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Hurricane Season 2020 Cyclone Information

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JLM

Hurricane season is fast approaching! Now is the time to prepare! This hurricane season could be a big one, Colorado State is releasing an official outlook this week, Thursday, April 2nd 2020. I will post more information about current storms basin-wide. The first name is Arthur! Hurricane season starts in 60 days!

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Palmaceae

Hurricane Season has been canceled due to COVID-19.  ;)

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JLM

April 1st, 2020 6:53 P.M. CST: The Weather Channel is watching an area of low pressure that might obtain some tropical characteristics. I will edit this in about an hour with the link to this story.

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cm05

I’ve been hearing that this one may be active for the Atlantic Basin. Potential La Niña + warmer than normal SSTs. And all of these highly destructive storms lately have me paying attention: Harvey, Matthew, Maria, Irma, Michael, Dorian, etc.

New York hasn’t seen a landfalling major (Cat 3+) here since the 1980’s, and the waters today are warmer than they were back then. As destructive as Sandy was, it wasn’t the worst case scenario, a study showed that these waters can maintain a Cat 4 with storm surge reaching miles inland.

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JLM

The first 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast is in by Colorado State University!

                             Average          Forecast

Named Storms:         12                   16

Hurricanes:                6                      8

Major Hurricanes:      2                      4

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PalmatierMeg

Another turn of the screw. Of course! So, do you evacuate and face a killer virus  OR  do you stay and face Cat 4 Hurricane Xavier? Life is full of choices.

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RJ
On 4/2/2020 at 2:21 PM, PalmatierMeg said:

Another turn of the screw. Of course! So, do you evacuate and face a killer virus  OR  do you stay and face Cat 4 Hurricane Xavier? Life is full of choices.

Damned if you do Damned if you don't B)

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JLM

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is off to a record breaking early start! Tropical Depression One-E has formed!

Screenshot_2020-04-25-12-56-22.png

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JLM

Penn State's Forecast for this hurricane season is astounding! They are expecting one of the most active hurricane seasons. According to the forceast, it could tie with one of the most active seasons on record. They forecast 15-24 named storms, the 2005 hurricane season produced 27 named storms, not including subtropical storms. With potential La Nina conditions leading into the peak (August, September, October). The whole basin is already above average, with Sea Surface Temperatures in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Carribean, and western Main Development Region, already above 80F. I think we will see Arthur at the end of May, and Bertha at the beginning of June. 

My predictions:

Named Storms: 18-22

Hurricanes: 9-11

Major Hurricanes: 2-6

Give or take 1 or 2 tropical depressions, i see possibly 25 total storms, named or unnamed.

 

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JLM

For those of you who havent heard already on social media. You would know we have some models showing a possible system off the east coast or in the gulf. I will tell you this now, it is way too far out to know whether or not this will even happen, but if it does, makes sure to be prepared! Or atleast prepare as much as you can. Im posting this because i know people like to "fear monger" a ton so i am telling you this now so this wont add on to your stress level. Be safe and be prepared! I wont post anything else about this until the National Hurricane Center has issued an outlook for it.

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kinzyjr
On 4/28/2020 at 2:16 PM, JLM said:

Penn State's Forecast for this hurricane season is astounding! They are expecting one of the most active hurricane seasons. According to the forceast, it could tie with one of the most active seasons on record. They forecast 15-24 named storms, the 2005 hurricane season produced 27 named storms, not including subtropical storms. With potential La Nina conditions leading into the peak (August, September, October). The whole basin is already above average, with Sea Surface Temperatures in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Carribean, and western Main Development Region, already above 80F. I think we will see Arthur at the end of May, and Bertha at the beginning of June. 

My predictions:

Named Storms: 18-22

Hurricanes: 9-11

Major Hurricanes: 2-6

Give or take 1 or 2 tropical depressions, i see possibly 25 total storms, named or unnamed.

 

Let's cross our fingers and hope that either a) it turns out to be a dull year for tropical systems OR b) the systems don't make landfall anywhere and spin off into the north Atlantic where they can become non-events.

