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What is your current yard temperature?

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kinzyjr

My minimum readings between 42F and 44F for this morning.  I did think we were headed below 40F, but the temperature stopped dropping sometime after 1am.

image.png.73dd66265861eb847e07349ac97d6141.png

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PalmatierMeg

Current temp is 65.1F. Low this morning was 50.9. Quite a rebound.

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chinandega81

My thoughts about this past cold front are that it stayed breezy throughout the night. I think the wind kept temps from getting as cold as expected in a lot of areas, but it also made it colder in typically warmer areas. I hope January is warmer than December is shaping up to be. Does anybody know the long range forecast?

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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, chinandega81 said:

My thoughts about this past cold front are that it stayed breezy throughout the night. I think the wind kept temps from getting as cold as expected in a lot of areas, but it also made it colder in typically warmer areas. I hope January is warmer than December is shaping up to be. Does anybody know the long range forecast?

There are several.. with a few different outcomes for the next couple months. One thing i have no trust in, the GFS.. LOTS of volatility in each run, and likely more ahead if some stuff suggested below comes to pass later on.  We've gone from warm and dry,  to wet w/ a possible cold outbreak here/ for CA. , back to dry and warm again at least 4 times between model runs in the last 7 days.. CFS long range ( over on Pivitol Weather ) has been a bit more consistent ( out to the start of Jan. now ) But, it too has started fluctuating more over the past day or two..  " Wait and see " is the motto i'm sticking to this year, even though the likely outcome, at least here, is pretty much set in stone..

Best to check in on weekly updates via Judah Cohen's blog on AER..

This, from Michael Ventrice ( MJVentrice on Twitter ) is also worth noting, particularly back east:




...Aand a wayy ahead of the game glimpse at what next summer might have in store,  Also from Mike:  Blue/Purple values, over/ east of Africa indicate upward motion/ enhanced convection potential. Reverse of that centered over the Pacific. Hoping it shifts a tad further west in updates over the next 6 months so the Southwest will see at least a decent Monsoon 2021.

 

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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RedRabbit
2 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

There are several.. with a few different outcomes for the next couple months. One thing i have no trust in, the GFS.. LOTS of volatility in each run, and likely more ahead if some stuff suggested below comes to pass later on.  We've gone from warm to wet and a possible cold outbreak at least 4 times between model runs in the last 7 days.. CFS longrange ( over on Pivitol Weather ) has been a bit more consistent ( out to the start of Jan. now ) But, it too has started fluctuating more over the past day or two..  " Wait and see " is the motto i'm sticking to this year, even though the likely outcome, at least here, is pretty much set in stone..

Best to check in on weekly updates via Judah Cohen's blog on AER..

This, from Michael Ventrice ( MJVentrice on Twitter ) is also worth noting, particularly back east:




...Aand a wayy ahead of the game glimpse at what next summer might have in store,  Also from Mike:  Blue/Purple values, over/ east of Africa indicate upward motion/ enhanced convection potential. Reverse of that centered over the Pacific. Hoping it shifts a tad further west in updates over the next 6 months so the Southwest will see at least a decent Monsoon 2021.

 

Thanks, I guess next year will be the one I finally buy hurricane insurance.

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RyManUtah

Chilly this morning. Measuring 27F in warm spots, and 20F in the open.. Ny nearest station Marks 21F.

7147D85F-493F-4EA1-9891-02E7850C69F7.jpeg.efacc9b60268a4c7b41bf1376643ccb9.jpeg

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PalmatierMeg

Current temp = 70.3F. Actual low = 53.0F (predicted 50F)

This first cold front is pretty much over. Next one due this weekend, then yet another after that.

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Reyes Vargas

It's pretty chilli here at least for this area.  But it's going to get up in 70s and 80s next week.  Can't complain.  At least it's not in the 20s @RyManUtah.  

Screenshot_2020-12-04-09-00-37.png

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Silas_Sancona

Bottomed out at a crispy zone 10A 34F, for about an hour as the sun rose here. No signs of frost / ice on open containers i leave out in the yard though. Gotta love super-dry air.

