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Palmaceae

Cold may be coming to Florida

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RedRabbit
1 hour ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Hopefully it's the NWS office Christmas Party tonight and somebody had a bit too much bubbly wine.

gfs_T2m_us_63.png

Thanks for sharing! Model accuracy is pretty low two weeks out so I’m not going to worry yet.

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Palmaceae
1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Saw this and almost posted.. Precip. forecast at this time over Florida looks "interesting" to say the least too.. More talk of some stretching/ potential for a split of the PV around /after the 20th also.. A case of " Wait and watch carefully"..

Every model this winter this far out has been wrong so hopefully this will also be wrong. Here is the forecast for the same time period for precip. But it does look like a cold period from Jan 23rd to the 25th in the south.

 

 

Annotation 2020-01-09 201108-precip.png

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Silas_Sancona
16 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for sharing! Model accuracy is pretty low two weeks out so I’m not going to worry yet.

Oh, no doubt it will change.. None of the models have been all that consistent this winter.. even 6 or 7 days out.. While anticipating a few sprinkles and a couple cool nights over the weekend, our local forecast is calling for no rain and a decent temp. moderation next week, heading past the 20th.. As late as last Friday,  we were looking at a parade of systems, totaling upwards of 2" of rain.. and this cool trough-y pattern over the west to hang tough thru about the 25th before moderating..

Now it looks like that is changing.. West trough/ Eastern ridge pattern may be showing signs of a big flip..  Everyone back east that has been gritting their teeth due to the lack of cold and snow thus far may be about to get their wish..  ..And i'll be happy to put a bow on it before sending it there, deflected toward the north east of course lol:P..

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Silas_Sancona
15 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Every model this winter this far out has been wrong so hopefully this will also be wrong. Here is the forecast for the same time period for precip. But it does look like a cold period from Jan 23rd to the 25th in the south.

 

 

Annotation 2020-01-09 201108-precip.png

" Daytona Beach, and Bradenton Florida,   ...on Ice!! " Ticket availability pending, lol. :bemused:

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Chatta
4 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

You say it stopped recording online this week, so are you on wunderground?

Yeah I'm on weatherunderground for it

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RedRabbit
20 minutes ago, Chatta said:

Yeah I'm on weatherunderground for it

Nice, dm me the link! :greenthumb:

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JJPalmer

Latest GFS run isn't looking too bad, and it's definitely running cooler than the other models. 

image.thumb.png.d687e44669776c624736c1fbd5a9e37d.png

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Hombre de Palmas

Latest GFS run isn't looking too bad, and it's definitely running cooler than the other models. 

Thank you. I was not aware of "pivotal weather". I am going to put it in my favorites and explore it when I get time. Always nice to have a new tool in the kit.

Here is a link to a page from a nice site that graphically compares ensembles within the GFS & Euro. The site has other features but this is the page I reference the most so far. So much information...so little time.

https://weather.us/forecast/4169171-port-saint-lucie/ensemble/usa

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JJPalmer

I've used pivotal weather to help forecast for storm chasing and winter weather when I lived back up north. Very useful platform.

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Hombre de Palmas
2 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

I've used pivotal weather to help forecast for storm chasing and winter weather when I lived back up north. Very useful platform.

I wish I would've had all this stuff years ago when I lived up in snow country and traveled a lot. All I had was a weather radio and local weather forecasts.

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Silas_Sancona
13 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

I wish I would've had all this stuff years ago when I lived up in snow country and traveled a lot. All I had was a weather radio and local weather forecasts.

^ X2.. Any of the current mobile WX platforms would have come in handy sometime ago when i lived in / storm chased while living in KS.  I Like you, at that time, relied mainly on forecast maps from the NOAA, and the weather folks on tv.. mainly info provided by veteran forecaster Bryan Busby ( KMBC, Kansas City ) over local forecasters in Topeka.. and years of learning how to read the sky..  Wasn't until i lived in Florida ( the first time ) that i started analyzing Wx data platforms in depth like Pivotal, Underground, or even old Weather bug..