11 hours ago, JLM said:

For those of you who havent heard already on social media. You would know we have some models showing a possible system off the east coast or in the gulf. I will tell you this now, it is way too far out to know whether or not this will even happen, but if it does, makes sure to be prepared! Or atleast prepare as much as you can. Im posting this because i know people like to "fear monger" a ton so i am telling you this now so this wont add on to your stress level. Be safe and be prepared! I wont post anything else about this until the National Hurricane Center has issued an outlook for it.

Thank you for presenting the information in a sane and honest way.  In the age of social media, hysteria and outrage are the new opiate of the masses.

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palmsOrl

I wouldn't mind a rainy tropical depression for the Florida Peninsula to tide us over until the rainy season.

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JLM

@palmsOrl You will likely get some good tropical downpours out of this. At this point, tropical development looks about 98% unlikely.

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JLM

Sub-Tropical Storm Arthur is possible within the next 5 days. The Northern Bahamas, U.S Southeast Coast, and Bermuda could have impacts from this system. There is a 50% Chance of development in the next 5 days (120 hours). The next STWO will be issued by 9AM EST or earlier if conditions warrant.

Northern Bahamas Impacts: Squally weather and tropical downpours possible. Gusty winds in excess of 35mph. High Surf and Rip Currents.

U.S Southeast Coast Impacts: High Surf and Rip Currents. Areas of South Florida may have some tropical downpours and gusty winds in excess of 25mph.

Bermuda Impacts: High Surf and Rip Currents.

Stay tuned for more updates!

2020-05-12 (2).png

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PalmatierMeg

And so the madness begins........

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NOT A TA

Jeez, I still need a new roof from Irma!

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JLM

The National Hurricane Center has issued another STWO. This update has INCREASED to a 70% chance of development in the next 5 days (120 hours). The next STWO will be issued at 9AM EST or earlier if conditions warrant.

NOTE: Just because the chances have increased doesnt mean the impacts will be worse. The listed possible impacts above will remain the same unless either the track changes, or intensity changes. Bermuda's impacts may worsen depending on track, everyone else especially South Florida should not change as of right now.

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JLM

Invest 90L now has a 70% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. That being said, impacts have changed.

Southeast Florida Impacts/Florida Keys Impacts: Heavy rain and Tropical Storm force wind gusts. Rain amounts of 1-3 inches possible with locally higher amounts. High surf and Rip Currents.

North and Central Bahamas Impacts: Heavy rain. Tropical Storm conditions possible IF the center develops over the Bahamas (Winds 40-45 mph, gusts 50-55 mph). High surf and Rip Currents.

North Carolina Outerbanks Impacts: Dependent on track and organization, a rain band or two is very well possible. High surf and Rip Currents.

National Hurricane Center discussion on 90L as of 8PM EST.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida 
continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds 
across the Florida Keys, portions of extreme south Florida, and the 
northwestern Bahamas. Gradual development of this system is 
expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm 
by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern 
Bahamas. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is 
expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

1. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday.  Tropical-storm-force 
wind gusts are also possible across portions of the Florida Keys, 
southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two.  
In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along 
the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are 
in effect. See products from your local weather office and High 
Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, 
if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this 
system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Edited by JLM

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JLM

Tropical Storm Arthur has formed! Key Messages regarding Arthur.

Space Coast Impacts: A band of rain or two maybe overnight. High Surf and Rip Currents.

Northeast Florida through South Carolina Impacts:  Bands of heavy rain. Gusty winds along the beaches. High Surf and Rip Currents.

North Carolina Outerbanks Impacts: Tropical Storm-Force winds possible Monday, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. (All hazards associated with a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning is possible.)

Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey Impacts: Very minimal impacts. If Arthur tracks closer to North Carolina, you can expect heavy rain and gusty winds. High Surf and Rip Currents.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast.  Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are possible there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days.  See products from your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 29.4N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 30.5N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 32.2N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 34.1N  75.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 36.2N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 37.5N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0000Z 38.0N  69.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z 38.0N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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JLM

This is the last update on Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur is currently moving Northeast, but overnight it will be going staright East. The "cone of uncertainty" shows a turn to the south starting tomorrow afternoon. Bermuda needs to follow the progress of this system. Although, by the time Arthur makes it to Bermuda, Arthur will be Extra Tropical/Post-Tropical Cyclone. Goodbye Arthur! The next name on the list is Bertha. I will watch the global models for more disturbances.

