Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

[Moose]

3 minutes ago, Dypsisdean said:

New eruption at Leilani and Kahukai. Lower end of subdivision - looks like any lave will flow into Lanipuna subdivision. I'll post video when live feed is done.

That would be the F-5 Fissure?

[Dypsisdean]

2 minutes ago, Moose said:

That would be the F-5 Fissure?

Not sure about actual numbers anymore - or if they will call it a new fissure or not. But it (the event) has moved back down the rift.

https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1795953273790534/

[Justin]

Just saw this with my own eyes, but from the Kahukai side, and it was very tough to see through foliage.  Better views - but way less safe - down on Leilani.

[Kim]

https://www.facebook.com/lavanews/videos/vb.200106767446295/201100557346916/?type=2&theater

[Justin]

The import of this, by the way, is that Leilani Estates may now have only one entrance.  If that's the case, people in the southeast part of the subdivision will have a very difficult (if not impossible) time getting to and from their house, even if it is still there.  This sucks.

[WestCoastGal]

Thanks Dypsisdean and Kim for posting. I watched both and felt like I was there and felt like I went through the emotional wringer just watching. Powerful videos. Lifetime experience for you Justin I guess and very different from what you see at the summit or flying over Pu'u O'o. In the second video you could see the normal grassy ground and road uplifting as the lava and gases shot out. Justin are you there just for the day or are you staying at your place? I was wondering about exits out let alone trying to remember what streets are passable. So far no deaths and would hate to see someone get trapped. Stay safe. I remember hearing it had rained today and it's acid rain likely coming down (like bleach on the skin) given all the gases in the area. That plus the VOCs in the air - one set of lungs. Take care we want you to live to plant another palm another day  .

BTW I heard Lava News say that he has video (not shown) of when the fissure opened up under a house and blew it up. Don't know if you guys heard that. He wants to show the homeowners and hopefully they'll be okay letting everyone see it. Something to remember if you decide to stay in your house and a fissure opens up. Gas you, steam you, burn you or apparently blow you up. I couldn't sleep there even if the ground wasn't shaking. 

They've been saying they thought it was building up and going to go off again and it could be anywhere so were always cautioning people every day in their alerts of that. Today in that corner of Leilani a strong reminder why.

[WestCoastGal]

OK found this description of F13 and F14 on Hawaii News Now : "The new volcanic activity brings to 14 the number of fissures that have opened up in the subdivision. Hawaii County Civil Defense officials say fissure no. 13 is at Leilani Avenue and Kahukai Road, and is the outbreak that claimed a home. Fissure no. 14, meanwhile, is near Kaupili Street and Leilani Avenue." Homes claimed to lava now 27. The website has a map showing all the locations as of 14.

[O'o Bar Master]

I was in Leilani yesterday rescuing pets left behind and there was no way down to Malama on Moku thru Nohea.  Lava was flowing with "explosive" bursts that literally rocked our vehicle showering spatter down around us.

[Kim]

25 minutes ago, O'o Bar Master said:

I was in Leilani yesterday rescuing pets left behind and there was no way down to Malama on Moku thru Nohea.  Lava was flowing with "explosive" bursts that literally rocked our vehicle showering spatter down around us.

Mike, you are so compassionate. Thank you for your efforts. Was Lee with you? I miss her so much.

[Dypsisdean]

As of about 30-40 mins ago.

"Unofficially" confirmed (how's that for hedging) - huge explosion(s) behind Black Sands Subdivision - a ways from Leilani. Exposion big enough to shake house. Nothing other than the one report from Ikaika. He said his phone was ringing off the hook. 

If I am looking at the right Black Sands, then this looks close to a further, much longer extension of the established rift line. But I am very uncertain of this. And with it  so far away from all the recent action, and the 130 closed, and night coming, I'm afraid, unless they got a helicopter up quickly, information on this event (if any) will probably be not much until day break.

[Justin]

Don't mean to poke fun, but if there weren't volcanic eruptions going on, a loud explosion in Black Sands would be assumed to be a meth lab blowing up.  Not saying that's what it is, just saying that there are lots of loud explosive noises that can rattle windows and whatnot.

