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palmsOrl

Tropical Cyclone Dorian

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Nj Palms

Those on the east coast of Florida. should prepare for at least cat 4 winds. It is looking likely it slows down substantially approaching the coast leading to more rapid intensification. The west coast should not have direct impact as the eye wall should stay east unless it crosses the state. As of now that does not look likely. From the beginning and now I am still thinking landfall in fl then rides up the coast and exits at Delmarva. Stay safe and prepare now!

Edited by Nj Palms
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NOT A TA
5 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Needs replacing for sure. My husband says looks like you have an underlayer of shingles from the previous reroof so we assume it doesn't leak. He suggests you glue down loose shingle with Gorilla Glue or apply roofing tar under/around damaged shingles to hold them down. Gorilla Glue dries faster. It may look terrible but if it holds.....

After the storm, go for a metal roof. Costs more but holds up to storms longer and better than tile or shingles.

But do something now.

I was wrong in my previous post, Megs hubby was correct about 2 layers of shingles.

I've been rebuilding the soffits on my house and had some plywood & fascia just tacked up to keep critters & such out of the attic near the area where the roof pic I'd posted is. I knew they needed to be secured for hurricane winds. So while I had the ladder out there I peeked up over the drip edge to look closer at the shingles. and sure enough that section of roof has 2 layers. I'd used the camera zoom from the ground to take the pic.   Anyway, I went up for a close inspection and it was even worse than I'd thought so I spent the past couple hours making it better. I had roofing nails & tar in stock so at least I didn't have to make a trip for supplies. It certainly isn't repaired or good and there's still underlying structural issues.

I went to the grocery store earlier and customers were dismantling pallets of water as fast as the stock people could bring them into the store area. They had a two per customer limit on packages of bottled water. Lots of empty shelves throughout the store.

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Nj Palms

Lates recon pass and they found a central pressure of 972mb. Only the short range models of HWRF and the Hmong had this. Definitely not a good sign when this storm is this strong this early. Cat 5 a real possibility.

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Palmaceae
19 minutes ago, Nj Palms said:

Here is a link of the weather models free for everyone to use.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Yes that is the best place to look for good hurricane info, another is https://spaghettimodels.com  Right now it looks like Dorian may make it across the state and the eye may affect the Tampa Bay area. We just moved from Cape Coral to St Pete a couple months ago so we getting ready.

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Silas_Sancona
19 minutes ago, Nj Palms said:

Here is a link of the weather models free for everyone to use.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

:greenthumb: Agree, T. Tidbits is by far the best of the free to use weather model analysis sites.  Would add that the site may slow donw a bit w/ increased traffic as Dorian gets closer. Levi had mentioned this yesterday.  Noticed this myself throughout the day while doing my usual 4x's a day daily analysis of weather models.

Would also encourage everyone in Florida to follow Michael Ventrice, Eric Blake, and Philip Klotzbach on twitter for the most up to date details as they come in. The feedback area below Weather Underground blog entries is another area worth monitoring, if you don't already. 

Stay safe, and good luck. 

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Nj Palms
54 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Yes that is the best place to look for good hurricane info, another is https://spaghettimodels.com  Right now it looks like Dorian may make it across the state and the eye may affect the Tampa Bay area. We just moved from Cape Coral to St Pete a couple months ago so we getting ready.

The west coast seems like it may be spared. It is not looking as likely to cross as a couple days ago but still possible and best to prepare. As the storm makes the westerly turn we should get a better idea of track.

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Palmaceae
26 minutes ago, Nj Palms said:

The west coast seems like it may be spared. It is not looking as likely to cross as a couple days ago but still possible and best to prepare. As the storm makes the westerly turn we should get a better idea of track.

The last GFS run has the center getting very close to the Tampa area but the euro has it a bit east going north before crossing the state. I pray it turns out to sea before it even gets close to the east coast of Florida.