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JLM

The very first Tropical Wave in the Atlantic for the 2020 wave train. These will become much more frequent as we move closer to August.

Wave01 2020.PNG

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JLM

The GFS (Global Forecasting System, or American Model) is back at it again, this time showing a possible 2018 Alberto situation by June 7th. Now you are thinking, "Well today is the 22nd and this could happen on the 7th, so why worry about?" Exactly! No need to worry about at all as this is way to far out right now. This model has not had any run-to-run consistency at all. The 00z run for Thursday morning showed an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, then on the 06z Thursday run it showed a depression in the Yucatan Channel. By the 12z Thursday run it showed nothing! By the 18z Thursday run it showed a borderline hurricane in between Key West, FL and the western tip of Cuba. The 00z run for today showed an area of low pressure in between the Bahamas and Bermuda, but by the 06z run this morning it showed a sub-tropical storm in the nearing the gulf coast. By 12z run by this afternoon it showed a tropical depression in between Jamaica and Cuba. The latest run of the GFS (18z run) is showing a weak tropical storm landfalling in between Destin, FL and Grayton Beach, FL. So, that being said, we dont have enough to go off of that is enough to make something of it. Im just letting you know that whatever you see on social media that says we will have a storm hitting the gulf coast in first week of June, i say there is a 99% chance of it not happening and a 1% chance of something forming. Just beware that we may have something coming soon, although not likely, be prepared even if it doesnt! Here is the NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast:

Named Storms: Up to 19

Hurricanes: 6-10

Major Hurricanes: 3-6

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JLM

Here is the latest update on the potential development in the Carribean. Although this area highlighted is in the Pacific, according to most if not all of the global models, including the American model, the European model, and the Canadian model. All of these outputs are showcasing a crossover type situation, this could go by Amanda, then after it crosses it could be Bertha. The only question at this point is if it crosses over and where will it do so. The American model shows a crossing from El Salvador through Honduras and into the Carribean. The Canadian model does not show a crossing, but rather a piece of energy breaking off from this whole mess. The European model is now showing a potential crossover in southern Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche. The Euro has been inconsistent with whether or not a system would develop out of this on the Atlantic side. As of now, no need to worry about anything as there is not enough information to go off of at this time.

Of other news, flash flooding is expected across south Florida, Flash Flood Watches are in effect. There is a Moderate Risk for flash flooding. The SPC's severe weather outlook highlights the eastern side of south Florida with a marginal risk for severe storms today.

Amanda-Bertha.PNG

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JLM

Tropical Storm Bertha: Bertha popped up this morning and has already made landfall just north of Mt. Pleasant, South Carolina with winds of 50mph! Bertha has weakened to a tropical depression and will continue to spread heavy rain into South Carolina and North Carolina, eventually into Virginia.

Other Tropical Mischief: All models, including the GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and ICON models have jumped on to a potential tropical cyclone forming either in the Carribean, or in the southern Gulf of Mexico. IF anything develops, we could see impacts along the Yucutan Peninsula and Cuba, extending through the Florida Keys and the Florida westcoast on into the Central Gulf Coast, maybe even extending into the Texas and Western Louisiana coast.

Why are we seeing this and when could it happen?

  • We are seeing this because we will have a Kelvin Wave move across Central America, Kelvin Waves bring westerly winds, while in the Atlantic, the winds are blowing in from the east. As the Atlantic trades collide with this Kelvin Wave, a huge broad rotation develops known as a Central American Gyre, Central American Gyres (CAG) can cause tropical cyclones to form in either the Eastern Pacific, Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf), or the Western Carribean, and depending on favorablilty, all three areas. This is expected to begin taking place within the next 3-5 days.
  • Another reason we are seeing this is because we will have a favorable Madden Julian Oscolation Index across this area going into June. A Madden Julian Oscilation (MJO) is a wave of favorablilty usually associated with Kelvin Waves. As the MJO moves into phases 1, 2, or 3, this gives the opportunity for the Atlantic basin to begin producing storms left and right.
  • Again, IF we have development, a storm could form sometime between June 2nd and June 8th