Coldest readings i could find locally were some 30F readings out in the San Tan Valley/ Queen Creek/ Queen Valley, ..A single 27F not far from the house, likely a bad reading though since all other surrounding stations in that neighborhood were reading 34-37F at the same time...  And a cluster of 26-29F readings right along the river just north/northeast of downtown Tucson.. Most readings there were in the 33-38F range.  Sky Harbor/ Downtown Phoenix stayed above 40. 

Maybe as cold, though likely a few degrees warmer, overall, tonight, then back -near 80F-, for a couple days at least, by Monday.. Many local forecasts had suggested at least a 20% chance for showers by next Thursday/Friday.. Looking like those chances are fading away on this morning's model runs..    100+ days w/out rain, and counting..

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Silas_Sancona

Decent recovery ( managed 66F around 3pm ) after that crispy start earlier.  Chilly again tonight but all potential frost/freeze watches which were posted just south of town yesterday, are confined to areas near Blythe and Parker ( west of Phoenix ) and down the Colorado River toward Yuma and Date Land.  35-37F is whats forecast locally. 40-42F for Sky Harbor.  Back around 70F tomorrow.

As for that dry air? Current humidity/ Dew Point, per the "official " local NWS station, down the road at Chandler Muni. Airport, is 9% w/ a Dew Point of 7 Deg..  Dew point is currently down to 5 deg at Sky Harbor.  ..And we aren't the only area with virtually no moisture in the air at the moment..

Check out the 3PM Dew Point readings in/around San Diego:


 

 

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Reyes Vargas
31 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Decent recovery ( managed 66F around 3pm ) after that crispy start earlier.  Chilly again tonight but all potential frost/freeze watches which were posted just south of town yesterday, are confined to areas near Blythe and Parker ( west of Phoenix ) and down the Colorado River toward Yuma and Date Land.  35-37F is whats forecast locally. 40-42F for Sky Harbor.  Back around 70F tomorrow.

As for that dry air? Current humidity/ Dew Point, per the "official " local NWS station, down the road at Chandler Muni. Airport, is 9% w/ a Dew Point of 7 Deg..  Dew point is currently down to 5 deg at Sky Harbor.  ..And we aren't the only area with virtually no moisture in the air at the moment..

Check out the 3PM Dew Point readings in/around San Diego:


 

 

That dew point is insane.  I have never experienced dew points that low.  What is the lowest dew point you have seen?

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Silas_Sancona
3 minutes ago, Reyes Vargas said:

That dew point is insane.  I have never experienced dew points that low.  What is the lowest dew point you have seen?

Was either this past summer.. or 2019 ( Maybe both, it all blends together after awhile honestly, lol ) but have seen humidity values hit 1% and -10 or so Dew Point readings a few times.  Crazy as it sounds but such low values can make an otherwise miserable " Open Oven, set on Broil " kind of days, ..say when it is 114F or so,  feel " somewhat tolerable ".. at least for a bit longer, if you happen to be out in it, lol.. 

You can really tell the difference on such days, esp. during Monsoon Season, when a Gulf Surge from the Gulf of CA / Sea of Cortez causes both values suddenly jump from the teens/ single digits, to the mid-30's / low 40's over the course of a few hours. Unfortunately, that doesn't always signal any rain might be on the way.

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Reyes Vargas

Miserable day today.  It's 49 degrees right now and drizzly.  It should get in the 50s but if it continues to drizzle I doubt it.  Here is a picture of the weather radar.  I'm the little blue dot.

Screenshot_2020-12-05-09-41-10.png

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kinzyjr

Pleasant yesterday and today.  Another cold snap on the way though:

image.png.a4d7c00959e08324027a8275a91bb077.png

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chinandega81
23 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Pleasant yesterday and today.  Another cold snap on the way though:

image.png.a4d7c00959e08324027a8275a91bb077.png

Temps keep treniding down. Mid 40s for Miami and highs in the mid 60s this week. That can't be a good sign for Central Florida. I don't remember having so many consistent cold fronts in December before...seems more like a mid or late winter pattern right off the bat. I hope the long range forecasts trend to a warmer pattern for us.

