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Palmaceae

Cold may be coming to Florida

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Palmaceae

Mid November looks a bit chilly if the models are correct! Looks a bit suspicious getting that cold this early.

 

Annotation 2019-11-02 213157.png

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RedRabbit

Thanks for sharing! Central Florida is in the window for freezes, but I’m doubtful we will get one before December. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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Silas_Sancona

Definitely something to watch, but take with a grain of salt also.. GFS accuracy lately has been less than ideal. Lots of day to day flip flopping. ( it would be pouring here had earlier " thoughts" been more accurate.)  

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kinzyjr

Thanks for sharing @Palmaceae!  Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

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bubba

So we have hope...How quickly it can be dashed. My reaction is that model is unlikely.

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palmsOrl
19 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for sharing! Central Florida is in the window for freezes, but I’m doubtful we will get one before December. 

Yeah, low 30s in mid November in Orlando would be almost unprecedented historically, though not impossible and with the massive heat island now present, I don't have to go out on a limb to say that the metro area ain't gonna see temperatures below the mid 30s before November 20.

November 2008 was a chilly month for the Orlando area, with several mornings below 40F and several more in the 40-45F range, so much so that I saw patchy fall color in the northern suburbs by late in the month.  Some years we don't get patchy fall color at any time during a given fall or winter here, especially lately.

At any rate, that forecast reminds me to go buy that little aquarium for my Cyrtostachys.

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PalmatierMeg

A real shock to the system that forecast would be: lows drop from the mid-70s on Nov 2 to upper 30s on Nov 15! Ouch!

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Palmaceae

Looking at the models today, it must have been a fluke as it does not show that type of cold on that day or that week.

 

Annotation 2019-11-03 181220.png

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Xenon

Looks like Miami is not dropping below 70F anytime soon
 

 

 

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bubba

Xenon,

Unfortunately, you confirmed my gut feeling. It is never going to end....

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bubba

So do I still have chance...

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kinzyjr
3 hours ago, bubba said:

So do I still have chance...

The 10-day shows some January-like weather coming (70s/50s) for us.  I'd say yes.

201911041305_LakelandWeather.png

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Palmaceae

The model must be picking up on something as the cold is back, but not as cold :D So my forecast is it will either be warm or cold in mid November! Either way looks like South Florida may go below 70!

Annotation 2019-11-04 144924.png

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mdsonofthesouth

My November 12 to 14 seems to be trending lower with each day. Few days ago we were mid to low 30s then high 20s now we are forecast in the Low 20s with one day having a high of 39f... that's cold for January let alone mid November where highs should be 55 to 65f range. I really hope the really cold months turn out better as NOAA showed not too long ago. Because I cannot take another bellow average winter...I need a break!

Edited by mdsonofthesouth

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Estlander
6 minutes ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

My November 12 to 14 seems to be trending lower with each day. Few days ago we were mid to low 30s then high 20s now we are forecast in the Low 20s with one day having a high of 39f... that's cold for January let alone mid November where highs should be 55 to 65f range. 

I hear you! Some pretty crazy temps for November coming even in FL. Crestview in the inland FL panhandle is currently forecast to go down to 27F Tuesday night. 

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mdsonofthesouth
1 minute ago, Estlander said:

I hear you! Some pretty crazy temps for November coming even in FL. Crestview in the inland FL panhandle is currently forecast to go down to 27F Tuesday night. 

Even though it's the "Florida icebox" if it's that cold there we have no hope in the uppersouth/midatlantic. Will be prepping Friday morning...

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Estlander

The so-called “Florida icebox” is now showing a low of 25F for Tuesday night. The beaches here are predicted to drop to 33-32F range.

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RedRabbit

I’m seeing 49f forecast for Wednesday morning. That sounds like pretty good weather; crisp cool air and not cold enough to cause any damage. :)

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

I’m seeing 49f forecast for Wednesday morning. That sounds like pretty good weather; crisp cool air and not cold enough to cause any damage. :)

At one point we were forecast to be in the 40s, now 50s... but either way, I concur - I'm glad when the chill isn't chilly enough to bother anything.

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palmsOrl

Yeah, one night in the low 50s is not at all uncommon here in the second week of November.  I recall low to mid 40s a number of times in mid November.

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Estlander

The good news is that Wednesday morning lows have been trending upwards. “Ice-box” is now showing a low of 31F and the beaches a low of 39F. That’s quite a comeback. What a roller coaster, lol. 

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PalmatierMeg

No fall here whatsoever - straight from summer to winter in one swoop. Reminds me of seasonal changes in my native Washington DC. Thurs hit 90sF. Got our first "cold front" today: 1/4" of rain and whispers of 80s. Talk of 30s, 40s, 50s within the week.

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bubba

Meg.

Checked out Tropical Tidbits and I see nothing but hot through Nov. 29, 2019. Talk of 30's must be Montana!

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PalmatierMeg
2 hours ago, bubba said:

Meg.

