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Cold may be coming to Florida

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Palmaceae

Well if you don't like one model, just wait another day and it will change! ;)

 

Annotation 2019-12-29 215513.png

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Hombre de Palmas

Looking at the Ensembles, GFS, Euro, CMC, it looks like January 5th to 8th is the time to watch. They are all in basic agreement, in varying degrees now, that we will have a cool period, but none of them are calling for anything extreme; at this time.

I am almost afraid to type those words.

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Matthew92

In the last few days, the GFS was consistently showing a significant cold period for FL around Jan 6-9 with possible low 20's in the Panhandle and even a solid freeze well into Central FL. 

Now it doesn't even have freezing temps making it to FL at all in the last few runs. Amazing for early/mid January if that pans out.

Edited by Matthew92
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kinzyjr

The current forecast shows low temperatures into the low 40's, but no lower.  We'll see how it pans out.  Unless there is a big surprise tonight, 2019's official ultimate low here in Lakeland is 36F.  Onward to 2020!

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Nj Palms

As it looks like now most of florida will escape going at or below freezing through most of this January. No major polar vortex lobes look to be dropping down anytime. Mild winter up here in Nj so far. Only a low of 16°F.

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JJPalmer

Going to be nice and chilly tonight!

C29D9E04-D45C-4514-97DA-1035E183E28B.jpeg

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PalmatierMeg

Chilly but shortlasting.

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Palmaceae

My low was 51.6 this morning, not bad at all. I just looked at Weather Underground stations in Cape Coral where I used to live and I was full 3 degrees warmer last night here in St. Pete than some areas of the Cape.

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Hombre de Palmas

45.1°F this morning. It appears we have a warm up coming for at least the next 7-10 days. The long range forecasts look warm for Florida as well, but winter has a long way to go. At least the sun is coming back...slowly.

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Missi

43 in inland Naples.

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PalmatierMeg

47.7F here on the Isabelle Canal. That's a new winter low. Predicted: 44F so, overall, I am relieved. I brought in only two lots of uber sensitive seedlings. Tonight's low predicted to be 49F, then a warmup.

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Palmaceae

43.3 this morning in my area of St. Pete.

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Estlander

40.3F low this morning in coastal FL panhandle. 
Interesting to see an only 3F degree difference with places so much more further south like Naples and St. Pete. 

Edited by Estlander
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Jimbean

46F in Melbourne by the FIT campus

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kinzyjr

43F at 6am.

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RedRabbit

I recorded 43.5f in Westchase, but multiple Wunderground stations were at 42f so I’m guessing that’s probably about right.

The low at my Sarasota property appeared to be 45-47f. 

Mike’s Weather Page  captured a good image of the cold this morning for Florida: 

2B90DE2E-1833-4A01-B735-1EE12717C430.jpeg.ea3cc97faac8616d757f7877ee8b1d51.jpeg

Edited by RedRabbit
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JJPalmer

Quite a wide range of temps across Pinellas this morning at 6:25AM. I wish there was a way to hide faulty reporting stations.

0A58CFDB-49CC-48F7-A4AA-ADEFB0861B46.png

Edited by JJPalmer
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RedRabbit
6 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Quite a wide range of temps across Pinellas this morning at 6:25AM. I wish there was a way to hide faulty reporting stations.

0A58CFDB-49CC-48F7-A4AA-ADEFB0861B46.png

Thanks for sharing! I see Clearwater Beach didn’t break below 50f. Their microclimate tends to hold up well and I think it’s underrated to be honest.

Edited by RedRabbit
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mdsonofthesouth
2 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for sharing! I see Clearwater Beach didn’t break below 50f. Their microclimate tends to hold up well and I think it’s underrated to be honest.

Having vacationed there pretty much every winter growing up I can agree! Going inland could be quite a shock of difference sometimes. 

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Walt

When I was checking temperature plots this morning at 7:20, St. Pete-Clearwater airport was reading 55 degrees and Albert Whitted 54 degrees. Yet MacDill AFB read on 43 degrees, yet it's surrounded by water. I know this is no fluke because I have temperature plots from past years showing this same temperature spread.

St. Pete temp. 1-6-20.png

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JJPalmer
1 minute ago, Walt said:

When I was checking temperature plots this morning at 7:20, St. Pete-Clearwater airport was reading 55 degrees and Albert Whitted 54 degrees. Yet MacDill AFB read on 43 degrees, yet it's surrounded by water. I know this is no fluke because I have temperature plots from past years showing this same temperature spread.

