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Hillizard

El Niño expected later this year

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Hillizard

It's back: El Niño expected later this year, forecasters say: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-back-el-ni%C3%B1o-expected-later-this-year-forecasters-say/ar-AAyFm39

".... In the U.S., a strong El Niño can result in a stormy winter along the West Coast, a wet winter across the South and a warmer-than-average winter in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains... El Niño is a periodic natural warming of ocean water in the tropical Pacific that impacts weather in the U.S. and around the world. Globally, the climate pattern can bring dry conditions to Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia...In South America, Brazil can get drought, while Argentina may get more rain...."

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tropicbreeze

The Weather Bureau here has been suggesting possibility of a return to El Niño conditions as well. Their latest climate notes:

12 June 2018
El Niño-Southern Oscillation remains neutral

Key oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as sea surface temperature and the Southern Oscillation Index, continue at neutral levels. Hence, ENSO remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Climate models favour ongoing neutral ENSO conditions for the southern hemisphere winter, despite recent warming of parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Three of eight climate models suggest the possibility of El Niño developing in spring. Much of Queensland and the Northern Territory typically experiences drier than average conditions in the lead up to, and early part of, the northern wet season (October to April) during El Niño.

 

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Hillizard
1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

I found a pretty good article on the effects of El Nino in Florida and the southeastern US:

https://www.weather.gov/tae/enso

Kinzyjr: That's an awesome winter forecast reference w/ excellent graphs and stats!  ;)

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NC_Palms

Will this warm the Southern winters? We need an above average winter this year! 

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, NC_Palms said:

Will this warm the Southern winters? We need an above average winter this year! 

According to this link: https://www.weather.gov/tae/enso

The weather is typically cooler in El Nino years.

A map depicting El Niño impacts for the Southeast United States.

We'll see in a few months :)

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NC_Palms
1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

According to this link: https://www.weather.gov/tae/enso

The weather is typically cooler in El Nino years.

A map depicting El Niño impacts for the Southeast United States.

We'll see in a few months :)

ahhh I think La Niña is what warms up the South. 

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mdsonofthesouth

Yeah last el Nino we got record snow and it was cold! See what the garden can handle as I'm NOT making a tent this year save for the chamaerops...

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Sabal_Louisiana

This coming El Nino, if it develops, may be a bit different. They're predicting its likely to be a modoki (weak) El Nino.

While typical El Ninos may be cooler and wetter than usual in the winter-spring for the Southern US, you usually don't get bad polar outbreaks with them because the strong subtropical jet keeps them at bay. With modokis you may not get this benefit. Also modokis like to bring cold weather to the south central US.

Arctic outbreaks tend to be worse during weak La Ninas (like this past season) or ENSO neutral years, however.

At any rate, the weather patterns are so screwed up now you cant follow past events reliably as an indicator of what might happen.

Lets hope the east and the south get a break from the freakish cold and the West gets some cool and wet weather this time around.

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GottmitAlex
12 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

This coming El Nino, if it develops, may be a bit different. They're predicting its likely to be a modoki (weak) El Nino.

At any rate, the weather patterns are so screwed up now you cant follow past events reliably as an indicator of what might happen.

 

^^^THIS^^^

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Palm crazy

Here in the PNW, we have a huge deficient of rainfall this spring/summer.  We always make up a drought in the fall and winter months so its going to be very wet and maybe mild here. Extremely rainy this fall that's for sure.  :violin:

Edited by Palm crazy

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kinzyjr

A good tool to see some composite averages and comparisons for El Nino, La Nina, and neutral years.  In the case below, I used the weather station in Bartow since there wasn't one available in Lakeland.

201807221305_ElNino_LaNina_Avg.png

To use the tool, go here: http://agroclimate.org/tools/weather-stations/

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TexasColdHardyPalms

Too bad it only works for the southeast. 

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mdsonofthesouth
On 7/20/2018, 3:09:04, Sabal_Louisiana said:

This coming El Nino, if it develops, may be a bit different. They're predicting its likely to be a modoki (weak) El Nino.

While typical El Ninos may be cooler and wetter than usual in the winter-spring for the Southern US, you usually don't get bad polar outbreaks with them because the strong subtropical jet keeps them at bay. With modokis you may not get this benefit. Also modokis like to bring cold weather to the south central US.

Arctic outbreaks tend to be worse during weak La Ninas (like this past season) or ENSO neutral years, however.

At any rate, the weather patterns are so screwed up now you cant follow past events reliably as an indicator of what might happen.

Lets hope the east and the south get a break from the freakish cold and the West gets some cool and wet weather this time around.