As far as Pivotal, while i'll look at all the models provided there, pay closest attention GFS/GFS hi-res and the CFS ( goes out 768hrs) Not sure why T. Tidbits doesn't incorporate the same CFS data as Pivotal.. maybe they do in a different fashion?.. anyhow.. 

If you don't do so already,  Also check in with some of the forecasters on Twitter:  Judah Cohen, Michael Ventrice, ( Pay closest attn. to their thoughts mainly this time of year ) Eric Blake, Daniel Swain.. etc  ( ..all year, esp. for summer forecasts / etc )  to hear additional thoughts on current or suggested forecasts also..

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JJPalmer
2 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

As far as Pivotal, while i'll look at all the models provided there, pay closest attention GFS/GFS hi-res and the CFS ( goes out 768hrs) Not sure why T. Tidbits doesn't incorporate the same CFS data as Pivotal.. maybe they do in a different fashion?.. anyhow.. 


HRRR and NAM provide relatively robust and accurate short-run forecasts - I tend to find HRRR to be the most accurate model (depending on what you're looking at) for 12-24hrs.  

Edited by JJPalmer
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Hombre de Palmas

Thanks for all the new information to incorporate Silas, I see a date with a Rabbit hole over the weekend!

JJ, I strongly agree the HRRR is a great short term model, and I do like the NAM as well, but HRRR has been better.

 

Happy Weekend All.

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Silas_Sancona
54 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

HRRR and NAM provide relatively robust and accurate short-run forecasts - I tend to find HRRR to be the most accurate model (depending on what you're looking at) for 12-24hrs.  

Have to admit that i haven't payed as close attention to the NAM or HRRR as others..  Here, esp during Monsoon season, precip. events are so wildly variable that even the shorter term models have a tough time accurately picking up on where.. or who will see rain. Regardless, whether or not i'm still here in AZ this summer ( hopefully not, lol ) going to put the shorter term models under the microscope and see how they pan out..  Temp. forecasts are pretty stable that time of year regardless.. Hot and hotter..

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Palmaceae
On 1/9/2020 at 7:57 PM, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for sharing! Model accuracy is pretty low two weeks out so I’m not going to worry yet.

Just wait a couple days and it changes drastically. Models do not show any real cold for the SE for the remainder of the month, but of course it can change drastically again in the other direction! ^_^  I know it is highly unlikely but wouldn't be nice to have a 11a winter at least here in St. Pete? 

 

Annotation 2020-01-11 131550.png

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RedRabbit
55 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Just wait a couple days and it changes drastically. Models do not show any real cold for the SE for the remainder of the month, but of course it can change drastically again in the other direction! ^_^  I know it is highly unlikely but wouldn't be nice to have a 11a winter at least here in St. Pete? 

 

Annotation 2020-01-11 131550.png

It seems likely you’ll have an 11a winter. It doesn’t look cold for the rest of January so you will have made it through the two coldest months without any 30s. Oddly enough I think I’m still at 11a too here in relatively cold Westchase.

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kinzyjr
4 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Just wait a couple days and it changes drastically. Models do not show any real cold for the SE for the remainder of the month, but of course it can change drastically again in the other direction! ^_^  I know it is highly unlikely but wouldn't be nice to have a 11a winter at least here in St. Pete?

3 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

It seems likely you’ll have an 11a winter. It doesn’t look cold for the rest of January so you will have made it through the two coldest months without any 30s. Oddly enough I think I’m still at 11a too here in relatively cold Westchase.

 

I'd say it is possible since it happened last year as well.  Lakeland's officialannual low for 2019 was 36F and it was definitely milder in St. Petersburg.  So far in 2020, the official low is somewhere in the neighborhood of 43F.  If it stays that way, we'll have had an 11a winter as well.  Time will tell.  January isn't over and we can get some surprises come February and March.

