Tornadoes, flooding, and ..Flurries?? Oh my, Autumn 2019 arrives with a bang

[Silas_Sancona]

After one of the driest and hottest summers, both categories likely coming in within the top 10 this year, the first day.. and week of Autumn arrived yesterday quite dramatically across Arizona.. 

Thanks in part to a duo of dying tropical systems ( Lorena and Mario ) moving into a favorable position in/ around Baja Sur, and an anonymously strong, and early low pressure area that rode down the east side of the Sierras yesterday, and is currently anchored, but wobbling over Puerto Penasco ( what happens when one sips too much Patron silver, lol ) Arizona recorded not one but 3 Tornadoes. F-0 up near New River ( far north side of the Phoenix Metro ) an F-1 in Wilcox ( east of Tucson ) and a warned storm this morning down toward Sells ( way out in the middle of nowhere, due South of Casa Grande, near Ajo ) First time in 3 years the area NWS has issued Tornado Warnings.  

Valley saw multiple rounds of heavy rain / Flash flooding, strong storms ( meanest looking/ strongest storms last night were mainly the north / north east sides of the Valley).  Heaviest rainfall, (amounts between 4-7") fell up in the Tonto Basin, north east of Mesa / Apache Junction,( to my  north east. ) Large hail, and on top of all that, tops of the San Francisco Peaks in the shadow of Flagstaff were dusted with about an inch of Snow.  Pretty crazy, and what a sudden change considering our dud of a Monsoon season, and relentless heat, due,  in part, to the lack of rain this summer across most of the state( S.E. AZ was doing better than the rest of the state though ).

Tucson and most of Southern / S. Eastern AZ got dumped on late last night / today. 

Dry most of the day today here but storms are re firing and headed north south of Ajo. Tomorrow's forecast could include more heavy rain / flooding, and strong storms as round 2 moves in, and might continue on/ off thru the morning hours of Thursday. Supposed to clear out and warm a bit Friday / over the weekend, ( only 90-92f at best though. Not bad for the end of September ) but, some hints of another possible wet spell later on.  Hoping the focus of heavier rain tonight - Thursday Am is overhead.. Got some rain yesterday but nothing like the 1"+ amounts seen over a good chunk of the Valley, excluding the rain gauge at Sky Harbor.. Only received like .12" while areas a couple miles east or north saw 1-2" amounts.. Pretty crazy spread across such a short distance. 

San Diego / L.A. Basin?, don't be surprised if you also see some showers tomorrow / Thursday also. 

Same general pattern may usher in quite a good episode of early season Snow over the Northern Rockies, possibly into the N. Plains over the weekend  / sometime next week. Same Trough settling into the Western States might drop our overnight lows into the low 60s / upper 50s across the Valley for acouple mornings..  Regardless, no more 100f highs forecast going forward.. looks like that's ended for the year. 

After a relatively silent, dry, and sizzling Summer, this week is my kind of way to kick off the fall.. Hopefully October brings more..

Welcome, to the start of Northern Hemisphere Autumn, 2019.

[AZPalms]

No kidding, welcome is right! Although “officially” we recorded half an inch Monday, my rain gauge was over 1”, which I’ll happily accept. Palms and plants look lush with the humidity, lower temps and rainfall. Can we keep this full time? I promise not to take it for granted! 

[bubba]

Very interesting summary. Fall in South Florida has it’s nuance.  Our weather has become quite nice for the time being with relatively low humidity for what we are accustomed to and less rainfall. Of course, that can change very quickly at this time of year given the nature of hurricane season. 

That stated, we are beyond Cape Verde season (August 15-September 15) where the ballistic bombers come off the African Coast and turn into devastating killers in our area (see 1926, 1928, 1935, 1949, Donna 1960...Dorian 2019). Dorian did check Herberts Box 1 but did not hit Florida but it’s toll in the Abaco’s is beyond alarming. Cape Verde’s continue in the Carribean far beyond Florida’s time-frame. A simple review of the most prolific hurricane season ever recorded in 1780 saw the Barbados (sp?) completely defoliated in late October 1780, as just one of the 5 late 1780 Cape Verde hurricanes.

