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Polar Vortex on the Way?

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mdsonofthesouth

Already in a cold front til Wednesday maybe Thursday. Then normal January seems to come back. We started with the forecast with an ultimate low of 25F then dipped to 18f for a split second and now we are strait low to mid 20s for lows for more days now. I hope the forecast improves some more and we go back to normal temps so I can continue being stress free lol.

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Matthew92

Further developments: looking like a significant cold wave could impact the US in late January. Models are starting to latch onto this.

Still far out enough to not get too detailed, but the general pattern change and cold signal being picked up on is the emphasis here.

5c39687b864d6_polarvortex3.PNG.51c53ca6d

5c39687a0953c_Polarvortex4.PNG.3a5fb90d2

Edited by Opal92

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bubba

This is interesting. Thank you.

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mdsonofthesouth

Yeah the 20th and especially the 21st look BAD! Sunday night we drop bellow freezing and might not go above til tuesday...maybe later. So done with cold....

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Palm crazy

Sorry to see this going to happen but this week will not be warm for the East Coast and S.E. There will be two cold waves. The first one will not be that bad but the second one will travel more south plus bring snow and colder temps.   On the West Coast, it will be mild and rainy. 

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bubba

Iguanas fall out of trees at 50F! Those are the kind of lows we are hoping for down here. 80F/60F is good for palms but for humans some cool air is only fair.

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Matthew92

If things continue to play out the way they are, much of FL could miss out on much of the Polar Vortex "fun." While places in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and parts of the South are getting the effects, the troughs and cold air simply aren't making it all the way down here. Somewhat reminiscent to 2014 where while the Panhandle got low 20's and frozen precipitation, the dynamics kept it out of the peninsula as most areas south of Gainesville didn't even get below freezing.

I still have a hard time believing we are going to get through this winter with the coldest parts of FL (the Panhandle) not getting below upper 20's.

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kinzyjr
11 hours ago, Opal92 said:

If things continue to play out the way they are, much of FL could miss out on much of the Polar Vortex "fun." While places in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and parts of the South are getting the effects, the troughs and cold air simply aren't making it all the way down here. Somewhat reminiscent to 2014 where while the Panhandle got low 20's and frozen precipitation, the dynamics kept it out of the peninsula as most areas south of Gainesville didn't even get below freezing.

I still have a hard time believing we are going to get through this winter with the coldest parts of FL (the Panhandle) not getting below upper 20's.

I'll be very happy to escape this cool-but-not-frigid winter with an absolute low in the upper 30s.  Time will tell.  February and March have delivered some haymakers in the past.

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bubba

Watching the runs at Tropical Tidbits, which are up to February 7/8, 2019. South Florida is in the 80’sF. At this point down in these parts the sun angle is just too strong combined with the Gulfstream to create any realistic likelihood of Artic Armegedon.

By the way, Tropical Tidbits has been spot-on. The Polar Vortex was real and some dramatic cold in the NE, Mid-West and parts of the South East but Bastardi’s hopes of icicles in our Cocos nucifera did not pan out.

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Matthew92
13 hours ago, bubba said:

Watching the runs at Tropical Tidbits, which are up to February 7/8, 2019. South Florida is in the 80’sF. At this point down in these parts the sun angle is just too strong combined with the Gulfstream to create any realistic likelihood of Artic Armegedon.

By the way, Tropical Tidbits has been spot-on. The Polar Vortex was real and some dramatic cold in the NE, Mid-West and parts of the South East but Bastardi’s hopes of icicles in our Cocos nucifera did not pan out.

If you look at his Twitter- he's still harping upon the 1985 analog- although it's more about the overall setup which is similar to that winter, and as you mentioned, areas north of FL will feel it more brutally. 1985 sure wins the prize for the polar air coming that far south. I still can't get over how it got to 4 degrees in my hometown in the Panhandle in that event.

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Estlander
On 1/23/2019 at 10:35 AM, Opal92 said:

If things continue to play out the way they are, much of FL could miss out on much of the Polar Vortex "fun." While places in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and parts of the South are getting the effects, the troughs and cold air simply aren't making it all the way down here. Somewhat reminiscent to 2014 where while the Panhandle got low 20's and frozen precipitation, the dynamics kept it out of the peninsula as most areas south of Gainesville didn't even get below freezing.

I still have a hard time believing we are going to get through this winter with the coldest parts of FL (the Panhandle) not getting below upper 20's.

Looks like we’re not gonna miss out on the Polar Vortex “fun” after all. Predicted Tuesday night low for Crestview is now 21F, Niceville 24F and Destin 27F, Lake City 26F, Gainesville 28F and Ocala 29F.    :( 

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Jimbean

predicted low here so far is 41F.  So far our lowest has been 38F, and appears to be an above average winter.

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kinzyjr

Looking like some mid-to-upper 30s next week on Tuesday and Wednesday in my neck of the woods.  Maybe it will go away if I refresh my browser...