202001111820_Lakeland_Jan_partial.png

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Silas_Sancona
17 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

  Time will tell.  January isn't over and we can get some surprises come February and March.

 

Agree.. Do remember a couple quick cool downs in Feb. in the past there though none seemed significant, at least where i'd lived. Further north, where my Ex lived.. pretty sure it was early/ mid?? Feb. when there was a pretty nasty frost/ freeze where she lived ( near Spring Hill ). Remember seeing ice covered plants/ yards and heavy frost on everything in her neighborhood one morning i'd left her place.

That said, ( same idea applies here also ),  once past say the 2nd week in February, it gets a lot harder to see any sustained/ damaging cold.. although possible of course.   Sun angle in both places is high enough that even if lows bottom out in the 36-40F range one morning, chill lasts maybe an hour before you're already in the upper 50s-lower 60s an hour or so later.

While you guys might completely avoid any serious frost/freezes this year, keep an ear out.. Heard some talk yesterday that Florida might see some enhanced Severe weather potential over the next couple weeks.

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displaced_floridian

It seems like zone 10 plants are growing in and around the Orlando area with more frequency.  The weather has been warmer than average for

years now:

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Melbourne FL 311 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 ...2019 was Among the Warmest Years on Record for East Central Florida... Since 2015, which ranked as the warmest year on record for east central Florida, a pattern of prolonged above normal warmth has persisted across the area. In fact annual average temperatures for all primary climate sites for every year since, have landed in the top 10 warmest on record for each site, and in many instances in the top 5 warmest (see rankings below). This trend continued into 2019, with average temperatures each month either coming in near or above normal. The only exception to this was at Daytona Beach and Sanford in November where monthly average temperature departures fell to nearly a degree below normal. Otherwise, average temperatures for many of the months during 2019 ranked within the top 10 warmest, with extreme warmth occurring at times, especially into February and the fall season. Most notably, Vero Beach had their warmest September and October on record. It was also the warmest October on record for Daytona Beach and Orlando. While several high temperature records were tied or broken through the year, it was warm overnight minimum temperature records that were more frequently set (see list of daily records set during 2019 below). This has also been a noticeable trend observed across the area since 2015. This protracted period of above normal temperatures through the year led to 2019 ranking as the warmest on record for Melbourne (tying 2017), second warmest at Daytona Beach, Sanford and Orlando, third warmest at Vero Beach and fourth warmest (tying 1991) at Fort Pierce. While 2019 started off wetter than normal due to an increase in rainfall during the latter half of January, overall drier than normal conditions persisted across east central Florida from February through much of the spring season. A fairly active wet season, which began at the start of June, resulted in near to above normal rainfall across much of the region during the summer months. Despite close approaches of Major Hurricane Dorian and Tropical Cyclone Humberto in September, the majority of rainfall from these systems remained offshore and led to a much drier September. Precipitation then varied from near to above normal in October, overall drier than normal in November and then well above normal in December. For Vero Beach it was actually their wettest December on record! Despite rainfall being rather variable through the year, the wetter periods during the summer months and toward the end of the year led to totals for 2019 that were typically near to above normal for much of the area.

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pj_orlando_z9b
On 1/13/2020 at 12:40 AM, displaced_floridian said:

This trend continued into 2019, with average temperatures each month either coming in near or above normal.

While true, the 28F in Jan 2018 took one of my Christmas palms and almost got my coconut. Just takes 1 night. 

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pj_orlando_z9b

Signs of the cold front showing up in Orlando. Hope it doesnt get too bad next week. TWC has 58F/42F one night next week. 

IMG_20200114_232249.jpg

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JJPalmer

Coldest air of the season coming in next Tuesday/Wednesday.

1968902C-9C75-4F76-82A4-BE3BB1AABF63.jpeg

9650678C-A5FE-47A0-84F0-177703FCD58E.jpeg

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Hombre de Palmas

I am watching next week pretty closely. The warm weather of late has encouraged many of my palms, shrubs and flowers. I hope we can thread the needle and get into February and then go from there with longer days and a higher sun angle to temper any cold fronts.