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ahosey01

Hit 25 degrees at the lowest part of my yard this morning in Wickenburg.  High is supposed to be ~80 today.  Will report on that temp around 12:00 or 1:00.  This 50+ degree diurnal temperature variation is consistent with what I've seen this fall.

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Silas_Sancona

A crispy 36F to start the day, 43F atm, headed for 79-82F later, depending how quickly high clouds move in.. Warm until a possible ( though not likely.. Models haven't been consistent, even 24-48 hours out ) chance of showers Thursday, then hanging around the 60s- to about 72F by next weekend.

Jan. update of the NMME Models are out today.. Sharing the suggested temperature plots for the Jan- Mar. time frame.  ***Remember, what is suggested, doesn't always equal what actually happens and that " above normal, overall, doesn't equal a complete absence of any cold ".. Will compare later***  Note that some of the data ( mostly the NMME, Fcst prob/ PAC calib. prob { top 3 boxes } ) hasn't switched over from last months' update yet )

Jan: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html


Feb:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html


Mar:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html



Models now go out to July, so decided to share a glimpse of what the models might be picking up on *** for now *** ...At 7 months out, can't trust much of what is suggested as suggested trends will waffle back an forth as usual, but, a glimmer of hope at least for next years' Monsoon season ( ..at least it won't be 2020, lol ).  Hoping the next 6 updates build upon the " favorable " suggestions. CFS monthly over on Pivitol Weather have been a touch optimistic for the same time frame as well..  We'll see.

June:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead6.html



July:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead7.html


2 big things i'll be watching until then: Where the core of well above normal heat settles in this spring, and how wet or dry the Plains/ Midwest trend come Spring/ early Summer.. Dry/hot there as we start Summer, better chance heat isn't as brutal as last year, and better opportunity for an actual summer rainy season on this side of the Rockies..  ..And we'll need " something " badly by then.


For now, brutally dry across most of the Southwest/ AZ  and while we might see a little rain here and there, no drought busters on the way, any time soon.. 

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RedRabbit

So far in December my average temperature has only been 57f and we’ve still got a chilly couple weeks ahead of us in Florida. This should cool off the water so if a big cold front comes through towards the end of the month Florida is going to be vulnerable to a freeze. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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kinzyjr
7 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Temps keep treniding down. Mid 40s for Miami and highs in the mid 60s this week. That can't be a good sign for Central Florida. I don't remember having so many consistent cold fronts in December before...seems more like a mid or late winter pattern right off the bat. I hope the long range forecasts trend to a warmer pattern for us.

Not that December 2020 has been great, December 2010 was worse.  There were even some areas that set their annual low in December of that year, rather than that horrible January.  @RedRabbit has a good point.  If we do get one of those really nasty fronts in January, it's going to hurt that the water has been cooled off by these little dips into the 30s.  Not looking as bad as before in the forecast though:

image.png.5b6e6c86c498a9ec677290fa37d99641.png

 

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Silas_Sancona
5 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

A crispy 36F to start the day, 43F atm, headed for 79-82F later, depending how quickly high clouds move in.. Warm until a possible ( though not likely.. Models haven't been consistent, even 24-48 hours out ) chance of showers Thursday, then hanging around the 60s- to about 72F by next weekend.
 

As thought, the perfect, -for December- reward after a cool start.. Even with a few passing clouds/ light breeze, most Wx stations across the East Valley -and most of Phoenix for that matter- are situated between 78-82F atm.  A few neighborhood stations even managed to squeak out 83-84 here and there through the day. Not bad.  Repeat tomorrow.

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GottmitAlex

9:49pm PST, Dec 7th, 2020

24C/75.2F.  

Wow! 

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ahosey01
16 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

As thought, the perfect, -for December- reward after a cool start.. Even with a few passing clouds/ light breeze, most Wx stations across the East Valley -and most of Phoenix for that matter- are situated between 78-82F atm.  A few neighborhood stations even managed to squeak out 83-84 here and there through the day. Not bad.  Repeat tomorrow.

