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Morabeza

Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

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bgl
5 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

. The geology is fascinating and that image Begaye evoked, well pretty emotive.

The geology is indeed fascinating, and even though the most recent lava flows in the Leilani Estates area probably happened about 200-300 years ago, this is of course but a blink of the eye in geological terms. Anyone buying property in, for instance, Leilani Estates, which is Lava Zone 1, is made aware of this risk. Statistically, the risk of lava covering a particular piece of property in one's lifetime in Zone 1 is estimated at something like 4%. Of course, if that "4 %" happens to be RIGHT NOW, then that means trouble, and unfortunately that would seem to be the case for some property owners, especially in the lower (eastern) part of Leilani Estates. But the bottom line, which is important for anyone buying property in Zone 1 to understand, that buying here is the same as taking a significant risk. Quite a few people were surprised back in 2014 about the events then, and many of them sold and moved back to the U.S. mainland. These were generally individuals who had bought property quite recently, and clearly had not mentally accepted the concept that it could all be gone in a worst case scenario with a lava flow. I think those who remained in the area after the 2014 events are generally also the ones who fully understand the dangers and the implications of living on top of an active volcano and we are the ones who accept those conditions for living in a beautiful and otherwise serene area. "Serene" is of course not exactly the word that comes to mind right now, but at some point it will revert to that. When? I wish I knew! :)

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WestCoastGal

Thanks Bo. I followed the thread here on that 2014 march to downtown (and as I recall loved your photos during that time including the recycling center's miraculous save from the lava). OK so that was due to draining from Pu'u O'o then. Does Kilauea summit feed Pu'u O'o then if you know or is that traveling in a different direction and more southwestward? Been a really long time since we were at the Visitor Center.

 

On a more positive note, saw how people can help those affected by donating to the Red Cross. I'm sure lots of people left their homes with little belongings given the rapid development of the fissures and mandatory evacuation order, and it doesn't sound like they are letting anyone back in to retrieve anything*.  http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38119223/heres-how-you-can-donate-to-those-impacted-by-the-kilauea-eruption . I'm not sure if you don't live in the area that the info there will work. Their online donate area doesn't specifically let you donate to this disaster so maybe better off calling the Hawaiian Red Cross at the number shown or there is a form on the Red Cross site where you can list "Other" and specify, but you'll need to send a check in using that method.

*just heard Mayor Kim say that they were going to work with people to go back into their homes and stay if they absolutely want to. The sulfur dioxide fumes could make that difficult or impossible for some.

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WestCoastGal

Hawaii News Now's live feed has an interview right now with USGS at the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/category/198303/livestream

They lead into it by saying that the rather dramatic drop at the Summit is concerning. Discussing the Leilani Estates area.  Did hear them say that the Summit does have a relationship to the rift zone. They were able to detect the movement in that direction. After the 6.9 there were 8 aftershocks at the summit recorded above 4+ The USGS personnel said that the level of the lake had dropped and wasn't visible from the Jaggar Museum but still could be seen from some of their equipment. Very interesting interview although they held it outside of the park along Rt. 11 so a lot of traffic noise. A reporter had asked for concerned citizens in Leilani and nearby if these fissures would develop into vents like Pu'u O'o for example and expressed that there was a lot of concern about something like that. The response was that no but the flow of lava could increase and move more rapidly as it spread out. I was hoping this segment would be available as a video on their site but not seeing it at present. 

More from Hawaii News Now - The lava in Pu'u O'o had dropped 600 ft. Rainfall could have sulfur dioxide in it (acid rain) and you'd want to wash your skin off to avoid irritations. Just noticed the update on their site that now lava has claimed 5 homes.

Hawaii News Now is off air now.