St. Pete temp. 1-6-20.png

If I remember correctly, wind direction this morning was from the ENE meaning PIE and Albert W. saw moderated temperatures from the warm Bay.  I am assuming the discrepancy between the three reporting stations in Tampa in your pic is due to the Urban Heat Island effect, as the station on MacDill is not nearly surrounded by significant development as compared to the other two locations.  Still quite interesting that TPA was warmer than MacDill. 

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Walt
1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

If I remember correctly, wind direction this morning was from the ENE meaning PIE and Albert W. saw moderated temperatures from the warm Bay.  I am assuming the discrepancy between the three reporting stations in Tampa in your pic is due to the Urban Heat Island effect, as the station on MacDill is not nearly surrounded by significant development as compared to the other two locations.  Still quite interesting that TPA was warmer than MacDill. 

I took note back in Dec. of 2010 (first graphic below) that the peninsula that MacDill sits on runs colder  (even at the water's edge, according to the below graphic) than Pinellas.  Of course, I don't know how accurate the graphic is. I took it from WINK (Ft. Myers) website. The second graphic is from Dec. 29, 2011 showing how my warmer Albert Whitted is -- warmest on Florida's west coast and even warmer than most of S.E. Florida. The third graphic shows the heat value of water on North Carolina's Outer Banks. Note how much warmer the Outer Banks are than inland points of the same latitude.

Thermal effect of water.jpg

Temperature plots.jpg

Outer Banks of North Carolina low temperatures.jpg

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Palmaceae
1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

If I remember correctly, wind direction this morning was from the ENE meaning PIE and Albert W. saw moderated temperatures from the warm Bay.  I am assuming the discrepancy between the three reporting stations in Tampa in your pic is due to the Urban Heat Island effect, as the station on MacDill is not nearly surrounded by significant development as compared to the other two locations.  Still quite interesting that TPA was warmer than MacDill. 

I had a low of 43.3 and I am exactly 3.25 miles NW of Albert Whitted Airport and just 1.9 miles from Tampa Bay.  I am in one of the highest parts of St. Pete at 52 feet. I still say Albert W. should not be the official St. Pete temperature spot as it does not represent the whole of St. Pete.

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Palmaceae

Here is a snapshot of current temps in SE St. Pete. I am at 53 and Albert W. is 10 degrees warmer at 63.

StPeteTemp162020.png

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JJPalmer
12 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Here is a snapshot of current temps in SE St. Pete. I am at 53 and Albert W. is 10 degrees warmer at 63.

StPeteTemp162020.png

Yeah - it seems like one could consider Albert W. to be the “ideal microclimate” of inter-bay Pinellas County.

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RedRabbit
6 hours ago, Walt said:

When I was checking temperature plots this morning at 7:20, St. Pete-Clearwater airport was reading 55 degrees and Albert Whitted 54 degrees. Yet MacDill AFB read on 43 degrees, yet it's surrounded by water. I know this is no fluke because I have temperature plots from past years showing this same temperature spread.

St. Pete temp. 1-6-20.png

Neat graphic Walt, where did you get it?

Regarding the Interbay Peninsula vs the Pinellas Peninsula, I’ve never understood why Pinellas is so much warmer. The real question here is why is the Interbay Peninsula relatively cold? My best guess is it’s a combination of being closer to the Florida mainland whereas Pinellas is almost an island and secondly I suspect water depth may be a factor. The Hillsborough side of Tampa Bay can be very shallow and may not be able to moderate the temperature as much as the deeper water in the Pinellas side.

4 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Here is a snapshot of current temps in SE St. Pete. I am at 53 and Albert W. is 10 degrees warmer at 63.

StPeteTemp162020.png

I kept an eye on Wunderground last night and AW and downtown looked like outliers. I don’t think they’re wrong, but AW is basically a pier and downtown is very urban so it makes sense those two would stand out. There was a sensor in the Venetian Isles and it was a few degrees colder than AW. The Venetian Isles are about the warmest part of St. Pete you can own property in so it seems clear AW isn’t representative of St. Pete. That’s not to say St. Pete is cold, it just doesn't really have the 38f avg low that AW has. 

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RedRabbit

I’m becoming progressively more curious about the USF area’s climate because it’s Wunderground station keeps putting up abnormally warm numbers. The morning low there was 45.5f which was warmer than a lot of Pinellas County. Even as I write this post it is 51f whereas I’m 45f by comparison. Usually I’d write this kind of thing off as a bad station, but there’s a second station by University Mall with almost identical numbers.