 

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JJPalmer

I'm hoping that the recent stretch of warm weather has warmed the Bay enough to retain a decent amount of heat.  We shall see - still looking like we'll stay above freezing at the moment.

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kinzyjr

At current, it is looking like mid-to-upper 30s here early next week.

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Jimbean

It looks like upper 40's here for one night.  We'll see what happens.  

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Hombre de Palmas

There's a big spread between the GFS & Euro for Tuesday night with the GFS coming in around 50°F and the Euro closer to 40° in my neck of the woods. The 12z Nam is closer to the GFS, but it trended colder this last run, especially for West-Central Florida.

This may be the coldest air mass to date of the winter season, but nothing extreme as of yet.

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PalmatierMeg

Predictions trending way down early this week. Monday night low 40sF. Tues night 36F. We haven't seen below 40 for several years when it hit 37F in mid-Feb. 

Good news, if any, is that daily temps will rebound quickly on Wed, so the effects may be short lived. But I expect to see a lot of frond burn on a lot of palms. Just a reminder a zone 11 winter is no certainty.

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Palmaceae

I tend to agree with the GFS, why, because I want too :D!

 

Annotation 2020-01-19 132648.png

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Hombre de Palmas

I tend to agree with the GFS, why, because I want too :D!

I tend to agree with it when it is agreeable to me.

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JJPalmer

GFS vs EURO vs NAM for 7AM Wednesday. We’ll see which plays out most accurately. Curious to see what the HRRR says tomorrow morning. 

E481672D-14FD-4103-A45B-9FEA1F0094A8.png

C0F18575-9090-4676-A36F-95CA4E542D40.png

4482C3BB-CE16-482C-8EAD-C014F9F63C36.png

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kinzyjr

Starting to look like a good chance of low-to-mid 30s with frost during this event.

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Palmaceae
12 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Starting to look like a good chance of low-to-mid 30s with frost during this event.

I do not think there will be frost as it looks like it is going to be windy during this period.

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NOT A TA

I never really paid much attention to the weather here before joining this forum because I just grew/grow plants that are common here so I know it's unlikely winter will kill any off. I keep watching this thread with the temp pics noticing my area is almost always the warmest place in the state during winter. I know why which is part of the reason I chose this area to move to, but didn't realize how much cooler it is south of here during winter months before seeing all the screen shots.

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RedRabbit
1 hour ago, Palmaceae said:

I do not think there will be frost as it looks like it is going to be windy during this period.

Looks like our zone 11 winter is in jeopardy!  :crying:

My Sarasota property should avoid a freeze, but the current forecast calls for 34f here in Westchase so it's a real possibility in this area.

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Hombre de Palmas

The models keep trending colder, and we have 48 hours until the lowest temperatures, so I hope the models stabilize or even moderate a bit. At least breezy conditions Tuesday night should preclude frost, but that brings it's own issues.

Constant wind the past week has really shredded the large helliconias, bananas, strelitzias, etc. What a mess it's made.

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kinzyjr
9 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Looks like our zone 11 winter is in jeopardy!  :crying:

My Sarasota property should avoid a freeze, but the current forecast calls for 34f here in Westchase so it's a real possibility in this area.

Looks like we will be near freezing here as well (33F).  Not a record setter, but definitely our coldest so far.  Guess we'll find out if some of the new stuff rooted in quickly enough.

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Jimbean

It looks like low 40's for south and coastal Brevard, which means probably upper 30's for Titusville and Port St. John.  

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Palmaceae

Upper 30's for St. Pete.

 

Annotation 2020-01-20 171906.png

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RedRabbit

It looks like they’re forecasting it to be much colder on the west coast than the east coast this go around. Supposedly Tampa will about about the same temperature Wednesday morning as St. Simons Island, GA... Is this really correct?

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