Checked out Tropical Tidbits and I see nothing but hot through Nov. 29, 2019. Talk of 30's must be Montana!

Just a subtle reference to the many rogue forecasts out there that raise blood pressures. Today is the first gloriously decent dry day (80s/60s) I can remember since last March.

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Tropicdoc

Hit 82 today will be 29 by tomorrow night!!!

earliest freeze since I’ve lived here

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RedRabbit

Feeling chilly tonight! It’s currently a pleasant 59f with a NNW wind here in Westchase. Still 71 at my place in Sarasota County, apparently the cold air hasn’t made it there yet.

Edited by RedRabbit
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kinzyjr

55F at the airport, 58.6F here.  There was a short period of rain last night when the cooler air arrived.  Lows are predicted to be in the low-50s on the five day forecast.  We'll see what we get.

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necturus

Those 30s on Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula are hard to believe. 

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bubba

Saw that "Blue Norther" hit Texas as evidenced by Ed. Low of 70 F here this morning. Cold in north Florida but nothing like that yet up there.

10 day Weather Underground does not show anything out of the ordinary here. We can still hope...

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Estlander

While last night’s freeze didn’t quite reach north Florida east of Tallahassee, which remained in the 40’s, the panhandle took a pretty good hit. 
Recorded a low of -0.4C/31.3F in my yard last night here on the coast.
Inland I-10 areas got it the worst as always. Crestview area even hit 25-26F. 
Took these screenshots around 5am this morning. 

FB688A65-65F5-4BA6-9763-A751C8DEF4C5.png

B3BE6806-125D-4E84-917F-6F2B0E543CE5.png

E179ED01-AC72-4AA1-ACB3-068DD180FD89.png

Edited by Estlander
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mdsonofthesouth

Today and tomorrow are official "Hate Florida peninsula" days.  Yall got spared while even the Gulf coast got hammered... I saw places on the Gulf coast around the same temps that I had. 

 

EDIT: Florida panhandle folks are exempt from the hate lol

Edited by mdsonofthesouth
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Estlander
4 minutes ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

EDIT: Florida panhandle folks are exempt from the hate lol

It was just a one nighter for us :) The low for the night ahead is 45F for us on the coast. 
Even Crestview has a low of 36F forecast for the upcoming night. 
 

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mdsonofthesouth
2 minutes ago, Estlander said:

It was just a one nighter for us :) The low for the night ahead is 45F for us on the coast. 
Even Crestview has a low of 36F forecast for the upcoming night. 
 

Then yall only get a half pass :P My low is predicted at 25F so Im expecting 25-30F at my house...

Edited by mdsonofthesouth
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Jeff985
11 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

NASA: Extremely Low Sunspot Counts Indicate Global Cooling Onset

Ed in Houston

 

From reading that it’s good news/bad news. The good news we’re not going to burn to death. The bad news is we’re going to freeze to death.  Both sound horrible, but if I have to choose I’ll take the heat. 

 

 

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kinzyjr

Looks like we might have some lows in the 40s coming.

201911150000_LakelandWeather.png

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Matthew92
On 11/13/2019 at 12:17 PM, Estlander said:

While last night’s freeze didn’t quite reach north Florida east of Tallahassee, which remained in the 40’s, the panhandle took a pretty good hit. 
Recorded a low of -0.4C/31.3F in my yard last night here on the coast.
Inland I-10 areas got it the worst as always. Crestview area even hit 25-26F. 
Took these screenshots around 5am this morning. 

Hey Estlander. Amazing you got to freezing in Mid-November while all last winter you didn't even get to freezing! My parents house across the bridge on the mainland got to 28 and they said their annuals and tropicals such as elephant ears and hibiscus got thoroughly zapped. Will be very interesting to see what this winter will be like compared to last year's mild one. 

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Estlander
3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Hey Estlander. Amazing you got to freezing in Mid-November while all last winter you didn't even get to freezing! My parents house across the bridge on the mainland got to 28 and they said their annuals and tropicals such as elephant ears and hibiscus got thoroughly zapped. Will be very interesting to see what this winter will be like compared to last year's mild one. 

Yes, it’s pretty crazy we went lower already in November this year than all of last winter. Hopefully that’s where it stops and we’ll have another 10A winter. Probably not though :(
My elephant ears and one hibiscus bush that I have are fine and green, although there is some slight tissue damage and wilt on some of the leaves. 
I was actually surprised to see some of my banana leaves taking damage at only 31F. Wasn’t expecting that to happen until 28F or so. That’s probably because of windchill though as it was very windy that night, and the ones damaged were in very exposed spots. 
‘Feels like’ temp was reported to be 23F. 
Another surprise is that my papaya plant is totally fine. Pic below taken after the freeze. 

F17F4018-B9A9-4378-922B-0EEE749C92DA.jpeg

Edited by Estlander
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kinzyjr

@Estlander You have a really nice looking garden!  The bordered bed in the background especially caught my eye.

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