[Dypsisdean]

2 minutes ago, Justin said:

Don't mean to poke fun, but if there weren't volcanic eruptions going on, a loud explosion in Black Sands would be assumed to be a meth lab blowing up.  Not saying that's what it is, just saying that there are lots of loud explosive noises that can rattle windows and whatnot.

I hear you, but if I remember correctly, when looking at the earthquake map of recent days, there has also been a grouping of earthquakes down in that Kalapana area.

[Pando]

Here is an interactive Google Map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=11tCiLa42FId7GMtg-4UkEoAI9QozTVFD&ll=19.45528651396406%2C-154.9102091575806&z=14

 

[Justin]

Thanks Pando, I saw one almost just like that.  It confirms what I've worried about.  I think people in the far southeast of the subdivision can't get to their homes any more, as I read in numerous places today that the cracks on Moku and Nohea are sufficiently "sketchy" that they can't reasonably be driven over.  Now that the lower entrance into Leilani (from Pohoiki) has been covered up, there's no other way in that I can see.

[WestCoastGal]

Quick morning post, have to meet someone. I did see that USGS updated as of last night their alert. We already know about F13 and F14. They do mention geologists hearing loud jetting and booming sounds and some spattering at F13. Around 6pm the reports of booming near Black Sands Beach Subdivsion were mentioned and investigated but when they got there no sounds were heard. 

I think it was on LavaNews video post that he mentions that when the eruption is winding down in the tube that it will make a booming type sound. Not 100% sure but think that's what I came away with. If so maybe that was the cause.

Unfortunately the summit is still dropping, meaning lava is still draining from there. 

[WestCoastGal]

Took another look for updates on USGS and saw that there was more posted, including a preliminary map done by geologists on the ground of F13 and F14. From this map it appears the fissure lines are combining. Heard about this type of thing happening in the past along fissure lines and they can run great distances.

Photo: US Geological Society

Also noticed this new video was posted of F13 from above. I recall when listening to LavaNew's ground video the sound of a helicopter overhead so thinking it might have been the one filming this for USGS. Both videos combined present a more complete look at what was going on. And it appears there was much more happening off of Leilani through the woods than what LavaNews was able to see.

Video from US Geological Society:

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/multimedia_uploads/multimediaFile-1982.mp4

[WestCoastGal]

Just read some of the USGS history on the 1960 Kapoho eruption. The booming sounds from it were attributed to a fault fracture and also methane explosions. The article covers the fissure line there and fountaining that occurred. 

Hawaii News Now live is saying they just shut down access to Leilani Estates by residents this morning. No explanation given. Live coverage is probably the best source of info right now. 

Residents are also talking about the Black Sands Beach subdivision. Interview with one of the residents about what it sounded like and how the ground shook. Scientists have said there has been earth movement in the area but are at a loss to say the source of the loud sounds.

A bit more from HNN Live - Paradise Helicopters announced this month and next they are going to donate $10 a seat out of Hilo and $20 a seat out of Kona from every helicopter trip that people take on the island to go towards relief efforts. Discounts will be given to Leilani residents who want to go up and survey their property, subject to official approvals.

[WestCoastGal]

Board is quiet this morning, understandable after the latest updates. Assume people still want info posted. Hawaii News Now had said this morning that they had evacuated everyone from Leilani. Does anyone know if that means everyone including Ikaika and those who have remained? If so we may be hard pressed to get much more news from inside than the regular USGS and Civil Defense updates. I recall reading yesterday that they were prohibiting aircraft/drones from flying over the area unless authorized.

Mick Kalber's Vimeo account is blank. Not sure what that means. As mentioned before he has a house in Leilani. 

USGS posted updated maps as of last night 5/8. Below is the one showing the decent lines. Both show past flows.