Current Model Data:

  • GFS: This model is by far the most aggressive. This model showcases 2 storms, the first one north of Panama, this one forms and moves north then northwest before dissapating. The second storms forms in the Yucutain Channel, moves southeast, then northeast and striking Cuba as a tropical storm. After hitting Cuba, it moves up the Florida westcoast before turning and moving parallel to the Central Gulf Coast before making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in southeast Louisiana.
  • ECMWF: This model has been the most relaxed so far. This model is just now showing signs of organization in the southern Gulf in the Bay of Campeche moving North Northeast. 
  • CMC: This model is the in between, it has shown development on some runs, but like with the most recent run, it shows development being delayed and sitting on top of the Yucutan Peninsula.
  • ICON: This model doesnt go out very far (180 hours), it is now showing spin over Central America, this model is following right behind the ECMWF with development in the Bay of Campeche.

Should development take place, the next names on the list are Cristobal and Dolly.

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JLM

Within the next 5 Days: With Invest 92L not going to develop in the southwest Atlantic, we have another area highlighted by the NHC because thats what time of year it is! The Bay of Campeche has been highlighted with a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days. This likely has something to do with Tropical Depression Two-E in the Eastern Pacific. Regardless of Gulf development, heavy rainfall can be expected for portions of the Yucatan and Eastern Mexico. IF something develops, the general area of possible impacts range from Western Louisiana all the way to Ventral Mexico and all areas in between. If the system remains over water for long enough, it could very well be named Cristobal. 

Beyond 5 Days: The tropics should remain relatively quiet until possibly the June 15th timeframe when we could have another CAG develop in the Carribean, take this with less than a grain of salt as this will likely not happen. Other than that, the favorable MJO will be moving out around June 8th and wont come back until around July 3rd, i expect this to be when the Atlantic hurricane season really takes off. Until then, be getting prepared and take advantage of the May 29th-June 4th Sales Tax Holiday on all hurricane preparedness supplies!

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JLM

Happy first day of Hurricane Season! We have some things to discuss the AM.

First off, Invest 93L has been designated over the Yucatan Peninsula. This is expected to slowly move northwest into the Bay of Campeche today, then barely moving during the middle of this week, maybe even drifting onshore. Some models go as far as a cross back to the Pacific before turning north. When or if this turns north, at the moment looks like Texas or Louisiana impacts. Should things change, we could be looking anywhere between Northwest Mexico all the way to Panama City Beach, FL. Thats a very large area of coast, and we will have models trending back and forth across this wide area. This is part of tracking tropical cyclones. 

Lets talk possible impacts, although if any will be by Sunday June 6th. Some models have said we may have a storm landfalling by Friday, so way earlier than expected right now. Once we get a storm to track we will be able to iron out more details but right now this is all we have. As of right now here are possible impacts by location as follows:

Northwest Mexico: Monitor the progress of this system, issues for small craft with maybe tropical storm force winds offshore. Gusty winds inland.

Texas Gulf Coast: Tropical Storm Impacts, if any impacts at all, will come along by this weekend. This is subject to tons of change so keep watch of this system.

Louisiana Gulf Coast: Tropical Storm Impacts, if any impacts at all, will come along this weekend. This also is subject to change so keep watch of this system.

Mississippi Gulf Coast: Tropical Storm Force wind gusts possible this weekend. This is subject to change so keep watch of this system.

Alabama Gulf Coast: Tropical Storm Force wind gusts possible this weekend. This is subject to change so keep watch of this system.

Florida Panhandle (Gulf County to Stateline): Tropical Storm Force wind gusts possible along the coastal areas. This is subject to change so keep watch of this system (I know I am).

Some models are strengthening this to a Category 1 hurricane! I take this with a grain of salt as of now. Once we get a center to track we will have many more details on this but as of now you need to do your part and get prepared! We could (20% chance) be facing a hurricane by this weekend, but right now nothing to worry about. I can tell you one thing and that is you want to get prepared now before the rush of people come to buy supplies, especially with this virus going on. Stay safe!