 

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PalmTreeDude
On 5/3/2018, 8:31:20, bgl said:

Yep, here's the crack. I just walked over there and took a few photos. And it is almost exactly right on the extension of the property line. Those are Kim's Neoveitchia storckii in the background. And Meg, and for those who are not familiar with the local situation here: Leilani Estates is situated entirely on top of the East Rift Zone, leading out from Kilauea (active since 1983) and the current eruption at the Pu'u O'o vent, in an easterly direction and extending out beyond Kapoho, below the ocean floor. Kapoho is where Pauleen Sullivan created her palm garden. What this means - we LIVE ON TOP of one of the world's most active volcanoes.B) And "terrifying" doesn't sound good to me. I prefer "exciting". Has a more positive ring to it. :mrlooney:

DSC_0004.JPG

That's crazy that you guys live by all this! Stay safe. 

Edited by PalmTreeDude

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colin Peters

I was in our living room with my son and he was like it that an earthquake, and stuff started shaking more and more. So they are

being felt up the island chain as well.  Everyone be safe over there. 

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Kim

@WestCoastGal, we are appreciating your updates. We are collecting information from many sources, and the idea is sinking in that we may be unable to return to our homes for possibly months or longer. We have heard of at least one home in Leilani that had shattered windows and lots of damage from the 6.9 earthquake -- and we have no way to know the condition of our own houses. 

While I always knew this was possible, it's hard not knowing what the damage is, or how long this will continue, or how bad it will get for those higher uphill in the subdivision.  Thus any tidbits of information help to tamp down the anxiety, even if the news is bad. It's better to know than to not know. We are keeping busy doing other things, but the unfolding drama is always in the back of our minds, and I, at least, am feeling somewhat distracted. 

Thank you for your commentary and links. 

 

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Gtlevine

You are extreemely fortunate to have a beautiful home in San Diego for you and Bo to sit it out. I hope when this passes you can go back and not have any damage. I remember looking for property too in Leilani and like Bo says, there is a risk you need to accept to live in that paradise. But there is risk anywhere you live. In San Diego i lived through the fires in 2007. But we got through it and eventually you guys will as well, im sure. Its good thinking to have bought on higher ground, liquids generally take the path of least resistance, lets hope your place will be safe. 

Gary

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Gtlevine

Maybe when this is over i can buy my property in Leilani and join the crowd, timing is everything right?

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Kim

Thanks for your kind words, Gary. It is true, risk is all around us, even if not perceived. The lava risk was clear, but intangible. Now it is tangible. We are looking at our futures through different lenses now. And if all settles down, yeah! Bargain prices in Leilani Estates.  I should check Zillow, see what the "adjustment" has been. :lol:

 

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WestCoastGal

Kim, thanks for the post. I actually debated on if I should post links to stories I was coming across, thinking maybe it would be viewed negatively because much of it wasn't necessarily good news and not about my own neighborhood. I also thought people like me, not from the area, might want to know what's going on there and it can be time-consuming to wade through all the stories many of which are retreads from other sources. I know Leilani Estate is a rather large community. Hope you see some of your neighbors you know mentioned in the stories and know that they are okay. We've had forest fires on both sides of the valley we are in and I know from that that people just want to know how their neighborhood is doing. My husband had plans away from the house today so have had time on the computer :D. One last media linking, the LA Times and NY Times both featured resident stories.

I'm not on facebook but if you are, are you following Ikaika Marzo and John Kapono Carter who both seem to be sitting tight? I do worry about those staying behind from the standpoint that a fissure could errupt near their house and the gases would overpower them or they may find the roads blocked when they do try to get out.

BTW ran across the talk from USGS Tina Neal that I referenced above when I watched it on Live Stream earlier today:

What with Vanuatu being evacuated of all its residents due to volcanic activity, Japan's Mt. Ioyama erupting first time in 250 years, both within the last few weeks or so it does give pause as to whether the Pacific Coast here will experience increased earthquake activity being part of the Ring of Fire.

Funny you mentioned Zillow. On Thursday when I was searching for news once I learned what was happening, I clicked on a link to Zillow for Leilani Estates area and while there were many empty lots listed for sale, there were also a couple of homes up to half mil+ listed. When I looked at the list dates, some were very recent and before the eruption. Two large homes were on Kaupili above Leilani Street so right in that area of the fissures. Looking at zillow now I can tell a number of listings are now gone and I'm only seeing one now on Kaupili. The second home that's gone from the listings had the most gorgeous double front door (probably someone's dream home). While some listings may be second homes or vacation homes, I'm sure many belong to full-time residents who have no other place to go and to which my heart really goes out to. 