 

I sure hope so! Winters have been pretty bad since around 2010 with some milder years here and there. 

 

On 6/18/2018, 7:42:00, kinzyjr said:

According to this link: https://www.weather.gov/tae/enso

The weather is typically cooler in El Nino years.

A map depicting El Niño impacts for the Southeast United States.

We'll see in a few months :)

 

See this map doesn’t seem to line up with the DMV last El Niño year. Not only was it cold but it was also an out of whack blizzard year. Obviously this isn’t an exact or precise map, but we sure aren’t dry or warmer than average.

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mthteh1916

Every year in the eastern US is a crapshoot, but I think you are going to see some bad or a really bad polar outbreak for one reason: The really strong negative QBO, aka, easterly QBO (which was also responsible for a cold La Nina in the SE). Currently the QBO is going even more negative. Bad bad for the eastern US. The West will be warm and dry you can count on that. They are warming along with the rest of the world much faster than the eastern US which causes the North American dipole (more cold). Everywhere on this darn globe is warming in winter except the eastern US (they call it a warming hole). Just another crappy thing Mother Nature has done to the eastern US.

 

From Wiki:

Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas westward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe.[6] In addition, the QBO has been shown to affect hurricane frequency during hurricane seasons in the Atlantic [7] and research has also been conducted investigating a possible relationship between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and the QBO.[8]

 

FYI, winter 2017 was a westerly QBO

 

Edited by mthteh1916

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Walt

Well, I moved to Highlands County, Florida, in 1997, and experienced first hand the El Nino of 1997-1998. It was a very wet winter, but I don't recall any frost that winter, let alone a freeze. I wasn't living in my current Lake Placid home, but rather in a mobile home just south of Avon Park. My wife and I bought the mobile home to live in, just to test the Florida waters, so to speak, as we weren't 100% absolutely sure would want to live here permanently. However, we soon decided we liked it here so we began our property search.

We got more than 100 property listings from a realtor, and everyday we would go check many of them out. Everywhere we went we found standing water due to all the heavy rain. I was beginning to believe about the swamp land in Florida. We couldn't find the property with house and location we liked, so we bought a raw piece of property and had a new house built on it. But the property was very wet. We decided to site our home on the highest ground of the property. When my builder came to do the perk test for our septic system, he hit the water table at only 11 inches below grade! This was due to almost unprecedented rainfall. All the lakes in the county were overflowing. Docks and piers underwater.

Once the El Nino was over the water table and lakes dropped back to normal. But the distinct thing I remember was we had no freezes that winter. I only had a cheap window thermometer on our mobile home, but I don't remember the morning low every going below the low 40s.

So, I will take a cool winter any day over some of the horrid hard freeze winters I've experienced.

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mthteh1916
20 hours ago, Walt said:

Well, I moved to Highlands County, Florida, in 1997, and experienced first hand the El Nino of 1997-1998. It was a very wet winter, but I don't recall any frost that winter, let alone a freeze. I wasn't living in my current Lake Placid home, but rather in a mobile home just south of Avon Park. My wife and I bought the mobile home to live in, just to test the Florida waters, so to speak, as we weren't 100% absolutely sure would want to live here permanently. However, we soon decided we liked it here so we began our property search.

We got more than 100 property listings from a realtor, and everyday we would go check many of them out. Everywhere we went we found standing water due to all the heavy rain. I was beginning to believe about the swamp land in Florida. We couldn't find the property with house and location we liked, so we bought a raw piece of property and had a new house built on it. But the property was very wet. We decided to site our home on the highest ground of the property. When my builder came to do the perk test for our septic system, he hit the water table at only 11 inches below grade! This was due to almost unprecedented rainfall. All the lakes in the county were overflowing. Docks and piers underwater.

Once the El Nino was over the water table and lakes dropped back to normal. But the distinct thing I remember was we had no freezes that winter. I only had a cheap window thermometer on our mobile home, but I don't remember the morning low every going below the low 40s.

So, I will take a cool winter any day over some of the horrid hard freeze winters I've experienced.

FYI that was a very strong east based Nino, which is not at all what is expected this winter. Central based in the Pacific and weak. I say another 2018 all over again.

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Sabal_Louisiana

re: ...I think you are going to see some bad or a really bad polar outbreak for one reason: The really strong negative QBO, aka, easterly QBO (which was also responsible for a cold La Nina in the SE). Currently the QBO is going even more negative. Bad bad for the eastern US ...

I took a look at the latest QBO index 

For July 2018 it shows a very low reading! (-29.1) However what are the odds it would continue to trend negative? I would be a little more worried if this was November.