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JLM

BREAKING NEWS: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

Aircraft Recon flew in this morning finding winds of tropical storm force. This has the potential to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico so keep a close eye on this storm. 

Impacts are not known to the Gulf Coast or where these impacts will occur. Models trends are back and forth all the time, thats just the nature of these things.

Cristobal is a deadly storm, and has caused deaths from flooding in Mexico and throughout Central America. This name has broken the record for the earliest C storm to form. The now second earliest storm was Tropical Storm Colin 2016. The name Cristobal will likely be retired this year along with many more to come.

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JLM

BREAKING NEWS: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF CAMPECHE, MEXICO WITH WINDS OF 60MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 994MB

Impacts to the Gulf Coast are likely, we dont know where this will landfall and what time it will make landfall. The general timeframe given is early Sunday through mid-day Monday. Impacts will be likely anywhere from East Texas to the Florida Panhandle and everywhere in between. Make sure you have your hurricane plan in place as this has the slim chance of becoming a Category 1 hurricane.

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JLM
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARATHON FL    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KEY WEST FL    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NAPLES FL      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

VENICE FL      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   X(18)   X(18)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  18(23)   1(24)   X(24)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  17(28)   1(29)   X(29)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   5( 6)  22(28)  18(46)   6(52)   X(52)   X(52)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   1(11)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  23(29)   1(30)   X(30)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   4( 5)  17(22)  22(44)  10(54)   X(54)   X(54)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  22(25)   1(26)   1(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  24(28)   X(28)   1(29)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
ALEXANDRIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  16(18)   1(19)   X(19)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
LAFAYETTE LA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  17(20)   1(21)   1(22)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)

SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)

FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
FORT POLK LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CAMERON LA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   1(17)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MERIDA MX      34 22   3(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

COZUMEL MX     34  9   2(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

BELIZE CITY    34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HAVANA         34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLE OF PINES  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)

KEESLER AB     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)  10(25)   1(26)   X(26)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

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JLM

Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall in SE Louisiana on the afternoon of June 7th, 2020. 

After Cristobal, i am now looking for the next storm to pop up in the models. Right now, it does not appear we will have anymore activity through atleast the end of June. That being said, we will likely see an increase in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific. Why does the Pacific matter? The Pacific matters because when we have a lot of activity there it tends to cut off the Atlantic activity. Though this does come with a downside, once the Pacific activity winds down, Atlantic activity ramps up. This has to do partially with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), this has been explained on previous posts in this thread. I am also watching the Main Development Region, i am getting concerned as we begin a favorable MJO towards the end of June. It will take time for things to get going, but when it does, i expect a lot of activity in the Main Development Region. We are currently in a null phase of the MJO, and we are having some weak-strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. That being said, we could have the peak of the season start in July as shear will begin to lower. The only factor that will limit development is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the SAL is dust picked up from the Saharan desert and pushed across the Atlantic, often times reaching Texas and Louisiana. I will continue to monitor all of the models available to me, and when something has stayed in the models for atleast 2 days time, I will post about it and let you know. Have a great rest of your June!!

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JLM

Its been nearly a week since the last update. I have something to tell yall that concerns me.

Saharan Air Layer Outbreak: Yes! We are having a dust outbreak over the Atlantic basin right now! This is good for us as dust will choke out tropical cyclones. This outbreak of dust will reach the US within the next week, that being said here are some impacts it may have. For some who have sensitive breathing, it may be best to stay inside during this outbreak as it could cause asthma and breathing problems. For some, it may increase your allergies. The sky will be hazy, you will be able to see this dust passing through. Last but not least, sunsets and sunrises! The sunsets and sunrises will be impacted aswell, they will become a redish color rather than orange and yellow! Areas that will see this outbreak will be everywhere throughout the Southeast US into the South Central Plains.

Pacific Hurricane Train: The Pacific Hurricane Train will likely fire up before the end of June. This is all part of the MJO moving through different areas. Multiple storms are looking possible in the Pacific within the next two weeks. Pacific activity tends to calm the Atlantic. When the Pacific is done, the Atlantic takes its turn. This will happen between next week and Early July. 