 

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Hilo Jason
4 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

Kim, thanks for the post. I actually debated on if I should post links to stories I was coming across, thinking maybe it would be viewed negatively because much of it wasn't necessarily good news and not about my own neighborhood. I also thought people like me, not from the area, might want to know what's going on there and it can be time-consuming to wade through all the stories many of which are retreads from other sources. I know Leilani Estate is a rather large community. Hope you see some of your neighbors you know mentioned in the stories and know that they are okay. We've had forest fires on both sides of the valley we are in and I know from that that people just want to know how their neighborhood is doing. My husband had plans away from the house today so have had time on the computer :D. One last media linking, the LA Times and NY Times both featured resident stories.

I'm not on facebook but if you are, are you following Ikaika Marzo and John Kapono Carter who both seem to be sitting tight? I do worry about those staying behind from the standpoint that a fissure could errupt near their house and the gases would overpower them or they may find the roads blocked when they do try to get out.

BTW ran across the talk from USGS Tina Neal that I referenced above when I watched it on Live Stream earlier today:

What with Vanuatu being evacuated of all its residents due to volcanic activity, Japan's Mt. Ioyama errupting first time in 250 years, both within the last few weeks or so it does give pause as to whether the Pacific Coast here will experience increased earthquake activity being part of the Ring of Fire.

On Thursday when I was searching for news once I learned what was happening, I clicked on a link to Zillow for Leilani Estates area and while there were many empty lots listed for sale, there were also a couple of homes up to half mil+ listed. When I looked at the list dates, some were very recent and before the eruption. Two large homes were on Kaupili above Leilani Street so right in that area of the fissures. Looking at zillow now I can tell a number of listings are now gone and I'm only seeing one now on Kaupili. The second home that's gone from the listings had the most gorgeous double front door (probably someone's dream home). While some listings may be second homes or vacation homes, I'm sure many belong to full-time residents who have no other place to go and to which my heart really goes out to. 

 

I greatly appreciate all the links you are posting. Thank you for doing that and please continue to as you have the time. While I am just up the road in Hilo, I am staying away from the Pahoa area as to give emergency responders and locals from the area the space they need to navigate this situation.   So even though I am close I am reading and watching all the news online just like you are.  

 

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Dypsisdean

This impressive video gave me a newly appreciated perspective of the severity of the situation. I don't think I need to comment, other than to say in the longer version you could hear the photographer crying as he described this "river" of lava moving down Leilani Ave near the bottom where it makes the bend. 10am this morning.

Ikaika just reported he heard of "major cracks" on Hwy 130 between Malama and Leilani - upslope of the subdivision. That would be very serious if true and these developed into another fissure. He did not yet personally confirm - so let's hope it's a false alarm. He also said that the eruption has stalled, but based on earthquake data, expected more to come.

https://www.newsflare.com/video/203000/conflict-disaster/leilani-avenue-lava-river-eruptions-hawaii-may-5th-10-am

 

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mike in kurtistown

I wonder why an elegant neighborhood like Leilani Estates would be located in the center of a rift zone. Speculation -- it didn't start as an elegant, desirable neighborhood, but way back when was a poor folk's part of Hawaii before developing its present ambiance.

 

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Dypsisdean
21 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

Kim, thanks for the post. I actually debated on if I should post links to stories I was coming across, thinking maybe it would be viewed negatively because much of it wasn't necessarily good news and not about my own neighborhood.

Debbie, your links and info are valuable. I have found some good info by perusing them. Keep it up. PalmTalk is becoming a good source for information. Since it is difficult to get in and get close, any info is good info - as Kim said.

I heard as of this morning that the electricity is now out. And I think they said for all of Leilani. So as Kim mentioned, even if safe from the lava, after the earthquake there is no telling the condition of individual houses. If roofs or windows sustained damages, rainy weather will be a problem. And refrigerators and freezers with warm days and no electricity will not be pleasant. I can't imagine the anxiety that any homeowner must be going through.