Furthermore,  if values are quite negative for some time , would that GREATLY increase the odds of cold severity in the eastern US in the winter that follows? Not necessarily so.

For example, on the index above, The QBO values trended very negative during the last halves of 2005 and 2007 until and even after the end of the year. But the winters of 2006 and 2008 were not particularly cold at all. By contrast, the severe winter of 2014 (for the eastern US) had positive QBO values preceding it and during its entirety.

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kinzyjr

A potential preview of things to come?: https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2018-08-15-late-august-cold-front-cooldown-plains-midwest-south

Doesn't look like it will cool off very much in Florida, but this is awful early for cold fronts to be pushing down into the USA.  The leaves were already changing in PA during the first week of August.

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Palm crazy

Here in the PNW we are finally having a mini cool down. Only in the upper 70's today which is are normal temps but back to low 90's next week and then a mix of hot to mild temps for the rest of August. Looking forward to cooler temps in September when I can really enjoy the outdoors. Way Dryer than normal here but at least we haven't had any extreme heat like 100F on this side of the mountains. Marine air has pushed all the forest fire smoke back to the eastern side of the state. 

Enjoy those cold downs they won't last forever since it only August! 

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bubba

Mthteh 1916,

I hope you are correct. It is nice to break 50F.

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Tyrone

El Niño will spell disaster for eastern Australia coming out of winter with record drought.

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bubba

I will take last winter again this year (2018-2019). I will also take a hamburger from you today, if I can pay you next Thursday.

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Walt

In the past 21 years I've lived here in Highlands County (Lake Placid), I've had above average temperature winters, but with one, maybe two cold nights with frost that caused heavy foliage damage to my palms and tropical plants. I've had below average temperature winters, but with no freezing nights and/or frost of any consequence, and my palms and tropical plants made out fine. That's why I don't much stock in the predicted average winter temperatures.  I distinctly remember my first winter here in 1997-1998. It was cooler than average, but I can't recall any frost at all, nor damage to tender plants.
 

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mdsonofthesouth

We are already seeing lower than average temperatures and above average rain. Our average low is nearly 50 and high is 70 for October and we might see mid to high 30s later this week and our highs have been low 60s... Our 10 day looks exactly like late November early December and we will likely see one of the earliest frosts we have ever had. So much for that grass seed I put down last week...

Edited by mdsonofthesouth

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RJ
On 10/16/2018, 12:23:16, mdsonofthesouth said:

We are already seeing lower than average temperatures and above average rain. Our average low is nearly 50 and high is 70 for October and we might see mid to high 30s later this week and our highs have been low 60s... Our 10 day looks exactly like late November early December and we will likely see one of the earliest frosts we have ever had. So much for that grass seed I put down last week...

Cool season grass seed will germinate after frost, however it will certainly take longer. It'll come up next spring though. (as long as the birds don't eat it all) 

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PalmTreeDude
On 10/16/2018, 12:23:16, mdsonofthesouth said:

We are already seeing lower than average temperatures and above average rain. Our average low is nearly 50 and high is 70 for October and we might see mid to high 30s later this week and our highs have been low 60s... Our 10 day looks exactly like late November early December and we will likely see one of the earliest frosts we have ever had. So much for that grass seed I put down last week...

We are getting down to 36 one night this week here, it is getting chilly at nights! 

Edited by PalmTreeDude

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NC_Palms

 

11 minutes ago, PalmTreeDude said:

We are getting down to 36 one night this week here, it is getting chilly at nights! 

Unfortunately, this has been a below average fall for the Southeast. In Eastern North Carolina, daytime highs in the 60's with lows in the 40's are temperatures you will see in November and early December, not October!

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mdsonofthesouth
6 hours ago, RJ said:

Cool season grass seed will germinate after frost, however it will certainly take longer. It'll come up next spring though. (as long as the birds don't eat it all) 

 

Yeah I know, got some decent germination 1.5 weeks after dethatch>aerate>overseeding. I have heard that folks up north put seed down and let snow do the "work in". But tall fescue stays green 12 months out of the year in K31 variants, but other fescues struggle in the summer without irrigation or lots of rain and also proper feedings and cutting height and times. Here is the progress so far:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, PalmTreeDude said:

We are getting down to 36 one night this week here, it is getting chilly at nights! 

 

34 here...and yeah feels like late November/early December NOT October...We are mid 50s to mid 60s  with lows in the 40s. Havent broke 30s yet, but will on sunday night. I brought my seedlings indoors as I only have a few left (gave most away) and dont want to chance them. Also my yucca gloriosa just put off flower stalks which I fear will not fully bloom/not be as pretty, although they are naturalized here so I am still holding out hope. 

