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Things that make you go hmmm


Silas_Sancona

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It's early,  but keeps showing up on the model runs.. A bit aggressively tonight. ( tidbits GFS 00z )

Plenty of time for change. But figure it's worth sharing.  Tis' the season..  

Around the 4th of Dec.

gfs_T2m_swus_55.png.2545b8c7ebba2caab256cd0969122512.png

5th.. 

gfs_T2m_swus_59.png.4c2a9af881b8dfb02bbc32741109a02d.png

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These numbers on the map are temps in F? Freezing all the way into Mexico???

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Very interesting. Certainly seems that cooler temperatures are coming earlier than normal this year. Why?

What you look for is what is looking

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2 hours ago, bubba said:

Very interesting. Certainly seems that cooler temperatures are coming earlier than normal this year. Why?

Unsettling. Our endless summer held on until about week ago when we jumped from that to winter - no fall break. I'm a believer in pendulums swinging two ways and Nature eventually balances all accounts. Excessive heat leads to extreme cold. Hope I'm wrong this time.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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8 hours ago, Chester B said:

These numbers on the map are temps in F? Freezing all the way into Mexico???

Was thinking the same thing when I started seeing such cold diving south on earlier runs.. That said, not uncommon for areas up on the Mex.  Plateau to see freezing/ near freezing temps every so often during the winter.  Little surprised to see suggested readings in the lower 40s/ 30s extending into the Trans Volcanic Belt Region of Mexico though.

Have heard stories of pretty significant frost/ freeze events occurring deep into Sinaloa along the west coast as well. Sinaloa is roughly where someone traveling south would start to encounter more extensive areas of evergreen tropical forest. 

 

Think last nights 00z looks ugly.. 06z GFS run is even worse.. and look where it's headed later on,  if what is suggested this far out occures.

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I just looked at my 25 day outlook. Projecting upper teens and low 20s as lows around then. 40s for highs. This is very early. Hopefully, no lower. :violin:

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2 hours ago, Ryagra said:

Wow! I hope not. That’s bitter cold all around 

Hoping not either..   18z GFS run has backed off a bit for now. Regardless, Will be interesting to see how it pans out since some of the forecasters I follow are seeing the same general pattern setting up over the west for the first week of December so the wx models are likely picking up on that.  

Watching news footage of a massive hailstorm that occurred about an hour ago over the southwest side of Phoenix.  Was intense enough that it looks like 2" of Snow covering a sizable area around Goodyear/ Laveen/ Avondale ( from the helicopter footage)  Same storm barely missed me. 

Had lightning strike somewhere in the alley between our back yard/ neighbors front yard earlier this afternoon.  Not sure where it struck since I couldn't  find any damage to the block wall/ street light, or obvious damage on any of the trees out there but looked like it hit the wall. Was in the livingroom looking out the back window when it hit.  Sounded like one of those big flash bang fireworks they use when they start 4th of July shows, only 7' above the ground.  

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Arg..  I hope not.. Last year was bad enough!  If we get a mega winter that wipes everything out again..(which happens here unfortunately) Im either moving or planting yucca 'palms' instead. lol

20191121_190301.jpg

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2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Hoping not either..   18z GFS run has backed off a bit for now. Regardless, Will be interesting to see how it pans out since some of the forecasters I follow are seeing the same general pattern setting up over the west for the first week of December so the wx models are likely picking up on that.  

Watching news footage of a massive hailstorm that occurred about an hour ago over the southwest side of Phoenix.  Was intense enough that it looks like 2" of Snow covering a sizable area around Goodyear/ Laveen/ Avondale ( from the helicopter footage)  Same storm barely missed me. 

Had lightning strike somewhere in the alley between our back yard/ neighbors front yard earlier this afternoon.  Not sure where it struck since I couldn't  find any damage to the block wall/ street light, or obvious damage on any of the trees out there but looked like it hit the wall. Was in the livingroom looking out the back window when it hit.  Sounded like one of those big flash bang fireworks they use when they start 4th of July shows, only 7' above the ground.  

Do you know of anyone with pictures of the hail? Would love to see a white Phoenix. 
be safe! Lighting is scary (for you and your palms).

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35 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Arg..  I hope not.. Last year was bad enough!  If we get a mega winter that wipes everything out again..(which happens here unfortunately) Im either moving or planting yucca 'palms' instead. lol

20191121_190301.jpg

The left yucca “palm” could almost pass! 

