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cbmnz

Winter down under

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cbmnz
20 hours ago, Tyrone said:

I haven’t had frost here for weeks as well and the likelihood of frost now is probably over. Been a mild winter and everything just kept growing with zero cold damage. Even my Pinanga coronata is coming back well from a bad freeze in 2017.

Here is a chart of the annual extreme mins at the closest official station to me. Year to year variation but there appears to be a clear warming since the early 1980's. No wonder 9B stuff like Bangalow are towering all around the place now,  whereas in the 1970's even queens might have struggled. I'm assuming the -2.8C recorded this year will not be surpassed as that  would be very rare September or later. The urban areas are always about 1C warmer than the rural official site.

Screenshot from 2019-08-25 20-43-18.png

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sandgroper

It might still be winter but there's a change not too far around the corner I think.

Screenshot_20190826-130654_Chrome.jpg

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Tyrone

27C at the end of August is hot even for Perth at this time of year. I think this summer will be a stinker, or maybe a decaying cyclone or two may make it a hot steamy summer this year. Even Albany will be 24C on Wed and Thur then the rain comes back in a vengeance and the temps will feel like winter again as we go into spring.

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sandgroper

This is ridiculous for winter!

Screenshot_20190828-131247_Gallery.jpg

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cbmnz
54 minutes ago, sandgroper said:

This is ridiculous for winter!

Screenshot_20190828-131247_Gallery.jpg

Indeed. Looks like you are getting a warm feed from the Timor sea. Is there a local foehn effect as well? Does Perth have nearby ranges high enough to create one?

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sandgroper

Most of this is coming from a more typically summer pattern with a high pressure system in the Great Australian Bight, it's causing easterly winds blowing warm air across the south west of WA. It looks as though it will be fairly short lived though with a return to more winter like weather from tomorrow, we're expecting a high of around 22c and rain forecast for the next 3-4 days. Still my palms will be enjoying this weather and it'll only be another six or seven weeks and it'll be like this most days.

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Tyrone
2 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Indeed. Looks like you are getting a warm feed from the Timor sea. Is there a local foehn effect as well? Does Perth have nearby ranges high enough to create one?

That's crazy warm for August in Perth. WA is mainly flat and although Perth has the Darling Ranges to its east they are only at 300-400m asl peak, so no large mountain range causing the temps to peak up like that. I remember a July day back in about 1986 in Perth when I was a kid that was a similar temperature, but it's mega rare.

Down here we may hit 23C tomorrow and then we have a week of thunderstorms and rain, which is sorely needed. We haven't quite hit 500mm for the year yet. We are about 200mm behind the average to the end of August.

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Tyrone

It got to 25C here today. Now it’s pelting with rain and is fairly warm for a Southern Hemisphere August night.

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sandgroper
7 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It got to 25C here today. Now it’s pelting with rain and is fairly warm for a Southern Hemisphere August night.

25c, that's warmer than Perth reached. We've had a lot of rain overnight too which the garden will love.

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Tyrone

I just went out looking at the garden this morning and I’m amazed how deep green everything is at the end of winter. It’s been a mild one down here and almost everything is doing well. Except for a Dypsis pembana that had a large branch land on it in squalls yesterday. No leaves or spear left on it. Everything smashed to the ground and I think the growing point is fatally damaged. Poor thing.

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greysrigging

Well, almost the 1st of May, and although not classed as a Southern Hemisphere winter month, the first big Polar Outbreak of the season is about to impact on the south eastern States, bringing with it gales, torrential rain, hail and snow with blizzard conditions forecast for the Australian Alps and the Tasmanian highlands. There will be light snow as far north as the Central Tablelands west of Sydney, and possibly the highest peaks of the Northern Tablelands towards the QLD border might see a dusting. The nations capital, Canberra has a forecast max of 7c ( 44f ) on Friday.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/rain-storms-snow-and-dust-on-the-horizon/531405

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Tyrone
30 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Well, almost the 1st of May, and although not classed as a Southern Hemisphere winter month, the first big Polar Outbreak of the season is about to impact on the south eastern States, bringing with it gales, torrential rain, hail and snow with blizzard conditions forecast for the Australian Alps and the Tasmanian highlands. There will be light snow as far north as the Central Tablelands west of Sydney, and possibly the highest peaks of the Northern Tablelands towards the QLD border might see a dusting. The nations capital, Canberra has a forecast max of 7c ( 44f ) on Friday.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/rain-storms-snow-and-dust-on-the-horizon/531405

Yep, it's just gone passed us today. Miserable day down here.

