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tropicbreeze

Climate in Australia in 2050

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tropicbreeze

Found an interesting website which gives the predictions for rainfall and temperatures in the year 2050 based on climate change patterns. They use the 30 year period 1960 - 1990 average as a base line. They don't give anything for the next (current) 30 year period 1990 - 2020, suppose technically it's not complete yet.

It looks like they've done all the weather stations across the country, you click the map to get the one you want. You get the annual average daily maximum temperature for the period 1960/90 and projection for 2050. Also there's the projected fall in rainfall plus days of over 30 and 40 degrees (sometimes 35 degrees).

Funnily enough, I don't have to wait for 2050, the figures they give are more like this year for temps, although instead of 15% below average rainfall (their prediction for 2050) this year is running about 32% below.

1960 - 90: 32.5
Year 2050: 36.1
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 365
Days (2050) over 35 degrees: 291
On average 15% less rain

This is the site:
https://myclimate.acf.org.au/index.html

Some other places around the country:

Darwin
1960 - 90: 32.0
Year 2050: 35.2
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 363
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 1
On average 17% less rain


Broome
1960 - 90: 32.3
Year 2050: 35.8
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 365
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 51  
On average 28% less rain


Marble Bar
1960 - 90: 34.9
Year 2050: 39.4
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 350
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 208
On average 18% less rain


Cairns
1960 - 90: 28.8
Year 2050: 31.6
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 301
Days (2050) over 35 degrees: 48
On average 16% less rain


Brisbane
1960 - 90: 25.6
Year 2050: 29.2
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 190
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 3
On average 21% less rain


Sydney
1960 - 90: 22.1
Year 2050: 25.4
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 62
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 5
On average 13% less rain


Melbourne
1960 - 90: 19.8
Year 2050: 22.6
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 52
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 6
On average 21% less rain


Adelaide
1960 - 90: 21.6
Year 2050: 24.2
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 85
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 15
On average 27% less rain


Perth
1960 - 90: 23.5
Year 2050: 26.6
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 125
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 14
On average 38% less rain


Hobart
1960 - 90: 17
Year 2050: 19.1
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 11
Days (2050) over 35 degrees: 6
On average 10% less rain

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GottmitAlex
49 minutes ago, tropicbreeze said:

Found an interesting website which gives the predictions for rainfall and temperatures in the year 2050 based on climate change patterns. They use the 30 year period 1960 - 1990 average as a base line. They don't give anything for the next (current) 30 year period 1990 - 2020, suppose technically it's not complete yet.

It looks like they've done all the weather stations across the country, you click the map to get the one you want. You get the annual average daily maximum temperature for the period 1960/90 and projection for 2050. Also there's the projected fall in rainfall plus days of over 30 and 40 degrees (sometimes 35 degrees).

Funnily enough, I don't have to wait for 2050, the figures they give are more like this year for temps, although instead of 15% below average rainfall (their prediction for 2050) this year is running about 32% below.

1960 - 90: 32.5
Year 2050: 36.1
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 365
Days (2050) over 35 degrees: 291
On average 15% less rain

This is the site:
https://myclimate.acf.org.au/index.html

Some other places around the country:

Darwin
1960 - 90: 32.0
Year 2050: 35.2
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 363
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 1
On average 17% less rain


Broome
1960 - 90: 32.3
Year 2050: 35.8
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 365
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 51  
On average 28% less rain


Marble Bar
1960 - 90: 34.9
Year 2050: 39.4
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 350
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 208
On average 18% less rain


Cairns
1960 - 90: 28.8
Year 2050: 31.6
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 301
Days (2050) over 35 degrees: 48
On average 16% less rain


Brisbane
1960 - 90: 25.6
Year 2050: 29.2
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 190
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 3
On average 21% less rain


Sydney
1960 - 90: 22.1
Year 2050: 25.4
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 62
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 5
On average 13% less rain


Melbourne
1960 - 90: 19.8
Year 2050: 22.6
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 52
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 6
On average 21% less rain


Adelaide
1960 - 90: 21.6
Year 2050: 24.2
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 85
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 15
On average 27% less rain


Perth
1960 - 90: 23.5
Year 2050: 26.6
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 125
Days (2050) over 40 degrees: 14
On average 38% less rain


Hobart
1960 - 90: 17
Year 2050: 19.1
Days (2050) over 30 degrees: 11
Days (2050) over 35 degrees: 6
On average 10% less rain

Very interesting, It seems the Democrats in the US have already declared armageddon by 2030 because of global warming, err, climate change. Let's see how this plays out.