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WestCoastGal

Dypsisdean if Ikaika's info on 130 is correct, I hope he's getting out of there along with anyone else. And that is much farther west than anything so far. If he loses access to exit on 130 and Pohoiki Road is closed (not sure where the fissures are there, I don't see from the map where there are any other road exits out of there. Makes me wonder if this is lava from Pu'u O'o (took Monday-Thursday to appear) or the summit which might have been a larger volume.

After watching Travis' video and noticing the two lane road which in his description he indicates is Leilani Avenue for scale, both of us are in shock. Can understand why that reporter asked that question of USGS Tina Neal. Not sure if this was in the info I linked to or not but one source I read had said that they thought two of the fissures had joined, not sure where that was at though.

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Dypsisdean
11 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

Dypsisdean if Ikaika's info on 130 is correct, I hope he's getting out of there along with anyone else. And that is much farther west than anything so far. If he loses access to exit on 130 and Pohoiki Road is closed (not sure where the fissures are there, I don't see from the map where there are any other road exits out of there. Makes me wonder if this is lava from Pu'u O'o (took Monday-Thursday to appear) or the summit which might have been a larger volume.

After watching Travis' video and noticing the two lane road which in his description he indicates is Leilani Avenue for scale, both of us are in shock. Not sure if this was in the info I linked to or not but one source I read had said that they thought two of the fissures had joined, not sure where that was at though.

Apparently there is a lot of false information being floated around from various "unofficial" sources. And some people getting extremely upset by it. So, it is important to remember this. But so far this Ikaika guy has been fairly credible for an "unprofessional" - but not perfect.

I think there is a dirt road along the coastline that had begun to be worked on when it looked like the previous flow was going to cut off 130. I heard it is in rough shape now, but passable. However, with any amount of traffic it will be sketchy - but doable as a safety valve and lifeline with some quick work from the county.

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WestCoastGal

I remember reading about that road when they were first starting to work on it after the 2014 flow subsided. Was very challenging work for the crews.

I do remember one of the officials, maybe Civil Defense, saying that they had crews out with breathing apparatus on, searching for newly opened cracks so they could be monitored and charted. He also commented as I recall that having to be suited up like that just to be around the area, would more or less preclude anyone thinking of going in to break into homes from doing that.

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WestCoastGal

USGS said they would try to update their maps twice a day if possible. I noticed from Big Island Video News's site that new maps showing the 8 fissures had been put up on USGS's site. I'll link to it as there's a chance people might have trouble getting onto the USGS's map area (I know I did a number of times). The map is delineated as Sat. May 5, 10am. The aerial video they have on the site is from Friday and taken by Hawaii's Air National Guard and has very good resolution of the ground. One of the better aerial videos I've seen albeit not the most current. 

If you are able to get to the USGS maps area: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/multimedia_maps.html, you'll see the same map on the above site plus elevation decent paths which I think were helpful during the 2014 flow. In addition there is satellite imagery indicating the streets and where the lava flow currently existed at that time. Individual map links mentioned above are linked to the higher resolution images of the maps BTW. Should give everyone a much better picture compared to the dots on the map.

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Dypsisdean

Not good news - half hour ago - another two fissures have opened up. There is some incredible nightime footage (from Ikaika) of one of them (the ninth overall) on Luanna - on the Malama side of Leilani Ave. And the tenth one is apparently higher up still. No location yet given.

Bottom line is these two new fissures are more in the direction leading to the "heart" of the subdivision and appear to be stronger. :(

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WestCoastGal

Not good but from what I've been hearing and reading not unexpected I guess. For those of us that don't have facebook, can you post the link to his video since his facebook page isn't made public? Thanks.

The elevation decent map would appear to flow to the other side of the Puna Geothermal power plant (which would be located on that map where the E in East Rift Zone is printed), which would be good. I know this is all very unpredictable as we've seen in the past however. Fissures 5, 6 and 8 are fairly close to the plant on the map however and if you look at the satellite map there does appear to be an almost straight line from 2 to 6.

