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Palm crazy

July Forcast USA 2019

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Palm crazy

July forecast is out so taking a look. Do you agree with your area?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhzZiNlnmU0&t=1s

Sorry, can't seem to get the video to post. If you go to youtube and look up Direct Weather you should be able to find it. 

Edited by Palm crazy

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PalmatierMeg

I would like to see some rain in my forecast. We are baking here.

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NOT A TA

When ya get that rain Meg send a bit over to the East coast please! Been low 90's and no rain the past week. Very few clouds so the sun is just brutally hot.

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PalmatierMeg
1 hour ago, NOT A TA said:

When ya get that rain Meg send a bit over to the East coast please! Been low 90's and no rain the past week. Very few clouds so the sun is just brutally hot.

Will do, if I can. We haven't had a drop for nearly 3 weeks. Chances for today are 50/50. Temps are in mid-90s and soaring. I can't risk going outside when it's this hot. Ironically, I've learned over the years that rainy season starts a couple weeks sooner inland and on the East Coast and ends a week or two later in the fall. June 15 is usually the start date here and the spigot switches off by Oct. 10-15. But the heat starts in Apr and doesn't break until around Nov 1. Four months (maybe) of rain, 8 months of mostly drought. The myth of year round rainy, tropical FL is just that.

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NOT A TA
I came in to cool off & get a drink of water. Feels nicer today with a few passing clouds & a steady breeze off the Atlantic because I'm less than 2 miles inland.  Figured I'd sit a minute jump on computer. Weather channel reports a heat advisory for Palm Beach County. Must be very hot a few miles inland without the ocean breeze. Currently here.
93°
Partly Cloudy
Feels Like 106°
H 94° / L 78°
UV Index Extreme
10% chance of rain

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OC2Texaspalmlvr

Houston area just had to days of rain with over 3.5 inches and now back to our normally scheduled weather 90 degrees and 100% humidity =)

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palmsOrl

Meg, I believe rain is more (but not completely) consistent in most of SE Fl than SW Fl in general.  I agree with this map regarding where the cutoff is in Fl between humid subtropical and tropical climates.  The map also shows that most of SE Fl is considered to have either tropical monsoon or even tropical rainforest climate. Most of SW Fl is considered drier tropical savannah.

Years back, I remember learning that tropical rainforest climates were determined (one measure at least) by annual precipitation of 80” or more and lack of a pronounced dry season.  A fairly small part of SE Fl has a relative lack of dry season but nowhere near 80” of annual rainfall.  Personally, I would consider that area of “tropical rainforest” to actually be tropical monsoon, but that is just my humble opinion.

C5C46509-201A-43B8-A2FF-D0E091A992EC.png

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Silas_Sancona
58 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Will do, if I can. We haven't had a drop for nearly 3 weeks. Chances for today are 50/50. Temps are in mid-90s and soaring. I can't risk going outside when it's this hot. Ironically, I've learned over the years that rainy season starts a couple weeks sooner inland and on the East Coast and ends a week or two later in the fall. June 15 is usually the start date here and the spigot switches off by Oct. 10-15. But the heat starts in Apr and doesn't break until around Nov 1. Four months (maybe) of rain, 8 months of mostly drought. The myth of year round rainy, tropical FL is just that.

As hot as it has been there, be glad you're there and not here.   That said  ..so far..  we have been lucky this year, only reaching / breaking 110F once since the start of June. May notch a few days 109-111F over the weekend / Mon-Tues. next week but for perspective, in 2017, temps were ranging between 115-120F at this time.  Today is the anniversary of Phoenix' hottest day, 122F back in 1990 as well.  If it is going to be hot here, the 102-106F we've been seeing lately  isn't bad.. Can handle that if thats as hot as it gets 95% of this summer.

As for rain, ..can't quite say we're in the same boat as far as awaiting some. While  un-official "Monsoon season" started on the 15th, the area rarely sees any rain until after July 4th. Bigger concern atm is moisture that is typically building north thru N.W. Mexico has been trapped much further south thus far than is typical.. and while longer range forecasts have been trending more optimistic, the trough that has been stuck off Oregon since.. early May.. has to get squashed, and not return before we'll see a better set up for any precip. This same pattern has.. and may likely continue to be why the rainy season there in Florida has been sputtering so far. Quite surprised to see such relatively low rainfall totals ( by FL. standards ) for the next 10 days on some forecasts across the state.. 

That said, With the birth of Alvin, the East Pac. Hurricane season has began. Development of 2-3 more systems is possible there too over the next 10 days.. Unless the favorable conditions currently situated there get stuck, they'll eventually move east into the Gulf / Caribbean.  Don't want to see any Hurricanes there, but don't think anyone wants to see what a summer with 25% of normal rain would do to Florida either..  We'll see if we can get 25% of normal rain here before the end of September..

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Chester B
On 6/25/2019 at 1:55 PM, Palm crazy said:

July forecast is out so taking a look. Do you agree with your area?

Not at all.  If I see another day in the high 60's low 70's I'm gonna puke.:sick:  And remember those are the daily highs that last for maybe 1-2 hours.  It takes a long time to warm up during the day in the PNW.   Right now its 10:00am and 58F.  Too cold to sit outside until after lunch and then you have to hide inside as soon as the sun starts to set.

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Palm crazy
4 hours ago, Chester B said:

Not at all.  If I see another day in the high 60's low 70's I'm gonna puke.:sick:  And remember those are the daily highs that last for maybe 1-2 hours.  It takes a long time to warm up during the day in the PNW.   Right now its 10:00am and 58F.  Too cold to sit outside until after lunch and then you have to hide inside as soon as the sun starts to set.