In Florida, we now move into “sidewinder season” where we deal with Herberts Box 2 and the usually lesser hurricanes that emanate out of the lower Carribean and move across Florida west to east.  Although not as powerful, they are certainly are devastating (see Wilma).  My hurricane shutters do not come down until late November.

All of that stated, those who are used to the standard heat and humidity experienced in south Florida for no less than six or seven months a year, can now feel a minor,  if not imperceptible change.  This applies only to folks who are primarily year rounders.  Folks coming down for the “season” may find the heat and humidity unbearable. 

So now in our tropical savanna climate, we move into “dry season”  where temperatures drop and  beneficence returns until mid-May.  For constant worriers, it also allows the return to that fear of the big freeze that reaps complete ruination on all things tropical.  My belief is that hurricane season is much more likely to devastate the tropical foliage in our area than any freeze.  

One more interesting sidenote that signals the change of year, may be seen in the now ubiquitous iguanas. They are not as spry and their color is not as bright.  You can tell that they are fully aware that they are outside their comfort zone in South Florida. All it takes is the temperature of 40°F for them to fall out of trees!

 

 

 

 

 

[Hillizard]

I was late getting outside to water this evening but before I could we got: lightning, thunder, hail and now torrential rain. Thanks Weather Gods!

[Silas_Sancona]

9 minutes ago, Hillizard said:

I was late getting outside to water this evening but before I could we got: lightening, thunder, hail and now torrential rain. Thanks Weather Gods!

Looks like there's a tornado warning just west of Sacramento atm as well..  

Still looking at 58-65f lows across the valley by mid week.  That said,  Monsoon season ends Monday. Despite some parts of town getting dumped on this week, this year's monsoon will come in at 5th driest in Phoenix,  with numerous other spots across the state seeing just as dismal of rainfall totals for the season, even normally wet spots up in the mountains.  Technically, this week's storms aren't even monsoon related.. more of a transitional type event. 

[Hillizard]

9 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Looks like there's a tornado warning just west of Sacramento atm as well..  

Still looking at 58-65f lows across the valley by mid week.  That said,  Monsoon season ends Monday. Despite some parts of town getting dumped on this week, this year's monsoon will come in at 5th driest in Phoenix,  with numerous other spots across the state seeing just as dismal of rainfall totals for the season, even normally wet spots up in the mountains.  Technically, this week's storms aren't even monsoon related.. more of a transitional type event. 

Yes, there was a tornado warning for Davis and West Sac. Some posted pix of a twister. I scurried indoors when the lightning struck too close for comfort. Still raining here since my first post about this. Yea! No watering needed for days now. Will have to check tomorrow for leaf damage from the hail though. Let's hope all areas in the western U.S. get something close to 'normal' rainfall totals this winter.

[Silas_Sancona]

47 minutes ago, Hillizard said:

Yes, there was a tornado warning for Davis and West Sac. Some posted pix of a twister. I scurried indoors when the lightning struck too close for comfort. Still raining here since my first post about this. Yea! No watering needed for days now. Will have to check tomorrow for leaf damage from the hail though. Let's hope all areas in the western U.S. get something close to 'normal' rainfall totals this winter.

I sure hope so also.. Last year's wet winter is the only thing that saved us, and the entire region really, from seeing any sort of mandatory water restrictions go into effect next year.. and just by a hair.. If this year is dry, no doubt the area will see restrictions ..on some level.. by 2021.  We'll see what happens.  

[Silas_Sancona]

On 9/27/2019 at 8:11 AM, bubba said:

Very interesting summary. Fall in South Florida has it’s nuance.  Our weather has become quite nice for the time being with relatively low humidity for what we are accustomed to and less rainfall. Of course, that can change very quickly at this time of year given the nature of hurricane season. 

That stated, we are beyond Cape Verde season (August 15-September 15) where the ballistic bombers come off the African Coast and turn into devastating killers in our area (see 1926, 1928, 1935, 1949, Donna 1960...Dorian 2019). Dorian did check Herberts Box 1 but did not hit Florida but it’s toll in the Abaco’s is beyond alarming. Cape Verde’s continue in the Carribean far beyond Florida’s time-frame. A simple review of the most prolific hurricane season ever recorded in 1780 saw the Barbados (sp?) completely defoliated in late October 1780, as just one of the 5 late 1780 Cape Verde hurricanes.