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Estlander
2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Maybe it will go away if I refresh my browser...

That’s what I’m hoping as well,.....for this nightmare to go away if I refresh my browser, lol. But if anything it would probably show even lower. :(

Was so hoping to get away with no damage to anything in my yard this winter. But seeing how it’s north Florida, that’s probably too much to ask for :S

Now, if it only gets to 27F, then I guess that’s not too bad. Shouldn’t cause any damage to any of my palms, not even my Majesty palms and Pygmy Date, nor my Philodendrons. But it’s most likely bye-bye to my Banana and California Elephant Ear leaves. But those are super fast growers and will be back in no time. 

Edited by Estlander

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Estlander
3 hours ago, Estlander said:

Looks like we’re not gonna miss out on the Polar Vortex “fun” after all. Predicted Tuesday night low for Crestview is now 21F, Niceville 24F and Destin 27F, Lake City 26F, Gainesville 28F and Ocala 29F.    :( 

What’s interesting is how much difference exists between weather sites. 

Weather.com now predicts 26F for my area on Tuesday night, Accuweather and WU say 28F, while Weatherbug says 32F and National Weather Service says around 34F.   

 

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The7thLegend
3 hours ago, Estlander said:

What’s interesting is how much difference exists between weather sites. 

Weather.com now predicts 26F for my area on Tuesday night, Accuweather and WU say 28F, while Weatherbug says 32F and National Weather Service says around 34F.   

 

That's a considerable amount of discrepancy between forecasts, to freeze or not to freeze?   That is the question.  Nothing to be concerned about yet either but if it continues to trend lower I may be bringing in or covering a few plants.  It will be interesting which forecast(s) get it right.   Usually Weather.com and NWS are most reliable to me.

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GottmitAlex
15 minutes ago, The7thLegend said:

That's a considerable amount of discrepancy between forecasts, to freeze or not to freeze?   That is the question.  Nothing to be concerned about yet either but if it continues to trend lower I may be bringing in or covering a few plants.  It will be interesting which forecast(s) get it right.   Usually Weather.com and NWS are most reliable to me.

Hear, hear. If any of the forcasts for my area hover 3-6 degrees below freezing or 2-3 degrees above freezing. I would expect freezing and protect my tender plants.

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Estlander

They now all seem to agree it's gonna be below freezing, ranging from 31-25F with weather.com being the lowest and NWS the highest. I guess we should get the most precise figures on Tuesday daytime about the night ahead. But it's not looking good though. Jacksonville is now forecast to go below freezing as well, 28F as per weather.com.

Kinzyjr, weather.com is showing Lakeland going down to 33F now.

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kinzyjr
2 hours ago, Estlander said:

They now all seem to agree it's gonna be below freezing, ranging from 31-25F with weather.com being the lowest and NWS the highest. I guess we should get the most precise figures on Tuesday daytime about the night ahead. But it's not looking good though. Jacksonville is now forecast to go below freezing as well, 28F as per weather.com.

Kinzyjr, weather.com is showing Lakeland going down to 33F now.

Yeah, I refreshed and the bad went away and became worse.  Go figure LOL.

201901252205_Weather.png

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Matthew92
11 hours ago, Estlander said:

Looks like we’re not gonna miss out on the Polar Vortex “fun” after all. Predicted Tuesday night low for Crestview is now 21F, Niceville 24F and Destin 27F, Lake City 26F, Gainesville 28F and Ocala 29F.    :( 

Yes, starting to trend colder each time I check. Next Wednesday, the Polar Vortex is going to take a dip farther south than any other event this winter- record lows will probably be broken in places like the Midwest. Some of the earlier model runs had the cold with the vortex focused more north of us, but more recently, looks like it might drop even further south.

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GottmitAlex
18 minutes ago, Opal92 said:

Yes, starting to trend colder each time I check. Next Wednesday, the Polar Vortex is going to take a dip farther south than any other event this winter- record lows will probably be broken in places like the Midwest. Some of the earlier model runs had the cold with the vortex focused more north of us, but more recently, looks like it might drop even further south.

When it comes to PT, I dont think folks would be crying wolf about this....

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Estlander

What a roller coaster! Now the low is back up again at 29F. 

 

 

Edited by Estlander

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Estlander

41045F2B-810C-41CD-9166-1BAE57035C3F.jpeg

0E98B957-1D44-4A4D-8EFD-589055E4E0E9.jpeg

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kinzyjr
11 hours ago, Estlander said:

What a roller coaster! Now the low is back up again at 29F.

Refreshed again.  Not great, but better ;)

201901262150_Weather.png

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Zeeth

I've always trusted weather.gov the most of any of the weather services, and so far it seems like this last cold snap will be chilly, but the lows will be manageable for me. 