Consistent with my experience.

We hit 81 at my house.  That’s a 56 degree temperature swing from the 25 morning low.  LOL

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PalmatierMeg

53.8F at the moment. Low was 50.2F. Predicted = 50F so forecast was spot on. High to be 64F.

Predicted low overnight = 44F      Predicted low Thurs = 49F

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JJPalmer

Dropped down to a chilly 46 degrees here in St. Pete at 6:45AM.  Tomorrow will be interesting. A decent amount of variance in the models this morning, with the GFS skewing warmer than the others.  The HRRR tends to think we'll see a NE wind in West-Central and SW Florida this evening with a NW wind across the Eastern portions of the state.  This will drop temps statewide.  Would love to see how warm Pahokee stays this evening. 

image.thumb.png.42e19319b16f640a76f7b7017da1bcc5.pngimage.thumb.png.c8f77bb830abda6a72c040591406da49.png

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PalmatierMeg

Sun is fixing to set and temp has dropped to 59.2F. High today was only 61F with a cutting wind vs predicted 64F. Predicted low has dropped a degree to 43F. I hope a breeze stirs the air overnight.

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chinandega81
On 12/7/2020 at 4:55 PM, kinzyjr said:

Not that December 2020 has been great, December 2010 was worse.  There were even some areas that set their annual low in December of that year, rather than that horrible January.  @RedRabbit has a good point.  If we do get one of those really nasty fronts in January, it's going to hurt that the water has been cooled off by these little dips into the 30s.  Not looking as bad as before in the forecast though:

image.png.5b6e6c86c498a9ec677290fa37d99641.png

 

It was only 64 in Miami today with bright sunshine all day. It's in the mid 50s at 630PM now. I'm worried about where we will bottom out, lots of ultra tropical tender vegetation here. At least this will stimulate the mangos to bloom. I see tomorrow and tomorrow night will be equally cold here...and NEXT week they are forecasting another strong front on Tuesday I believe.  I am worried about this cooling off the water to protect us later in the season...the surf off Miami Beach is down to 75 already...

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chinandega81
1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Sun is fixing to set and temp has dropped to 59.2F. High today was only 61F with a cutting wind vs predicted 64F. Predicted low has dropped a degree to 43F. I hope a breeze stirs the air overnight.

It looks like you will get a NE wind later tonight. The air is dry and the night is long. I hope that if the wind keeps up at least that will keep the atmosphere stirred up. Why do the forecasts always trend colder in the winter? ugh.

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PalmatierMeg

Currently 51.3F. Actual low was 47.5F vs predicted 43F. Predicted high = 65F. Predicted overnight = 48F. Then a slight warmup.

 

Q) Why do the forecasts always trend colder in the winter?

A) To torment us.

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climate change virginia

we might get some flurries this week :) ....or just cold rain :(

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chinandega81
52 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Currently 51.3F. Actual low was 47.5F vs predicted 43F. Predicted high = 65F. Predicted overnight = 48F. Then a slight warmup.

 

Q) Why do the forecasts always trend colder in the winter?

A) To torment us.

Your temps are similar to the SE coast. Your stats and forecast are the same from my yard lol! At least we have bright sunshine...a low cloud deck with drizzle or light rain like they get in South Texas would be terrible. They are also saying next week's front might or might not be as strong as originally thought. There is hope!!

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jreich85

Does anyone know a good source for solid forecast predictions for FL? I follow the NWS detailed local forecast and the predictions from the local news, and they have been wrong with the temps last week and last night.

Last Wednesdays low was supposed to be 37 and I got down to 32. Last night was supposed to get down to 39, and we were also out of the local frost advisory zone. I woke up to 34 and frost so thick it looked like snow:( I’m now worried for my coconut palms (they’re potted but were not brought under cover).

I’m about 2 miles from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach and very close to the intracoastal and marsh, so have always thought that we should be the warmer part of our forecast area unless the tide is low around sunrise.

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chinandega81
4 hours ago, jreich85 said:

Does anyone know a good source for solid forecast predictions for FL? I follow the NWS detailed local forecast and the predictions from the local news, and they have been wrong with the temps last week and last night.

