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Silas_Sancona

*Wishful* Wx Forecast model blunders

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Silas_Sancona

Every so often even somewhat trusty weather models greatly get it wrong.. A suggested forecast that is.  This thread is dedicated to some of the more share-worthy you might come across..

Tonight's contender: Total accumulated precip. forecast (18z FV3- GFS run), per Tropical Tidbits.. Note the totals on the far right.  12- 18"+of rain for Phoenix?? Ditch the coat, for a boat?:floor::bemused:   ..and still, S. Cal doesn't get much..
fv3p_apcpn_us_64.png.6250d9aa9c2e8ab1ddd


Gotta love software glitches:rolleyes:

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bubba

Interesting to note minor items on sites like Weather Underground. Numerous locations around Phoenix reporting 24F but WU has official low listed at 36F. 

Same is true in California. Thermal reporting 26F according to NWS at 2AM but WU low listed at 34F. Ramona reporting 32F at 2AM according to NWS but WU low listed at 34F. Scripps Ranch reporting 29F but WU low listed at 37F. Insane micro-climates!

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AZPalms

27f out in the far West Valley :(. I’m going to uncover my palms on Saturday morning when this is behind us. I’m hoping for the best. About 20 minutes northwest of my house WU reporting 22-24f!! 

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Silas_Sancona
6 hours ago, AZPalms said:

27f out in the far West Valley :(. I’m going to uncover my palms on Saturday morning when this is behind us. I’m hoping for the best. About 20 minutes northwest of my house WU reporting 22-24f!! 

I saw that while looking over valley readings this morning.. I don't doubt the complete lack of any breezes last night is why temps were below 35 by midnight across most of the Valley.. There's a ( likely malfunctioning ) W.U. WX station over by Chandler Fashion Center that at one point late last night was reading 21F.. All others by it were no colder than 28F at the same time.

To add to the weather weirdness of late, this caught my eye..

What ever it does, IF it hangs on, formation chance currently sits at 30% @ 48 hours.. 50% chance over the next 5 days, according to the stated time stamp by the Hurricane center..  And it's only Jan. 3rd..  LOL..
two_pac_0d0.png.8e870e09773bbf8437dfbf37

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AZPalms
1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I saw that while looking over valley readings this morning.. I don't doubt the complete lack of any breezes last night is why temps were below 35 by midnight across most of the Valley.. There's a ( likely malfunctioning ) W.U. WX station over by Chandler Fashion Center that at one point late last night was reading 21F.. All others by it were no colder than 28F at the same time.

To add to the weather weirdness of late, this caught my eye..

What ever it does, IF it hangs on, formation chance currently sits at 30% @ 48 hours.. 50% chance over the next 5 days, according to the stated time stamp by the Hurricane center..  And it's only Jan. 3rd..  LOL..
two_pac_0d0.png.8e870e09773bbf8437dfbf37

If I was in Wickenburg or Wittman, I’d be toast. Amazing how the mountains wrap along and block some of that cold air from the north, even just 20 minutes away. 

Watch that turn into a hurricane and bring us another 3” of rain. I’d just start my yard over at that point lol 

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