US Geological Society map:

[Kim]

This sounds very serious

HVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice

Volcano: 

Kilauea

 (VNUM #332010)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING

Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Issued: Wednesday, May 9, 2018, 8:02 AM HST
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number

Location: N 19 deg 25 min W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1247 m) 

Area: Hawaii 

Volcanic Activity Summary:
The steady lowering of the lava lake in “Overlook crater” within Halemaʻumaʻu at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano has raised the potential for explosive eruptions in the coming weeks. If the lava column drops to the level of groundwater beneath Kīlauea Caldera, influx of water into the conduit could cause steam-driven explosions. Debris expelled during such explosions could impact the area surrounding Halemaʻumaʻu and the Kīlauea summit. At this time, we cannot say with certainty that explosive activity will occur, how large the explosions could be, or how long such explosive activity could continue. 

Residents of the Kīlauea summit area should learn about the hazards of ashfall, stay informed of the status of the volcano and area closures, and review family and business emergency plans.

Resource on volcanic ash hazards:  https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanic_ash/

Remarks:

 HAZARDS

Primary hazards of concern should this activity occur are ballistic projectiles and ashfall. 

 

BALLISTIC PROJECTILES

During steam-driven explosions, ballistic blocks up to 2 m (yards) across could be thrown in all directions to a distance of 1 km (0.6 miles) or more. These blocks could weigh a few kilograms (pounds) to several tons.

Smaller (pebble-size) rocks could be sent several kilometers (miles) from Halemaʻumaʻu, mostly in a downwind direction.

 

ASHFALL

Presently, during the drawdown of the lava column, rockfalls from the steep enclosing walls of the Overlook crater vent impact the lake and produce small ash clouds. These clouds are very dilute and result in dustings of ash (particles smaller than 2 mm) downwind.

Should steam-driven explosions begin, ash clouds will rise to greater elevations above ground. Minor ashfall could occur over much wider areas, even up to several tens of miles from Halemaʻumaʻu. In 1924, ash may have reached as high as 20,000 feet above sea level. Small amounts of fine ash from these explosions fell over a wide area as far north as North Hilo (Hakalau), in lower Puna, and as far south as Waiohinu.

GAS

Gas emitted during steam-drive explosions will be mainly steam, but will include some sulfur dioxide (SO2) as well. Currently, SO2 emissions remain elevated.

 

WARNING TIME

Steam-driven explosions at volcanoes typically provide very little warning. Once the lava level reaches the groundwater elevation, onset of continuous ashy plumes or a sequence of violent steam-driven explosions may be the first sign that activity of concern has commenced.

 

BACKGROUND

Kīlauea’s lava lake began to drop on May 2, 2018. From its peak on May 2 to the most recent measurement at 9 pm on May 6, the lava lake surface dropped a total of more than 200 m (656 ft). The subsidence was at a relatively constant rate of about 2 meters (yards) per hour.

Measurements of subsidence have not been possible since May 6 because of thick fume and the increasing depth to the lava surface. However, thermal images indicate continued lowering of the lake surface since that time, consistent with deflationary tilt recorded at Kīlauea’s summit. Therefore, we infer that the lake surface continues to drop at roughly the same rate. So, while HVO cannot report exact depths of the receding lava lake, we can monitor the overall trend.

USGS and HVO scientists are monitoring changes at the summit 24/7 and watching for signs that hazardous conditions have increased, or may increase. HVO is working closely with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and Hawai‘i County Civil Defense to respond to this situation.

[WestCoastGal]

Big Island Now has this article just published this morning and updated 9:05am HST just 10 minutes ago. USGS warns lowering of the Lava Lake may be a precursor to explosive eruption. Very well could by why access to Leilani was cut off this morning. Warnings in the article of ballistic projectiles and ashfall. Probably want to read if you are in the area.

http://bigislandnow.com/2018/05/09/puna-update-may-9-6-am-fissures-continue-to-release-toxic-gas/

Kim, I see we both saw the news. Very troubling for all in the area. The Big Island Now article has more info than just the USGS warning BTW.

Someone posted a video yesterday not sure if on here or saw it elsewhere, but showing a crack in the ground with lava spewing not far off to the side in a forested area. What struck me was that they showed inside the crack they were at and water was flowing. I had wondered if maybe a water pipe had broken and was feeding into the lava flow which will promote steam. The water looked to be flowing rather fast. Wish I would have commented on it at the time. I'd have no idea where to even look for that video now. 

