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RedRabbit

Possible Florida Freeze - January 2019

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RedRabbit

Heads up that there's a possible freeze coming for North and Central Florida next week. Here's what the Euro model is calling for on the 21st:

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(Credit to Mikes Weather Page for posting this on FB)

Edited by RedRabbit

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kinzyjr

Weather.com is currently calling for a low of 37F on Sunday, but with strong winds.  We shall see I guess.

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Matthew92

It's looking that very late January to even early February could have colder events. Of course model consensus and such was saying that this Jan 21st event was going to be very cold with freezing temps all the way into Central FL, and now as time has gotten closer, it has moderated with North FL only getting a light freeze (which could even still change). So a lot of time for things to change- although the pattern we are in favors cold shots into FL, so definitely not out of the firing line.

1461143599_PolarVortextweet2.PNG.74eb151ed3d3ecbeae99b54c4637caf8.PNG

1583930396_PolarVortexEuro.thumb.PNG.a68d4f71bb917610ef84a4b46a21e9f4.PNG

Edited by Opal92
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PalmatierMeg

Right now the local news channel is predicting 45F overnight Sunday and 48F overnight Monday. I've had lows of 44/45 predicted several time this winter already, so far have hit 46.8F twice. I'm hoping the prediction doesn't trend downward at the last minute but we'll see. It's a real balancing act trying to keep potted palms hydrated but not overwatered through this so they don't get root rot.

The trend over the next 7 days will be cooler but not frigid days and nights. I can deal with coolness as I anxiously await mid-Feb.

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mdsonofthesouth

Like I have said in another thread, with each day the forecast gets WORSE! Hoping for a microclimate break, but doubtful Ill stay zone 8 after this weekend. Sad to see a zone 9a winter go down the tubes :(

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Missi
4 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Right now the local news channel is predicting 45F overnight Sunday and 48F overnight Monday. I've had lows of 44/45 predicted several time this winter already, so far have hit 46.8F twice. I'm hoping the prediction doesn't trend downward at the last minute but we'll see. It's a real balancing act trying to keep potted palms hydrated but not overwatered through this so they don't get root rot.

The trend over the next 7 days will be cooler but not frigid days and nights. I can deal with coolness as I anxiously await mid-Feb.

Lucky you!! I've hit 39 a few nights! No damage so far, though!

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Walt

The University of Florida's weather station at Palmdale, Florida, bottomed out at 33.84 degrees at 7:00 a.m. (at 2 meters). Yet, the University of Florida's weather station at Sebring, Florida, about 40 miles to the north only recorded a low of 46.35 degrees at 4:30 a.m. (at 2 meters). I know Palmdale is almost always a cold spot, and runs colder than the Sebring station -- unless it's an advective cold night, then it's more southerly location tends to be warmer. https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/

 

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NC_Palms

It's funny how Cape Hatteras is reporting 27ºF while everywhere else in the state is in the high teens to low twenties  

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Jimbean

predicted low for south Brevard is 40F

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PalmatierMeg

Local weather channel has dropped Monday's low to 43F from original 45. Bad trend.

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Jimbean

as of now:

weather underground 40F

weather.com 41F

national weather service 44F

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kinzyjr

Expecting mid-to-upper 30's in my neck of the woods.  We'll see what we end up getting.  All of the up-and-down as far as temperature predictions indicates uncertainty.

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Hombre de Palmas

The one saving grace about this impending cold front is that we will get a quick warm up.

Some of the latest weather models are advertising a longer lasting and possibly colder period in the last week of January.

Yikes....but that, of course, is a long ways away.

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kinzyjr
20 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

The one saving grace about this impending cold front is that we will get a quick warm up.

Some of the latest weather models are advertising a longer lasting and possibly colder period in the last week of January.

Yikes....but that, of course, is a long ways away.

From the forecast for this one, they are predicting fairly heavy winds in my area (20-25 MPH).  I'm more worried about the wind than the cold to be honest.  We have another 2 months for mother nature to throw us a real curve ball, so we'll see how it goes. 

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PalmatierMeg

Predicted low for overnight Sun to Mon has dropped another degree: to 42F. Ominous but not critical yet. The rain ahead of the cold front is expected Sun a.m. but with only 1/4" instead of 1". We decided to run the sprinklers overnight as the cold isn't expected to hit till Sun night. It's been so dry I'm more worried about dessication at the moment. Looks lik another cold front next weekend carrying into Feb. Then, just a few more weeks........

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RedRabbit

The first euro model I saw had Tampa in the 20s on the 21st. Now I'm only seeing 40f in the forecast so it looks like the earlier euro model estimates were way too cold. 