151954275_ScreenShot2019-01-27at07_20_47.thumb.png.1fbd5a5c26492d748a49bfc291ccc6bd.png

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Xhoniwaters1

Forecast is looking better and better and better

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Jimbean

Now they are saying 47F

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Walt

The official low so far in my area (Sebring FAWN weather station) was 38.77 degrees on the morning of January 21st. I was on the road early that morning and my car thermometer read 36 degrees, which rose to 39 degrees as I left my subdivision and drove up to US 27 on higher ground. If the 10-day forecast remains as what's shown in the below graphic, I will delighted. I really don't feel like breaking out trunk and meristem freeze protection for my coconut palm and African oil palm.

10-day Lake Placid, FL. forecast.png

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Estlander
13 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Refreshed again.  Not great, but better ;)

201901262150_Weather.png

Yours looks very good. Getting better up here as well. New refreshed low is now 31F. 

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mdsonofthesouth

Our low and highs got upgraded all except one low that has only gotten worse. So instead of a several day mess its one extreme low within a chain of lower than average temps. Much better outlook but still worried the one night might knock us to a z7 winter. 

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Funkthulhu

Well, north bedroom window started moaning and farting at about 5 am.  Can't really sleep through that as it sounds like a ghost is having too much fun in your bedroom.  

Temp is down 20F, wind out of the NNW gusting up to 40 mph, and the low on Wednesday morning might be -8F (without windchill)...

Why do I live where the air hurts my face?

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Estlander

The low for Tuesday night is now above freezing at 33F. Looks like I’m gonna have my 10A winter after all. Not bad for north Florida :D 

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Matthew92
31 minutes ago, Estlander said:

The low for Tuesday night is now above freezing at 33F. Looks like I’m gonna have my 10A winter after all. Not bad for north Florida :D 

I'm still seeing weather.com showing a 32 deg low for Destin. Of course, they usually aren't that accurate to the degree a couple days out anyway.

Starting on the 24th of Jan, the weather station near my parent's house in Niceville has had consecutive lows of 30, 28, 27, 33, and 28! I think you very well could be in the warmest micro-climate in all of the Western FL Panhandle. Although I did see weather stations very close to you get as low as 33 this morning.

It would be incredible if you indeed don't get below 10a, as that is almost unheard of there. That would be the warmest winter since 1997-98 where nearby Eglin Air Force Base reported 28 degrees as the coldest.

Edited by Opal92

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Palm crazy

I thought the upper northern states were going to be mild this year? This is seriously winding chill. 

Mpolar-1050x525.png

Edited by Palm crazy

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PalmatierMeg

Another strange, chilly day. Sunday we got 4" of rain with temps in the low 50s. Low overnight was 48F. At 11:30 a.m. this morning, temp was 50.7F with heavy clouds and gusting winds. Skies started clearing after lunch and with some sun, high reached 57.1F at 3:30 p.m. At 4 the temp had fallen to 56.8. Low tonight in the 40s. Rest of the week will be 60s/40s. I hope all the rain and chilly temps doesn't decimate my container garden.

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Xhoniwaters1

With all the hype that's been swirling I would have thought this outbreak would have been like the woes from last January. Forecast has me above freezing now which means I have still yet to drop below 32 this winter. It has been a chilly winter for the panhandle though with most days not even making it to 60 degrees. It definitely has felt abnormally chilly here for awhile but ironically no extreme lows to put much of a dent on anything except for my heat loving coccothrinax that looks terrible at the moment.

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Estlander
9 hours ago, Opal92 said:

I'm still seeing weather.com showing a 32 deg low for Destin. Of course, they usually aren't that accurate to the degree a couple days out anyway.

Starting on the 24th of Jan, the weather station near my parent's house in Niceville has had consecutive lows of 30, 28, 27, 33, and 28! I think you very well could be in the warmest micro-climate in all of the Western FL Panhandle. Although I did see weather stations very close to you get as low as 33 this morning.

It would be incredible if you indeed don't get below 10a, as that is almost unheard of there. That would be the warmest winter since 1997-98 where nearby Eglin Air Force Base reported 28 degrees as the coldest.

Weather. com has been firm on 33F all day and still for Miramar Beach and Santa Rosa Beach. Destin is showing as 32F.

I have two thermometers in different parts of the yard and the lowest I've recorded in my yard this winter is 0.6C/33.08F Yes, last night went down to 0.9C/33.62F in my yard as well.

 

Capture.JPG

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Estlander

What’s s crazy is that costal panhandle is one of the warmest places in FL tonight. 

Oops, the temps are in Celsius, but you get the picture. :)

 

4.JPG

1.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

5.JPG

Edited by Estlander
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ActualTrachycarpus
5 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

I thought the upper northern states were going to be mild this year? This is seriously winding chill. 

Mpolar-1050x525.png

Tell me about it. I am glad I didn't put any palms in the ground this year. All my garage palms are safe and sound inside thankfully.

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Jimbean

44F, as predicted. 

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