catching on to this now and are showing a possible eastern Florida threat along the Gulf coast. Stay tuned!

Shades of Irma! It shifted west overnight. Back out to sea, varlet.

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JLM

@PalmatierMeg maybe the ghost of Irma? Lol

 

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JLM

Update on PTC #9: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is now in the eastern Carribean. I am seeing a more westward motion than WNW, but the NHC is official. The track for this is calling for a hit on Hispaniola. Whether or not it actually hits Hispaniola or not, it will still be dampered by the island. If it moves over the island, the tall mountains would likely shred the circulation, and we would hear no more of this storm. If it passes north of Hispaniola, you have wind blowing off the summits and down towards the coast. As this air falls it dries out, with it passing north this air would be pulled into the circulation and would cause it to weaken some. This northward track is becoming less and less likely as it continues to move WNW. IF, and thats a big if, it goes south of Hispaniola, it would have less influence from that island, but, Cuba comes next. Either way land interaction will be a problem for this one as it moves WNW across the eastern Carribean. 

The takeaway from this, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have still not been able to find a well-defined center as of yet, so relocations may happen. When the relocations happen, the model data will follow along with the track and intensity forecasts. Right now i can say there will likely be impacts to South Florida and the Greater Antilles. This is storm is sadly going to be a wait and see type of situation. I will be following this as it happens and will bring some more information later to this developing situation. Be safe!

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cm05

 

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JLM

Oh my word, Puerto Rico got slammed lastnight i know that for sure.

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JLM

Tropical Storm Isaias was named late lastnight, and those mean little H's hae appeared in the cone. This does not any longer look to be an Eastern Gulf threat, but dont let your guard down just yet as things can still change. Isaias has now emerged off of the Dominican Republic, actually strengthening as it was moving over the island. Dont get worried though, there is a wall of shear that will keep this from bursting into a major hurricane within the short term. Long term maybe a different story. Right now the center appears to be moving WNW, but the NHC says NW. We will see, but i do know that the center is located on the western side of the model concensus, this maylead to a slight tick west. Regardless of a Florida landfall, this will bring impacts all the way up the eastcoast, and i mean from Florida to Maine. The conditions looks to be fairly favorable going up the eastcoast so modest strengthening may occur providing it doesnt hit FL. Watches and warnings will continue to climb the eastcoast as we go forward. We do currently have Tropical Storm Watches for a portion of the SE Florida coast. Hurricane Warnings were issued by the government of the Bahamas from Andros Island north to Abaco and Great Bahama. Just know for those of you in Florida, it will be rainy and windy when it passes, especially if you are on the eastcoast. Something else of note is that this my become a hurricane a scrape the coast, so hurricane conditions definetly possible for a small area of the FL coast depending on how close it tracks. We will just have to wait and see. Be getting prepared and be safe. Below is a list of the watches and warnings aswell as the forecast discussion issued at 5pm EDT.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT44 KNHC 302055
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Surface observations in the Dominican Republic indicate that the
poorly defined center of Isaias moved over the southeastern portion
of Hispaniola around 1600 UTC.  There is currently a significant
concentration of convection near the mid-level center that is
located along the northern coast of the island, and recent
surface observations suggest that a new center may be forming
near the area of mid-level rotation seen in satellite imagery. The
advisory position has been placed between the previous estimated
center location and the mid-level center until it becomes more clear
that reformation has occurred.  Earlier ASCAT data that arrived
shortly after the previous advisory and reconnaissance aircraft
data from this morning supported an intensity of 45-50 kt, and since
there has no significant degradation the overall organization since
that time, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The central 
pressure of 999 mb is based on a surface observation of 1001 mb and 
25 kt of wind at Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. 

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310/17 kt. The 
track forecast reasoning has not changed since the previous 
advisory.  The tropical storm should continue on a general northwest 
heading during the next 24 to 36 hours along the southern side of a 
subtropical ridge.  After that time, a trough moving into the 
east-central United States should cause Isaias to turn 
north-northwestward and northward as the western portion of the 
ridge erodes.  By early next week, Isaias is expected to turn 
northeastward and accelerate ahead of the aforementioned trough.  
The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance has shifted eastward and now 
that Isaias is expected to become a stronger and deeper cyclone, 
that also favors a more eastward track.  The updated official 
forecast is a blend of the various consensus aids.  Since the new 
center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in 
the track may occur. In addition, strong winds and heavy rainfall 
will extend far from the center.