MJO: The MJO will be coming back into the Atlantic by the end of June. This means we might see an uptick in activity going into Early-mid July. There is currently nothing in the operational runs, but the model ensembles are showing maybe something that develops in the Central Carribean. Areas either just south of Hispaniola or north of Hispaniola. Some ensembles have been showing a system that develops here, then moves Northwest towards Cuba, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these ensembles take a storm into Texas, some take one into the Central Gulf Coast. These storms are on the strong side, i will be keeping an eye on the ensembles to see where a big portion of them either develop a storm and where it tracks. As of now, a few GFS ensembles are even showing anything, but be prepared as July looks to be fairly active.

 

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JLM

The end of June is on the horizon, with that comes a possible tropical threat going into early July. Take this with a grain of salt, but just know this has been in the models for some time now.

It first appeared in the models as a tropical low moving into the Gulf of Mexico, but it quickly evolved into a tropical cyclone in later runs. There are many different possible scenarios, one of them being that it might not even happen! Another scenario would be for a tropical low to move into the Gulf of Mexico and not develop, but still bring impacts. Third scenario is this develops in the NW Carribean Sea and travels north then northwest and hitting Mexico. Last scenario is that a system forms in the NW Carribean Sea and quickly moves north, intensifying quite a bit into a minimal hurricane and striking the northern gulf coast. The GFS ensembles are pitching in more scenarios but these are the operational scenarios. The ensembles have a possible system hitting anywhere from South Florida to Mexico, so just keep watching for more posts about this as time goes on and i can get a much better idea of what may happen. For now, no need to worry about anything just be prepared, afterall it is hurricane season. With it being 2020, who knows?

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JLM

Late June update:

The models have dropped every scenario listed above except for the first one! This is good news as we will likely not have a tropical threat in early July. In fact, it doesnt look like we will have much development through July 13th. The window of opportunity for storms to develop is now through early July, we will have a negative MJO set in by mid July, but a positive MJO comes back by August which will likely be the start of hell in the Atlantic. If we get any Cape Verde storms within our current window, that will be a sign for things to come. Most of July looks to be inactive, but we could still see a few storms pop up between now and the middle of July. The ECMWF is the only model that currently develops anything. The ECMWF shows a storm developing off the eastcoast and moving out to sea. No need to worry about anything for the rest of the month or through most of July! Be safe, and have a Happy Independence Day!

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JLM

*WARNING* LONG POST AHEAD

Here we are on the last day of June, and today i bring you an update. We may have some early July activity off the southeast coast. Here i will break down for you each model.

Here is the setup: We will have an old and decaying frontal boundary move through the southeast US increasing rain chances going through Independence Day weekend and beyond. An area of low pressure may try to form along this boundary. I will explain the rest with each model. Every old frontal boundary leaves some sort of energy, whether or not it ends up being a tropical cyclone or not depends.

ECMWF(European): Now-48 hours: No signs of anything.

48-72 hours: An area of spin is noted in South Alabama through this period.

72-96 hours: Weak area of cyclonic rotation moves in the Florida Panhandle.

96-120 hours: Cyclonic spin intensifies over the Florida Panhandle.

120-144 hours: Cyclonic spin moves into Southern Georgia as it continues to intensify.

144-168 hours: Deepening cyclonic spin begins to form and area of low pressure over Georgia and South Carolina.

168-192 hours: An area of low pressure possibly develops into a tropical cyclone off the coast of North Carolina.

192-216 hours: Possible tropical cyclone strengthens as it moves out to sea. Possibly becoming "Edouard".

GFS(American): Now-24 hours: A piece of energy is noted over southern Illinois.

24-48 hours: Piece of energy begins to deepen and rotate of central Alabama.

48-72 hours: Cyclonic spin weakens slightly as it moves into Southern Georgia.

72-96 hours: Weak area of low pressure develops and sits over Southern Georgia.

96-120 hours: Low pressure becomes broad with multiple areas of spin over Southern Georgia and North Florida.

120-144 hours: Low pressure becomes better organized off the coast of Georgia.