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

The first euro model I saw had Tampa in the 20s on the 21st. Now I'm only seeing 40f in the forecast so it looks like the earlier euro model estimates were way too cold. 

I see mid-30s in our area.  I'll take that over 20s any day of the week.  If the doom and gloom predictions were to come true and we'd get a repeat of 1985, 20F for a low would have made life interesting for a while.

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Matthew92
38 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I see mid-30s in our area.  I'll take that over 20s any day of the week.  If the doom and gloom predictions were to come true and we'd get a repeat of 1985, 20F for a low would have made life interesting for a while.

Funny you mention 1985...just saw this...

1985.PNG.a6ab750f6c6a5ebd712f6fc4b0b9f262.PNG

 

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kinzyjr

@Opal92 Yes, that model by Joe Bastardi is floating around quite a bit.  @Sabal_Louisiana mentioned it in another thread.  For my location, it is especially significant because it is one of the two times Lakeland recorded its all-time record low of 20F, with the other being in 1962.

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Matthew92
14 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

@Opal92 Yes, that model by Joe Bastardi is floating around quite a bit.  @Sabal_Louisiana mentioned it in another thread.  For my location, it is especially significant because it is one of the two times Lakeland recorded its all-time record low of 20F, with the other being in 1962.

Yes, most cities in FL have that date for their lowest recorded temperature!

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bubba

I believe Opal gave the Tropical Tidbits weather link and I have found it to be very interesting. Going out beyond early February 2019, I did not see anything like the 1985 scenario that Bastardi implies.

It has been too warm down here in South Florida this winter. It felt like 80 F on the water today and that is too warm for January 19. PBIA predicted low of 45F upon passing of epochal cold front so that means 50-52F. Bastardi is selling advertising!

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Yunder Wækraus
On 1/18/2019 at 1:25 AM, Opal92 said:

It's looking that very late January to even early February could have colder events. Of course model consensus and such was saying that this Jan 21st event was going to be very cold with freezing temps all the way into Central FL, and now as time has gotten closer, it has moderated with North FL only getting a light freeze (which could even still change). So a lot of time for things to change- although the pattern we are in favors cold shots into FL, so definitely not out of the firing line.

1461143599_PolarVortextweet2.PNG.74eb151ed3d3ecbeae99b54c4637caf8.PNG

1583930396_PolarVortexEuro.thumb.PNG.a68d4f71bb917610ef84a4b46a21e9f4.PNG

Look at that lake effect south of Okeechobee!

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waykoolplantz

Projected to be 44 tonight. 

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Matthew92
9 hours ago, bubba said:

I believe Opal gave the Tropical Tidbits weather link and I have found it to be very interesting. Going out beyond early February 2019, I did not see anything like the 1985 scenario that Bastardi implies.

It has been too warm down here in South Florida this winter. It felt like 80 F on the water today and that is too warm for January 19. PBIA predicted low of 45F upon passing of epochal cold front so that means 50-52F. Bastardi is selling advertising!

Yeah, I think that model has already changed since then- I've learned to not take model runs too seriously- though it was interesting he brought up 1985.

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Jimbean

Forecast is holding at 40F, we will see what happens.

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PalmatierMeg

Local tv station holding firm at 42F. Winds are howling.

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Walt

Sebring FAWN predicts 36 degrees F low at around 7 a.m. with 6+ MPH wind (lowest force of the night). If the wind holds, at least that would reduce chances of frost. Not taking any chances, so I towed my trailer with potted palm on it and parked it under my FIcus altissima 'variegata' tree.

Plants_1-20-19.jpg

Plants_1-2019_(2).jpg

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Jimbean

38F Melbourne

38F my location in Palm Bay

42F Cocoa Beach

38F Merritt Island

37F Cocoa

37F Port St. John

38F Titusville

Elsewhere:

Daytona Airport 36F  Beachside 39F

Jacksonville metro 35F

Orlando metro 37F

Tampa metro 39F

St. Petersburg downtown 42F

West Palm Beach 42F

Miami 45F

Vero Beach 39F

Naples 44F

Port St. Lucie 39F

 

 

 

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PalmatierMeg
3 hours ago, Jimbean said:

38F Melbourne

38F my location in Palm Bay

42F Cocoa Beach

38F Merritt Island

37F Cocoa

37F Port St. John

38F Titusville

Elsewhere:

Daytona Airport 36F  Beachside 39F

Jacksonville metro 35F

Orlando metro 37F

Tampa metro 39F

St. Petersburg downtown 42F

West Palm Beach 42F

Miami 45F

Vero Beach 39F

Naples 44F

Port St. Lucie 39F

 

 

 

Cape Coral/Ft. Myers  44F

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FishEyeAquaculture

Dade City/Zephryhills: officially 38F

Unofficial temp per thermometer in backyard: 34F (northern Dade City, US301 near Pasco/Hernando county line) with light frost in the usual areas (lower open elevation parts of property). 