Granted, this area doesn’t look tropical so I’m not sure what to make of it. I’m beginning to wonder if that area has become urban enough to have its own separate heat island from Tampa... I wouldn’t recommend anyone move there for the microclimate, but it’s meteorologically interesting to observe.

Edited by RedRabbit
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kinzyjr
33 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I’m becoming progressively more curious about the USF area’s climate because it’s Wunderground station keeps putting up abnormally warm numbers. The morning low there was 45.5f which was warmer than a lot of Pinellas County. Even as I write this post it is 51f whereas I’m 45f by comparison. Usually I’d write this kind of thing off as a bad station, but there’s a second station by University Mall with almost identical numbers.

Granted, this area doesn’t look tropical so I’m not sure what to make of it. I’m beginning to wonder if that area has become urban enough to have its own separate heat island from Tampa... I wouldn’t recommend anyone move there for the microclimate, but it’s meteorologically interesting to observe.

I had a similar question about Southeastern University's weather readings during the Jan. 2010 cold spell.  I lived in the middle of the urban heat island at the time, 3/4 of the way up one of the larger hills in town, and recorded a high of 37F for one of the days.  A few of the folks I know in a lower area outside of the city limits recorded high temperatures around 33F.  The Southeastern U weather station recorded a high of 42F.  I tried to figure out what was causing it, so I rode by there on the way to a party and observed what looked like a weather station at the top of a telephone pole.  If that was the weather station, that would explain the warm reading.  If I remember right, the standard for recording temperatures is 6 feet off the ground.  It might be that the weather stations are mounted higher than they should be, giving false warm readings during radiational events.

I'd have to agree not to move to Temple Terrace for the microclimate just yet.  I replaced all of the computers at a car dealership over that way late last year and it was 4F cooler there than back here inland when I left home.  Obviously anecdotal, but shouldn't happen.

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JJPalmer

Morning temperatures across Pinellas at 6AM. Definitely feels chillier than yesterday. Oddly enough, Pinellas is one of the coldest areas peninsular Florida this morning. 

 

 

B4375463-79E3-4834-98B6-F1171988EF59.jpeg

5C7A6269-504F-4076-BE4C-39640D870CF4.jpeg

Edited by JJPalmer
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RedRabbit
11 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

I had a similar question about Southeastern University's weather readings during the Jan. 2010 cold spell.  I lived in the middle of the urban heat island at the time, 3/4 of the way up one of the larger hills in town, and recorded a high of 37F for one of the days.  A few of the folks I know in a lower area outside of the city limits recorded high temperatures around 33F.  The Southeastern U weather station recorded a high of 42F.  I tried to figure out what was causing it, so I rode by there on the way to a party and observed what looked like a weather station at the top of a telephone pole.  If that was the weather station, that would explain the warm reading.  If I remember right, the standard for recording temperatures is 6 feet off the ground.  It might be that the weather stations are mounted higher than they should be, giving false warm readings during radiational events.

I'd have to agree not to move to Temple Terrace for the microclimate just yet.  I replaced all of the computers at a car dealership over that way late last year and it was 4F cooler there than back here inland when I left home.  Obviously anecdotal, but shouldn't happen.

I think you’re right that elevation can explain the warm reading at Southeastern U. It could be the same thing at USF, but I’m not sure why the second station at University Mall is about the same temp. Either way, you don’t really see many zone 10 palms East of about Dale Mabry so I’m not convinced that area is really warmer.

6 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

Morning temperatures across Pinellas at 6AM. Definitely feels chillier than yesterday. Oddly enough, Pinellas is one of the coldest areas peninsular Florida this morning. 

 

 

B4375463-79E3-4834-98B6-F1171988EF59.jpeg

5C7A6269-504F-4076-BE4C-39640D870CF4.jpeg

I was slightly colder this morning too... Interesting to see Picnic Island in Tampa at 57!

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Palmaceae
1 minute ago, RedRabbit said:

I think you’re right that elevation can explain the warm reading at Southeastern U. It could be the same thing at USF, but I’m not sure why the second station at University Mall is about the same temp. Either way, you don’t really see many zone 10 palms East of about Dale Mabry so I’m not convinced that area is really warmer.

I was slightly colder this morning too... Interesting to see Picnic Island in Tampa at 57!

I was a degree warmer this morning than the previous morning, dropped to 44.2 last night.

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Walt
On 1/7/2020 at 12:36 AM, RedRabbit said:

Neat graphic Walt, where did you get it?