144-168 hours: Low pressure deepens and becomes what might be a tropicl cyclone off the coast of North Carolina.

168-192 hours: Tropical cyclone follows a similar path to Arthur, continuing to intensify while moving out to sea.

CMC(Canadian): Now-24 hours: A piece of energy is noted over Illinois.

24-48 hours: Energy moves south into Arkansas and Tennessee.

48-72 hours: Energy begins to rotate over northern Mississippi.

72-96 Hours: Cyclonic rotation continues drifts slowly southward.

96-120 hours: Cyclonic rotation moves into South Alabama.

120-144 hours: Area of low pressure tries to develop while it moves in over the gulf, then back inland over the Florida Panhandle.

144-168 hours: Area of low pressure moves into Southern Alabama and dissapates.

168-192 hours: Leftover energy merges with a new cold front.

There are many more models, but i will leave you with the three main operational global models. Many ensembles are catching on to this, with something moving into the gulf, then inland, than back over the Atlantic. I will update again if i can tomorrow. Until then, be safe and have a great day!

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JLM

Tropical Storm Edouard peaked with winds of 45mph and has now been absorbed into the North Atlantic. We are ahead of any hurricane season since records began, with Edouard being the 5th earliest named storm on record.

Invest 98L: An area of interest dubbed Invest 98L has moved inland over the Southeast US, this disturbance is expected to move offshore within the next few days, and has a 50% chance of developing into a Tropical or Sub-Tropical cyclone. Impacts from North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic will include increased surf, rip currents, heavy rainfall regardless of development, and gusty winds. 

The models are picking up signals out in the Main Development Region that we will have westerly winds across this area. Westerly winds will do the same in the Atlantic as they do in the Pacific, warm the ocean. The MDR is already 2-3 degrees Celsius ABOVE average, and with these westerly winds, it will continue to rise. The water temps have been regulated throughout this area by Saharan Dust and Easterly Trade Winds. This will continue to prime this area for favorablility as we head into August. 

Models are also showing signs of a tropical wave entering the Lesser Antiles that might have a shot at development going into this weekend. If a system were to develop, it would be very small in size and also very short lived. Should 98L develop, this wave would be named Gonzalo as Fay will have already been named. Any tropical wave at this time of year going forward needs to be watched for the possibility of developing. If 98L does develop, another post will be made at some point or if we have the tropical wave marked in the MDR.

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cm05

Tropical Storm Warning for New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

We really really need the rain.

Edited by cm05
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JLM

Tropical Storm Fay is headed to the Big Apple on Friday into Saturday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Cape May, New Jersey to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. This includes Long Island and Long Island Sound. Fay is expected to make landfall anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island with winds of 50mph. Get ready! Rain and gusty winds will exist for these areas, especially the beaches where winds may gust over 60mph at times. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Maryland/Delaware to Massachusetts. Flash Flooding is a big deal, remember Turn Around Don't Drown! This is just another reminder that hurricane season is here, and this year could be a bad one.

HEAT: The heat is on across the Southern US with Excessive Heat Warning for California, Nevada, and Arizona. Heat Advisories for more of the same areas extending into the southern Plains states. A new Heat Advisory was just issued for the central Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Heat Advisories are also in effect for Michigan, New York State, and Vermont. Look Before You Lock and make sure to limit outdoor activities and drink plenty of water. 

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kinzyjr
7 minutes ago, JLM said:

HEAT: The heat is on across the Southern US with Excessive Heat Warning for California, Nevada, and Arizona. Heat Advisories for more of the same areas extending into the southern Plains states. A new Heat Advisory was just issued for the central Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Heat Advisories are also in effect for Michigan, New York State, and Vermont. Look Before You Lock and make sure to limit outdoor activities and drink plenty of water. 

Oddly enough, they issued a heat advisory here as well and it topped out at 91F - 3 degrees below average - with a persistent breeze that made if feel great outside today.  Definitely way better than some of the triple digit readings during the heat wave at the end of last month and beginning of this one.

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JLM

Yes! I wish i knew that feeling :floor:

Heat index suppost to be in the order of 108-111F tomorrow. Looks like they might aswell extend the advisory through the weekend and into next week.

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