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1 minute ago, Ryagra said:

Do you know of anyone with pictures of the hail? Would love to see a white Phoenix. 
be safe! Lighting is scary (for you and your palms).

Might look over either the Facebook or Twitter page for the local Nat. Weather service office ( Phoenix ) People were sharing pics/ videos there. Also local news stations like  ABC 15 or CBS 5's weather pages on their sites. Don't doubt the helicopter footage from earlier is a top story on the news sites as well.  So weird how I could watch the storm continue forming / moving towards this side of town,  while listening to what was going on 20-25 miles or so away.  

After living in Kansas, Ohio, and Florida ( Chasing storms / working outdoors in all 3 places ) Used to close calls w/ lightning, lol. Have had it hit less than a half mile while working on something in the yard this year but only the second time in my life ive seen it hit something/ somehwere that close.  Considering theyre generally the tallest things around here, odd that none of the palm trees either in the neighborhood, or in the street island out front have ever been hit since living here.  

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2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Might look over either the Facebook or Twitter page for the local Nat. Weather service office ( Phoenix ) People were sharing pics/ videos there. Also local news stations like  ABC 15 or CBS 5's weather pages on their sites. Don't doubt the helicopter footage from earlier is a top story on the news sites as well.  So weird how I could watch the storm continue forming / moving towards this side of town,  while listening to what was going on 20-25 miles or so away.  

After living in Kansas, Ohio, and Florida ( Chasing storms / working outdoors in all 3 places ) Used to close calls w/ lightning, lol. Have had it hit less than a half mile while working on something in the yard this year but only the second time in my life ive seen it hit something/ somehwere that close.  Considering theyre generally the tallest things around here, odd that none of the palm trees either in the neighborhood, or in the street island out front have ever been hit since living here.  

I found some from ABC, thanks!

I’ve been really intrigued watching the storm as well. There’s some tall mountains just to the south of me (in Arizona, I love in Utah by 3 miles) that somewhat block the view of the storms when they come from straight south, so it’s always a nice surprise. The clouds have been so low this go around, the little mesas in town are covered, and the thunder shook my house a couple of times. It was really cool. Usually they are much higher, because the elevation drastically increases north of town.
I’ve seen lighting really close to me, but never Strike when I’ve been around.  What an experience that must be. I’m a little envious of everywhere you have lived. 
we don’t get a lot of weather, but when we do it comes with a bang. Probably similar for your current location. 

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I had a close call with lightning.   I'm originally from Toronto, Canada and we get severe thunder storms all summer (tornadoes too).  One morning I was just getting out of the shower and I think a bolt hit one of the trees outside the window.  The flash was so bright the room flashed white and you couldn't see anything.  Aside from the thundering crack that you could both hear and feel, the air in the bathroom had an electricity to it, a very strange sensation  I looked over at my wife and dog who were both momentarily stunned and yelled to get in the basement.   It was one of those small cells that pop up out of nowhere and are brief in duration.  

My grandfather was picking apples and a bolt either hit him or very nearby.  A few hours later he was rushed to the hospital with a heart attack, and died the next day due to a stroke.  He was healthy as a horse with no prior health conditions. Lightning is not something to fool around with. 

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Things that make you go hmmm....   like who purchased this.. and why didnt they wrap it???  Never seen date palms here other than small bushy ones that bit the dust in 2011.. not sure if they would even survive a typical winter?? at a large size?  It seems like it would look like crap for 8 months of the year.

20191123_180320.jpg

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1 hour ago, SailorBold said:

Things that make you go hmmm....   like who purchased this.. and why didnt they wrap it???  Never seen date palms here other than small bushy ones that bit the dust in 2011.. not sure if they would even survive a typical winter?? at a large size?  It seems like it would look like crap for 8 months of the year.

20191123_180320.jpg

Interesting for sure..  From the picture, one side of that Date Palm, just to the right of center, already looks a little rough.  Any thought on how long it's been there?

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15 hours ago, SailorBold said:

Things that make you go hmmm....   like who purchased this.. and why didnt they wrap it???  Never seen date palms here other than small bushy ones that bit the dust in 2011.. not sure if they would even survive a typical winter?? at a large size?  It seems like it would look like crap for 8 months of the year.

