Predictions For This Coming Winter Along The Gulf Coast

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

What have all of you heard, or read about the predictions for temps and precipitation over the Gulf Coast States this coming winter of 2019/2020?

John

[Jeff985]

The NWS is predicting above normal for pretty much the entire U.S. I hope they’re right. 

[Silas_Sancona]

8 minutes ago, Jeff985 said:

The NWS is predicting above normal for pretty much the entire U.S. I hope they’re right. 

Yep, both the NOAA, updated 30/60/90+ day outlooks from the CPC,  and a majority of the models used by the NMME ( latest update goes out to May ) suggest mainly warm for most of the US.

For the Southwest and CA: this means warm and likely dry.  No positive ENSO, nor La Nina forecast over the next 4-6 months either.  Just gonna have to wait to see what actually happens. ( keep an eye on the Arctic ) That said, just cause the entire winter season leans warmer, doesn't mean cold episodes will be lacking for some, at some point this season. 

[RedRabbit]

15 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Yep, both the NOAA, updated 30/60/90+ day outlooks from the CPC,  and a majority of the models used by the NMME ( latest update goes out to May ) suggest mainly warm for most of the US.

For the Southwest and CA: this means warm and likely dry.  No positive ENSO, nor La Nina forecast over the next 4-6 months either.  Just gonna have to wait to see what actually happens. ( keep an eye on the Arctic ) That said, just cause the entire winter season leans warmer, doesn't mean cold episodes will be lacking for some, at some point this season. 

What’s their track record like for forecast accuracy this far out?

[Silas_Sancona]

2 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

What’s their track record like for forecast accuracy this far out?

For each reference, tough to say..  Both NOAA and the 3 month outlooks posted by the CPC had a good handle on our  " non-soon " this summer. Daily 6-10 or 10-14 day updates were off, quite a bit in some cases ( suggesting above average chances for more rain here, when infact nothing, or very little was seen across most of the state ) NMME model data over the same time period was mixed, but you could see a trend as time went on ( X %' age of models used in their particular calculations leaning more in one direction than another ). 

 I almost posted some of their data here awhile back, but with so many maps, figured  it might be more confusing to interpret.  I myself look over both the month to month data, as well as 3 month data there also ( US Temp / Precip. maps.  Analyse worldwide SST. maps for trends also ) Overall NMME data is updated on / around the 8th of each month. 

One things for sure,  and not sure why,  but day to day accuracy with the GFS has been poor lately, Take whatever is suggested with a grain of salt ( or two ).  I also try to stay up to date with thoughts being shared by different forecasters I follow on Twitter.  Judah Cohen, a forecaster in the North East, also puts out a weekly blog over on a site called AER. He's likely one of the best people to follow thru the winter in regards to what things like the Polar Vortex might be doing over a given period of time. 

As always though, the best of thoughts don't guarantee an outcome.  We'd all be rich if that were possible, lol

[Silas_Sancona]

** Veering off topic for a sec, I wanted to pass along something I encourage any ..and everyone to check out when you have some time, esp. if you enjoy storm chasing  / time lapse videos. While awaiting the next release from him,  Well known ( and respected ) storm chaser / videographer  Mike Olbinski is working on getting this year's installment of  Monsoon season released. While dismal overall, there were some epic highlights, if you were in the right location, at the right time..  He also films across the Plains, in Texas and New Mexico during " storm season"  Have thought about posting one of his shorter vids here, but not sure how much space one would take up. 

He also posts videos regarding proper technique for anyone wanting to capture such footage themselves.  To put it simply, his videos are spectacular.  Not sure I'd use some of the music he has, but respect the inclusion.  Haven't  yet had the opportunity to meet him in person,  but can't get enough of his work. 

Would be great if someone in Florida,  the southeast, where ever else.. would start posting similar videos on such a level. ( maybe out there, just haven't come across them myself )

Regardless, some nice eye candy for everyone to enjoy. 

[necturus]

The 2016-2017 winter was predicted to be a warm one for the Houston area, and indeed it was, except for one cold front that dropped temperatures into the low 20s in Houston proper for one night (or two if you lived in the western suburbs). I don't place a lot of stock in these predictions, because we don't care about average temperatures, we care about extremes.