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Dypsisdean

Sorry - don't think I can - it is uploaded to FaceBook and all the share options are only within FaceBook. But here is a screenshot from that one. The second eruption mentioned is on Kupono, also on the Malama side of Leilani. He is live with it now. I have not yet watched this one.

This is the one on Luana. Apparently bigger and more lava.

31945790_2095943040421322_8059664653891928064_o.jpg

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WestCoastGal

Crap just looked those new street locations up on google maps and they are moving westward but maybe in a retreating path back towards Pu'u O'o?

BTW I've been able to watch a few facebook videos (including Ikaika's) posted on other news sites and the URL is of just from that video. Is that something you can grab?

I just checked the USGS photo chronology section and they have that image on Luana posted along with a few other new images from today that I haven't seen yet. The panoramic of Leilani to Makamae showed an example of how nearby streets can be cut off. The photos can be zoomed into. Really sad to make out driveways and mailboxes.

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Dypsisdean

Here's the URL - let me know if you can view.

But yes - very ominous - the one on Kupono is about 1/3 mile Malama side of Leilani. I think that is getting closer and closer to Bo and Kim. :(

If you can view, I will also post the Kupono eruption. Not as dramatic as this one on Luanna.

https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1793190404066821/?hc_ref=ARS1-SZWy2qnhQd9Xbw71BIjfmiiXHHi_h3BjCW1GHqV5QGZoqUuKbzizNDXKroacJE

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WestCoastGal

Yes, it's viewable! Thank you. Will watch before heading to bed.

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WestCoastGal

Wow, I guess I'm glad he said he's with USGS there and hopefully that means he might be wearing correct protective breathing gear. I remember from my visit to HVNP that apart from the sulfur dioxide being dangerous to breath in, the particulate matter from the ash is something you don't want to get in your lungs, etc. Shards of glass comes to mind.

I wonder what the sort of chirping sound was from that I was hearing in the second video. Maybe sensors for sulfur dioxide? I actually found that video, while shot at more of distance, to be the more interesting. Did you notice the guy who came out from the "flame" area towards him? Maybe a USGS volcanologist wearing one of those special heat suits? I can't imagine how else someone could have seemingly emerged from that close to the flow.

Thanks again DypsisDean for posting both of those. I really need to call it a night but still hard to close the laptop. Madame Pele is sure mesmerizing, powerful and something to be respected. 

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Cindy Adair

The links here are amazing. And scary. And sad. 

I must admit I did a double take when I heard the coqui frogs on the last video.

It is dawn here in Puerto Rico (so the frogs are quiet), but it made it seem even more real sharing the same night chorus.

The world seems smaller.

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Morabeza

I feel awful for the residents of Leilani Estates. I had a dream last night that the Palm Society organised a rescue transplantation mission for the rarest palms in Leilani gardens. Of course I hope that these palm gardens remain untouched, but I wonder if it came down to it, would it even be feasible for owners to go back in to dig up irreplaceable rarities with the evacuation order?

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bgl

Dean and Debbie, thanks for all the links and information. What seems to be clear is that this is all very fast moving. That doesn't mean it may be over soon, though. Quite the opposite is definitely a strong possibility. What's fascinating is to look at the locations of all the eruptions up to this point. There is a very clear line going NE to SW. If that line is extended in a southwesterly direction it "exits" Leilani Estates right around the southern end of Kumakahi, just south of the Malama & Kumakahi intersection. Unfortunately, that is also EXACTLY where my old property is located. Five acres and 5,000 palms. Karolyn (KPL here on PalmTalk) still owns the place but has of course evacuated. My property on Pomaikai Street and Kim's on Moku Street (adjacent to each other) are north of Leilani Avenue and would actually be a good distance away from the extension of the current "eruption line". And "good distance" in this case meaning a bit more than half a mile. As of right now I don't believe there's such a thing as "good news" or even "potentially good news". Even if the eruptions were to stop as of right now, they can easily resume tomorrow, or next week, or next month. That's the unpredictability of volcanoes, and I think it's wise to prepare oneself for the very strong possibility that Leilani Estates as a viable residential neighborhood is a very unlikely outcome in the immediate future, and maybe not for many years.:(

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Keith in SoJax

Bo, we’re hoping Pele finishes her landscape plan quickly so you, Kim, and all of our other palm growing friends impacted by her construction project can get back to your homes and gardens.  The most important thing is to stay safely out of her way.  