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Hombre de Palmas

It was 40°F in my backyard.

Some pretty ugly models popping up for the end of January/early February and while the details are far from settled, we seem to be stuck in a roller coaster regime for the foreseeable future. The problem is some of those valleys look pretty deep at the moment.

I might be swapping out my Christmas Palms for Sylvesters!

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RedRabbit

Looks like it was about 39 here and 41 at my place down south.

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Walt

Sebring FAWN bottomed out at 38.77 degrees at 7:30 a.m. But the Palmdale FAWN, 40 miles or so south (Glades County) bottomed out at 33.71 degrees at 6:45 a.m, at the 6 feet level temperature sensor on the weather tower, but at the 2 feet sensor the low was 29.89 degrees. That's almost a 4 degree difference in 4 feet of elevation.

I had to drive up to Sebring early this morning, and when I left the house the temperature was 36 degrees on my car thermometer, but slowly rose to 39 degrees as I got farther up on the ridge on US 27.

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ruskinPalms

All the weather stations on weather underground near me showed around 40F for the low this morning. My cheapo outdoor sensor was showing 41F around 5:45 this morning when I went to work. Could have been much worse if there was more snow pack up north. Also the gulf hasn’t been drained of its heat reserves yet this winter (but that is being taxed as we speak). 

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Estlander

Recorded 33.4F/0.8C in the open yard well away from the house and any canopy. Thermometer is about 5ft. off the ground.

Edited by Estlander

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Matthew92

The period of the 29th-31st is looking like the biggest risk of a FL freeze for the rest of January. As the models waffle around on how things will play out, the GFS is the most conservative showing only a light freeze in the FL Panhandle, the FV3 GFS, a little colder with a mid 20's freeze in the Western Panhandle, the Euro significantly colder, and the Canadian (GEM) the coldest, showing around 20 to upper teens late in the Panhandle and a possible light freeze in Central FL (this model is known for not being as reliable though).

Here's the GFS's coldest day for FL in the latest model run- which really is incredibly mild for this time of year

1060987608_GFSJan23.thumb.PNG.46b4abb83fe71320debe416ad34a380d.PNG

FV3 GFS a little colder

1471947398_FV3GFSJan232.thumb.PNG.c962bd94f0ac299a9ee57f2ee6b2188c.PNG

GEM (Canadian)

779449743_GEMJan23.thumb.PNG.3490b0dfb82fbb8451459c88324ae32e.PNG

EMCWF (the latest I could find from Twitter)

1348008119_ECMWFJan23.PNG.8e258c97423440528085f9d404cae517.PNG

Even though this was 20 hours ago, it shows how the Euro has been trending colder lately. A trough going this far down would give some serious freezing conditions for much of the state

702698496_Euro20.PNG.fee3bad46ff8902e8b5f38b52af007a3.PNG

Edited by Opal92

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Missi
On 1/21/2019 at 8:04 AM, Jimbean said:

38F Melbourne

38F my location in Palm Bay

42F Cocoa Beach

38F Merritt Island

37F Cocoa

37F Port St. John

38F Titusville

Elsewhere:

Daytona Airport 36F  Beachside 39F

Jacksonville metro 35F

Orlando metro 37F

Tampa metro 39F

St. Petersburg downtown 42F

West Palm Beach 42F

Miami 45F

Vero Beach 39F

Naples 44F

Port St. Lucie 39F

Naples *inland* 41F :bummed:

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RJ

Rule of thumb I've learned in years of watching weather. When the GEM (CMC/Canadian) starts to show cold it's going to get chilly. The numerical model tends to run warm. (Perhaps wishful thinking on the Canadian's part) 

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PalmatierMeg

The two GFS models show my area in the mid-60s, i.e., 65-66F. My question is: are those highs? That would be my guess.

The GEM has my area at 46F. I will assume that's a low as I've never seen a high lower than 50F in my 26 years living in SWFL.

66/46F is below normal for this time of year but not catastrophically cold.

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Steve the palmreader
51 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

The two GFS models show my area in the mid-60s, i.e., 65-66F. My question is: are those highs? That would be my guess.

The GEM has my area at 46F. I will assume that's a low as I've never seen a high lower than 50F in my 26 years living in SWFL.

66/46F is below normal for this time of year but not catastrophically cold.

In the winter of 2009/2010 We had a day with a high not braking 40 with a cold rain

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