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Nj Palms
25 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

The last GFS run has the center getting very close to the Tampa area but the euro has it a bit east going north before crossing the state. I pray it turns out to sea before it even gets close to the east coast of Florida.

The good thing is that it’s not landfalling on the west coast so I would expect at most for Tampa area if the storm moves over is cat 1 low end cat 2 conditions. It just looks more and more likely the east coast will get hit but will not know till it turns. All we can do is pray and give it to God.

Edited by Nj Palms
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GottmitAlex

Praying for folks in the East coast. Puerto Rico was spared, thank God. 

I hope this dissipates, devolves into a tropical storm and/or deviates its current course (for the better).

 

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subsonicdrone

i like to use wunderground's wundermap

with the weather stations turned off... and the radar turned on...past radar only

put the speed up to 30X and let it load then determine youreself whether the precipitation is headed youre way

 

for precipitation at least

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cm05

I’ve been in FL with a Cat 4 brushing by, not fun. I had the same eerie feeling with Sandy, which was a Cat 2 when it began bearing down on NY/NJ, the category (winds) ultimately wasn’t important since it was the storm surge from such a physically massive hurricane that caused 90% of the damage, but the feel of 100mph gusts shaking the foundation underneath my feet is one I’ll never forget. I wish you all the best.

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palmsOrl

The 5pm forecast track still calls for Hurricane Dorian to make landfall on the coast of East Central Florida and now shows the storm riding up the coast just inland.  Many of the most recent models have trended to the right of previous runs amd there is a chance that Hurricane Dorian could remain offshore and pass east of Florida.

My personal opinion is that it is still going to landfall on the coast of East Central Florida, but, I am waiting to prepare the yard and plants until the 11am advisory tomorrow due to the uncertainty.  Doing so will still give me two days to prepare if needed.

205152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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RedRabbit

Looking like Matthew 2.0...

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Nj Palms

This afternoon brought some better trends. Looks like a coastal scraper up to N.C. West Coast looks to be spared on most model runs. Still keep me eye out though.

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Palmaceae
3 hours ago, Nj Palms said:

This afternoon brought some better trends. Looks like a coastal scraper up to N.C. West Coast looks to be spared on most model runs. Still keep me eye out though.

Looking better for the west coast but still too many variables to leave any area out in Florida right now since the storm is expected to slow down the forward progress the next couple days. All depends on the timing and strength of the trough going east in the conus.

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kinzyjr

At this point it is more likely that it will stay offshore and ride the coast.  Still too early to relax, but better news than an almost CAT5 direct hit.

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Palmaceae
1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

At this point it is more likely that it will stay offshore and ride the coast.  Still too early to relax, but better news than an almost CAT5 direct hit.

The latest model run and the latest NHC forecast keeps the storm off the east coast of Florida which is great news. The Carolina's need to be on watch now. Praying for the people in the Bahamas. 

I still not comfortable with the track as it could still move west, with slow moving storms they have a mind of their own.

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palmsOrl

Here is the 11am forecast track, depicting the dramatic shift east in the forecast guidance since yesterday afternoon.  Thankfully for Floridians, a direct hit is looking unlikely, but anybody in the cone should not let their guard down.  I am also glad I don't have to spend the next 2 days moving yard stuff and plants to safe locations!

My thoughts...I have been tracking tropical systems since I was a kid in 1995 when Hurricane Erin made landfall on the Treasure Coast of East Central Florida.  I have seen this Dorian scenario play out many times, where a storm is initially, or for several days, predicted to hit the East Coast of Florida from the Atlantic, only to suddenly turn north and miss us altogether at the last minute (or the models shift late in the game and suddenly change expectations entirely).  I was almost conned again by Dorian, though I had a feeling several days ago when a few of the models started showing a turn north before Florida, that a turn would indeed be what ultimately happened.  My dad, also a weather enthusiast, started telling me this a few days ago.  He said Thursday, "If this thing is going to slow to a crawl near the Bahamas in weak steering currents, something is going to pick it up before it reaches Florida, or the western edge of the high pressure will erode, allowing the storm to turn north before reaching the state".  It is not impossible to get a Cabo Verde storm moving through the Western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles to hit the East Coast of Florida, but there are so many factors that have to align seamlessly for it to happen, that it is by far the exception rather than the rule.