It's called 'June Gloom'. It finally caught up to us and will last another 7-10 days.  A few warm days next week. 

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Palm crazy

Looks like the June Gloom is almost over low 80's by Sunday... :D

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Chester B

Our local meteorologists are predicting mid 70's here going forward but more rain,  possibly some 80's by next weekend.  They look at all the models and interpret the data and tend to be far more accurate.  Computer models,  are showing 80's starting tomorrow.

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Silas_Sancona
On 6/27/2019 at 9:50 AM, Chester B said:

Not at all.  If I see another day in the high 60's low 70's I'm gonna puke.:sick:  And remember those are the daily highs that last for maybe 1-2 hours.  It takes a long time to warm up during the day in the PNW.   Right now its 10:00am and 58F.  Too cold to sit outside until after lunch and then you have to hide inside as soon as the sun starts to set.

Will gladly trade ya our 80+ nights for some 58-63F lows, lol.. Was 108F today, Only supposed to reach ...85-88 forecast overnight, and with clouds moving in from what's left of Alvin, and leftovers from some storms over the mountains east of town earlier, might be a 'lil sticky by morning.. No rain though, just heat, and hot nights until Tuesday.. That's July in the Desert.  Could be worse.. Then again, it might just get worse by the middle of the month if the 18z GFS is correct.. Lots of 110+ heat suggested for California too..  

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Hombre de Palmas

I have determined forecasts are useless.

We have registered .625 in (16MM) of precipitation in the last 3 weeks of the "rainy season", of which 12MM fell in a 10 minute deluge two weeks ago.

The storms fire off the coast, move inland, and die out quickly. They re-fire about 10 miles inland and circulate over the same areas. There is a black sky to the west and a black sky to the east and usually a black sky to the south, but we have sun here.  Same thing is happening this morning, the rain is riding up the coast, and missing us by 2 miles. The forecast says rain and t-storms all day today but I know better.

A couple weeks ago, after we received the 12MM of precip (which was not forecast) I planted a bunch of stuff, split my heliconias and relocated some largish specimens in anticipation of a "week of heavy rainfall" according to the Weather Service.  I know one day we will get a wet period again, but it will probably not be forecast as such. Now I have to go outside to water.

:badday:

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Ed in Houston

The Weather Direct July forecast for my place in Houston predicts dry conditions for July.  I suppose it could get dry in Houston for a short period but the last couple of years have been WET.

The weather station about a mile form my home reports 83 inches for the last 12 months.

 

July 2018- June 2019

pastyear.png.0f119ce7dbe1208ffdde090efc32b277.png

 

This was a little dry compared to the 12 monts before that when it rained 91 inches.

oneyear.png.40e6c4ee3ea81a278aa133e202984a03.png

Fortunately, over half the rain for the year fell over a 3 day period so its not like it was raining every day.

The local fauna like this rabbit doesn't seem to mind the wet conditions and have adapted just fine.

84be64b615521d4b1a8ea39ac2101938.jpg

 

Ed in Houston

 

 

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Hombre de Palmas

THAT's a lot of rain!

 

I used to live the DRY part of Texas and traveled the state for work. I liked Houston quite a lot, as it was warmer in the winter, and a bit cooler in the summer..

I wonder if the rabbit tastes like chicken.

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OC2Texaspalmlvr

@Ed in Houston we just got 3" of rain in 90 min. Thats over 8" since i planted my bizzies last sunday :bemused: 

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palmsOrl
On 6/26/2019 at 2:58 PM, palmsOrl said:

Meg, I believe rain is more (but not completely) consistent in most of SE Fl than SW Fl in general.  I agree with this map regarding where the cutoff is in Fl between humid subtropical and tropical climates.  The map also shows that most of SE Fl is considered to have either tropical monsoon or even tropical rainforest climate. Most of SW Fl is considered drier tropical savannah.

Years back, I remember learning that tropical rainforest climates were determined (one measure at least) by annual precipitation of 80” or more and lack of a pronounced dry season.  A fairly small part of SE Fl has a relative lack of dry season but nowhere near 80” of annual rainfall.  Personally, I would consider that area of “tropical rainforest” to actually be tropical monsoon, but that is just my humble opinion.

C5C46509-201A-43B8-A2FF-D0E091A992EC.png

An example, Cairns, Australia, where the average annual precipitation is near 79”, and yet it is considered a tropical monsoon climate.  Granted, there are 5 months out of the year in Cairns that average under 2” of rain.

Fort Lauderdale, by contrast, a tropical rainforest climate according to the Koppen system, averages 62” of rain per year and monthly rainfall averaging under 4” for 6 months of the year.

So, I would say both have too pronounced a dry season to qualify as a tropical rainforest climate, and Fort Lauderdale does not average enough annual precipitation either. But again, this is just my opinion.

I think if the geography was favorable, we would see large areas of tropical monsoonal forest in Southeast Fl, but not tropical rainforest.  In fact, we have small areas of tropical monsoonal forest in S. Fl now.

3E989C24-0BFB-48BF-A032-B2A2DA695277.png

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Chester B

Oregon government released a report on June 20 predicting a cool and dry July, August and September. Not the best news except for the fact that forest fires season should be slow this year. 

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kinzyjr

We could definitely use some more rain as others have mentioned.  It's been mid-to-high 90s even when it was overcast with little or no rain so far this month.

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