Can someone with facebook check to see if Ikaika is posting anything. I saw him yesterday at the Info Supply Center during some coverage. Justin, are you still around there?

[Kim]

There are no water pipes underground in Leilani. Everyone is on rain catchment (collection of rainwater from roof to tank, then pumped into house on demand). So maybe it was not water you were seeing in the video? I don't recall seeing this video.

I saw on Hawaii News Now they were letting people into Leilani again, but it's difficult to sort out the time of each video posted to FB.

[WestCoastGal]

This from HNN earlier morning broadcast live, the State Dept of Defense confirms that everyone has been evacuated safely from Lanipuna Gardens. The news team reported on their trip inside the development yesterday and interviewed Susie Osborne who was in the process of packing things up. She said all of a sudden the cracks on both sides of her house went from 2 inches wide to 12 inches wide and 8 feet deep and she could hear the rumbling and that was on either side of her house. She and the news crews took off at that point. Here's the image they showed of the crack. Easy to see why people were becoming more concerned about driving in the area trying to reach their homes.

Kim that's interesting on the water issue. It was definitely water flowing in the video because they did a close up of it. I know it rained yesterday and the land does slope down at that southeastern corner. Wonder if it could have just been accumulated rain water finding it's way into the forming cracks.

[bgl]

Debbie, do you know the location of the crack with the possible broken water pipe? As Kim mentioned, no water pipes in Leilani Estates (other than from the roof on a particular property to the catchment tank on the same property) but all county roads have county water pipes along the roads.

[Dypsisdean]

Debbie - I assumed the water flowing was just rainwater, as there were several downpours in that area around the time of the video.

I don't see any new postings from Ikaika.

One posting regarding the lava lake drop and steam explosions added the following. During the event in 192? the lake was dropping at a faster rate. Apparently this difference may be key in preventing such a large event - but again as with everything going on, there is a lot of uncertainty. But at the present rate, if consistent, it will reach ground water in 8 days.

[Jelf]

Hello Everyone,

I am the guy that produced the Google + GIS map that Dypsisdean posted on p.5 of this thread.  Thanks to D for posting.  Here is the current map link:

https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php?ll=19.464020,-154.913968&z=14&t=t6,Mandatory_evacuation,Lava_flow_outline_5_5_2018,Lava_flow_outline_5_6_2018,Lava_flow_outline_5_7_2018,Lava_flow_outline_5_8_2018,Roadblock,Fissure&q=https://mappingsupport.com/p/disaster/2018/hawaii/hawaii_volcano_eruption_v3.txt

Note that the link has "v3" near the end.  The eruption data you see on the map is hosted on the Hawaii County GIS (Geographical Information System) server.  The address of that data on the server has changed and as a result earlier versions of my map link open and display the basemap but the eruption data never appears.

Also, the county GIS server is quite busy so even using the above link it might take a minute or so for the data to fully appear on the map.

Finally, there is a "Map tips" link in the upper left corner.  That link leads to the map legend and has other useful information to help you get the most benefit from the map.  Want to turn on other GIS overlay layers?  Want to change which layer is on top?  Want to make your own custom map link?  Please read the tips to find out how to do those things and more.

 

[WestCoastGal]

8 minutes ago, bgl said:

Debbie, do you know the location of the crack with the possible broken water pipe? As Kim mentioned, no water pipes in Leilani Estates (other than from the roof on a particular property to the catchment tank on the same property) but all county roads have county water pipes along the roads.

No and it's going to bug me which video I was watching. I'll try going through my web history this afternoon. I'd like to find it if I can. Kind of along the lines of what Kim was saying about videos being tagged with date/time it would be nice if people who did recording also gave some directional location information. I really appreciated when LavaNews included which way down Leilani the camera was focused when he was capturing F13 and then he spun around and showed the end of Leilani at Pohoiki. 