In Florida, we now move into “sidewinder season” where we deal with Herberts Box 2 and the usually lesser hurricanes that emanate out of the lower Carribean and move across Florida west to east.  Although not as powerful, they are certainly are devastating (see Wilma).  My hurricane shutters do not come down until late November.

All of that stated, those who are used to the standard heat and humidity experienced in south Florida for no less than six or seven months a year, can now feel a minor,  if not imperceptible change.  This applies only to folks who are primarily year rounders.  Folks coming down for the “season” may find the heat and humidity unbearable. 

So now in our tropical savanna climate, we move into “dry season”  where temperatures drop and  beneficence returns until mid-May.  For constant worriers, it also allows the return to that fear of the big freeze that reaps complete ruination on all things tropical.  My belief is that hurricane season is much more likely to devastate the tropical foliage in our area than any freeze.  

One more interesting sidenote that signals the change of year, may be seen in the now ubiquitous iguanas. They are not as spry and their color is not as bright.  You can tell that they are fully aware that they are outside their comfort zone in South Florida. All it takes is the temperature of 40°F for them to fall out of trees!

 

 

 

 

 

You may be onto something in regards to your suspicion regarding damage caused by Hurricanes vs damage caused by cold episodes. Very possible that Hurricanes ..and what weather follows them can create more damage. In this regard, I'd also toss in our Monsoon season.. Scratching your head a bit?  well, recently came across two research papers which deal with a particular species of fly which while eradicated from where it was established in the US, ( and much of Mexico / Central America atm) , resurfaced on some of the Keys there in Florida back in 2016. Was quickly dealt with, but could easily return and establish again. 

Reading through both lengthy papers, the authors make some interesting connections to weather patterns at various times which corolated to when serious outbreaks ( or plagues, if you want to call it as such ) occurred both in Florida, Texas, and in Arizona, and why efforts to eradicate failed ..and succeeded.. during various periods despite the ongoing, massive utilization of S.I.T. ( Sterile Insect Technique ) over time.  In the instances where outbreaks occurred, both before and during the SIT campaigns,  the worst episodes occurred the summer following warm / wet summers / warm winters.  Where as the technique used to get rid of this insect were successful, overall, not necessarily due to the technique itself, but due to several years of cooler than normal winters in which placed a lot of pressure on the fly's efforts to sustain / rebuild itself in the face of being taken out. At least here in the US. Evidentally, the species is slow to build it's population and there is an apparent lag- year between population recruitment and potential outbreak/ invasion. Males of the species tend to congregate vs disperse, and females only mate once ( helpful in regards to sterilization ). It is also sensitive to cold temperatures. In Florida, its sugested a severe winter in the late 50s  helped the eradication efforts succeed, more so than the technique itself, at least according to the research sited.  

Study goes on to calculate how more recent episodes of warmer / wet, warm winters would have effected possible outbreaks, minus SIT erradication, and touches on how the effects of such conditions under a changing climate might change the effectiveness of SIT.  In Florida's case, the fly is supposedly still present on some of the islands in the Caribbean ( Cuba, Dominican Republic, Jamaica in particular ) and can still disperse, especially if blown in via a hurricane, which might explain how they reappeared in the Keys back in 2016. Possible they were blown in that year, or either in 2014 or 2015 and went undetected until the population was significant enough to get noticed.  In this case, if you never studied the species, you might mistake it for 2-4 others that resemble it.. 

Here, in Arizona, the study makes the case that our summer Monsoon might explain how this insect would move north / northwest out of west Texas and Mexico, particularly during wetter years.  Interesting to think Monsoon season has a dark side.. 

Looking at the bigger picture, pretty obvious what a freeze event does, acting as a check on numerous things, where as the opposite encourages establishment / dispersal into new territory, unless you prefer the cold ofcourse.. A garden, or natural environment can recover from a freeze but Hurricanes can / do destroy almost everything..  While a mild winter afterwards might help native stuff to recover, it can also spell trouble if that same weather event / pattern brought a fly, other damaging insect / organism to a new home..  Not that we ourselves don't already do a good enough job moving stuff around as is.. A few years of ideal weather, and those things start establishing themselves and may be harder to knock down when the next cold spell occurres, if it occurres on a level that would even effect x organism. Iguana / Pythons, etc are perfect examples. 