Last Wednesdays low was supposed to be 37 and I got down to 32. Last night was supposed to get down to 39, and we were also out of the local frost advisory zone. I woke up to 34 and frost so thick it looked like snow:( I’m now worried for my coconut palms (they’re potted but were not brought under cover).

I’m about 2 miles from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach and very close to the intracoastal and marsh, so have always thought that we should be the warmer part of our forecast area unless the tide is low around sunrise.

I don't have a source for you but I will tell you this. If you are forecasted to have a land breeze at night time during a cold spell, being near the water has a minimal effect of localized warming. You hear a lot about urban heat island affects, coastal areas staying warmer...and that is all true, but it isn't always a factor. Much like last night. Those factors come into play on nights with little to no wind (we had a continuous NW land breeze last night). They also play a role when the wind is blowing from the water to the land. As you noted, if you have a canal or estuary that can help a lot, but if low tide coincides with the coldest time, the moderating effect is diminished.

I looked at Weather Underground readings last night and they were pretty similar all over Miami Dade County with coastal areas only about 2 degrees warmer (barrier islands). Other varietions had to do with reporting stations being downwind and right on retention ponds and small subdivision lakes. There wasn't too much difference in heavily urban neighborhoods vs leafy suburban areas by the time 6AM rolled around as the land breeze kept up all night.

 

My personal rule is to always assume I will be colder than the forecast. Readings taken at offficial stations are higher up and warmer at night than in your yard. Also, check the Weather Underground map of real time weather stations to see how your area behaves in cold snaps. It really is a guessing game to an extent. Sometimes it doesn´t bottom out as low as they forecast if wind stays up, and if the lower atmosphere decouples unexpectedly like last night, it can get several degrees cooler than expected. These are small scale changes that really aren't forecastable. And most TV meteorologists won't take the time to explain the range of possibilities and will instead give a nice easy range of temps and generalize based on different zones. 

I'm sorry about your frost. Remember that frost can be common when lows are forecast to be anywhere in the 30s. Coconuts should probably be protected on nights below 50 if they are in a container since their roots will cool more quickly. I hope you palms recover. Good luck!

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Silas_Sancona

After a mild start, 48F here in Chandler, 53F.. or 8 deg above normal at Sky Harbor this morning, almost impossible to ask for a more perfect afternoon - in December- around town today.. as clouds start rolling in.  Only expected to drop to the mid/lower 50s again tonight.. only the low 60s, maybe some upper 50s tomorrow..

Some of the readings around the East Valley about a half hour ago. Not sure what has been happening but Wx Underground map has been a bit erratic today and wasn't showing streets/ towns,  Re-started my main browser and it fixed the issue, though some of the warmer stations had dropped a few degrees by the time everything worked again:rant: Regardless, you get the idea..

Atm ( 3:30 PM locally ) a majority of neighborhood Wx stations are still in the 78- lower 80s range with some mid/upper 80 readings, mainly around Gilbert and East Mesa where clouds aren't shading things as much as on the west side of the valley.

Chandler proper/ Wx station in Downtown Chandler
DSC00125.thumb.JPG.22bf81946bb0913ce2ac35b7fcdd5994.JPG

DSC00124.JPG.835cbbd06504c4140abfeaee7b135888.JPG


East valley overview.. Gilbert/Mesa, = upper right hand side/ Chandler Heights/part of Queen Creek, = lower right hand side
DSC00126.thumb.JPG.b7475ae5a0997c7bd34f0a4c9638b839.JPG


W. Mesa/Tempe/ areas around South Mountain
DSC00127.JPG.ce7c3099e236a3a5d361d5cfb3529191.JPG


As mentioned, will be the last warm winter day for the near term as a currently forecast storm, now centered off N. Central Baja, starts heading Northeast toward AZ. 