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greysrigging

Snow on the Porongurups later this week ?
211969_dc4313dd7c1d437856c18cbd475d1989.png.8d88ae799cacd9028f890e209524f1ca.pngIMHO, looking at EC & GFS tonight, it's Fair to say snow is possible down to 700m ASL along the Great Southern region Wednesday 10am, which makes even places like the (highest peaks of the Porongurups a remote chance).
Dynamic system this one.
I think the SW has a fair chance at a destructive tornados through the coastal belt.
...And being a West Aussie cold outbreak there will be snow reports that are in-fact hail.

Edited by greysrigging

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Tyrone

We’ve had over 27mm of rain in the last 12hrs with quite a bit more to come today. The thunder is rumbling at sun up.

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sandgroper

Pouring with rain here and have been without power for 14 hours!

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Tyrone

Just after 10am this morning the temp was sitting on 7.8C which was the minimum this morning. Its been raining and hailing all morning. Only small hail though. I doubt it will reach 15C today. That's quite toasty in comparison. Still got power, for now anyway.

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Tyrone
3 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Pouring with rain here and have been without power for 14 hours!

I heard that there are 55000 homes without power. A trampoline ended up in power lines in Mandurah, knocking the grid out there. Wild stuff.

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GottmitAlex
6 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

I heard that there are 55000 homes without power. A trampoline ended up in power lines in Mandurah, knocking the grid out there. Wild stuff.

A trampoline? How strong are the winds?

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Tyrone

There was a 128kph wind gust at Cape Naturaliste which is not near Mandurah but about 100kms south. Not sure what Mandurah got, but Mandurah is in WA's tornado alley so anything's possible.

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GottmitAlex

:o Prayers go out.

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sandgroper
1 hour ago, Tyrone said:

I heard that there are 55000 homes without power. A trampoline ended up in power lines in Mandurah, knocking the grid out there. Wild stuff.

Heard about the trampoline, sounds like that caused a fair amount of damage.  Now 19 hours without power! Still strong winds and rain here and currently a freezing 15c in Jandakot, it's just a nasty day.

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Tyrone
4 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Heard about the trampoline, sounds like that caused a fair amount of damage.  Now 19 hours without power! Still strong winds and rain here and currently a freezing 15c in Jandakot, it's just a nasty day.

Not very nice for you at all. They probably can't work on reinstating the power until the winds and rain stop. 

We've had just under 48mm of rain in the last 24hrs. The highest it has got to today is 10.5C with howling winds. Extremely cold for May even for Albany. You may get this in July once a year.

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greysrigging
50 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

Not very nice for you at all. They probably can't work on reinstating the power until the winds and rain stop. 

We've had just under 48mm of rain in the last 24hrs. The highest it has got to today is 10.5C with howling winds. Extremely cold for May even for Albany. You may get this in July once a year.

See how youse go before the .9.00am reset, but that may well have broken the May record for coldest maximum.... Airport and town site.  Are there reports of snow on the Stirlings ?
Ahh no, just checked the Weatherzone site, its 11.7c at the Airport atm, so no record.... still a miserable day, but.....

 

Edited by greysrigging
addition to post.

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Tyrone

Yeah once the sun went down the temp went up. Even though it sat around the 8-10C mark all day, at night it went up into the 12-12.5 C range. The wind has dropped right out now and they’re forecasting a 19C day with a bit of rain. Really wild stuff.

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Tyrone

I don’t think the Stirlings got snow. They would have got hail and boy it would have been miserable on Bluff Knoll yesterday.

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Tyrone

Much warmer today and 19C. Its raining again though. Some heavy rain out there.

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tropicbreeze

We're going into that time of year when everything is drying out rapidly. My least favourite time.

weather-200508.jpg.dd4c144d8492f47950f5cf0f5fa1a327.jpg

Darwin's water storage has been hit by two successive failed wet seasons. A lot of water in the dams will disappear through evaporation due to wind and hot very dry air over the next five months or more. We've only just come out of the wet season and levels are already below normal end of dry season levels.