Like you said, between hurricanes / tropical storms,  and cold, which weather related event presents more damage potential, overall.

Edited September 29, 2019 by Silas_Sancona
Wording

[Chester B]

Snow in Oregon this weekend.  The town of Government Camp and all of Mount hood received several inches.  They've only recorded snow in September 3 times in the last 40 years.  Both spring and summer were kind of a bummer (cooler, wetter) and now we've skipped Sept and October and moved into November weather which is the 1st month of winter here, things start to warm up again in February.

[oasis371]

Weather is NUTS!  We are in growing drought in many areas of the Southeast and East.  Almost no rain in September in my NJ yard and HOT, back to 90 F on Wednesday. 

Supposed to get cooler but for how long? We need RAIN now after MONTHS of flooding rains in the Spring and early Summer. Winter months will now probably bring record precipitation surpluses.

Edited October 1, 2019 by oasis371

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, oasis371 said:

Weather is NUTS!  We are in growing drought in many areas of the Southeast and East.  Almost no rain in September in my NJ yard and HOT, back to 90 F on Wednesday. 

Supposed to get cooler but for how long? We need RAIN now after MONTHS of flooding rains in the Spring and early Summer. Winter months will now probably bring record precipitation surpluses.

  Definitely been a strange summer ..year in fact, all around..  Pac. N.W. definitely got the short end of the stick - heat wise - thru the summer.. Kinda shook my head when I started seeing forecasts for this big storm / cool down sticking on the extended models awhile back, thinking to myself, " they've barely had any summer heat up there this year, now, an early start to fall??"   Montana?.. wow. 

 How often does California see extended, spring episodes of strong / severe storm events that could easily be mirrored where I lived in Kansas?  ..not counting the Tornado / Tornado hybrid and hail that hit Davis the other day.. ( some pretty nice videos / pictures of it though )  I honestly can't remember a year like this past spring there.. A couple feisty storms / year or every couple years here or there across the state, sure.. but repeated events, over the course of 2-4 months? ( again, lots of pictures / video footage )..pretty unusual, imo.  All while most of S. Cal stays mild, if not a bit cooler than the opposite end of the coast thru the spring / summer.  Parts of Hawaii, of all places, also set numerous temp. records over the summer.

Today was the last day of our Monsoon season.. which officially comes in as 5th driest for Phoenix ( .66" compared to 2.71" that is average for the summer at Sky Harbor ) several other spots, Flagstaff, Show low ( east end  Rim country / White Mtns area of the state. ) & Grand Canyon all notched their driest monsoon ever..  As if .66" as Sky Harbor isn't dry enough, Chandler's official total for the Monsoon is .35", or is what was shown earlier today.. I might have had slightly more at the house, but nothing like last year, or even 2017 which was also below average. At the same time, areas like N.E. Mesa, parts of Scottsdale, Apache Junction saw 3"+ over the summer.. Will have to check on Tucson's final tally but I'm sure they didn't come close to average this year either..  Normally wetter there overall.. State utilities are currently arguing over how hot is too hot to shut off power to people when it's hot thru the summer. One proposal would place the " won't shut off power" temp at 105f or above ( when it's forecast to be 105f or more out, if if that sounded confusing ) , vs 95f, which has been suggested by those more knowledgeable in regards to the effects of heat, esp. on the elderly / disabled.

Edited October 1, 2019 by Silas_Sancona
Edit

[Chester B]

14 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

  Definitely been a strange summer ..year in fact, all around..  Pac. N.W. definitely got the short end of the stick - heat wise - thru the summer.. Kinda shook my head when I started seeing forecasts for this big storm / cool down sticking on the extended models awhile back, thinking to myself, " they've barely had any summer heat up there this year, now, an early start to fall??"   Montana?.. wow. 

 

Ain't that the truth.  41F overnight and one more cold one before the overnight lows start to come back up.  Just found out Bend, Oregon which is on the cold side of the state had a few inches of snow as well.  Hoping this is a blip and we get a milder than normal winter like they are currently predicting.

[kinzyjr]

Apparently, fall isn't out of surprises.  Hope that no one was affected by the tornadoes in Flagler or St. Johns: https://weather.com/news/news/2019-12-14-florida-tornado-thunderstorm-weather