While not anticipating much, only up to .50" at best expected across most of town/around Phoenix, higher totals are possible down toward Tucson/ Sierra Vista ( far S. AZ ), as always, lol.. and up in the mountains where some areas could also see 1-3" of snow by Friday, we'll take anything we can get, esp. since this may be the only rainfall we see for awhile afterwards. Now up to 111 Days w/ out measurable rainfall locally. That's nothing however... If Yuma gets -any- rain, tonight/tomorrow, will be the first measurable rainfall there in ...242 days.. Yes, that isn't a typo. Think about that for a sec.  Isolated Thunderstorms are also possible across S. Central/ S. AZ tonight/tomorrow as things ramp up overnight/early tomorrow.

Temperatures drop back to the lower/mid 60s before rebounding to the upper 60s, maybe some low 70s by the start of next week. Lows also fall, but nothing crazy.. low 40s/ upper 30s, then waver through the low/mid 40s by next week.

 

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Chester B

38F degrees at 7 am, today and a thick layer of fog.  Today will be the coldest day we've had since last winter only reaching 42F.  After this we will be climbing back to the high 40's with a decent chance of precipitation each day for the foreseeable future.  December is typically our coldest month, but we still risk a blast of Arctic air in January.

Once we get past New Years temps will slowly climb over the next few months, everything weather related here happens gradually.  I swear we have 7 months of spring.

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Silas_Sancona

Always nice to wake up to the sound of rain, and that extra boost in humidity that sneaks in through an opened window.. 

As forecast, Upper Level Low off Baja made a quick track northeast overnight finally breaking our 110 day **a day less than the 111 days i'd posted earlier** streak w/ out rain here. While it wasn't much, Yuma also received just enough rain over night to break their 242 day dry streak.  Had a little of everything as the first rain band moved in around 11:30PM, Some gusty, monsoon wannabe winds.. and light Dust, and occasional flashes of / cloud bridging Lightning. Main show came through right around sunrise as the low passed directly over Phoenix.. Mainly just steady rain though.. While it is headed north atm, more showers possible thru the rest of the day. Forecast high is right around 60F but if there is more sun than clouds/showers, might tack on a couple degrees.

Cool-ish for a couple days, then back to around normal/ slightly above normal ( Highs: mid/upper 60s/70, Lows: upper 30s/40s ) going forward.. for now at least.

While not all that impressive, ( similar rainfall set ups can dump much more here ) this is a round up of rainfall totals across the region as of 8AM ( From the Flood Control District of Maricopa Co. ) Looks like i'll fall somewhere between .38"- .45" at the house.. Not a drought buster by any means, but not a total dud either. Moisture should stick around in the soil for a few days.
 


 

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IHB1979
23 hours ago, jreich85 said:

Does anyone know a good source for solid forecast predictions for FL? I follow the NWS detailed local forecast and the predictions from the local news, and they have been wrong with the temps last week and last night.

Last Wednesdays low was supposed to be 37 and I got down to 32. Last night was supposed to get down to 39, and we were also out of the local frost advisory zone. I woke up to 34 and frost so thick it looked like snow:( I’m now worried for my coconut palms (they’re potted but were not brought under cover).

I’m about 2 miles from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach and very close to the intracoastal and marsh, so have always thought that we should be the warmer part of our forecast area unless the tide is low around sunrise.

Sorry about your coconut. The NOAA zipcode forecast for your area is a good start, make sure to read the Forecast Discussion. It's more detailed and takes into account some of the local intricacies, such as which areas historically get the coldest. In my area around Melbourne, the discussion also details differences in forecast for the barrier islands compared to mainland. Chinandega81 had good advice about checking wunderground and the local temperature stations in your area.  

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PalmatierMeg

Currently 69.8F after a high of 73.4F. Low was 50.4F (forecast 48F). Forecast low tonight = 55F.

Blustery winds died down after two days and high exceeded 70F. Beautiful day.

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kinzyjr

Ended up with readings throughout the yard from 37F to 41.5F.  The airport ended up with 39F, so almost the midpoint between all of my numbers.  Did have some ice on the windshield, but it did give me a chance to see if the tree in the front was making a difference.  Looked like maybe some light frost in some areas in the front yard, but none under the perimeter of the tree canopy.  In IT terms - works as designed.

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