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Gtlevine

Are all the road and ground cracking due just to the earthquakes or are they an indication of impending lava eruption sites?

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bgl

Thank you Keith, we are certainly hoping for that as well but also prepared for the eventuality that we are just at the beginning of this eruptive event of Kilauea. And Gary, the answer is apparently "both". Many of the cracks are "innocent" in the sense that they are just the result of the earthquakes and they are not going to open up into new fissures. But some of them will. Looking at the map of the fissures that have opened up so far, it's possible to see a trend, and even though the volcanologists themselves have a hard time predicting what's going to happen next, it's probably more likely than not that future eruptions will happen through cracks that are along the current "line of eruptions" and on the likely extension of that line.

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Keith in SoJax

Bo, i’m nothing but an armchair observer, but it seems like the fissures sometimes form as the “Roof” of a lava tube melts, or collapses allowing lava to flow over the surface, kind of like how water escapes from a garden hose when you slice it with a mower.  So if those tubes are fairly straight, the eruptions would be in a straight line.  Maybe the lava sometimes simply flows along cracks that form due to pressure pushing up from below, and/or cracks caused by the earthquakes.  It seems like a lot of magma shifted around the system in the last week or two.  Hopefully much of it is exiting far downslope well below the surface of the pacific.  

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WestCoastGal

Cindy, feeling silly this morning reading your post :rolleyes:. Of course, croqui frogs! and nice way to subtly bring them up. Kind of embarrassed as a forum member as I've read about them being on the main island for sometime now but just never heard them myself as they weren't there when we visited the area. duh. At least my "sensor alert" suggestion was creative!

Off for breakfast soon but I did check USGS, no new map updates yet. Kind of wanted to see the placement of the new fissures on the map to confirm "the line". USGS did add a new alert as of late last night Hawaii time:

"The intermittent eruption of lava in the Leilani Estates subdivision in the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano continues. Fissure 7 stopped erupting in mid-afternoon. A new fissure erupted this evening near fissures 2 and 7, and lava fountains reached as high as about 70 m (230 ft). Early this morning, new ground cracks were reported on Highway 130, but no heat or escaping steam was subsequently observed.

Seismicity and deformation are consistent with continued accumulation of magma within the rift zone."

So it does confirm what had been reported coming from Ikaika about 130 :(. Guess now that we know he's with USGS down there in the neighborhood we can feel his info is pretty solid. And that news about 130 isn't good considering the USGS indicated deformation in the area is likely due to more magma, so I'm assuming a stronger possibility of a fissure there. Wonder where on 130 and if it falls in line with the pattern we've seen within Leilani Estates. Didn't Ikaika give some guidance on that last night?

Did notice in the above report the height of the fountaining which I highlighted above. Isn't that higher than most other fissure reports of just a hundred or so feet? Really haven't been keeping track. And I still wonder if the draining summit flow could have reached the area yet since it's drop didn't happen until the 6.9 earthquake (and knowing the Pu'u O'o took several days from it's emptying). I still have my doubts about whether the flow at the other end near the Puna Geothermal plant has been stalled due to some cooling in the tube as I think only one recent fissure report came from that area. Love to hear the geologists thoughts on that. 

 

 

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Phil

Bo, Kim, JD and any others who live in harm's way:

I send my deepest sympathies and concerns to all who have had their lives disrupted by this event.
I am very impressed and proud of how most of you are doing with what's happening. 
I hope it resolves with no loss of life and minimal loss of property and gardens.

Stay safe!
 