 I dont think even the jehova's witnesses have come out with such accurate timeframes..  but hey, Gott mit uns

Edited by GottmitAlex
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kinzyjr

Scary stuff... let's hope that doesn't happen.

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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Scary stuff... let's hope that doesn't happen.

Agree, Not good.. Natural climate shifts are one thing, greatly accelerating such changes / shifts is another..

Saw an article stating that current Carbon levels are close to the highest they have been in 3 mil. years. Many other things i have glanced over discuss the mid- Pliocene warm analog as an era  the current climate might shift toward in time.. One i read, that involves the Sonoran Desert region discusses how the long extinct remains of a sp. of Iguana were found as far north as California. At the same time, the remains of Giant Ant Eaters, who now inhabit far southern Mexico and Central America, were found not too far south of the current AZ / Mexico Border.. Climate across the region was more tropical / received far more summer rain than it does currently, or is what was suggested of that time period.  Studies currently going on involving sediment cores being sampled from the Gulf of CA. should yield some interesting finds when analyzed.. particularly related to rainfall patterns across the southwest..

As far as predictions go, no way to say how accurately /or in-accurately they may pan out.. It's a lot like me hoping for a wet monsoonal season.. I can cross my fingers, but.. if conditions that would lean wet for the region at that time aren't favorable.. forget it, not gonna happen.. That's where studying all the patterns that lead one way or the other come in ..and i'll always trust science over remaining clueless, even if i keep a healthy dose of skepticism alive the whole time..   

As far as climate is concerned, again.. i put more trust in those who study all the working parts, and aren't afraid of freely discussing what those parts might be doing / why they might be outta' whack..  No confidence in those who bury their heads, don't want to make logical changes, or assume it is "someone -elses" problem for another time..   Sky isn't falling, but might get a lot warmer, a bit faster than it should..

For now, there's only one rock to live on.. Gotta take better care of it.. Even if that means making big changes, where change are called for..

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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tropicbreeze

Although this data was analysed and collated by climate scientists, the Australian Conservation Foundation got hold of it and set it up on their website. This year is an election year (federal) so the ACF is hoping to get some political mileage out of it.

It'll be interesting to see if this does become a big issue, or whether the electorate has become bored with it and complacent. The big dollars have been rolling out of Canberra (or at least promises of it) for a while now in anticipation of the election. What's going to guide the voters - altruism or 'hip pocket nerve'?

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UK_Palms

I've just had my driest year on record in 2018, with a mere 17 inches of rain, with summer 2018 also being the 2nd warmest on record, and this winter just gone being my warmest on record. We also broke the temperature record for February with 22C (73F). Back when I was a kid in the late 90s / early 2000s, I remember every recess/lunch time being stuck indoors at school because it was always pouring with rain constantly. But today we barely get any rain now and if we do it is really, really light and barely amount to anything.

At this point, anyone that tells me global warming/climate change isn't real is just completely oblivious and in denial. But I will admit that most of it is probably due to a natural warming trend, rather than due to humans burning fossil fuels, although that does also contribute to it, clearly.  I have definitely noticed a change in my climate here, and I am only 26 years old!

I can't even comprehend what a 2C temp increase will do to places like Australia. It's already 45C in summer in most places there and bone dry. Damn.

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Tyrone

I think it's not just due to fossil fuel burning but just mass forest clearing globally. It's known that forests can sequester so much carbon and help moderate climates by storing moisture in the air around their vicinity. The heat island effect of urban areas is due to the vegetation being cleared and buildings full of concrete and roads full of bitumen storing so much dry heat. Do that sort of thing globally and you will create a climate shift.

Here in the SW of Australia if you look at the last 120 years of rainfall you see a sharp drop off in the mid 1940's and then again a huge drop off in the early to mid 1970's. What happened at those times? The urban areas expanded in Perth thats what happened. With urban expansion came the need for timber, so forests were cut down to make the houses. After WW2 Perths population and the SW of Australia grew, then the first mining boom in the 1960's prompted massive population growth that contributed to vast areas of forest to be cleared and new areas of the SW to be cleared for farming areas, for grain and sheep production. The SW corner of the state used to be heavily forested at settlement. Most of it is gone now. A lot of it has turned to salt land. That would be a common story around the country and the world.

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mdsonofthesouth
On 4/9/2019 at 11:08 PM, GottmitAlex said:

Very interesting, It seems the Democrats in the US have already declared armageddon by 2030 because of global warming, err, climate change. Let's see how this plays out.

 I dont think even the jehova's witnesses have come out with such accurate timeframes..  but hey, Gott mit uns

Yeah apparently the world is over in 12 years according to them...now when did we hear this same tune before???

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