In the past 40 years, we have had: David, Andrew, Erin, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Matthew (no FL landfall for Matthew, but direct impacts due to close proximity).   In addition, I went back to 1851 and could not find a single record of a major hurricane making landfall on the Space Coast of Florida, so it would be an exceedingly rare event, but it is a matter of when, not if, it happens for the first time since reliable records have been established.

As a storm chaser, I enjoy witnessing the raw power of nature during tropical cyclones.  It is the adrenaline junky in me.  But, I am relieved that it appears that there will not be a devastating impact in Florida.  I may drive over to Cocoa Beach on Tuesday to see what will likely be tropical storm force winds (on the current forecast track at least).  I have my Kestrel anemometer dusted off and ready.

174305_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Edited by palmsOrl
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Palmaceae

GFS and HWRF trending west again, could make landfall near Cape Canaveral. Hurricane Hunters found that the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic is stronger then anticipated. Don't let your guard down yet.

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Palmarum
5 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

... I am also glad I don't have to spend the next 2 days moving yard stuff and plants to safe locations! ...

Too late for moi...

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Palmaceae

185 substained winds with gust to 220, praying for the people in the Bahamas as it has to be a nightmare there now. 

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kinzyjr
44 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

185 substained winds with gust to 220, praying for the people in the Bahamas as it has to be a nightmare there now. 

At this point, it is the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record.  Not good news, especially if it doesn't turn like it is supposed to do later.  I can't imagine being trapped on an island for this thing, much less sticking around if it decides to show up uninvited.

201909011500_Dorian_CAT5.png

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palmsOrl

Here is the 5 pm forecast track for Hurricane Dorian.  Based on this, it would appear that the immediate coast of FL from perhaps Stuart to St. Augustine has a fairly high chance of seeing hurricane force winds and inland Central Florida would likely see sustained tropical storm force winds.

155815_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind 9-1.png

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Palmaceae

The scary part now is it is so close to Florida and it is not slowing down like forecasted yet and not turning yet, so again keep your guard up and don't take this lightly just because they say it will turn. I am sure it will turn, but when?

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Palmaceae

The latest 18z run of the HWRF still shows Dorian making landfall near the Cape Canveral/Titusville area. This will bring hurricane conditions to the Orlando area.

 

hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_20.png

hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_21.png

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NC_Palms

I am currently in Beaufort County, South Carolina and evacuations were just ordered for us. I will be heading back to North Carolina tomorrow. 

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kinzyjr

@NC_Palms Stay safe up there!

@Palmaceae There are a lot of folks here in town sweating bullets waiting for the storm to make its predicted turn.  If it looks like it will hit with enough force to kill the power here I may take a mini-vacation and just take my work laptop with me.  Irma was bad enough.

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NOT A TA

Went to fill my truck with diesel today. Lines were down the street the past several days with folks filling cars and gas cans for generators so I just kept passing by. People had been telling me stations had gone dry.  When I drove up there wasn't any cars at pumps and only one car in the whole place which I assumed was the attendants car. Figured they were out of gas but maybe still had some diesel so I drove up to the pumps. No signs saying "out of gas" or anything. Filled up no problem and apparently they had gas also as cars drove up & started filling after seeing me there.

Moved on to the grocery store with little hope of getting much. The store had bare shelves last time but I figured maybe they got a few things back in stock. I was shocked entering the store to see it was stocked like they were ready for a grand opening with full shelves everywhere, salad bar stocked, soup bar loaded, sandwich shop cranking away, and even the bakery was piled high with fresh baked goods. The place was clean, organized, well stocked, and check out was efficient & orderly.  Only thing in the whole store I noticed they were low on was certain milks. Astounding recovery! It looked like a normal day or better!