[WestCoastGal]

Just a heads up. Watching Hawaii News Now live feed (1:20pm PDT) and a story coming up is an interview with a Leilani resident who refuses to leave. Wonder if this will be Ikaika? NOPE. Scott Wiggers who's done some videos and photos. Think he said he lives on Kuhukai (forgot how far away from current fisssures--broadcast is live so can't go back) and is afraid if he leaves they won't let him back in so he's staying. 

[Pando]

I saw that video also. It was the one where the guy got real close to a crazy evil breathing blowtorch in the bushes right next to the road, and he panned down and showed water running in the crack a few feet deep. I'll find it in a minute.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Pando

[Moose]

This may be the beginning of an increased series of events. Hopefully this is not the case.

One has to wonder where all the magma material is going from the dropping lava lake?

 

 

 

[WestCoastGal]

Pando, Yep! that's exactly what I recall. Do you remember which video though?

[Pando]

Just now, WestCoastGal said:

Pando, Yep! that's exactly what I recall. Do you remember which video though?

I'm trying to find it now. Will take a bit of time, have to go thru them.

 

[Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)]

1 minute ago, Pando said:

I'm trying to find it now. Will take a bit of time, have to go thru them.

 

Here it is:  https://www.newsflare.com/video/202918/conflict-disaster/lava-and-steam-spew-from-side-of-cracked-road-in-hawaii#

[WestCoastGal]

5 minutes ago, Moose said:

This may be the beginning of an increased series of events. Hopefully this is not the case.

One has to wonder where all the magma material is going from the dropping lava lake?

The volume of Pu'u O'o and the summit, which is still dropping, has got to be massive. I think I saw a table maybe yesterday that showed the estimated volume of past eruption flows. And it does have to go somewhere. I'm wondering if it's traveling underground past Leilani now and whether they have sensors that can sense the movement. If it's back up hard not to believe it won't come out through Leilani where there are open fissures. If it's moving onward underground then which direction? 

[Pando]

2 minutes ago, Keith in SoJax said:

Here it is:  https://www.newsflare.com/video/202918/conflict-disaster/lava-and-steam-spew-from-side-of-cracked-road-in-hawaii#

That's the one, thanks Keith!

[Dypsisdean]

Slight correction - short update video from Ikaika this morning concerning reports of explosions at Black Sands last night.

https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1796223517096843/UzpfSTEwMDAwMTI3NjM1MTAxNzozMDYwNjExMjk0OTk0MTQ6MTA6MDoxNTI3ODM2Mzk5Oi0xNDM1ODEwMTgzNTUyODY0NDI5/

[Moose]

Not sure if they can physically force someone to leave. We always have those who refuse to leave mandatory evacuation zones during hurricanes.

"Officials" do inform those who refuse that they are on their own. That no rescue will be attempted, no first responders will come.

They would have to act totally irrational and emanatingly endangering themselves to get baker acted.

[WestCoastGal]

Just watched Ikaika's update video. I'm pretty sure I recognize Lance from maybe this morning's HNN early morning broadcast on the Black Sands development. The person talked about the sounds and the shaking and how some items fell in his place. They are located along 130 so given they have closed 130 in a few places along it's length checking on cracks, totally believable something is going on past the Ala'ili subdivision and that small development near Pele's Breath & Steam Vent Inn area.

BTW Hawaii News Now after commercial break and maybe weather is going to show the video of Susie Osborne and the wide crack outside her house I mentioned above. Update: just showed.

[WestCoastGal]

Dypisdean how bad is the VOG where you are at? Been hearing it's getting worse and the tradewinds are going to die down this weekend.

[WestCoastGal]

Question on HNN. So how hot is lava (and magma is what's underground, lava on surface)? According to USGS you can gage it by the color: if red, up to 1400F; if orange, up to 1800F; if yellow, up to 2200F. Magma in the tubes, about 2200F.

[WestCoastGal]

New photo from short explosion at the summit (8:27am HST). Ash deposits had fresh lava so they said the lava lake had not reached the water table yet which they were able to observe an hour later. 

Photo: US Geological Society