20191123_180320.jpg

They end up looking like that here too, especially as they grow out of their microclimates. It’s me sad to watch the decline, as they are one of the most beautiful palms to me

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On 11/20/2019 at 10:59 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

It's early,  but keeps showing up on the model runs.. A bit aggressively tonight. ( tidbits GFS 00z )

Plenty of time for change. But figure it's worth sharing.  Tis' the season..  

Around the 4th of Dec.

gfs_T2m_swus_55.png.2545b8c7ebba2caab256cd0969122512.png

5th.. 

gfs_T2m_swus_59.png.4c2a9af881b8dfb02bbc32741109a02d.png

So far right on schedule. Not really excited to deal with that.  :floor: That’s gonna be a long stretch of below freezing :violin:

 

B61A1FB3-103C-4DB5-9038-A09F874BBE0B.thumb.png.ed446a5ce7c64e9e0132cb0ab07a5f38.png

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1 hour ago, Ryagra said:

So far right on schedule. Not really excited to deal with that.  :floor: That’s gonna be a long stretch of below freezing :violin:

 

B61A1FB3-103C-4DB5-9038-A09F874BBE0B.thumb.png.ed446a5ce7c64e9e0132cb0ab07a5f38.png

Yep, looks like a soggy Thanksgiving /  cold start to the official start of the Holiday season afterwards here also.  Storm forecasted to drop Snow up your way / across the mountains of S. Cal,  north / east of Phoenix brings another potential 1.0-2.0" of rain for the valley. Anticipating at least 3 days where highs bottom out below 60F / nights bottom out in the middle/ upper 30s - low 40s.   

Another storm or two might be on the horizon for the west beyond that also. ( 12z GFS looks WET for most of California )  Cold air, at least for the moment, looks like it retreats north / northeast toward the upper Midwest after the 3rd ( Florida / Southeast still might get grazed around the 5th as a trough moves by ) Storms forecast to approach the west look to tap more moisture/ warmer air  from the west / southwest vs. Pulling air down from Alaska / Arctic Canada. 

Already starting to see wildflower seed popping up while looking over stuff out front this morning. 

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Good lord I hope Phoenix doesn’t have a repeat of last winter. Coldest/wet winter I’ve had since moving here in 2009. BY FAR. Ugh.

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3 hours ago, AZPalms said:

Good lord I hope Phoenix doesn’t have a repeat of last winter. Coldest/wet winter I’ve had since moving here in 2009. BY FAR. Ugh.

Wet is ok, at least spread out between now and mid Feb. ( want the yard to look good as i'm getting ready to head back to CA. ) Cold?  Like last year?  Not so welcome, lol..  

Wayy to early to say how it all plays out but.. have a feeling this might end up a coolish/ cold now, warmer later  kind of winter..  

While I trust their thinking about as much as driving through downtown Phoenix -blindfolded,  Accuweather has several days later in Januaury, and again going into Feb. At/ above  75-80F in their extended forecast ( wish- cast ) Doubt it will pan out but perhaps hinting that the pattern at that time means we'll end this winter / head into spring warmer than last year.. 

As long as highs above 90 stay away until ...June 1st, lol  than I'm good. 

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On 11/23/2019 at 6:53 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Interesting for sure..  From the picture, one side of that Date Palm, just to the right of center, already looks a little rough.  Any thought on how long it's been there?

I first noticed it in spring.. its in the middle of a block so unable to go check it out closer.

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4 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Yeah.. here comes the storm..   They are forecasting 3-6" of snow tonight!  

We got this!
1-3” for us. 

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3 minutes ago, Ryagra said:

We got this!
1-3” for us. 

Not too bad overall..is that for today or?? 

We will see how good their forecast is..  Its supposed to rain this afternoon and then change to snow overnight..  should make for an interesting Thanksgiving holiday.  Ive seen it snow here for thanksgiving.. so not too far out of normal.. but a little early.

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3 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Not too bad overall..is that for today or?? 

We will see how good their forecast is..  Its supposed to rain this afternoon and then change to snow overnight..  should make for an interesting Thanksgiving holiday.  Ive seen it snow here for thanksgiving.. so not too far out of normal.. but a little early.