Visible imagery has shown significant banding near the mid-level
circulation. Assuming that the center reforms near that feature and
moves away from Hispaniola tonight, strengthening is expected
during the next 24-36 hours and Isaias is now forecast to become a
hurricane.  After that time, there are mixed signals regarding the
amount of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the models 
generally do not show much additional strengthening.  Therefore,
the NHC intensity forecast shows a leveling off in intensity after
48 h.  It still needs to be stressed that that there is a higher
than usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in 
portions of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday and 
Saturday. Preparations to protect life and property should be 
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions will continue to 
spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks 
and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas tonight through Friday, and 
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the 
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch 
has been issued. While storm surge watches are not currently needed 
for this area, they may be required tonight or early tomorrow if the 
forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated 
with Isaias may begin to affect eastern Florida this weekend, 
potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge this weekend along the Florida east coast and spreading
northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early
next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east
coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 19.5N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0600Z 20.8N  72.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  31/1800Z 22.7N  75.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 24.5N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 26.1N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 27.7N  79.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 29.2N  79.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 33.3N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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JLM

BREAKING: Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters find that Isaias is now a hurricane with winds of 80mph! Hurricane Warning now issued for the rest of the Bahamas.

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Hombre de Palmas

Went to bed last night relatively sanguine about Isaias. This morning bit of a different story.

The latest run of the NAM & GFS put it somewhat closer to us, but it still looks like it passes to the east, but not long ago it was going to run up the Gulf Coast... so there's that.

 

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JLM

I still have my suspicions about the Gulf, but not very likely. The storm has been moving WNW to NW overnight, in which it was supposed to be a little more north by this time. FL should still be watching down there, even the west side is not out of the woods just yet.

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kinzyjr

Looks like Isaias will ride along the east coast at this point.

202007311300_Isaias.png

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JLM
Hurricane Warnings have now been issued along the Florida Eastcoast! Tropical Storm Watches have now also been extended north aswell.The forecast
cone has shifted west AGAIN. This puts central Florida in play now aswell. Preparations need to come to completion by early tomorrow morning.

------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida
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Hombre de Palmas

Well, we needed rain, evidently, we are going to get some.

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cm05

Got my eye on this one, it’d be the second tropical cyclone impact in only the span of a couple of weeks, which is incredibly rare for New York, especially this early in the season.

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Jimbean

We might get some tropical storm force winds.

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kinzyjr

Hope everyone is prepared and safe - and that this turns into a non-event.  As @PalmatierMeg has stated, we don't need another issue to deal with this year.

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NOT A TA

Wind's been picking up all day. First band of showers looks like they're coming in off the ocean now, really dark out there.  Meanwhile yesterday I finally deposited a settlement check from insurance for roof damage in Irma almost three years ago. Started with them claiming damage didn't reach deductible, ended with lawsuit. I temporarily patched the roof a couple years ago but it's in bad shape. If it lands here even as a cat one I'll probably end up with more roof damage. Can't wait to get the roof replaced!

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JLM

Thankfully @NOT A TA, it has weakened to a tropical storm and will remain as a tropical storm! I think you are in the clear as the center has moved north of you. The westerly wind shear will keep the TS-Force winds away from you. 

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JLM

Tropical Storm Isaias is no longer expected to be a hurricane! All hurricane watches and warnings have been replaced with Tropical Storm Warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings are being extended up the coast, now with watches for the North Carolina Outerbanks region. Again, this is no longer expected to be a hurricane, but for those of you in the Carolinas and New England, you need to continue to monitor the forecast in case things change. Have your hurricane plan ready, if you dont use any supplies, believe me you will need them eventually so dont discard! Everyone along the Florida coast stay safe today!

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kinzyjr

Got some much-appreciated liquid sunshine out of the deal.

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NOT A TA

We got a bit of rain yesterday and a little wind but really nothing to speak of.  Filled my rainwater collection barrels though. Sun's popped out a few times this afternoon and we've gotten a couple sprinkles.

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JLM

@kinzyjr @NOT A TA

Thankfully not much destruction has taken place. Besides gusty winds doing some good for the palms along with the much needed rain!