If the storm doesn't turn, I'm outta here. I have no doubt about loosing the rest of the roof with even low cat level hurricane winds and damage could be much, much, worse if a cat 2-3-4 knocks on the front door.

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NOT A TA
15 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

@NOT A TA Depending on your exact location, you may already be in an area where evacuations were ordered: Evacuations Ordered

I'm not in zone A or B which have been ordered to evacuate. Very few people in my neighborhood will leave for various reasons. It's probably surprisingly to those who've never lived in hurricane prone areas that a lot of people here haven't even started putting up hurricane shutters etc. even if they already have them. I talked to a neighbor this evening who said he isn't going to put them up. Said he doesn't "think" he'll need them. Of course he's always the first one in line looking for insurance checks, disaster assistance, etc. and makes out like a bandit. Meanwhile I haven't been able to replace my roof since Irma stopped by so who's the smarter one?

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RJ
12 hours ago, NC_Palms said:

I am currently in Beaufort County, South Carolina and evacuations were just ordered for us. I will be heading back to North Carolina tomorrow. 

Yep got the word last night. Wondering if @Laaz is going to hunker down or head for the hill. Wondering if the kids will get yanked from school like the last two storms that where pretty much non events for us (Mathew being stronger for us then Florence) 

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Palmaceae

Cat 4 now, 155 mph winds. Moving just 1 mph, cannot imagine what the people in the Bahamas are going through right now.  Looks like it is going through an eye replacement cycle which can make the storm larger in size and change the direction of travel.  Stay safe everyone.

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Laaz
2 hours ago, RJ said:

Yep got the word last night. Wondering if @Laaz is going to hunker down or head for the hill. Wondering if the kids will get yanked from school like the last two storms that where pretty much non events for us (Mathew being stronger for us then Florence) 

I'm not going anywhere. They are reversing all the lanes on I-26 today at noon, pretty much cutting off all freight & gas from getting into the area. Way over hyped if you ask me.

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NatureGirl

We packed the garage with about half of my seedlings and some bigger palms. Some more palms in shed, the rest on GH floor. Bromeliads layed down next to back fence. Got the Evacuation order here on Barrier Island. Will wait and see if it stays off shore. Have my sisters in Melbourne to go to Incase we do leave.

 

 

 

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91AE4279-4B6C-44E4-86B2-F74C0056876B.jpeg

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palmsOrl

My prediction for the Orlando area is peak sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph.  As such, I am content with my minimal level of preparations.  Of course, the far west side of town could be 20-30 mph and the easternmost reaches could see 40-50 mph.  We know how it goes.

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, palmsOrl said:

My prediction for the Orlando area is peak sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph.  As such, I am content with my minimal level of preparations.  Of course, the far west side of town could be 20-30 mph and the easternmost reaches could see 40-50 mph.  We know how it goes.

Polk County has a Tropical Storm Watch, expecting much the same conditions.  I'm sure the further east you go the more likely you will experience those conditions. 

@NatureGirl I'm glad that you have a place to go off of the barrier islands.  Hope this is just a drill, but better safe than sorry. 

 

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Palmaceae

Just had our first squall line over St Pete, brief rain and gust to 25mph. 

Praying for all on the east coast, stay safe.

 

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NOT A TA

As they've moved the cone of doom East & North I'm no longer in it at all YAY! Have gotten a couple showers today but only maybe 1/4" -1/2" of rain total so far, about what we get with a typical thunderstorm. Been just a gloomy day with occasional light- medium rain. Breezy but not really windy and it's shifted from the north to a little more NW. Looks like I've dodged a bullet for now as the storm's turning North. I keep checking the updates.

Hope everyone North of here along the Eastern coast makes out as well.

The Bahamas looks really bad on video I've seen. I'm fairly sure people have died who tried to ride it out. Rescue people had to stop trying to save other people when it got really bad there.

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