They’re saying wind today, changing to rain. Rain And cold tomorrow and snow Friday, currently. 

it is early for sure 

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They did change the forecast from a few days ago..  I wanted to trim up the filiferas high and tight before we got into real winter. It's getting cold fo sho!

Screenshot_20191127-073531_Google.jpg

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Well advertised storm is almost on our doorstep, while another storm full of tropical moisture barely misses us as it passes by to the southeast today... Still looking at around 1-2" of rain across the valley, upwards of 2-3' of Snow up north / in the mountains south and east.. ADOT has been telling people " if you have to travel up into the mountains, rim country.. do so today.. and anticipate being unable to leave until Saturday.."   News had an article about being properly equipped if daring enough to hike up at the Grand Canyon. Seeing the pictures of hikers trying to navigate ice covered trails next to 50-100'+ ( ++ )  cliff edges.. yeah, forget that, lol..  

Latest forecast for the weekend raised overnight lows for Sat./ Sun. Had been forecast to bottom out in the mid 30s or so both mornings, now might only drop to the low 40s/ upper 30s ( Sunday morning ) .. Back to the mid/ upper 60s- around 70 to start next week. Maybe another, less potent storm later. 

Keeping an eye on where both the AO ( Arctic Ocillation ) and NAO ( North Atlantic Ocillation) are headed over the next 2-4 weeks.  Both are currently forecast to trend strongly positive around mid month.

While many other factors can override the effects, +AO and +NAO generally favor milder conditions across N. America as polar air tends to stay locked up in the Arctic. Jet stream exhibits far less wavy-ness ( Amplification ) when both indices are positive as well, generally.  Such a scenario had been casually discussed earlier on in November by some of the weather folks I check in on on Twitter.  Seeing the PNA ( Pacific / North American Pattern ) may also trend positive also..  Positive signal there enhances chances for warmer temps. in the west.  We'll see what happens. 

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@Silas_Sancona I love all the storm fronts, just not so much the cold. The fronts are a bit less boring change in weather for us. 
 

they updated my lows as well, and possibly took off the snow. Which is good news. 

06A4DCAF-5592-4809-86EA-6464584E4D9D.thumb.png.eb81411cfaabb8a45bb98cba2f7bc8d9.png
 

At one point the low was forecast as 15. I’ll take 27. That’s nothing.

My favorite saying for friend in Salt Lake City has always been: “my favorite thing about winter is watching it on tv from St George”. That will hold true if the snow ends up being rain! :greenthumb:

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3 hours ago, SailorBold said:

They did change the forecast from a few days ago..  I wanted to trim up the filiferas high and tight before we got into real winter. It's getting cold fo sho!

Screenshot_20191127-073531_Google.jpg

How old are your filifera? They should handle those temps fine if they’re not babies. Keep the ice out of the crown if you can. Ours come back from the teens almost  every year. 

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5CDD242D-A8C9-4688-B7B8-183B94BC90B0.thumb.jpeg.1378a81805a07dea5989dcf7dcdb5d6e.jpeg

 

well she’s knocking on the door, let’s see what she brings. Protect your delicate babies everyone!

luckily, my storm prep is fairly simple, keep the ice off the concrete: 

 

8052E562-000C-4D34-9942-1D7F69E205DA.thumb.jpeg.b7ee0147472207ef8a09324afa225599.jpeg515CE807-8AE5-4846-A323-39955C26E365.thumb.jpeg.5353248c413a6669e14523e74f4c34ea.jpeg02C4EF93-C3F3-4F85-B217-2E1C6192030F.thumb.jpeg.be32bd58d6da8bc2e465a2e86c04abd9.jpeg

 

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On 11/27/2019 at 10:18 AM, Ryagra said:

How old are your filifera? They should handle those temps fine if they’re not babies. Keep the ice out of the crown if you can. Ours come back from the teens almost  every year. 

About 6 years old..I planted them in 2013 as strap leafs.  Ill try to take some pics today.  The storm was a record breaker... it wasnt really cold- I think the lowest it got was 30f or so.. and it dumped about 4-6 inches of snow. That is the most snow since 1934.. when 1.5" fell.   The real cold will be when the skies clear up tomorrow.. It is supposed to rain most of the day today.. so we will see.. it was a slushy Thanksgiving. 