Dam-200508.jpg.dd2dbb7e8b051777081c85eb86c44f57.jpg

 

 

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Tyrone
15 minutes ago, tropicbreeze said:

We're going into that time of year when everything is drying out rapidly. My least favourite time.

weather-200508.jpg.dd4c144d8492f47950f5cf0f5fa1a327.jpg

Darwin's water storage has been hit by two successive failed wet seasons. A lot of water in the dams will disappear through evaporation due to wind and hot very dry air over the next five months or more. We've only just come out of the wet season and levels are already below normal end of dry season levels.

Dam-200508.jpg.dd2dbb7e8b051777081c85eb86c44f57.jpg

 

 

That’s a real worry.

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greysrigging
2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

That’s a real worry.

A 3rd consecutive poor or failed 'Wet' would most likely see water restrictions in suburban Darwin/Palmerston.....something that has not occurred in my 40 odd years here

 

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sandgroper
2 hours ago, greysrigging said:

A 3rd consecutive poor or failed 'Wet' would most likely see water restrictions in suburban Darwin/Palmerston.....something that has not occurred in my 40 odd years here

 

Hope you can avoid that happening, it's a real concern. We had a very dry April but the start of May has been a lot more promising rain wise.

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Tyrone
6 hours ago, greysrigging said:

A 3rd consecutive poor or failed 'Wet' would most likely see water restrictions in suburban Darwin/Palmerston.....something that has not occurred in my 40 odd years here

 

That is a concern. Another big concern is when the tap gets turned back on, it gets set to "Niagara Falls" . Droughts, then floods.

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greysrigging
28 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

That is a concern. Another big concern is when the tap gets turned back on, it gets set to "Niagara Falls" . Droughts, then floods.

Well, there are a few climate/weather indicators lining up atm that 'suggests' a wetter than average 'build up' and 'Wet' next season.... would be unusual to have 3 failed wets in a row ( not happened since European records began ).... but again... what is normal..... 6 months ago who would have believed the country would be shut down by a Virus ?.... I've learned not to be surprised any more......

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Tyrone

Has it been cold the last few mornings up in Perth Sandgroper? The last couple of mins here have been mild around 11 to 12C but I think it was Thursday morning we went down to 2.3C. I had icicles on the most exposed patches of lawn. Got the fire going now all day non stop.

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sandgroper
4 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Has it been cold the last few mornings up in Perth Sandgroper? The last couple of mins here have been mild around 11 to 12C but I think it was Thursday morning we went down to 2.3C. I had icicles on the most exposed patches of lawn. Got the fire going now all day non stop.

We had one morning in Jandakot that dropped to 5c which was pretty unpleasant but the other mornings have been around 12c which is a lot more comfortable.  We've had a few cooler days around 19c but the last few days have been around 23c -24c with a high expected tomorrow and Thursday of 27c both days before cooling down again for the weekend. 

Sounds like you may get a few visitors heading down your way now that the state government has relaxed some of the covid19 travel restrictions.

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greysrigging
sandgroper

A cold morning coming up for Perth tomorrow,  the forecast is for a low of 5c and a cool top of 19c. The week should gradually be warming up to a high of 26c for next weekend before we get some rain on Sunday and cooler maximum temps but at least the minimums are supposed to be better, around 13c.

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Tyrone
14 hours ago, sandgroper said:

A cold morning coming up for Perth tomorrow,  the forecast is for a low of 5c and a cool top of 19c. The week should gradually be warming up to a high of 26c for next weekend before we get some rain on Sunday and cooler maximum temps but at least the minimums are supposed to be better, around 13c.

I see Jandakot went down to 1.7C according to the bom. I should be a beautiful sunny day though.

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sandgroper
4 hours ago, Tyrone said:

I see Jandakot went down to 1.7C according to the bom. I should be a beautiful sunny day though.

Crikey! Didn't realise it got down that low, I was already at work before dawn. My poor coconut wouldn't have liked that!

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Tyrone
3 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Crikey! Didn't realise it got down that low, I was already at work before dawn. My poor coconut wouldn't have liked that!

Your coconut wouldn't have seen that temperature where you've got it all protected and snug. You'd be lucky if it saw 6C.

Although we've been warmer at night (slightly) our day maximums have been very cool. Yesterday it sat around 12.5C for most of the day before it just crept past 15C. Then at night once the sun went down it sat around 12.5C for ages even with a clear sky. Its been annoying of late. Clouds during the day obscuring the sun, then clear nights with no blankets. The worst combination. I'd rather the other way around.

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