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JLM

Isaias is now expected to be a hurricane before landfall in South Carolina, hurricane warnings are now in effect. Tropical storm watches and warnings now extend all the way up the US eastcoast from Georgia to Maine.

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Laaz

Heavy rain here today, but next to no wind except for a few light gusts.

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JLM

Hurricane Isaias has now officially made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina with max sustained winds of 85mph and a pressure of 988mb. Isaias will continue to spread impacts all the way up the eastcoast. Tropical Storm Warnings now extend from South Carolina to the US/Canadian border. Storm surge, flooding, tropical storm force winds, and tornadoes will be an issue. North Carolina has been experiencing several tornado warnings throughout the night because of Isaias. Everyone in North Carolina have a save night! Everyone else in line of the eastcoast will feel affects tomorrow, be safe out there!

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JLM
4 hours ago, Laaz said:

Heavy rain here today, but next to no wind except for a few light gusts.

Great to here that! Glad it wasnt nothing but some beneficial rains! We could all use a good tropical downpour every once in a while.

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PalmTreeDude

I hope everyone is doing alright where it made landfall and in the surrounding areas! It will be here sometime tomorrow (technically today since it is midnight) and I’m sure it will be a tropical storm by then. It won’t be going straight through my area though. Lots of rain! Stay safe. 

6023F1CB-718F-427E-AD9D-A5B0F4266A22.png

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cm05

I’ll be on the east side of this storm (windier side), so I’ll be migrating my plants indoors soon. The forecast has become much drier (<0.50”) and also windier with an increased tornado risk.

Any hope of making a dent in the drought has unfortunately disappeared, the big rains look to train over the interior sections which have already seen more than 2x the rain we’ve had this summer.

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JLM

The Carolinas has some major impacts from Isaias after it made landfall lastnight as a hurricane. Several fires were reported, over 100 tornado warnings have been issued in the last 24 hours, hurricane force winds, and flash flooding. Bertie County, NC seems to have the worst tornadic impacts that i know of. Right now North Carolina has 130,488 outages, Virginia has 210,119 outages, Maryland has 73,433 outages, Delaware has 48,553 outages, New Jersey has a whopping 1,376,495 outages, New York has 520,641 outages, Pennslyvania has 383,101 outages, Connecticut has 282,835 outages, and Massachusetts has 18,408 outages. You can find realtime power outage info here at PowerOutage.US, this site is updated every 10 minutes or less with the latest outage details by state and by county. All you have to do is click on your state, and then click on your county to see how many outages are ongoing in your county. According the the NHC's 4pm EDT Update on TS Isaias, Wind gusts to 66 mph were recently reported at a National Ocean Service Site at Sandy Hook North NJ. Additional wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have been reported across portions of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island during the past hour. This will likely lead to more power outages and downed trees. Flooding wil also be a problem further inland, Isaias is front loaded, so most of the rain and storms will occur before the center passes, clearing should then follow an hour or so afterwards. Be safe out there!

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JLM

Now that Isaias is gone, we must now look to the disturbing future. Colorado State University's Phillip Klotzbach and his team released an update on the Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast this morning. Mind you we have 21 names on our naming list. This forecast includes the 9 that have already formed.

*Includes Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias*

Named Storms: 24

Hurricanes: 12

Major Hurricanes: 5

*Does not include the above mentioned storms*

Named Storms: 17

Hurricanes: 10

Major Hurricanes: 5

The GFS model and its parallel version have been picking up the formation of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in about 16 days of so. No need to deal with this right now because its so far out the Canadian and European models dont even extend out that far. It does look like we will have a period of mostly quite in our basin over the next week or two. During that time make your final preparations now. We are currently on the back side of a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW), which is the supressed phase. The supressed phase does not support the convection needed to form a tropical cyclone. Although, this supressed phase will not last much longer. A standing wave of upward motion is settled over Africa, and does not have any plans of moving for a while. This will mean an increase in AEW activity, and more tropical cyclones. Another CCKW, currently over the Western Pacific, which produced Sinlaku and Hagupit, is moving towards the Atlantic, but will have to go through the Eastern Pacific first. Once the EPAC activity begins to settle down, expect a major increase in Atlantic activity about half way through August. Enjoy the nice and quite tropics while you can, because once this CCKW moves in, there is no stopping the rapid fire. Have a nice, peaceful week!

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