 

Edited by mdsonofthesouth
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RJ

Tall Fescue is probably your best bet for a low maintenance lawn. You get hot enough in the summer that a lot of cool season grasses will struggle. I used jonathan green black beauty ultra most of the time when I lived up north. 

 

e62912c0-3950-4e04-91e7-fb324cf761ac_1.a

 

I tried some tall fescue down here in my shaded spots and I can keep it looking decent till about June then it gets nuked by the heat. I haven't fallen in love with warm season grasses yet. They just feel strange under my feet when I walk on them and they mow "different" 

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RJ

BTW they have some varieties of tall fescue that will self repair now that spread via rhizomes. Normal fescue is a clumping grass and constantly needs to be overseeded. 

 

 

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mdsonofthesouth

Yeah I have at least 30% Bermuda grass so nearly half my yard is warm season. The only cool season grass that doesnt stress in summer with little to no maintenance is Kentucky 31. Even tttf will hate life if you dont irrigate and will decline in summer. I live on well with 1.6acres so irrigation, especially in summer, isnt an option. I have been toying with letting the Bermuda take over as fighting it is too expensive and too big a job and in all honestly it will just come back as it's an alpha grass and like kudzu it just spreads lol.

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PalmTreeDude
16 hours ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

 

Yeah I know, got some decent germination 1.5 weeks after dethatch>aerate>overseeding. I have heard that folks up north put seed down and let snow do the "work in". But tall fescue stays green 12 months out of the year in K31 variants, but other fescues struggle in the summer without irrigation or lots of rain and also proper feedings and cutting height and times. Here is the progress so far:

 

 

 

 

34 here...and yeah feels like late November/early December NOT October...We are mid 50s to mid 60s  with lows in the 40s. Havent broke 30s yet, but will on sunday night. I brought my seedlings indoors as I only have a few left (gave most away) and dont want to chance them. Also my yucca gloriosa just put off flower stalks which I fear will not fully bloom/not be as pretty, although they are naturalized here so I am still holding out hope. 

 

I just want my Sabal minors to seed, lol. But they are way to small for that right now... Someday... But yeah it is getting cool here, although this allows me to find some nice little microclimates (at least during the day) using a thermometer. The high today was 59 - My driveway was 68 this afternoon (it faces South and has the house to the North, it is hit by sun pretty much all day), back yard on the South side was 63, on the North side of my house where it is shady almost all day was 58, and my front yard which faces west was 64. If you have a portable and reliable thermometer,  give this a try at random times of they day over the weekend, it is pretty interesting. 

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mdsonofthesouth
4 hours ago, PalmTreeDude said:

I just want my Sabal minors to seed, lol. But they are way to small for that right now... Someday... But yeah it is getting cool here, although this allows me to find some nice little microclimates (at least during the day) using a thermometer. The high today was 59 - My driveway was 68 this afternoon (it faces South and has the house to the North, it is hit by sun pretty much all day), back yard on the South side was 63, on the North side of my house where it is shady almost all day was 58, and my front yard which faces west was 64. If you have a portable and reliable thermometer,  give this a try at random times of they day over the weekend, it is pretty interesting. 

Yeah I did this when I moved in and why I claimed the eastern and southeastern spots of my house for my future garden. The ground doesn't freeze much and gets alot of sun and blocked from the western winds (which is the worst we get in winter). 

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PalmTreeDude
17 hours ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

Yeah I did this when I moved in and why I claimed the eastern and southeastern spots of my house for my future garden. The ground doesn't freeze much and gets alot of sun and blocked from the western winds (which is the worst we get in winter). 

Got this at 6 A.M. There was patchy light frost, also at the tops of shorter pine trees. No tropicals were damaged, my Bananas and Elephant Ears are still completely fine. 

SmartSelect_20181019-154522_Gallery.jpg

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GottmitAlex
3 hours ago, PalmTreeDude said:

Got this at 6 A.M. There was patchy light frost, also at the tops of shorter pine trees. No tropicals were damaged, my Bananas and Elephant Ears are still completely fine. 

SmartSelect_20181019-154522_Gallery.jpg

That came quick.

Wow

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PalmTreeDude
21 minutes ago, GottmitAlex said:

That came quick.

Wow

Yeah it was weird. It was not a killing frost though, all of the tender plants at my house and around the neighborhood are completely fine. Last year we got our first light (but killing) frost on November 4th. 

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mdsonofthesouth

Typically we don't get frost til much later but had a light non damaging first frost friday morning with only spots of frost here and there. Early but not a full frost.

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