 

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On 11/27/2019 at 9:34 AM, Silas_Sancona said:

Well advertised storm is almost on our doorstep, while another storm full of tropical moisture barely misses us as it passes by to the southeast today... Still looking at around 1-2" of rain across the valley, upwards of 2-3' of Snow up north / in the mountains south and east.. ADOT has been telling people " if you have to travel up into the mountains, rim country.. do so today.. and anticipate being unable to leave until Saturday.."   News had an article about being properly equipped if daring enough to hike up at the Grand Canyon. Seeing the pictures of hikers trying to navigate ice covered trails next to 50-100'+ ( ++ )  cliff edges.. yeah, forget that, lol..  

Latest forecast for the weekend raised overnight lows for Sat./ Sun. Had been forecast to bottom out in the mid 30s or so both mornings, now might only drop to the low 40s/ upper 30s ( Sunday morning ) .. Back to the mid/ upper 60s- around 70 to start next week. Maybe another, less potent storm later. 

Keeping an eye on where both the AO ( Arctic Ocillation ) and NAO ( North Atlantic Ocillation) are headed over the next 2-4 weeks.  Both are currently forecast to trend strongly positive around mid month.

While many other factors can override the effects, +AO and +NAO generally favor milder conditions across N. America as polar air tends to stay locked up in the Arctic. Jet stream exhibits far less wavy-ness ( Amplification ) when both indices are positive as well, generally.  Such a scenario had been casually discussed earlier on in November by some of the weather folks I check in on on Twitter.  Seeing the PNA ( Pacific / North American Pattern ) may also trend positive also..  Positive signal there enhances chances for warmer temps. in the west.  We'll see what happens. 

The news spun it as 2 storms converging into NM.. one as an arctic storm and then a tropical one following it up. The original model that was posted didnt hold true temp wise.. but it was obviously alot of moisture funneled into it..  which added to the funky snowfall amount. The troubles with avg. yearly snow totals in my area.. just cant predict it.  I am  hoping we dont have any storms from Christmas to about January 15th..like last year then Im good.  

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From just now.. the snow really weighed down the fronds. The trees are getting large and too big to protect. 

20191129_080226.jpg

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1 hour ago, SailorBold said:

From just now.. the snow really weighed down the fronds. The trees are getting large and too big to protect. 

20191129_080226.jpg

They’re beautiful! They are that fun walk-around size.  They really stand out with all that snow. I’m glad it didn’t get as cold as advertised.

random off topic question, where did you get your Trichocereus? I can only find the trailing varieties haha. 

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I haven’t been near as cold as advertised with this storm either. I can see snow, but it hasn’t hit this little valley yet. Just very, very wet. It actually stayed above freezing the last two nights. 

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While taking a lot longer to pass through,  about 12 deg. colder right now than this time yesterday ( 57F atm )  as lingering clouds clear out.  Storm decided to stall out over western AZ most of the day yesterday before blowing through late last night / around dawn.  Extremely windy and  apparently  had a brief tornado skip across northern Phoenix as the front came through.  Some thunder, 40-50mph wind gusts, and another good soaking. ( about .87" here ).  While overall  rain/ snow totals were lower than forecast here,  some unexpected spots in the S. Cal. deserts saw snow. 

Cold tonight ( 38-39f forecast ), maybe about as cold tomorrow night, then back to the 60s/ low 70s to start next week.  Maybe a little more rain but that storm isnt looking all that strong or cold. 

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13 hours ago, Ryagra said:

I haven’t been near as cold as advertised with this storm either. I can see snow, but it hasn’t hit this little valley yet. Just very, very wet. It actually stayed above freezing the last two nights. 

Finished the afternoon off with a strong thunderstorm and horizontal rain..  that was an interesting melt down.  We got about 1.4" of precip..  which would be a typical monsoon month.  

The tricho was picked up at a local nursery in the cactus section.. there was no label on it.. I thought it looked like one.. but still not completely sure.. just due to the variability. 

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We got horizontal rain too. That was interesting. No snow happened on the valley floor though. Dry now. 

Mountain snow makes a nice contrast.

8B9039F6-C51E-49C5-B3F0-CAF34268303F.jpeg.37371bc16d4b2b295b72ad2db6d475d0.jpeg

 

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Something about a Blue Norther headed all the way down to the RGV around December 15 according to Tropical Tidbits. We shall see how accurate these long rangers are...

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What you look for is what is looking

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