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PersistentPalms

Been very preoccupied the past couple years but still think about Palmtalk occasionally....  Definitely worrying about my Leilani freinds the past week, glad to hear y'all are safe.  No surprise to see Bo on videos in the action!  Looks like Tutu is going to stay around for a while, please be safe all.  Hope your properties and belongings fair well. Pules and aloha.

IMG_0525.JPG

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WestCoastGal

USGS has updated their maps as of 6a.m Sunday 5/6 now showing Fissures 9 & 10. Here's a link to just the higher resolution Fissure Map, and here's one to their Descent Path Maps. No updated Satellite version which show the map with fissure/lava overlay. With #10 on the border of Leilani Estates near the intersection of Pomaikai St and Malama St, maybe this will be her exit out of the development. 

The good news from what I can tell by looking at the various USGS maps and google maps is that Bo and Kim's property looks to be in the clear (well as far as fissures and flow) and #10 looks to be 2 streets to the right of where Karolyn's property is (Bo's old property) so still a good distance. 

I did read that on the StarAdvertiser that as of 8:40am HST today (Sun 5/6) 9 homes are confirmed a loss. I do wonder if these are actually homes or include structures. Hard to find info on this. Good news for Leilani Estates residents between Hwy 130 and Maile Street, they've been allowed to go in between 8am and 6pm today only to retrieve pets and some things left behind, conditions permitting. Residents in Lanipuna Gardens however cannot return yet due to gas levels. Believe from what I understood from Bo that this area would include the area around Phohoiki Road near the Monika Mac Nut location, Hinalo Street and Lauone St (130 lots mostly 1 acre and in Lava Zone 1). The Puna Geothermal plant would border the area to the north of it.

I've seen only a few earthquakes registered by USGS today and look to be a quieter day. Hopefully a more peaceful night.

 

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bgl

Thanks Phil and Bill for the kind words! :) And Debbie, Kim and I also just saw that latest map with #9 and #10, which pretty much confirms the "straight line" theory, and if correct then future eruptions are likely to be south, and outside, of Leilani Estates. #10 is right smack on the corner of Pomaikai and Malama (and I turn that corner every single day on my morning walk - well, I USED to do that! :o Things are likely to be different... ). Anyway, next street over (to the west, and left of Pomaikai) is Alapai and then Kumakahi. My old five acre property is on the southeast corner of the Malama & Kumakahi intersection. Extrapolating from the map and the existing ten fissures, #11 MIGHT happen just to the south of my old garden, but possibly not in the garden itself. Still, much too close and with fires spreading quickly and easily from a fissure, pretty much anything can happen in the immediate area. The indirectly good news (if there's such a thing a "good news" in the current scenario) is that most of upper Leilani Estates does not seem to be directly at risk. That includes my property and Kim's property.

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Kim

I got an update from Civil Defense that homeowners on the very westernmost street will be able to return to their homes for a brief period to pick up pets, important documents, etc. This is great news for Justin who will be able to check out the condition of his house. If that goes smoothly perhaps people from the next street can then go in, and so on, as long as a street is considered mostly safe. Of course all sorts of dire warnings were given along with the okay to return briefly. 

The new breakouts are all falling in a definite pattern forming a diagonal line across Leilani, adhering to the pattern of the ridge. As someone else said, "only fools predict lava flows" but we can see a pattern that would take the newer breakouts outside Leilani... maybe... But then those lines of steepest descent run right through my property. So who knows?

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Justin
23 minutes ago, Kim said:

I got an update from Civil Defense that homeowners on the very westernmost street will be able to return to their homes for a brief period to pick up pets, important documents, etc. This is great news for Justin who will be able to check out the condition of his house. If that goes smoothly perhaps people from the next street can then go in, and so on, as long as a street is considered mostly safe. Of course all sorts of dire warnings were given along with the okay to return briefly. 

The new breakouts are all falling in a definite pattern forming a diagonal line across Leilani, adhering to the pattern of the ridge. As someone else said, "only fools predict lava flows" but we can see a pattern that would take the newer breakouts outside Leilani... maybe... But then those lines of steepest descent run right through my property. So who knows?

Flying out there today, hoping to visit home tomorrow.  Fingers firmly crossed.

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