Regarding the Interbay Peninsula vs the Pinellas Peninsula, I’ve never understood why Pinellas is so much warmer. The real question here is why is the Interbay Peninsula relatively cold? My best guess is it’s a combination of being closer to the Florida mainland whereas Pinellas is almost an island and secondly I suspect water depth may be a factor. The Hillsborough side of Tampa Bay can be very shallow and may not be able to moderate the temperature as much as the deeper water in the Pinellas side.

I kept an eye on Wunderground last night and AW and downtown looked like outliers. I don’t think they’re wrong, but AW is basically a pier and downtown is very urban so it makes sense those two would stand out. There was a sensor in the Venetian Isles and it was a few degrees colder than AW. The Venetian Isles are about the warmest part of St. Pete you can own property in so it seems clear AW isn’t representative of St. Pete. That’s not to say St. Pete is cold, it just doesn't really have the 38f avg low that AW has. 

I got the graphic from WINK (Ft. Myers) website.  https://www.winknews.com/weather/

 

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Palmaceae

Snow in south Texas maybe on January 24th?

 

Annotation 2020-01-08 210133.png

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Walt

Two mornings ago (Jan. 6th) I consulted the below linked website at 7:20 a.m. and the temperature there was 47 degrees. I walked outside with my three dogs and noticed some patches of frost on my house roof (but no frost on ground or my lawn tractor that I left out in the front yard, it only had dew on it). I figure the temperature at the time was probably in the high 30s since I saw some frost on the roof. I know up in town where this website is (Lake Placid Elementary School, that has a STEM weather station tied into Weather Underground) generally runs about 8 degrees warmer than down at my place on radiational cooling nights, which January 6th was. 

Out here in extreme inland Florida we actually get our record cold nights during radiational cooling events, not advective. As such, areas on high ground or close to the bigger lakes run notably warmer. 

I've been procrastinating and haven't set up my digital thermometer base station and remote sensors so that I could compare my yard temperatures with that of Lake Placie Elementary School's STEM weather station temperatures. But now we have about 10 days coming up that will be well above average, with seven of those days in the low to mid 80s F for daytime highs.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/pws:KFLLAKEP12

 

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Meangreen94z
5 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Snow in south Texas maybe on January 24th?

 

Annotation 2020-01-08 210133.png

Hopefully not, what are they predicting temperature wise? Hopefully 2 weeks from now that’s way off.

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Chatta

My weatherstation stopped recording temps online this week (just fixed it) but I was shockingly warm, The coldest night forecasted I only hit 45F, the next night I dropped down to 43F (even though it was supposed to be a warmer night @ 45F) , then 45F and 48F last night. I musta had a good direction of wind the night of the 46F because it was forecasted to hit 40F. I have two working thermos (in addition to the weatherstation) in the yard atm, both recorded 45/46. My lake had a fair enough amount of steam from the 46/45F night musta had some effect.
 

20200107_074958.jpg

20200108_090404.jpg

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RedRabbit
10 hours ago, Chatta said:

My weatherstation stopped recording temps online this week (just fixed it) but I was shockingly warm, The coldest night forecasted I only hit 45F, the next night I dropped down to 43F (even though it was supposed to be a warmer night @ 45F) , then 45F and 48F last night. I musta had a good direction of wind the night of the 46F because it was forecasted to hit 40F. I have two working thermos (in addition to the weatherstation) in the yard atm, both recorded 45/46. My lake had a fair enough amount of steam from the 46/45F night musta had some effect.
 

20200107_074958.jpg

20200108_090404.jpg

You say it stopped recording online this week, so are you on wunderground?

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Hombre de Palmas

Hopefully it's the NWS office Christmas Party tonight and somebody had a bit too much bubbly wine.

gfs_T2m_us_63.png

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Silas_Sancona
6 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Hopefully it's the NWS office Christmas Party tonight and somebody had a bit too much bubbly wine.

gfs_T2m_us_63.png

Saw this and almost posted.. Precip. forecast at this time over Florida looks "interesting" to say the least too.. More talk of some stretching/ potential for a split of the PV around /after the 20th also.. A case of " Wait and watch carefully"..

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Hombre de Palmas

Saw this and almost posted.. Precip. forecast at this time over Florida looks "interesting" to say the least too.. More talk of some stretching/ potential for a split of the PV around /after the 20th also.. A case of " Wait and watch carefully"..  

 

I noticed the precip map, looked like sleet in Jupiter or maybe even Palm Beach. The previous run was about 30 degrees warmer, and the ensembles tell a different story, but anything is possible.

Zone 8 palms always seem appealing in December-February!

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